Stochastic models for air cargo terminal manpower supply planning in long‐term operations

In this research, based on two deterministic‐demand planning models, we established two long‐term stochastic‐demand planning models by incorporating the stochastic disturbances of manpower demands that occur in actual operations. The models are formulated as mixed integer linear programs that are solved using a mathematical programming solver. To compare the performance of the two stochastic‐demand and two deterministic‐demand planning models under the stochastic demands that occur in actual operations, we further develop a simulation‐based evaluation method. Finally, we perform numerical tests using real operating data from a Taiwan air cargo terminal. The preliminary results show that the stochastic models could be useful for planning air cargo terminal manpower supply. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stochastic modeling of carcinogenesis by state space models: a new approach

In this paper, we have developed some state space models for carcinogenesis involving multievent models and multiple pathways models. In these state space models, the stochastic system models are stochastic models of carcinogenesis expressed in terms of stochastic differential equations, whereas the observation models are statistical models based on the observed number of detectable preneoplastic lesions per individual over time and the observed number of detectable cancer tumors per individual over time. In this paper, we have applied some of the theories to some animal papillomas data from some initiation-promotion experiments on skin cancer in mice to estimate some unknown parameters. For this data set we have obtained excellent fit by a model with three piece-wise intervals.     

Effective averaging of stochastic radiative models based on Monte Carlo simulation

Based on the Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic analysis, stochastic radiative models are effectively averaged; that is, deterministic models that reproduce the mean probabilities of particle passage through a stochastic medium are constructed. For this purpose, special algorithms for the double randomization and conjugate walk methods are developed. For the numerical simulation of stochastic media, homogeneous isotropic Voronoi and Poisson mosaic models are used. The parameters of the averaged models are estimated based on the properties of the exponential distribution and the renewal theory.     

Long term behaviors of stochastic single-species growth models in a polluted environment II

This is a continuation of our paper [M. Liu, K. Wang, X. Liu. Long term behaviors of stochastic single-species growth models in a polluted environment. Appl Math Model 2011;35:752–62]. This work still devotes to studying three stochastic single-species models in a polluted environment. For the first system, sufficient criteria for extinction, stochastic non-persistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence of the population are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence in the mean and extinction is obtained. For the second model, sufficient conditions for extinction, stochastic non-persistence in the mean, stochastic weak persistence, stochastic weak persistence in the mean, stochastic strong persistence in the mean and stochastic permanence are established. The threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is derived. For the third system, the threshold between stochastic weak persistence and extinction is obtained.     

Construction of Equivalent Stochastic Differential Equation Models

Abstract

It is shown how different but equivalent Itô stochastic differential equation models of random dynamical systems can be constructed. Advantages and disadvantages of the different models are described. Stochastic differential equation models are derived for problems in chemistry, textile engineering, and epidemiology. Computational comparisons are made between the different stochastic models.     

Efficiency measurement in the stochastic frontier model

Deterministic models of technical efficiency assume that all deviations from the production frontier are due to inefficiency. Critics argue that no allowance is made for measurement error and other statistical noise so that the resulting efficiency measure will be contaminated. The stochastic frontier model is an alternative that allows both inefficiency and measurement error. Advocates argue that the stochastic frontier models should be used despite other potential limitations because of the superior conceptual treatment of noise. As will be demonstrated in this paper, however, the assumed shape of the error distributions is used to identify a key production function parameter. Therefore, the stochastic frontier models, like the deterministic models, cannot produce absolute measures of efficiency. Moreover, we show that rankings for firm-specific inefficiency estimates produced by traditional stochastic frontier models do not change from the rankings of the composed errors. As a result, the performance of the deterministic models is qualitatively similar to that of the stochastic frontier models.     

Asymptotic behaviors of stochastic epidemic models with jump-diffusion

In this paper, we classify the asymptotic behavior for a class of stochastic SIR epidemic models represented by stochastic differential systems where the Brownian motions and Lévy jumps perturb to the linear terms of each equation. We construct a threshold value between permanence and extinction and develop the ergodicity of the underlying system. It is shown that the transition probabilities converge in total variation norm to the invariant measure. Our results can be considered as a significant contribution in studying the long term behavior of stochastic differential models because there are no restrictions imposed to the parameters of models. Techniques used in proving results of this paper are new and suitable to deal with other stochastic models in biology where the noises may perturb to nonlinear terms of equations or with delay equations.     

Solving stochastic complementarity problems in energy market modeling using scenario reduction

In this paper, we analyze market equilibrium models with random aspects that lead to stochastic complementarity problems. While the models presented depict energy markets, the results are believed to be applicable to more general stochastic complementarity problems. The contribution is the development of new heuristic, scenario reduction approaches that iteratively work towards solving the full, extensive form, stochastic market model. The methods are tested on three representative models and supporting numerical results are provided as well as derived mathematical bounds.     

随机需求的车辆路线问题的新模型

本主要研究随机需求的VRP问题,其中服务需求量满足二项式分布,根据期望值的大小我们提出了在一条路线上理想最大服务点数的新概念,并在此基础上建立了三种VRP问题的新模型,由于允许服务失败两次和部分服务使得模糊能适应多种实际问题,以模拟退火思想为基础的两阶段方法经修正后用于解新模型并取得较好的数值结果,理论分析和数值结果表明,新模型较好地描述随机需求的VRP问题,并且容易求解。     

Stochastic Lotka–Volterra systems with Lévy noise

This paper is concerned with stochastic Lotka–Volterra models perturbed by Lévy noise. Firstly, stochastic logistic models with Lévy noise are investigated. Sufficient and necessary conditions for stochastic permanence and extinction are obtained. Then three stochastic Lotka–Volterra models of two interacting species perturbed by Lévy noise (i.e., predator–prey system, competition system and cooperation system) are studied. For each system, sufficient and necessary conditions for persistence in the mean and extinction of each population are established. The results reveal that firstly, both persistence and extinction have close relationships with Lévy noise; Secondly, the interaction rates play very important roles in determining the persistence and extinction of the species.     

Stochastic Geometric Models with Non-stationary Spatial Correlations in Lagrangian Fluid Flows

Inspired by spatiotemporal observations from satellites of the trajectories of objects drifting near the surface of the ocean in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s “Global Drifter Program”, this paper develops data-driven stochastic models of geophysical fluid dynamics (GFD) with non-stationary spatial correlations representing the dynamical behaviour of oceanic currents. Three models are considered. Model 1 from Holm (Proc R Soc A 471:20140963, 2015) is reviewed, in which the spatial correlations are time independent. Two new models, called Model 2 and Model 3, introduce two different symmetry breaking mechanisms by which the spatial correlations may be advected by the flow. These models are derived using reduction by symmetry of stochastic variational principles, leading to stochastic Hamiltonian systems, whose momentum maps, conservation laws and Lie–Poisson bracket structures are used in developing the new stochastic Hamiltonian models of GFD.     

HIV/AIDS Model with Delay and the Effects of Stochasticity

We present a deterministic HIV/AIDS model with delay. We then extend the model by adjoining terms capturing stochastic effects. The intensity of the fluctuations in the stochastic system is analytically evaluated using Fourier transform methods. We carry out simulations to assess differences in the dynamical behavior of the deterministic and stochastic models. Simulation results show that they are no significant differences in the behavior of the two models.     

Multivariate Stochastic Orders Induced by Case-Control Sampling

It is shown that retrospective sampling induces stochastic order relations in case-control studies. More specifically if the regression function is increasing and the covariates are positively dependent, then the covariates for cases are larger, with respect to some multivariate stochastic order, than the covariates of the controls. Strong dependence concepts yield strong multivariate stochastic orders. Conversely, different multivariate stochastic orders imply different monotonicity properties on the regression function. The results carry over to marginal models, transformed models and to problems involving confounders. The results set forth a new theoretical foundation for the analysis of case-control studies.     

Optimization models and a GA-based algorithm for stochastic time-cost trade-off problem

In real-life projects, both the trade-off between the project cost and the project completion time, and the uncertainty of the environment are considerable aspects for decision-makers. However, the research on the time-cost trade-off problem seldom concerns stochastic environments. Besides, optimizing the expected value of the objective is the exclusive decision-making criterion in the existing models for the stochastic time-cost trade-off problem. In this paper, two newly developed alternative stochastic time-cost trade-off models are proposed, in which the philosophies of chance-constrained programming and dependent-chance programming are adopted for decision-making. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm integrating stochastic simulations and genetic algorithm is designed to search the quasi-optimal schedules under different decision-making criteria. The goal of the paper is to reveal how to obtain the optimal balance of the project completion time and the project cost in stochastic environments.     

Reliability of Deterioration System

Mathematical models of the reliability assessment of a structure treated as the time to the first passage of the capacity which is degrading in the time are presented. Two stochastic models of the structure degradation caused by different factors and two stochastic models of loading are considered. The relationships for calculating the probability of failure for presented models of the structure load and the capacity degradation, are given. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The Stochastic Theory of Fluvial Landsurfaces

A stochastic theory of fluvial landsurfaces is developed for transport-limited erosion, using well-established models for the water and sediment fluxes. The mathematical models and analysis are developed showing that some aspects of landsurface evolution can be described by Markovian stochastic processes. The landsurfaces are described by nondeterministic stochastic processes, characterized by a statistical quantity, the variogram, that exhibits characteristic scalings. Thus the landsurfaces are shown to be self-organized critical (SOC) systems, possessing both an initial transient state and a stationary state, characterized by respectively temporal and spatial scalings. The mathematical theory of SOC systems is developed and used to identify three stochastic processes that shape the surface. The SOC theory of landsurfaces reproduces established numerical results and measurements from digital elevation models (DEMs).     

Geometric Ergodicity for Piecewise Contracting Processes with Applications for Tropical Stochastic Lattice Models

Stochastic lattice models are increasingly prominent as a way to capture highly intermittent unresolved features of moist tropical convection in climate science and as continuum mesoscopic models in material science. Stochastic lattice models consist of suitably discretized continuum partial differential equations interacting with Markov jump processes at each lattice site with transition rates depending on the local value of the continuum equation; they are a special case of piecewise deterministic Markov processes but often have an infinite state space and unbounded transition rates. Here a general theorem on geometric ergodicity for piecewise deterministic contracting processes is developed with full generality to apply to stochastic lattice models. A highly nontrivial application to the stochastic skeleton model for the Madden‐Julian oscillation (Thual et al., 2013) is developed here where there is an infinite state space with unbounded and also degenerate transition rates. Geometric ergodicity for the stochastic skeleton model guarantees exponential convergence to a unique invariant measure that defines the statistical tropical climate of the model. Another application of the general framework is developed here for stochastic lattice models designed to capture intermittent fluctuation in the simplest tropical climate models. Other straightforward applications to models motivated by material science are mentioned briefly here. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Stochastic network optimization models for investment planning

We describe and compare stochastic network optimization models for investment planning under uncertainty. Emphasis is placed on multiperiod a sset allocation and active portfolio management problems. Myopic as well as multiple period models are considered. In the case of multiperiod models, the uncertainty in asset returns filters into the constraint coefficient matrix, yielding a multi-scenario program formulation. Different scenario generation procedures are examined. The use of utility functions to reflect risk bearing attitudes results in nonlinear stochastic network models. We adopt a newly proposed decomposition procedure for solving these multiperiod stochastic programs. The performance of the models in simulations based on historical data is discussed.Research partially supported by National Science Foundation Grant No. DCR-861-4057 and IBM Grant No. 5785. Also, support from Pacific Financial Companies is gratefully acknowledged.