线性模型中M检验原假设分布的随机加权逼近

在线性模型中M-方法可以用于线性假设检验, 其中M检验、Wald检验和Rao的计分型检验是最常用的检验准则. 但是在计算这些检验的临界值时都涉及到未知参数的估计. 在本文中我们利用随机加权的方法来逼近这些检验的原假设分布. 结果表明在原假设和局部对立假设之下随机加权统计量的渐近分布与原检验统计量在原假设之下的渐近分布相同. 因此我们不需要对冗余参数进行估计,利用随机加权的方法就可以得到这些检验的临界值. 而且在局部对立假设之下可以实现对功效的计算. 当取不同的误差分布和不同的随机权时, 我们对本文的方法进行了蒙特卡洛模拟. 结果表明用随机加权方法来逼近原假设分布是非常精确的.     

非平衡随机效应模型中方差分量的经验Bayes检验

本文研究了非平衡随机效应模型中方差分量的经验Bayes 检验问题. 利用多元密度函数核估计方法构造了参数的经验Bayes(EB)判决函数,证明了该判决函数的渐近最优性,得到了其收敛速度,并给出了一个满足本文结论条件的先验分布.     

双截尾Tobit模型中的随机加权逼近方法

本文研究双截尾删失回归模型中参数的随机加权估计(RWE),获得了RWE的统计渐近性质,如相合性和渐近分布.本文证明了RWE在给定样本下的条件渐近分布与参数的最小绝对偏差(LAD)估计的渐近分布是一样的,则可以利用RWE的条件分布去逼近回归参数的LAD估计的分布,从而避免冗余参数的估计,如误差项的密度函数.另外,本文也提出了一个M检验统计量和随机加权M检验统计量(RWM)来检验参数的线性假设问题,建立了该检验的统计性质.数值模拟和实际数据分析结果表明所提方法是可行的.     

右删失数据下分位数回归的光滑经验似然检验

关于线性分位数回归模型的参数检验问题,对完全观测数据,已有文献用经验似然(EL)法和光滑经验似然(SEL)法构造的检验统计量在原假设下均以卡方分布χ_M~2为渐近分布.对右删失数据,已有文献用EL法构造的检验统计量以加权卡方分布为渐近分布,而权重是待估的.对右删失数据,本文用EL法和SEL法构造的检验统计量在原假设下均依分布收敛到χ_M~2,因此无需估计权重.由于SEL法的估计函数是光滑的,故可以进行Bartlett纠偏.随机模拟结果表明与已有的方法相比,SEL法经过Bartlett纠偏后有更高的精度.     

基于经验似然的Logistic回归模型的变点检验

基于经验似然对Logistic回归模型进行变点检验及估计.通过建立变点模型,构造经验对数似然比统计量,在大样本下,证明了经验对数似然比统计量与经典参数对数似然比统计量具有相同的极值分布,同时得到变点的估计及估计的相合性,并通过数值模拟及实例说明经验似然方法检验变点的可行性.     

复合LINEX对称损失下BurrⅫ分布参数的Bayes估计

在复合LINEX对称损失函数下,研究BurrⅫ分布参数的Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计,并通过随机数值模拟检验参数的Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计的合理性及优良性.     

因变量缺失下部分线性可加模型的估计和检验

本文研究部分线性可加模型在因变量存在缺失情形下的统计推断问题. 首先基于完整数据方法提出了参数分量的Profile 最小二乘估计并证明估计量的渐近正态性. 为了给出参数分量的区间估计,构造了渐近分布为卡方分布的经验似然统计量. 为了检验参数分量的线性约束条件, 构造了调整的广义似然比检验统计量, 当原假设成立时其渐近分布为卡方分布,从而将广义似然比检验推广到了缺失数据情形. 最后通过数值模拟验证所提方法的有效性.     

广义Pareto分布参数的经验Bayes检验问题

讨论了独立同分布样本情形广义Pareto分布参数的经验Bayes单侧检验问题,利用核密度函数的核估计构造了参数的经验Bayes检验函数,并在一定的条件下,证明了此经验Bayes检验函数的渐近最优性,获得了其收敛速度.     

随机B-F准备金模型中事故年索赔均值的信度估计

在B-F准备金模型中,事故年均值的估计是一个非常关键的估计量,然而传统的做法是假定事故年均值存在某个先验估计,这个先验估计是根据以往的经验资料由精算师确定的,具有很大的主观性.若先验估计选择合适,则能得到准备金的准确估计,反之,若先验估计选取错误,则给准备金估计带来较大的误差.本文提出改进的随机B-F准备金模型,利用信度理论的思想给出事故年随机索赔均值的信度估计,进而利用经验贝叶斯的方法得到了先验分布中结构参数的估计,最后得到责任准备金的经验贝叶斯估计.我们利用数值模拟的方法验证了事故年均值的经验贝叶斯的均方误差.结论显示,这种随机B-F模型的经验贝叶斯估计是有效的.最后,给出保险公司的实际例子,将本文得到的准备金经验贝叶斯估计与传统的B-F估计和链梯法估计进行了比较.     

复合LINEX对称损失下BurrXII分布参数的Bayes估计

在复合LINEX对称损失函数下,研究Burr XII分布参数的Bayes估计和EBayes估计,并通过随机数值模拟检验参数的Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计的合理性及优良性.     

A characterization of second order efficiency in a curved exponential family

Summary The optimality of estimation method is investigated in a curved exponential family. A risk function, which is an extension of a residual sum of squares in regression analysis, is introduced. It is shown that second order efficiency of an estimation method is equivalent to attain the minimum among limiting risks of all estimation methods.     

Maximum a Posteriori Sequence Estimation Using Monte Carlo Particle Filters

We develop methods for performing maximum a posteriori (MAP) sequence estimation in non-linear non-Gaussian dynamic models. The methods rely on a particle cloud representation of the filtering distribution which evolves through time using importance sampling and resampling ideas. MAP sequence estimation is then performed using a classical dynamic programming technique applied to the discretised version of the state space. In contrast with standard approaches to the problem which essentially compare only the trajectories generated directly during the filtering stage, our method efficiently computes the optimal trajectory over all combinations of the filtered states. A particular strength of the method is that MAP sequence estimation is performed sequentially in one single forwards pass through the data without the requirement of an additional backward sweep. An application to estimation of a non-linear time series model and to spectral estimation for time-varying autoregressions is described.     

Finding an inner estimation of the solution set of a fuzzy linear system

In this paper, we consider the problem of finding an inner estimation of the solution set of a fuzzy linear system with a real-valued coefficient matrix and a fuzzy-valued right-hand side vector. The proposed idea is based on the utilization of interval Gaussian elimination procedure to produce an inner estimation of the solutions set. To this end, firstly we apply interval Gaussian elimination procedure to obtain the solution set of a fuzzy linear system and secondly, by limiting it via solving a crisp linear system, we find an inner estimation of the solutions set, such that it satisfies the related fuzzy linear system. Finally, several numerical examples are given to show the efficiency and ability of our method.     

Estimation of a Support Curve via Order Statistics

This paper deals with nonparametric estimation of the boundary curve of the support of a bivariate density function. This estimation problem arises in various contexts, such as for example scatterpoint image analysis and frontier estimation in econometrics. The setup in this paper is a general one, allowing the bivariate density function to be infinite, bounded away from zero or zero at the boundary. Two estimators for the boundary curve are introduced, both based on order statistics. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators and their rate of convergence are established. Via a comparison of the rates of convergence we recommend which estimator to use in a particular situation. Both estimators can be used as an initial estimator in a two-stage procedure, designed for getting a better estimation. Simulation studies demonstrate the finite-sample behavior of the estimators and the proposed two-stage procedure. We illustrate the procedure on a data set on American electric utility companies.     

On a proper way to select population failure distribution and a stochastic optimization method in parameter estimation

It is widely accepted that the Weibull distribution plays an important role in reliability applications. The reliability of a product or a system is the probability that the product or the system will still function for a specified time period when operating under some confined conditions. Parameter estimation for the three parameter Weibull distribution has been studied by many researchers in the past. Maximum likelihood has traditionally been the main method of estimation for Weibull parameters along with other recently proposed hybrids of optimization methods. In this paper, we use a stochastic optimization method called the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to carry out the estimation. The method is extremely flexible and inference for any quantity of interest is easily obtained.     

On the stability of inner and outer approximations of a convex compact set by a ball

The finite-dimensional problems of outer and inner estimation of a convex compact set by a ball of some norm (circumscribed and inscribed ball problems) are considered. The stability of the solution with respect to the error in the specification of the estimated compact set is generally characterized. A new solution criterion for the outer estimation problem is obtained that relates the latter to the inner estimation problem for the lower Lebesgue set of the distance function to the most distant point of the estimated compact set. A quantitative estimate for the stability of the center of an inscribed ball is given under the additional assumption that the compact set is strongly convex. Assuming that the used norm is strongly quasi-convex, a quantitative stability estimate is obtained for the center of a circumscribed ball.     

Improved estimation of duality gap in binary quadratic programming using a weighted distance measure

We present in this paper an improved estimation of duality gap between binary quadratic program and its Lagrangian dual. More specifically, we obtain this improved estimation using a weighted distance measure between the binary set and certain affine subspace. We show that the optimal weights can be computed by solving a semidefinite programming problem. We further establish a necessary and sufficient condition under which the weighted distance measure gives a strictly tighter estimation of the duality gap than the existing estimations.     

Pointwise adaptive estimation of a multivariate function

In this paper, we address the problem of pointwise estimation in the Gaussian white noise model. We propose a new data-driven procedure that achieves (up to a multiplicative logarithmic term) the minimax rate of convergence over a scale of anisotropic Hölder spaces. Moreover we present a general criterion in order to define what should be an “optimal” estimation procedure and we prove that our procedure satisfies this criterion. The extra logarithmic term can thus be viewed as an unavoidable price to pay for adaptation.     

Practical estimation of a splitting parameter for a spectral method for the ternary Cahn–Hilliard system with a logarithmic free energy

We propose a practical estimation of a splitting parameter for a spectral method for the ternary Cahn–Hilliard system with a logarithmic free energy. We use Eyre's convex splitting scheme for the time discretization and a Fourier spectral method for the space variables. Given an absolute temperature, we find composition values that make the total free energy be minimum. Then, we find the splitting parameter value that makes the two split homogeneous free energies be convex on the neighborhood of the local minimum concentrations. For general use, we also propose a sixth‐order polynomial approximation of the minimum concentration and derive a useful formula for the practical estimation of the splitting parameter in terms of the absolute temperature. The numerical tests are phase separation and total energy decrease with different temperature values. The linear stability analysis shows a good agreement between the exact and numerical solutions with an optimal value s. Various computational experiments confirm that the proposed splitting parameter estimation gives stable numerical results. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Maximum likelihood estimator consistency for a ballistic random walk in a parametric random environment

We consider a one dimensional ballistic random walk evolving in an i.i.d. parametric random environment. We provide a maximum likelihood estimation procedure of the parameters based on a single observation of the path till the time it reaches a distant site, and prove that the estimator is consistent as the distant site tends to infinity. Our main tool consists in using the link between random walks and branching processes in random environments and explicitly characterising the limiting distribution of the process that arises. We also explore the numerical performance of our estimation procedure.