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Modeling social‐ecological systems is difficult due to the complexity of ecosystems and of individual and collective human behavior. Key components of the social‐ecological system are often over‐simplified or omitted. Generalized modeling is a dynamical systems approach that can overcome some of these challenges. It can rigorously analyze qualitative system dynamics such as regime shifts despite incomplete knowledge of the model's constituent processes. Here, we review generalized modeling and use a recent study on the Baltic Sea cod fishery's boom and collapse to demonstrate its application to modeling the dynamics of empirical social‐ecological systems. These empirical applications demand new methods of analysis suited to larger, more complicated generalized models. Generalized modeling is a promising tool for rapidly developing mathematically rigorous, process‐based understanding of a social‐ecological system's dynamics despite limited knowledge of the system.     

Control parameters in Boolean networks and cellular automata revisited from a logical and a sociological point of view

The use of “control parameters” as applied to describe the dynamics of complex mathematical systems within models of real social systems is discussed. Whereas single control parameters cannot sufficiently characterize the dynamics of such systems it is suggested that domains of values of certain sets of parameters are appropriately denoting necessary conditions for highly disordered dynamics of social systems. Various of those control parameters permit a straightforward interpretation in terms of properties of social rules and structures. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Simplicity and reality in computational modeling of politics

Modeling a polity based on viable scientific concepts and theoretical understanding has been a challenge in computational social science and social simulation in general and political science in particular. This paper presents a computational model of a polity (political system) in progressive versions from simple to more realistic. The model, called SimPol to highlight the fundamental structures and processes of politics in a generic society, is developed using the combined methodologies of object-based modeling (OOM), the Unified Modeling Language (UML), and the methodology of Lakatos’ research programs. SimPol demonstrates that computational models of entire political systems are methodologically feasible and scientifically viable; they can also build on and progress beyond previous theory and research to advance our understanding of how polities operate across a variety of domains (simple vs. complex) and levels of analysis (local, national, international). Both simple and realistic models are necessary, for theoretical and empirical purposes, respectively.

Modeling the complexity of genetic networks: Understanding multigenic and pleiotropic regulation

Molecular genetics presents an increasingly complex picture of the genome and biological function. Evidence is mounting for distributed function, redundancy, and combinatorial coding in the regulation of genes. Satisfactory explanation will require the concept of a parallel processing signaling network. Here we provide an introduction to Boolean networks and their relevance to present-day experimental research. Boolean network models exhibit global complex behavior, self-organization, stability, redundancy and periodicity, properties that deeply characterize biological systems. While the life sciences must inevitably face the issue of complexity, we may well look to cybernetics for a modeling language such as Boolean networks which can manageably describe parallel processing biological systems and provide a framework for the growing accumulation of data. We finally discuss experimental strategies and database systems that will enable mapping of genetic networks. The synthesis of these approaches holds an immense potential for new discoveries on the intimate nature of genetic networks, bringing us closer to an understanding of complex molecular physiological processes like brain development, and intractable medical problems of immediate importance, such as neurodegenerative disorders, cancer, and a variety of genetic diseases.     

On Hankel and Mellin transforms

The development of three positively evaluated social science computer simulations is reviewed as a basis for comments on current debates about the utility of social simulations: Colby's treatment of neurotic belief dynamics, the Abelson‐Bernstein simulation of fluoridation controversies and Alker's projected computer model of United Nations parliamentary diplomacy.

In each case, the non‐analytical nature of the computer model is not due to unusual mathematical ineptitude but derived from evidence contradicting the empirical validity of more elegant formalizations employing, respectively, formal logics and graph theory, differential equation systems, game theory and statistical models. Several analytically challenging problems concerning validity assessment, the nature of deep structure, and the policy‐relevant performance characteristics of complex models are mentioned.

Moral, political, philosophical and pedagogical issues derive from the empirically provisional nature of all simulation versions of frequently controversial social theories, the frequent mystification of mathematical/computerized ‘results’, and the uneven practical utility and accessibility of social simulations. Conflicts between the ethical perspectives of doctors, public officials, citizens and natural scientists are suggested in terms of a humanoid interpretation of complex simulation systems. The pedagogical use of mixed or complementary developmental, philosophical, mathematical and scientific approaches is advocated to minimize potential abuses of social simulation research.

     

Behavioral modeling in weight loss interventions

Designing systems with human agents is difficult because it often requires models that characterize agents’ responses to changes in the system’s states and inputs. An example of this scenario occurs when designing treatments for obesity. While weight loss interventions through increasing physical activity and modifying diet have found success in reducing individuals’ weight, such programs are difficult to maintain over long periods of time due to lack of patient adherence. A promising approach to increase adherence is through the personalization of treatments to each patient. In this paper, we make a contribution toward treatment personalization by developing a framework for predictive modeling using utility functions that depend upon both time-varying system states and motivational states evolving according to some modeled process corresponding to qualitative social science models of behavior change. Computing the predictive model requires solving a bilevel program, which we reformulate as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). This reformulation provides the first (to our knowledge) formulation for Bayesian inference that uses empirical histograms as prior distributions. We study the predictive ability of our framework using a data set from a weight loss intervention, and our predictive model is validated by comparison to standard machine learning approaches. We conclude by describing how our predictive model could be used for optimization, unlike standard machine learning approaches that cannot.     

A statistical Markov chain approximation of transient hospital inpatient inventory

Inventory levels are critical to the operations, management, and capacity decisions of inventory systems but can be difficult to model in heterogeneous, non-stationary throughput systems. The inpatient hospital is a complicated throughput system and, like most inventory systems, hospitals dynamically make managerial decisions based on short term subjective demand predictions. Specifically, short term hospital staffing, resource capacity, and finance decisions are made according to hospital inpatient inventory predictions. Inpatient inventory systems have non-stationary patient arrival and service processes. Previously developed models present poor inventory predictions due to model subjectivity, high model complexity, solely expected value predictions, and assumed stationary arrival and service processes. Also, no models present statistical testing for model significance and quality-of-fit. This paper presents a Markov chain probability model that uses maximum likelihood regression to predict the expectations and discrete distributions of transient inpatient inventories. The approach has a foundation in throughput theory, has low model complexity, and provides statistical significance and quality-of-fit tests unique to this Markov chain. The Markov chain is shown to have superior predictability over Seasonal ARIMA models.     

Evolution of social networks

Modeling the evolution of networks is central to our understanding of large communication systems, and more general, modern economic and social systems. The research on social and economic networks is truly interdisciplinary and the number of proposed models is huge. In this survey we discuss a small selection of modeling approaches, covering classical random graph models, and game-theoretic models to analyze the evolution of social networks. Based on these two basic modeling paradigms, we introduce co-evolutionary models of networks and play as a potential synthesis.     

Some statistical challenges in automated driving systems

Automated driving systems are rapidly developing. However, numerous open problems remain to be resolved to ensure this technology progresses before its widespread adoption. A large subset of these problems are, or can be framed as, statistical decision problems. Therefore, we present herein several important statistical challenges that emerge when designing and operating automated driving systems. In particular, we focus on those that relate to request-to-intervene decisions, ethical decision support, operations in heterogeneous traffic, and algorithmic robustification. For each of these problems, earlier solution approaches are reviewed and alternative solutions are provided with accompanying empirical testing. We also highlight open avenues of inquiry for which applied statistical investigation can help ensure the maturation of automated driving systems. In so doing, we showcase the relevance of statistical research and practice within the context of this revolutionary technology.     

A theoretical analysis of the cross-nested logit model

The emergence of Intelligent Transportation Systems and the associated technologies has increased the need for complex models and algorithms. Namely, real-time information systems, directly influencing transportation demand, must be supported by detailed behavioral models capturing travel and driving decisions. Discrete choice models methodology provide an appropriate framework to capture such behavior. Recently, the Cross-Nested Logit (CNL) model has received quite a bit of attention in the literature to capture decisions such as mode choice, departure time choice and route choice. %The CNL model is an extension of the Nested Logit model, providing %more flexibility at the cost of some complexity in the model formulation. In this paper, we develop on the general formulation of the Cross Nested Logit model proposed by Ben-Akiva and Bierlaire (1999) and based on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) model. We show that it is equivalent to the formulations byby Papola (2004) and Wen and Koppelman (2001). We also show that the formulations by Small(1987) and Vovsha(1997) are special cases of this formulation. We formally prove that the Cross-Nested Logit model is indeed a member of the GEV models family. In doing so, we clearly distinguish between conditions that are necessary to prove consistency with the GEV theory, from normalization conditions. Finally, we propose to estimate the model with non-linear programming algorithms, instead of heuristics proposed in the literature. In order to make it operational, we provide the first derivatives of the log-likelihood function, which are necessary to such optimization procedures.     

On Bifurcations in Nonlinear Consensus Networks

The theory of consensus dynamics is widely employed to study various linear behaviors in networked control systems. Moreover, nonlinear phenomena have been observed in animal groups, power networks and in other networked systems. These observations inspire the development in this paper of three novel approaches to define distributed nonlinear dynamical interactions. The resulting dynamical systems are akin to higher-order nonlinear consensus systems. Over connected undirected graphs, the resulting dynamical systems exhibit various interesting behaviors that we rigorously characterize.     

Transparent prioritisation,budgeting and resource allocation with multi-criteria decision analysis and decision conferencing

Managers in both for-profit and not-for-profit organisations continually face the task of allocating resources by balancing costs, benefits and risks and gaining commitment by a wide constituency of stakeholders to those decisions. This task is complex and difficult because many options are present, benefits and risks are rarely expressed as single objectives, multiple stakeholders with different agendas compete for limited resources, individually optimal resource allocations to organisational units are rarely collectively optimal, and those dissatisfied with the decisions taken may resist implementation. We first explain three current approaches to resource allocation taken from corporate finance, operational research and decision analysis, and we identify a common mistake organisations make in allocating resources. The paper then presents a technical process, multi-criteria portfolio analysis, for balancing the conflicting elements of the problem, and a social process, decision conferencing, which engages all the key players during the modelling process, ensuring their ownership of the model and the subsequent implementation. This socio-technical process improves communication within the organisation, develops shared understanding of the portfolio and generates a sense of common purpose about those projects that will best realise the organisation’s objectives. The paper concludes with lessons we have learned from actual practice. The authors want to thank Allergan and FCT (Portuguese Science Foundation) for their support.     

A survey on piecewise-linear models of regulatory dynamical systems

Recent developments in understanding the various regulatory systems, especially the developments in biology and genomics, stimulated an interest in modelling such systems. Hybrid systems, originally developed for process control applications, provide advances in modelling such systems. A particular class of hybrid systems which are relatively simpler to analyze mathematically but still capable of demonstrating the essential features of many non-linear dynamical systems is piecewise-linear systems. Implementation of piecewise-linear systems for modelling of regulatory dynamical systems requires different considerations depending on the status of the problem. In this work we considered three different cases. Firstly, we consider the inferential modelling problem based on the empirical observations and study the discrete piecewise-linear system, whose inverse problem is solvable under some assumptions. Secondly, we considered the problem of obtaining some complex regulatory systems by tractable piecewise-linear formulations and study the qualitative dynamic features of the systems and their piecewise-linear models. Finally, we considered Boolean delay equations for building abstract models of regulatory systems, which might be the simplest models demonstrating the essential qualitative features of our interest underlying adaption, learning and memorization.     

Nonlinear analysis of wireless LAN traffic

An understanding of traffic characteristics and accurate traffic models are necessary for the improvement of the capability of wireless networks. In this paper we have analyzed the nonlinear dynamical behavior of several real traffic traces collected from wireless testbeds. We have found strong evidence that the wireless traffic is chaotic from our observations. That is, we found from the correlation dimension, the largest Lyapunov exponent and the principal components for analysis, which are typical indicators of chaotic traffic. This gives us a good theoretical basis for the analysis and modeling of wireless traffic using chaos theory.     

A survey of quantum-like approaches to decision making and cognition

There has always been a steady interest in how humans make decisions amongst researchers from various fields. Based on this interest, many approaches such as rational choice theory or expected utility hypothesis have been proposed. Although these approaches provide a suitable ground for modeling the decision making process of humans, they are unable to explain the corresponding irrationalities and existing paradoxes and fallacies. Recently, a new formulation of decision theory that can correctly describe these paradoxes and possibly provide a unified and general theory of decision making has been proposed. This new formulation is founded based on the application of the mathematical structure of quantum theory to the fields of human decision making and cognition. It is shown that by applying these quantum-like models, one can better describe the uncertainty, ambiguity, emotions and risks involved in the human decision making process. Even in computational environments, an agent that follows the correct patterns of human decision making will have a better functionality in performing its role as a proxy for a real user. In this paper, we present a comprehensive survey of the researches and the corresponding recent developments. Finally, the benefits of leveraging the quantum-like modeling approaches in computational domains and the existing challenges and limitations currently facing the field are discussed.     

A decision-theoritic approach to risk

The objective of analysing a company's risk exposures is togain an understanding of the risks that the company faces. Onlythen can the likely level of future losses be estimated, anddecisions about how best to manage these risks be made. To gaina full understanding, we first need to adjust for a number ofexternal factors to ensure that all data are on a consistentbasis. The historic data can then be analysed and the levelof variability determined. After identifying appropriate probabilitydistributions for the frequency and severity of the risks, simulationscan be run to make forecasts. Once forecasts have been made, the best way to manage and financethe risks can be considered. As such decisions typically dependupon many factors, utility theory can be used to summarize theadvantage that the company will obtain from each alternativein a given situation. This will involve defining a utility functionfor the company. Methods of eliciting these utility functionsexist, including influence diagrams. Decision theory can consequentlybe applied to determine the best course of action using thecompany's utility function and its beliefs about the future.Uncertainty inherent in the information can therefore be incorporatedin the decision process rather than be ignored. The decisionwill also depend upon the ability of the company to sustaina loss from retained risks and regulatory requirements relatingto the risks.     

Reciprocal inhibitory coupling: Measure and control of chaos on a biophysically motivated model of bursting

Bursting activity is an interesting feature of the temporal organization in many cell firing patterns. This complex behavior is characterized by clusters of spikes (action potentials) interspersed with phases of quiescence. As shown in experimental recordings, concerning the electrical activity of real neurons, the analysis of bursting models reveals not only patterned periodic activity but also irregular behavior [1], [2]. The interpretation of experimental results, particularly the study of the influence of coupling on chaotic bursting oscillations, is of great interest from physiological and physical perspectives. The inability to predict the behavior of dynamical systems in presence of chaos suggests the application of chaos control methods, when we are more interested in obtaining regular behavior. In the present article, we focus our attention on a specific class of biophysically motivated maps, proposed in the literature to describe the chaotic activity of spiking–bursting cells [Cazelles B, Courbage M, Rabinovich M. Anti-phase regularization of coupled chaotic maps modelling bursting neurons. Europhys Lett 2001;56:504–9]. More precisely, we study a map that reproduces the behavior of a single cell and a map used to examine the role of reciprocal inhibitory coupling, specially on two symmetrically coupled bursting neurons. Firstly, using results of symbolic dynamics, we characterize the topological entropy associated to the maps, which allows us to quantify and to distinguish different chaotic regimes. In particular, we exhibit numerical results about the effect of the coupling strength on the variation of the topological entropy. Finally, we show that complicated behavior arising from the chaotic coupled maps can be controlled, without changing of its original properties, and turned into a desired attracting time periodic motion (a regular cycle). The control is illustrated by an application of a feedback control technique developed by Romeiras et al. [Romeiras FJ, Grebogi C, Ott E, Dayawansa WP. Controlling chaotic dynamical systems. Physica D 1992;58:165–92]. This work provides an illustration of how our understanding of chaotic bursting models can be enhanced by the theory of dynamical systems.