灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的改进及应用

应用自动寻优定权的方法和最小二乘法,研究了灰色系统理论中灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的预测公式的形成过程,发现灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在形成预测公式时对背景值和初始值的规定是不尽合理的,且现有的改进方法对灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的改进还不尽完善.为了提高灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,提出并使用自动寻优定权对背景值进行选择,基于最小二乘法原理对灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的初始值进行改进.实例结果表明,提出的改进方法是有效和完善的,对灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的预测精度也有较大的提高.     

对白化方程优化的一类新信息灰色GM(1,1)模型研究

通过对一类灰色GM(1,1)模型中的白化方程进行优化,同时利用灰色系统理论中的新信息原理,得到了一种改进的灰色GM(1,1)模型.最后,实例分析结果表明,该改进模型具有更高的预测精度和实用性.     

甲型H1N1流感传染人数的灰色预测模型研究

就我国甲型H1N1流感传染人数的预测运用灰色系统理论建立了GM(1,1)模型和1阶残差修正模型GMε(1,1),并分别作了精度分析研究了GMε(1,1)的变化趋势,提出了临界值和有效域概念.用MATLAB确定了模型参数及模型预测值.     

一类GM(1,1)模型白化方程的优化

利用灰色模型的指数特性,对一类灰作用量优化的GM(1,1)模型,通过积分构建合适的背景值,并把白化方程中灰作用量b_1+b_2t改进为(b_1+0.5b_2)+b_2t,同时采用灰色系统理论的新信息原理,进而得到优化的GM(1,1)灰色模型.实例计算表明改进模型具有良好的模拟预测精度,特别对于指数序列模拟和预测精度几乎达到100%,对指数序列来讲是一种比较优秀的拟合和预测模型.     

基于新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的中国煤炭消费量预测分析

运用灰色系统理论,以中国2002-2012年的中国煤炭消费量建立了GM(1,1)和新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型.使用相对误差和残差平方和对两个模型的精度进行检验,对比表明,新陈代谢模型精度高于常规的GM(1,1)模型.使用平均弱化缓冲算子来表示能源政策对煤炭消费量的冲击,应用处理后的新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对2015-2017年的煤炭消费量进行了预测.     

GM(1,1)模型适用域讨论及模型的改进

在已有灰色系统理论的基础上,讨论了GM(1,1)模型的适用域,明确界定了GM(1,1)模型的有效区域和禁区,并提出了GM(1,1)模型的一种改进形式——离散灰色预测DGM(1,1)模型.通过对我国经济增长的实证分析说明了该模型的有效性和可靠性.研究结果表明,提出的DGM(1,1)模型可作为灰色预测的一种精确模型,因此,为我国经济增长预测提供了一种新的方法,对当前我国经济的理性增长具有重要的指导意义.     

基于改进的GM(1,1)-Markov链组合模型广东省单位GDP能耗预测

本文以灰色系统理论的GM(1,1)模型和随机过程理论的Markov链模型为基础构建了一个动态GM(1,1)-Markov链组合预测模型。该模型同时利用了GM(1,1)模型对序列趋势因素良好的拟合能力和Markov链模型对残差序列信息的提取能力。为进一步提高该模型的预测精度,用泰勒(Taylor)近似方法和新信息优先的思想对该模型进行了改进。最后,以1991-2014年广东省单位GDP能耗数据实证了该模型的预测效果。     

改进的GM(1,1)幂模型的构建与应用

在构建GM(1,1)幂模型中,经常利用一阶非齐次线性方程的常数变易法求得GM(1,1)幂模型白化方程的解,再利用白化方程,在灰色系统信息覆盖原理下经过离散化处理推导出参数γ的计算公式,并利用最小二乘法求解参数a,b.但是在求解过程中由于离散化的处理,造成了时间响应预测函数精度的下降。为了弥补精度下降的缺陷,对于预测模型利用PSO算法进行了系数修正.案例对比研究发现,传统的GM(1,1)预测效果最差,改进的GM(1,1)幂模型预测效果最好.     

基于动态无偏灰色马尔科夫模型的煤炭需求量预测

煤炭消费系统是一个复杂的非线性系统,具有随机性、非线性、动态性等特点,科学地预测煤炭消费量及其结构对于优化配置能源有重要意义.传统的单一预测方法预测精度较低.在对陕西省煤炭消费历史数据分析的基础上,构建了煤炭消费总量的GM(1,1)模型、灰色GM(1,1)预测模型和动态无偏的马尔科夫结构预测模型.拟合结果表明,动态无偏灰色马尔科夫模型既能消除传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的固有偏差,又能提高预测精度,其平均相对误差为2.10%,分别低于传统灰色GM(1,1)模型和一般灰色马尔科夫模型的17.37%和6.37%,可用于煤炭需求的预测,在此基础上对陕西省2017-2025年煤炭消费进行了预测,为未来能源消费发展规划提供依据.     

改进灰导数的GM(1,1)幂模型

为了提高灰色GM(1,1)幂模型的拟合精度,讨论了灰色GM(1,1)幂模型灰导数的白化问题.以白化微分方程为基础,利用梯形公式白化灰导数,得到了改进的GM(1,1)幂模型.实例分析结果表明改进的GM(1,1)幂模型具有更高的预测和拟合精度.     

Convergence in measure and in category,similarities and differences

Convergence in category of a sequence of real-valued functions has been introduced by E. Wagner as an analogue of convergence in measure. In the paper it is shown that in some circumstances both kinds of convergence behave similarly, but sometimes the behaviour is different.     

Ideals and clots in universal algebra and in semi-abelian categories

We clarify the relationship between basic constructions of semi-abelian category theory and the theory of ideals and clots in universal algebra. To name a few results in this frame, which establish connections between hitherto separated subjects, 0-regularity in universal algebra corresponds to the requirement that regular epimorphisms are normal; we describe clots in categorical terms and show that ideals are images of clots under regular epimorphisms; we show that the relationship between internal precrossed modules and internal reflexive graphs extends the relationship between compatible reflexive binary relations and clots.     

Positron annihilation in annealed and quenched teflon and in sulphur

The value (τ₂) and the intensity (I₂) of the delayed component in the lifetime spectra of positrons annihilating in annealed and quenched teflon and in sulphur and crystex (polymer sulphur), at room temperature and at 77° K are reported. These data and the X-ray diffraction patterns for these materials are discussed in terms of the free volume model for the formation and quenching of positronium atoms in molecular materials.     

Points and triangles in the plane and halving planes in space

We prove that for any setS ofn points in the plane andn ^3−α triangles spanned by the points inS there exists a point (not necessarily inS) contained in at leastn ^3−3α/(c log⁵ n) of the triangles. This implies that any set ofn points in three-dimensional space defines at most halving planes. Work on this paper by Boris Aronov and Rephael Wenger has been supported by DIMACS under NSF Grant STC-88-09648. Work on this paper by Bernard Chazelle has been supported by NSF Grant CCR-87-00917. Work by Herbert Edelsbrunner has been supported by NSF Grant CCR-87-14565. Micha Sharir has been supported by ONR Grant N00014-87-K-0129, by NSF Grant CCR-89-01484, and by grants from the U.S.-Israeli Binational Science Foundation, the Israeli National Council for Research and Development, and the Fund for Basic Research administered by the Israeli Academy of Sciences.     

Change of velocity and ergodicity in flows and in Markov semi-groups

Let {T(t)}_t0 be a strongly continuous semi-group of Markov operators on C(X) with generator G. If mC(X) is strictly positive, mG generates a semigroup. If {T(t)} is a group given by a flow, m may have isolated zeros and, under some regularity conditions, mG will still generate a flow, constructed explicitly. The connection between some ergodic properties of the new and original flow is studied. For the Markov semi-groups, the new one is strongly ergodic if and only if the original one is strongly ergodic.Our thanks to Howard Levine for pointing out the literature on multiplication perturbations of semi-group generators and to the referee whose comments enabled us to considerably shorten the argument for Theorem 2.1(b).Research partly supported by NSF grant GP 34118     

Instabilities in elastomers and in soft tissues

Biological soft tissues exhibit elastic properties that canbe dramatically different from rubber-type materials (elastomers).To gain a better understanding of the role of constitutive relationshipsin determining material responses under loads we compare threedifferent types of instabilities (two in compression, one inextension) in hyperelasticity for various forms of strain-energyfunctions typically used for elastomers and for soft tissues.Surprisingly, we find that the strain-hardening property ofsoft tissues does not always stabilize the material. In particularwe show that the stability analyses for a compressed half-spaceand for a compressed spherical thick shell can lead to oppositeconclusions: a soft tissue material is more stable than an elastomerin the former case and less stable in the latter case.     

Reduction and realization in toda and volterra

We construct a new symplectic, bi-Hamiltonian realization of the KM-system by reducing the corresponding one for the Toda lattice. The bi-Hamiltonian pair is constructed using a reduction theorem of Fernandes and Vanhaecke. In this paper we also review the important work of Moser on the Toda and KM-systems.