基于多源监测数据的道路交通流状态重构研究

根据给定区域多源监测的道路交通流数据对实际道路交通状况进行评估.通过对多源数据的清洗与融合,获得描述交通流状况的基本参数.将参数应用于偏微分方程模型及仿真模拟中,分别从宏观和微观的角度对区域内交通流变化情况进行预测.依据预测结果,为交通问题的科学管理提出了建议.     

低维宏观交通流模型的稳定性和分岔分析

交通流模型的分岔点对应临界的交通状态,对研究交通流的稳定性具有重要的理论意义.为了分析宏观交通流模型的分岔特征,通过对低维宏观交通流模型的求解得到两个平衡点,并讨论了其稳定性,发现该模型存在一个跨临界分岔点.数值仿真验证了结论的正确性,并且在一定条件下,通过改变响应时间会影响到最终的平衡状态.     

一个供需不确定性下的多模式非线性互补分配模型

交通需求和供给不确定是现实交通网络中常见的现象.提出一个供需不确定条件下非对称影响的多模式交通分配模型.提出的模型以条件概率的形式生成不同供需变动情景下的交通流模式,构成一个非线性互补模型,模型中获得的交通流模式,可以用来估计交通网络失效的损失指标和交通网络可靠性衡量指标,不同风险态度的出行者可借助指标来选择可靠性高的路段或避开效率损失高路段.使用一个算例来表明提出模型的适用性和有效性.结果表明,提出的模型能更好的反映不确定性条件下的多种模式交通流演变情况,反映不同的供需变动情景以及不同的出行模式对均衡流模式的影响,进而提高交通网络中用户的出行可靠度.     

短时交通流混沌预测模型的比较研究

短时交通流预测是实现交通流诱导的关键技术之一.针对目前短时交通混沌预测模型预测结果差异较大的问题,归纳了4种基于混沌理论的短时交通流预测模型:RBF神经网络模型、最大Lyapunov指数模型、局域线性模型和Volterra滤波器自适应预测模型,并对这4种预测模型进行了比较研究.应用4种预测模型对几个典型的非线性系统进行预测,验证了算法的准确性.然后用这4种预测模型对微观实测交通流的时间序列进行实证分析.仿真结果表明,4种预测模型对典型混沌时间序列具有很好的预测效果;而对实测交通流预测,其预测精度和稳定性较差,但可以满足实时交通流预测的需要.     

具有时滞和周期特征的短时交通流灰建模及其应用

针对短时交通流的延迟性、随机性和周期性特征,采用灰关联分析和分数阶累加生成方法建立了带时滞和周期特征的分数阶累加灰色新模型.针对短时交通流的延迟性,将短时交通流数据拆分成参考时间序列和对应的比较时间序列,进行关联度分析,得到计算时滞值的方法.针对短时交通流的随机性和周期性,利用分数阶累加生成方法,并引入tan(kp)为发展系数,sin(kp)为输入变量,建立了短时交通流的分数阶GM(1,1|tan(kp),sin(kp))模型,给出了模型参数的最小二乘估计和周期性参数与分数阶阶数的优化求解算法.最后将模型应用于长沙市芙蓉区某交叉路口的交通流建模及预测中,并与常规的五种模型进行了对比分析,结果表明,模型能较为准确地反映交通流的实际情况,且有较高的预测精度和较为稳定的结果.     

Payne-Whitham型宏观交通流模型波动特性

宏观交通流模型将交通流比拟成流体流,通过整体变量如交通流量、平均车速以及交通密度来研究其整体性质,得到了越来越多的肯定.文章采用波前展开的方法,研究Payne-Whitham型宏观交通流模型描述扰动沿交通流波动的特性,同时给出了相应的稳定性条件.最后利用Padé逼近法进行数值仿真,得到的结果与理论分析相一致.     

离散交通流模型的反馈线性化与拥堵控制

在自动化高速公路环境下,提出一种改进的宏观离散交通流模型密度控制方法.利用反馈线性化方法,将宏观离散交通流模型转换为一般容易处理的线性系统模型,简化了密度控制器的设计.利用线性系统中具有输入变换的跟踪反馈控制方法,对线性化后的系统模型设计控制律.通过控制该线性系统的状态变量,间接稳定离散交通流模型中的交通流密度,达到对道路交通流拥堵的控制.同时给出设计方法和步骤,仿真实例说明了方法的实用性.     

突发交通事件非参数诊断的变点统计方法研究

针对智能运输系统(ITS)项目特别是先进的出行信息系统的开发，建立了突发交通事件非线性非参数诊断的变点统计方法。依据交通流理论，结合均值变点模型，对变点搜索的最小二乘法和局部比较法进行了研究。利用在英国南安普敦市检获的实际数据对上述两种算法进行了标定，并对模型进行实际应用。结果显示上述方法对突发事件检测具有很高的灵敏度和有效性。     

稳健交通均衡模型的SDP松弛

交通均衡问题在城市交通管理中具有重要意义.研究均衡交通的目的是通过对稳定交通流进行量化分析、,为决策者提供交通规划及管理的依据.Wardrop交通均衡原理是描述交通均衡问题的基石,本文在其扩展之一的稳健Wardrop(Robust Wardrop,简记为RW)互补均衡模型的基础上,将不确定因素的盒子约束改进为球约束,以改善原有模型的保守度.其次给出带有不确定因素的稳健Wardrop极小化形式及其确定性稳健对应模型(Robust Counterpart,简记为RC).最后通过SDP松弛手段将稳健对应模型(RC)松弛为容易的线性半定规划问题进行求解,并给出实例说明,为不确定因素影响下的交通均衡问题提供了一种新的有效模型及解法.     

自动驾驶汽车在交通网络中的效能分析

研究了对于三车道的高速公路,自动驾驶汽车对混合交通流的通行能力及安全性的影响。引入变道欲望值、连续刹车率、空间速度方差和时间速度方差的概念,基于交通流元胞自动机模型,针对手动和自动驾驶2种汽车,建立了单向三车道的加减速和换道规则。选取6个评价参数,针对三车道模型,研究了随着自动驾驶汽车比例的增加,车道平均速度、平均速度的方差、交通密度、连续刹车率以及变道次数的变化情况。实验结果表明:在通行能力方面,当自动驾驶汽车的比例持续增加时,整个车道的平均速度、交通密度显著增加,从而大大提高了此交通网路中的通行能力;同时空间速度方差和时间速度方差会显著减少,说明整个交通流的平稳性增加了。在安全表现方面,当自动驾驶汽车的比例持续增加时,整个交通网路中的连续刹车率、变道次数先逐渐增加,然后逐渐减少,从而很好地刻画了安全性。最后分析了模型的优缺点,并指出了改进的方向。     

Instability of cooperative adaptive cruise control traffic flow: A macroscopic approach

This paper proposes a macroscopic model to describe the operations of cooperative adaptive cruise control (CACC) traffic flow, which is an extension of adaptive cruise control (ACC) traffic flow. In CACC traffic flow a vehicle can exchange information with many preceding vehicles through wireless communication. Due to such communication the CACC vehicle can follow its leader at a closer distance than the ACC vehicle. The stability diagrams are constructed from the developed model based on the linear and nonlinear stability method for a certain model parameter set. It is found analytically that CACC vehicles enhance the stabilization of traffic flow with respect to both small and large perturbations compared to ACC vehicles. Numerical simulation is carried out to support our analytical findings. Based on the nonlinear stability analysis, we will show analytically and numerically that the CACC system better improves the dynamic equilibrium capacity over the ACC system. We have argued that in parallel to microscopic models for CACC traffic flow, the newly developed macroscopic will provide a complete insight into the dynamics of intelligent traffic flow.     

Real‐time road traffic forecasting using regime‐switching space‐time models and adaptive LASSO

Smart transportation technologies require real‐time traffic prediction to be both fast and scalable to full urban networks. We discuss a method that is able to meet this challenge while accounting for nonlinear traffic dynamics and space‐time dependencies of traffic variables. Nonlinearity is taken into account by a union of non‐overlapping linear regimes characterized by a sequence of temporal thresholds. In each regime, for each measurement location, a penalized estimation scheme, namely the adaptive absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), is implemented to perform model selection and coefficient estimation simultaneously. Both the robust to outliers least absolute deviation estimates and conventional LASSO estimates are considered. The methodology is illustrated on 5‐minute average speed data from three highway networks. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Minimality conditions for wave speed in anisotropic smectic C∗ liquid crystals

We discuss minimality conditions for the speed of monotone travelling waves in a sample of smectic C^∗ liquid crystal subject to a constant electric field, dealing with both isotropic and anisotropic cases. Such conditions are important in understanding the properties of domain wall switching across a smectic layer, and our focus here is on examining how the presence of anisotropy can affect the speed of this switching. We obtain an estimate of the influence of anisotropy on the minimal speed, sufficient conditions for linear and non‐linear minimal speed selection mechanisms to hold in different parameter regimes, and a characterisation of the boundary separating the linear and non‐linear regimes in parameter space.     

Analytical formulation for explaining the variations in traffic states: A fundamental diagram modeling perspective with stochastic parameters

Despite the simplicity and practicality of (deterministic) fundamental diagram models in highway traffic flow theory, the wide scattering effect observed in empirical data remains highly controversial, particularly for explaining traffic state variations. Owing to the analytical properties of the fundamental diagram modeling approach, in this study, we proposed an analytical and quantitative method for analyzing traffic state variations. We investigated the scattering effect in the fundamental diagram and proposed two stochastic fundamental diagram (SFD) models with lognormal and skew-normal distributions to explain the variations in traffic states. The first SFD model assumes that the scattering effect results from stochasticity in both the free-flow speed and the speed at critical density. Both random variables were assumed to follow the lognormal distribution. In the second SFD model, an integrated error term that was assumed to follow the skew-normal distribution over different density ranges was appended to the deterministic fundamental diagram. The properties of these two SFD models were analyzed and compared, and the parameters in these SFD models were calibrated using real-world loop detector data. The observed scatters from the empirical data were reproduced well by the simulated fundamental diagram model, indicating the validity of the proposed SFD models for explaining traffic state variations. Using these two analytical SFD models, we can analyze the stochastic capacity of freeways with closed forms. More importantly, the sources of stochasticity in freeway capacity can be traced in terms of randomly distributed parameters in fundamental diagram models.     

一种基于收费数据的断面流量估算方法

高速公路的流量是反映高速公路交通状态的一个重要参数.目前,针对高速公路断面流量的采集主要依靠人工方式或者通过安装一些车流检测设备来获得,成本较高.结合高速公路收费系统的特点,通过对收费数据的统计分析,提出一种基于收费数据估算高速公路断面流量的方法.首先,对收费数据进行初步的处理,从中计算出行驶时间;然后,根据收费数据中的车辆信息统计出各个OD的交通流量;最后,结合各个收费站出入口的位置信息、路段行驶速度信息以及OD流量来估算断面的交通流量.     

Similarity solution for a spherical shock wave in a non‐ideal gas under the influence of gravitational field and monochromatic radiation with increasing energy

The propagation of a spherical shock wave in a non‐ideal gas with or without gravitational effects is investigated under the action of monochromatic radiation. Similarity solutions are obtained for adiabatic flow between the shock and the piston. The numerical solutions are obtained using the Runge‐Kutta method of the fourth order. The density of the gas is assumed to be constant. The total energy of the shock wave is non‐constant and varies with time. The effects of change in values of non‐idealness parameter, gravitational parameter, shock Mach number, radiation parameter, and adiabatic exponent of the gas on shock strength and flow variables are worked out in detail. It is investigated that the presence of gravitational field increases the compressibility of the medium, due to which it is compressed and, therefore, the distance between the inner contact surface and the shock surface is reduced. A comparison is also made between the solutions in the cases of the gravitating and the non‐gravitating media. It is manifested that the gravitational parameter and the radiation parameter have in general opposite behaviour on the flow variables and the shock strength.     

求解用户平衡与系统最优模型的新算法

近些年,国内外许多学者针对交通规划提出了诸如用户平衡(UE)、系统最优(SO)等模型,但由于交通网络的复杂性,这些模型的求解相对困难,考虑到在一般的UE、S0模型中,其约束条件为线性约束与非负约束,给出一种求解交通规划模型的新算法,算法不需使用任何线搜索,只要通过求解一个简单的二次规划问题得到下降方向即可,最后,将该算法应用到简单的交通网络中,并通过与相继平均法(MSA)进行比较,验证了该算法的收敛速度较快。