Folded overlapping variance estimators for simulation

We propose and analyze a new class of estimators for the variance parameter of a steady-state simulation output process. The new estimators are computed by averaging individual estimators from “folded” standardized time series based on overlapping batches composed of consecutive observations. The folding transformation on each batch can be applied more than once to produce an entire set of estimators. We establish the limiting distributions of the proposed estimators as the sample size tends to infinity while the ratio of the sample size to the batch size remains constant. We give analytical and Monte Carlo results showing that, compared to their counterparts computed from nonoverlapping batches, the new estimators have roughly the same bias but smaller variance. In addition, these estimators can be computed with order-of-sample-size work.     

Flexible Multivariate Density Estimation With Marginal Adaptation

This article is concerned with multivariate density estimation. We discuss deficiencies in two popular multivariate density estimators—mixture and copula estimators, and propose a new class of estimators that combines the advantages of both mixture and copula modeling, while being more robust to their weaknesses. Our method adapts any multivariate density estimator using information obtained by separately estimating the marginals. We propose two marginally adapted estimators based on a multivariate mixture of normals and a mixture of factor analyzers estimators. These estimators are implemented using computationally efficient split-and-elimination variational Bayes algorithms. It is shown through simulation and real-data examples that the marginally adapted estimators are capable of improving on their original estimators and compare favorably with other existing methods. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

An improved Afriat–Diewert–Parkan nonparametric production function estimator

Recent developments in the production frontier literature include nonparametric estimators with shape constraints. A few of these estimators rely on the Afriat inequalities to provide piecewise linear approximations to the production function/frontier. We show in this paper that these Afriat–Diewert–Parkan (ADP) estimators have deficiencies in the presence of moderate statistical noise including overfitting and a relatively high estimator variance. We propose new estimators with lower variance and a relatively low bias. We consider such alternative estimators based on (weighted) averages of random hinge functions with parameter restrictions. Small sample properties of the estimators are presented that show our new estimators outperform the existing ADP estimators when moderate to large amounts of noise are present.     

On Estimation of the Intensity Function of a Point Process

In this paper we review techniques for estimating the intensity function of a spatial point process. We present a unified framework of mass preserving general weight function estimators that encompasses both kernel and tessellation based estimators. We give explicit expressions for the first two moments of these estimators in terms of their product densities, and pay special attention to Poisson processes.     

Kernel quantile estimator with ICI adaptive bandwidth selection technique

In this article, we consider a class of kernel quantile estimators which is the linear combi- nation of order statistics. This class of kernel quantile estimators can be regarded as an extension of some existing estimators. The exact mean square error expression for this class of estimators will be provided when data are uniformly distributed. The implementation of these estimators depends mostly on the bandwidth selection. We then develop an adaptive method for bandwidth selection based on the intersection confidence intervals （ICI） principle. Monte Carlo studies demonstrate that our proposed approach is comparatively remarkable. We illustrate our method with a real data set.     

Bayesian inference using record values from Rayleigh model with application

In this article, based on a set of upper record values from a Rayleigh distribution, Bayesian and non-Bayesian approaches have been used to obtain the estimators of the parameter, and some lifetime parameters such as the reliability and hazard functions. Bayes estimators have been developed under symmetric (squared error) and asymmetric (LINEX and general entropy (GE)) loss functions. These estimators are derived using the informative and non-informative prior distributions for σ. We compare the performance of the presented Bayes estimators with known, non-Bayesian, estimators such as the maximum likelihood (ML) and the best linear unbiased (BLU) estimators. We show that Bayes estimators under the asymmetric loss functions are superior to both the ML and BLU estimators. The highest posterior density (HPD) intervals for the Rayleigh parameter and its reliability and hazard functions are presented. Also, Bayesian prediction intervals of the future record values are obtained and discussed. Finally, practical examples using real record values are given to illustrate the application of the results.     

Multivariate numerical differentiation

We present an innovative method for multivariate numerical differentiation i.e. the estimation of partial derivatives of multidimensional noisy signals. Starting from a local model of the signal consisting of a truncated Taylor expansion, we express, through adequate differential algebraic manipulations, the desired partial derivative as a function of iterated integrals of the noisy signal. Iterated integrals provide noise filtering. The presented method leads to a family of estimators for each partial derivative of any order. We present a detailed study of some structural properties given in terms of recurrence relations between elements of a same family. These properties are next used to study the performance of the estimators. We show that some differential algebraic manipulations corresponding to a particular family of estimators lead implicitly to an orthogonal projection of the desired derivative in a Jacobi polynomial basis functions, yielding an interpretation in terms of the popular least squares. This interpretation allows one to (1) explain the presence of a spatial delay inherent to the estimators and (2) derive an explicit formula for the delay. We also show how one can devise, by a proper combination of different elementary estimators of a given order derivative, an estimator giving a delay of any prescribed value. The simulation results show that delay-free estimators are sensitive to noise. Robustness with respect to noise can be highly increased by utilizing voluntary-delayed estimators. A numerical implementation scheme is given in the form of finite impulse response digital filters. The effectiveness of our derivative estimators is attested by several numerical simulations.     

Estimation of the Cholesky decomposition in a conditional independent normal model with missing data

We investigate the problem of estimating the Cholesky decomposition in a conditional independent normal model with missing data. Explicit expressions for the maximum likelihood estimators and unbiased estimators are derived. By introducing a special group, we obtain the best equivariant estimators.     

Multivariate numerical differentiation

We present an innovative method for multivariate numerical differentiation i.e. the estimation of partial derivatives of multidimensional noisy signals. Starting from a local model of the signal consisting of a truncated Taylor expansion, we express, through adequate differential algebraic manipulations, the desired partial derivative as a function of iterated integrals of the noisy signal. Iterated integrals provide noise filtering. The presented method leads to a family of estimators for each partial derivative of any order. We present a detailed study of some structural properties given in terms of recurrence relations between elements of a same family. These properties are next used to study the performance of the estimators. We show that some differential algebraic manipulations corresponding to a particular family of estimators lead implicitly to an orthogonal projection of the desired derivative in a Jacobi polynomial basis functions, yielding an interpretation in terms of the popular least squares. This interpretation allows one to (1) explain the presence of a spatial delay inherent to the estimators and (2) derive an explicit formula for the delay. We also show how one can devise, by a proper combination of different elementary estimators of a given order derivative, an estimator giving a delay of any prescribed value. The simulation results show that delay-free estimators are sensitive to noise. Robustness with respect to noise can be highly increased by utilizing voluntary-delayed estimators. A numerical implementation scheme is given in the form of finite impulse response digital filters. The effectiveness of our derivative estimators is attested by several numerical simulations.     

Malliavin Greeks without Malliavin calculus

We derive and analyze Monte Carlo estimators of price sensitivities (“Greeks”) for contingent claims priced in a diffusion model. There have traditionally been two categories of methods for estimating sensitivities: methods that differentiate paths and methods that differentiate densities. A more recent line of work derives estimators through Malliavin calculus. The purpose of this article is to investigate connections between Malliavin estimators and the more traditional and elementary pathwise method and likelihood ratio method. Malliavin estimators have been derived directly for diffusion processes, but implementation typically requires simulation of a discrete-time approximation. This raises the question of whether one should discretize first and then differentiate, or differentiate first and then discretize. We show that in several important cases the first route leads to the same estimators as are found through Malliavin calculus, but using only elementary techniques. Time-averaging of multiple estimators emerges as a key feature in achieving convergence to the continuous-time limit.