共查询到19条相似文献,搜索用时 78 毫秒
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我国服务业结构与经济增长的实证研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
服务业的发展水平是衡量生产社会化程度和市场经济的重要标志,将服务业分为现代服务业和传统服务业,基于1978-2007年的统计数据,采用协整关系检验和格兰杰因果关系检验对服务业结构与经济增长关系进行实证分析.结果表明现代服务业、传统服务业和经济增长之间存在长期稳定的关系,但服务业内部结构发展不平衡,并对服务业结构的调整提出政策建议. 相似文献
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基于1996-2013年莆田市旅游业收入与地区GDP的相关数据,研究莆田市旅游业的发展与区域经济增长的关系.考虑到这些数据是时间序列数据,首先对这些序列进行平稳性分析,然后应用协整理论和Granger因果检验进行实证研究,并且建立了误差修正模型.结果表明,莆田市旅游业的发展与区域经济增长存在着长期稳定的关系和单向的Granger因果原因,即区域经济带动旅游业的发展影响较小,而旅游业的发展促进区域经济发展的影响较明显. 相似文献
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对我国高等学校1978年-2009年在校大学生、在岗教师、生师比值等时序数据进行单位根检验、结构突变的单位根检验、协整检验等,得出我国高等院校在校大学生数与在岗教师数、生师数比值是结构突变的趋势平稳序列,在校大学生数与在岗教师数之间无协整关系.在岗教师数相对于在校大学生人数的增长滞后3-4年. 相似文献
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外商直接投资与我国经济增长关系的协整分析 总被引:11,自引:0,他引:11
本文通过协整检验和误差修正模型,利用1984-2003年的数据,对外商直接投资与我国经济增长关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国经济增长与外商直接投资之间存在长、短期稳定的正向关系。通过Granger因果关系检验,外商直接投资是中国经济增长的Granger原因,而反之却不成立。 相似文献
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运用协整理论和格兰杰检验,对甘肃省1995-2009年间的固定资产投资与GRP的数据进行分析研究,结果表明两者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,甘肃省目前的固定资产投资与GRP存在双向因果关系,这说明甘肃省固定资产投资明显拉到了经济增长,而经济增长对投资的发展也起了显著的促进作用. 相似文献
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利用中国统计年鉴中1949-2016年有关中国人口的数据,研究了全面二孩政策对中国人口产生的一个脉冲突变,建立了具有脉冲的Richards人口增长模型,并且利用数值模拟方法研究2016年中国人口增长的脉冲突变,并且预测了中国人口的发展趋势和中国人口的峰值. 相似文献
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本文针对沈阳市最新的人口"六普"数据,采用描述统计的方法多维度分析了沈阳市人口现状及变化特点;采用ADF平稳性检验和Johansen协整检验方法研究了人口与经济发展之间的长期协整关系;运用向量误差模型(VEC)分析了短期内的人口因素变化对经济发展的影响;通过脉冲响应函数(IRF)分析了人口因素变化对于区域消费和收入响应的敏感程度。结果表明,沈阳市正处于人口红利末期与老龄化初期并存的发展关键阶段,人口因素无论长期还是短期,对于区域经济增长都有显著的正向影响,并且消费支出和人均收入对于人口因素短期内的冲击十分敏感。 相似文献
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新疆少数民族人力资本通过内部作用和外溢作用已经成为地区经济增长的主要推动力,同时经济的不断增长又为少数民族人力资本不断发展提供了强有力的支持.运用计量经济学中协整分析、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验等方法对1980年-2010年新疆相关数据进行实证分析.研究结果表明,4类少数民族人力资本都是新疆GDP增长的Granger原因,经济增长是高等教育人力资本的Granger原因. 相似文献
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本文利用Malthus生物总数增长定律以及Verhulst生物总数增长统计筹算律[1][2],对我国人口的发展情况进行检验、分析和予测. 相似文献
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J.J. Shepherd A. Stacey T. Grozdanovski 《Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences》2012,35(2):238-248
We apply a multiscale method to construct general analytic approximations for the solution of a power law logistic model, where the model parameters vary slowly in time. Such approximations are a useful alternative to numerical solutions and are applicable to a range of parameter values. We consider two situations—positive growth rates, when the population tends to a slowly varying limiting state; and negative growth rates, where the population tends to zero in infinite time. The behavior of the population when a transition between these situations occurs is also considered. These approximations are shown to give excellent agreement with the numerical solutions of test cases. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability - In this letter, we test a scalar stochastic nonlinear equation used to portray the growth of a population with Allee effects. We first testify... 相似文献
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We use a metaphysiological approach, recently proposed by one of us (WMG), for modeling trophic interactions to develop a model of limpet-algae-kelp dynamics using data obtained by the others (RHB and GMB) from studies along the west coast of South Africa. We test whether the model is able to predict limpet population growth reasonably well in both the presence and absence of kelp and over a range of limpet and algal population densities. We then discuss the development of a limpet fishery, suing the model to predict limpet stand growth under various harvesting regimes. We compare our results to those obtained by others using a classical size-structured approach, and we suggest how both approaches can be combined to obtain a more reliable and applicable model than either on its own. 相似文献
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While in exogenous growth models demographic variables are linked to economic prosperity mainly via the population size, the
structure of the workforce, and the capital intensity of workers, endogenous growth models and their successors also allow
for interrelationships between demographic variables and technological change. However, most of the existing literature considers
only the interrelationships based on population size and its growth rate and does not explicitly account for population aging.
The aim of this paper is (a) to review the role of population size and population growth in the most commonly used endogenous
economic growth models, (b) discuss models that also allow for population aging, and (c) sketch out the policy implications
of the most commonly used endogenous growth models and compare them to each other. 相似文献
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We study the effects of advection along environmental gradients on logistic reaction-diffusion models for population growth. The local population growth rate is assumed to be spatially inhomogeneous, and the advection is taken to be a multiple of the gradient of the local population growth rate. It is also assumed that the boundary acts as a reflecting barrier to the population. We show that the effects of such advection depend crucially on the shape of the habitat of the population: if the habitat is convex, the movement in the direction of the gradient of the growth rate is always beneficial to the population, while such advection could be harmful for certain non-convex habitats. 相似文献
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In this paper, first we consider model of exponential population growth, then we assume that the growth rate at time t is not completely definite and it depends on some random environment effects. For this case the stochastic exponential population growth model is introduced. Also we assume that the growth rate at time t depends on many different random environment effect, for this case the generalized stochastic exponential population growth model is introduced. The expectations and variances of solutions are obtained. For a case study, we consider the population growth of Iran and obtain the output of models for this data and predict the population individuals in each year. 相似文献
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ABSTRACT. This paper investigates theoretically to what extent a nature reserve may protect a uniformly distributed population of fish or wildlife against negative effects of harvesting. Two objectives of this protection are considered: avoidance of population extinction and maintenance of population, at or above a given precautionary population level. The pre‐reserve population is assumed to follow the logistic growth law and two models for post‐reserve population dynamics are formulated and discussed. For Model A by assumption the logistic growth law with a common carrying capacity is valid also for the post‐reserve population growth. In Model B, it is assumed that each sub‐population has its own carrying capacity proportionate to its distribution area. For both models, migration from the high‐density area to the low‐density area is proportional to the density difference. For both models there are two possible outcomes, either a unique globally stable equilibrium, or extinction. The latter may occur when the exploitation effort is above a threshold that is derived explicitly for both models. However, when the migration rate is less than the growth rate both models imply that the reserve can be chosen so that extinction cannot occur. For the opposite case, when migration is large compared to natural growth, a reserve as the only management tool cannot assure survival of the population, but the specific way it increases critical effort is discussed. 相似文献