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1.
本文主要研究一类考虑随机投资收益和相依索赔额的时间依赖的更新风险模型.在该模型中,保险投资收益服从指数Lévy过程,而索赔额服从具有独立同分布步长的单边线性过程.该单边线性过程的步长与索赔到达时间构成独立同分布的随机向量序列,并且该随机向量的分量之间具有运用步长关于索赔到达时间间隔的条件尾概率渐近性刻画的相依关系.当单边线性过程的步长服从重尾分布时,本文得到该更新风险模型破产概率在时间域内的一致渐近估计.  相似文献   

2.
本文研究了重尾相依风险模型,其中索赔额是一列上广义负相依随机变量,索赔时间间隔是—列广义负相依随机变量,并且两个序列是相互独立的,得到了保险公司最终破产概率的渐近结果。并且利用中国人民财产保险股份有限公司2008年的重大赔付数据,对该公司的最终破产概率进行了实证分析。  相似文献   

3.
本文研究了具有双相依结构及重尾索赔噪声项的离散时间风险模型的有限时间破产概率.在该模型中,索赔额服从具有独立同分布噪声项的单边线性过程;保险公司的风险投资和无风险投资导致的随机折现因子与单边线性过程的噪声项相依.保险公司单期保费收入是恒定的常数,当单边线性过程的噪声项服从重尾分布时,本文得到离散时间风险模型有限时间破产概率的渐近估计.最后利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法验证所得结果.  相似文献   

4.
设索赔来到过程为具有常数利息力度的更新风险模型.在索赔额分布为负相依的次指数分布假定下,建立了有限时间破产概率的一个渐近等价公式.所得结果显示,在独立同分布索赔额情形,有限时间破产概率的有关渐近等价公式,在负相依场合依然成立.这表明有限时间破产概率对于索赔额的负相依结构是不敏感的.  相似文献   

5.
本文考虑了两类时间相依且带常利率和常值保费收入率的更新风险模型的无限时绝对破产概率, 其中索赔额及其到达时间间隔构成独立同分布的随机对列, 以及每个随机对遵循某种相依结构. 基于此, 当索赔额分布属于R-∞∩J(γ), γ > 0 分布族时, 我们分别得到了两类时间相依结构下的无限时绝对破产概率的渐近公式和渐近上界.  相似文献   

6.
刘荣飞 《应用数学》2017,30(2):284-290
本文研究一类具有相依索赔及重尾索赔噪声项的离散风险模型有限时间破产概率.在该模型中,索赔额服从具有独立同分布噪声项的单边线性过程;由保险公司的风险投资和无风险投资导致的随机折现因子与单边线性过程的噪声项相独立;保险公司的保费率是恒定的常数.当单边线性过程的噪声项服从重尾分布时,本文得到该离散风险模型有限时间破产概率的渐近估计.  相似文献   

7.
考虑保费随机收取,且索赔过程是保费收取的稀疏过程的二维风险模型,在索赔额的分布是一致变化尾分布并且copula相依时,得到其总索赔和总盈余过程随机和的精细大偏差,推广了相关文献的结论.  相似文献   

8.
本文研究一类基于保单进入过程的风险模型,客户在其保期内可索赔多次.假设每个顾客的索赔额是宽负相依的且服从重尾分布,不同顾客之间的索赔额是相互独立的.本文得到了损失过程的大偏差.  相似文献   

9.
研究一类具有利率和相依索赔额的离散风险模型.在模型中,索赔额服从具有独立同分布步长的单边线性过程,贴现因子具有关于利率与时间的一般函数形式.在步长服从重尾分布的条件下,得到了最终破产概率的渐近估计.并通过具体实例分析利率对破产概率的影响.  相似文献   

10.
重尾索赔下的一类相依风险模型的若干问题   总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0  
高珊  孙道德 《经济数学》2007,24(2):111-115
本文研究了重尾索赔下的一类相依风险模型,得到了破产概率的尾等价式及索赔盈余过程大偏差的渐近关系式.在该模型中,一索赔到达过程是Poisson过程,另一索赔到达过程为其p-稀疏过程.  相似文献   

11.
In this study, we investigate the tail probability of the discounted aggregate claim sizes in a dependent risk model. In this model, the claim sizes are observed to follow a one-sided linear process with independent and identically distributed innovations. Investment return is described as a general stochastic process with c`adl`ag paths. In the case of heavy-tailed innovation distributions, we are able to derive some asymptotic estimates for tail probability and to provide some asymptotic upper bounds to improve the applicability of our study.  相似文献   

12.
This paper investigates the finite-time ruin probability in the dependent renewal risk model, where the claim sizes are independent and identically distributed random variables with strongly subexponential tails, and the interarrival times are negatively dependent. We establish an asymptotic estimate, which holds uniformly for the time horizon varying in the positive half line.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, we present the classical risk process with two-step premium function. This means that the gross risk premium rate changes if the insurer’s surplus reaches a certain threshold level. The formula for the infinite-time ruin probability is obtained. The asymptotic behaviour of the ruin probability in the case where the claim size distribution has a light tail is considered as well.  相似文献   

14.
15.
Appell polynomials are known to play a key role in certain first-crossing problems. The present paper considers a rather general insurance risk model where the claim interarrival times are independent and exponentially distributed with different parameters, the successive claim amounts may be dependent and the premium income is an arbitrary deterministic function. It is shown that the non-ruin (or survival) probability over a finite horizon may be expressed in terms of a remarkable family of functions, named pseudopolynomials, that generalize the classical Appell polynomials. The presence of that underlying algebraic structure is exploited to provide a closed formula, almost explicit, for the non-ruin probability.  相似文献   

16.
In the compound Poisson risk model, several strong hypotheses may be found too restrictive to describe accurately the evolution of the reserves of an insurance company. This is especially true for a company that faces natural disaster risks like earthquake or flooding. For such risks, claim amounts are often inter‐dependent and they may also depend on the history of the natural phenomenon. The present paper is concerned with a situation of this kind, where each claim amount depends on the previous claim inter‐arrival time, or on past claim inter‐arrival times in a more complex way. Our main purpose is to evaluate, for large initial reserves, the asymptotic finite‐time ruin probabilities of the company when the claim sizes have a heavy‐tailed distribution. The approach is based more particularly on the analysis of spacings in a conditioned Poisson process. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, we construct a risk model with a dependence setting where there exists a specific structure among the time between two claim occurrences, premium sizes and claim sizes. Given that the premium size is exponentially distributed, both the Laplace transforms and defective renewal equations for the expected discounted penalty functions are obtained. Exact representations for the solutions of the defective renewal equations are derived through an associated compound geometric distribution. When the claims are subexponentially distributed, the asymptotic formulae for ruin probabilities are obtained. Finally, when the individual premium sizes have rational Laplace transforms, the Laplace transforms for the expected discounted penalty functions are obtained.  相似文献   

18.
We consider a suitable scaling, called the slow Markov walk limit, for a risk process with shot noise Cox claim number process and reserve dependent premium rate. We provide large deviation estimates for the ruin probability. Furthermore, we find an asymptotically efficient law for the simulation of the ruin probability using importance sampling. Finally, we present asymptotic bounds for ruin probabilities in the Bayesian setting.  相似文献   

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