认股权证的保险精算定价

引入Mogens Bladt和Tina Hviid Rydberg在无市场假设下关于期权定价的保险精算方法,利用公平保费原则和价格过程的实际概率测度,建立认股权证的定价模型,并给出定价公式.当投资者对原生资产期望回报率为无风险利率时,该定价为风险中性价格.     

简单可转换债券的定价——一种鞅方法

可转换债券作为债券和期权的混合体,其定价比债券和期权的定价都要复杂.本文用鞅方法讨论可转换债券的定价问题,给出了便于计算的类似于Black-Scholes模型的定价公式.但我们利用鞅方法使定价模型的推导更自然.基于这一定价模型,可转换债券的价格可分解为转换期权的价格和简单债券的价值之和.     

一般均衡下基于产品市场和资本市场的单名CDS定价

次贷危机呼吁新的信用衍生品定价模型, 因此为存在产品市场和资本市场的经济结构建立一般均衡的单名CDS定价模型, 使用最优化求解一般均衡下的商品价格和CDS价格. 可以发现一般均衡的CDS定价具有资本市场和产品市场的因素, 这表示CDS的价格不再是由单纯的资本市场因素决定的, 而是由无风险利率、资本产出弹性、违约率、回收率同时决定的. 通过数量约束用模拟的方式研究多个均衡的动态变化, 发现违约风险的增加使得价格剧烈波动且市场交易萎缩. 在为以中国工商银行为参考资产的CDS定价过程中, 发现各种因素在不同的时期都可能成为定价的主要影响因素. 可以发现, 次贷危机的定价体系存在着信用调整问题和定价与实体经济脱节的问题. 可以认为, 一般均衡下基于产品市场和资本市场的单名CDS定价可以囊括多个市场的交叉影响, 为衍生品定价提供一个新的方向.     

认股权证的修正精算定价研究

基于修正Bladt和Rydberg在无市场假设下关于期权定价的保险精算方法的基础上,从评估实际损失和相应概率分布角度,利用公平保费原则建立认股权证的定价模型,并给出定价公式.且当投资者对原生资产期望回报率为无风险利率时,该定价为风险中性价格.     

基于LSMC模型的煤炭资源价值定价研究

煤炭资源价值定价可以抽象为一种美式期权定价问题.最小二乘蒙特卡洛模拟(LSMC)方法是解决美式期权定价问题的一个有效途径.详尽地分析了Cortazar等人的基于资源价格、利率和便利收益随机变动的三因素定价模型,利用向量Ito定理提出了三因素模型中价格、利率和便利收益变量的递推公式.对LSMC方法原理进行了细致的阐述,总结出实现LSMC方法的完整过程,并在Matlab环境下编制了LSMC算法实现程序,进行算例计算.算例结果表明,LSMC方法用于资源定价是有效可靠的.研究为煤炭资源价值定价提供了一个完整具有可操作性的工具.     

应急物资费用定价水平影响因子敏感性问题研究

分析影响因子对应急物资费用定价的敏感度有利于寻找定价管理的薄弱环节,降低整体运作费用.定性分析并绘制应急管理过程中物资定价水平因果关系图,确定影响应急物资定价的关键因子,利用多项式回归模型拟合费用定价水平,通过综合考虑影响因子的波动区间和变化概率,结合应用敏感性分析与统计分析测算各影响因子的敏感性系数,针对敏感度大的因子实施重点控制,进而提高费用控制效率,降低应急物资运营成本,为进一步制定出精细化、动态化的应急物资定价标准提供基础.通过算例分析验证了方法的科学性和可行性,能够为应急管理物资定价问题提供借鉴意义.     

跳-扩散碳排放市场模型下的碳配额价格与期权定价

研究碳排放市场中碳配额价格与期权定价的相关问题.通过引入基于跳-扩散过程建模碳排放量过程与相应的违约事件.利用风险中性定价理论,刻画碳配额期货价格公式.最后,研究以期货合约为标的资产的欧式期权定价问题.     

两阶段双寡头垄断市场Hotelling定价模型

激烈的双寡头垄断市场竞争环境下,单一定价和歧视定价成为厂商选择的两大定价策略.考虑到网络外部效用的广泛存在性与对称性,对传统的Hotelling模型加以改进,分价格竞争和策略选择两个阶段,对双寡头垄断厂商的定价策略进行了博弈分析,指出了各种均衡情况及需满足的条件,并验证了歧视定价相对单一定价的边际成本、网络外部效应、消费者对产品的忠诚度等因素对厂商进行定价策略选择的重要影响,为其制定最优定价策略提供了指导.     

空间众包环境下的任务定价模型研究

在综合考虑平台、商家和会员三方相互作用的基础上,通过建立包含任务动态分配机制的动态规划模型,结合金融定价思想刻画任务定价问题,并通过空间可视化对珠三角地区劳务众包平台数据进行实证研究.为提高模型的实用性,利用K-means聚类分析对任务打包并引入激励规则对动态定价模型进行了改进.最后,通过模拟仿真得出改进后模型的任务完成率为88.10%,相比平台现有定价模型(62.50%)和改进前的动态定价模型(85.20%)任务完成情况有较大幅度的提升.为基于地理位置的服务平台的商品定价、以及地理位置信息与平台会员的关系等实证和应用研究提供了理论与实践参考.     

考虑用户沟通成本的物流服务团购策略

根据客户参加团购的成本不同将客户分类(个体型和团体型),从而得到物流服务商不同的定价策略及最优解,并进一步将结果进行比较得出最优决策.研究结果表明:只有当个体型客户规模较大时,团购定价才是可行的.同时两类客户的沟通成本差异较为明显时,商家使用团购定价使得收益明显增加,团购组合定价才是最优策略.农村物流的市场特征恰好符合这团体型客户少,客户之间的沟通成本差异较大的特征.最后采用数值算例展示了农村物流服务商家采用团购定价能给企业带来更大的收益,进一步验证了上述结论.从而为物流服务商提供一种定价方法,也为农村物流服务的发展创造条件.     

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In this paper, we extend the previous Markov-modulated reflected Brownian motion model discussed in [1] to a Markov-modulated reflected jump diffusion process, where the jump component is described as a Markov-modulated compound Poisson process. We compute the joint stationary distribution of the bivariate Markov jump process. An abstract example with two states is given to illustrate how the stationary equation described as a system of ordinary integro-differential equations is solved by choosing appropriate boundary conditions. As a special case, we also give the sationary distribution for this Markov jump process but without Markovian regime-switching.     

Optimal dividend policy when risk reserves follow a jump–diffusion process with a completely monotone jump density under Markov-regime switching

The paper studies optimal dividend distribution for an insurance company whose risk reserves in the absence of dividends follow a Markov-modulated jump–diffusion process with a completely monotone jump density where jump densities and parameters including discount rate are modulated by a finite-state irreducible Markov chain. The major goal is to maximize the expected cumulative discounted dividend payments until ruin time when risk reserve is less than or equal to zero for the first time. I extend the results of Jiang (2015) for a Markov-modulated jump–diffusion process from exponential jump densities to completely monotone jump densities by proving that it is also optimal to take a modulated barrier strategy at some positive regime-dependent levels and that value function as the fixed point of a contraction is explicitly characterized.     

Estimation for jump processes in the tangent bundle of a Riemann manifold

A stochastic process is formulated in the tangent bundle of a Riemann manifold where the vector fibre portion of the process is a jump process. Since the tangent spaces change as the process in the base manifold evolves, it is necessary to define a jump process in the fibres of the tangent bundle with respect to the process in the base manifold. An estimation problem is formulated and solved for a process obtained from the jump process in the fibres of the tangent bundle where the observations include the process in the base manifold and the jump times. Since each fibre of the tangent bundle is a linear space, a suitable modification of some results for estimation in linear spaces can be used to solve the aforementioned estimation problem.Research supported by NSF Grants ENG 75-06562 and MCS 76-01695 and AFOSR Grant 77-3177.     

跳过程μ正则性和不变测度存在性

本文给出了一般状态跳过程μ正则的充分条件,作为其推论得到跳跃链常返的跳过程是μ正则的,证明了跳跃链常返的跳过程,其q对的不变测度是跳过程的不变测度.还证明了跳跃链常返的跳过程存在唯一的不变测度.     

Representation results for jump processes with application to optimal stopping

It is shown that functions, measurable on the past of a jump process up to a stopping time, can be expressed as functions of the jump times and jump locations up to the stopping time. These results lead to formulas for conditional expectations with respect to the past of the process up to the stopping time. The use of these results is illustrated in giving a sufficient condition for optimality for optimal stopping of a partially observed jump Markov process.     

Dam processes with state dependent batch sizes and intermittent production processes with state dependent rates

We consider a dam process with a general (state dependent) release rule and a pure jump input process, where the jump sizes are state dependent. We give sufficient conditions under which the process has a stationary version in the case where the jump times and sizes are governed by a marked point process which is point (Palm) stationary and ergodic. We give special attention to the Markov and Markov regenerative cases for which the main stability condition is weakened. We then study an intermittent production process with state dependent rates. We provide sufficient conditions for stability for this process and show that if these conditions are satisfied, then an interesting new relationship exists between the stationary distribution of this process and a dam process of the type we explore here.Supported in part by The Israel Science Foundation, grant no. 372/93-1.     

Singularly Perturbed Switching Diffusions: Rapid Switchings and Fast Diffusions

Motivated by many problems in optimization and control, this paper is concerned with singularly perturbed systems involving both diffusions and pure jump processes. Two models are treated. In the first model, the jump process changes very rapidly by comparison with the diffusion processes. In the second model, the diffusions change rapidly in comparison with the jump process. Asymptotic expansions are developed for the transition density vectors via a constructive method; justification of the asymptotic expansions and analysis of the remainders are provided.     

Feynman–Kac formulas for regime-switching jump diffusions and their applications

This work develops Feynman–Kac formulas for a class of regime-switching jump diffusion processes, in which the jump part is driven by a Poisson random measure associated with a general Lévy process and the switching part depends on the jump diffusion processes. Under broad conditions, the connections of such stochastic processes and the corresponding partial integro-differential equations are established. Related initial, terminal and boundary value problems are also treated. Moreover, based on weak convergence of probability measures, it is demonstrated that a sequence of random variables related to the regime-switching jump diffusion process converges in distribution to the arcsine law.     

Power variation from second order differences for pure jump semimartingales

We introduce power variation constructed from powers of the second-order differences of a discretely observed pure-jump semimartingale processes. We derive the asymptotic behavior of the statistic in the setting of high-frequency observations of the underlying process with a fixed time span. Unlike the standard power variation (formed from the first-order differences of the process), the limit of our proposed statistic is determined solely by the jump component of the process regardless of the activity of the latter. We further show that an associated Central Limit Theorem holds for a wider range of activity of the jump process than for the standard power variation. We apply these results for estimation of the jump activity as well as the integrated stochastic scale.     

跳跃扩散过程的期权定价模型

假定股票价格的跳过程为计数过程,建立了股票价格服从跳扩散过程的行为模型.运用随机分析中的鞅方法,推导出了股票价格的跳过程为计数过程的欧式期权定价公式,推广了已有的结果.