基于结构元最小二乘序的模糊线性回归

在具有模糊观测数据的线性回归问题中,通过定义模糊序指标实现模糊数的排序,借助经典最小二乘法原理,给出了使平方误差和在此排序方法下达到最小的模糊回归系数最小二乘序估计方法。三个例子的结果表明,文中的最小二乘方法能很好的对输入和输出为模糊数,回归系数为精确值的回归模型进行估计,更重要的是,此方法不仅对三角模糊数适用,对其他类型的模糊观测数据也适用。     

系数为梯形模糊数的模糊回归分析的最小二乘法

由于模糊数往往可以用梯形模糊数来逼近,因此对梯形模糊数的模糊回归模型的研究就有一定的实用价值.采用最小二乘的方法,针对输入为精确数、输出和回归系数都是梯形模糊数的模糊线性回归模型,讨论了该模型回归系数的最小二乘估计及误差项的估计,实例说明了提出的参数估计的拟合度比较好.     

基于广义最大熵的具有模糊输入输出的回归模型的参数估计

模糊回归是在模糊系统中建立因变量与一组自变量之间关系的重要工具,以评估模糊自变量如何影响模糊响应变量的过程。当系统中出现小样本或者非列满秩设计矩阵时,模糊最小二乘法可能得出偏误估计。本文基于文献[13]中的多元线性回归模型,利用广义最大熵方法,针对模糊输入模糊输出数据,给出线性回归模型的参数估计和算法步骤。当输入或输出数据退化为清晰值时,该估计退化为清晰输入模糊输出或者模糊输入清晰输出的回归模型参数估计。本文结合模拟数据和实例数据,将广义最大熵方法与模糊最小二乘方法、岭估计方法进行比较研究,结果显示广义最大熵方法的可行性和有效性。     

模糊线性回归模型的约束最小二乘估计

自Tanaka等1982年提出模糊回归概念以来,该问题已得到广泛的研究。作为主要估计方法之一的模糊最小二乘估计以其与统计最小二乘估计的密切联系更受到人们的重视。本文依据适当定义的两个模糊数之间的距离,提出了模糊线性回归模型的一个约束最小二乘估计方法,该方法不仅能使估计的模糊参数的宽度具有非负性而且估计的模糊参数的中心线与传统的最小二乘估计相一致。最后,通过数值例子说明了所提方法的具体应用。     

基于非对称指数型模糊数的模糊回归在害虫预报上的应用(Ⅱ)

讨论了输入为精确数、输出为模糊数的模糊回归模型,给出了模型的α-截集估计和最小绝对值偏差估计,并用实例说明了方法的可行性.     

基于多目标规划法的模糊线性回归分析

讨论输入、输出均为模糊数,回归系数为实数时的模糊线性回归分析。由于模糊最小二乘线性回归容易受异常值的影响,而最小一乘法能有效地降低回归模型的误差。为此,基于最小一乘法,建立多目标规划模型并将其转化为非线性规划问题进行求解,从而实现模糊线性回归模型的参数估计。最后,结合一个数值实例,验证和比较该方法的合理性和优越性。     

基于具有LR型模糊输出回归模型的保费预测

在保费预测研究中,提出了一种基于模糊回归模型的预测方法.采用模糊最小二乘法,针对清晰输入和LR型模糊输出,在考虑输出量隶属函数类型存在差异问题基础之上,得到模型回归系数的迭代解.通过最小二乘估计的定性分析,给出检验模型拟合度的指标.结合保费数据的预测结果表明模型可行且具有较强的解释能力.     

带模糊回归参数的线性回归模型

本文讨论了数值输入模糊数输出的观测数据的线性最小二乘拟合问题，建立了数值空间到模糊数空间的带模糊回归参数的线性回归模型，证明了模型解的存在性和唯一性，并得到了解的表达式。本模型应用简便，具有实用价值。     

基于非对称指数型模糊数的模糊回归在害虫预报上的应用(Ⅰ)

给出了描述非对称指数型模糊数近似程度的贴近度的定义及其表达式;在此基础上建立了输入、输出为模糊数,系数为精确数的模糊多元回归模型,并应用该模型对山东南部农田鼠害夏峰期发生率进行了预测,结果与实际情况比较吻合.     

结构元方法的模糊线性回归模型

针对截集思想所转化的线性规划模型结构复杂、可操作差的问题.利用结构元方法重新考察含有模糊系数的模糊线性回归问题.定义了一类结构元加权内积,诱导出了模糊数的距离;利用最小二乘原理,给出一类含有模糊系数的多元模糊回归模型的解析表达式.通过实例说明方法的有效性.     

模糊时间序列模型的辨识

可能性线性系统的输出时间序列可用模糊数来表示，我们称其为模糊时间序列（ＦＴＳ），这篇论文提出了ＦＴＳ分析的新方法，并研究它的参数估计和模型定价。两个仿真例子表明本文提出的方法对ＦＴＳ分析是非常有效的。     

Maximum likelihood estimation from fuzzy data using the EM algorithm

A method is proposed for estimating the parameters in a parametric statistical model when the observations are fuzzy and are assumed to be related to underlying crisp realizations of a random sample. This method is based on maximizing the observed-data likelihood defined as the probability of the fuzzy data. It is shown that the EM algorithm may be used for that purpose, which makes it possible to solve a wide range of statistical problems involving fuzzy data. This approach, called the fuzzy EM (FEM) method, is illustrated using three classical problems: normal mean and variance estimation from a fuzzy sample, multiple linear regression with crisp inputs and fuzzy outputs, and univariate finite normal mixture estimation from fuzzy data.     

Fuzzy modelling with tolerances

We consider the problem of the resolution of fuzzy equation systems: A certain number of fuzzy inputs and outputs is given. How can we determine a fuzzy relation which describes the behaviour of the object under consideration? When attributing this problem to fuzzy equations in the classical sense it may happen that a solution does not exist. Therefore we introduce fuzzy tolerances as an extension of the solvability conception. For this problem we get the whole solution set by means of posets. Moreover, we consider the inverse problem: How to determine tolerances to get consistency (i.e. at least one solution) for the arising equation system.     

Fuzzy data envelopment analysis (DEA): Model and ranking method

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a very effective method to evaluate the relative efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs). Since the data of production processes cannot be precisely measured in some cases, the uncertain theory has played an important role in DEA. This paper attempts to extend the traditional DEA models to a fuzzy framework, thus producing a fuzzy DEA model based on credibility measure. Following is a method of ranking all the DMUs. In order to solve the fuzzy model, we have designed the hybrid algorithm combined with fuzzy simulation and genetic algorithm. When the inputs and outputs are all trapezoidal or triangular fuzzy variables, the model can be transformed to linear programming. Finally, a numerical example is presented to illustrate the fuzzy DEA model and the method of ranking all the DMUs.     

模糊数据的线性回归模型

研究观测数据为模糊数据的统计线性回归模型 ,由该模型所得回归系数非模糊 ,易于应用。对于对称三角模糊数据一元线性回归给出最优解的解析表达式 ;将对称三角模糊数多元线性回归问题给出转化为一类二次规划问题的方法 ;证明了最优解的存在性和估计量的无偏性。     

Cost,Revenue and Profit Efficiency Models in Generalized Fuzzy Data Envelopment Analysis

One of the most important information given by data envelopment analysis models is the cost, revenue and profit efficiency of decision making units (DMUs). Cost efficiency is defined as the ratio of minimum costs to current costs, while revenue efficiency is defined as the ratio of maximum revenue to current revenue of the DMU. This paper presents a framework where data envelopment analysis (DEA) is used to measure cost, revenue and profit efficiency with fuzzy data. In such cases, the classical models cannot be used, because input and output data appear in the form of ranges. When the data are fuzzy, the cost, revenue and profit efficiency measures calculated from the data should be uncertain as well. Fuzzy DEA models emerge as another class of DEA models to account for imprecise inputs and outputs for DMUs. Although several approaches for solving fuzzy DEA models have been developed, numerous deficiencies including the $\alpha$-cut approaches and types of fuzzy numbers must still be improved. This scheme embraces evaluation method based on vector for proposed fuzzy model. This paper proposes generalized cost, revenue and profit efficiency models in fuzzy data envelopment analysis. The practical application of these models is illustrated by a numerical example.     

带有模糊系数的投资组合模型研究

在证券市场,由于各种不确定因素的存在,证券的预期收益率是难以精确估算的。本文采用模糊数来处理不确定性,提出了一种基于模糊收益率的投资组合模型。为度量投资组合的风险,将绝对偏差扩展到模糊情形。通过引入模糊数绝对值的概念和不等关系的两种占优准则,将该模型转化为相应的确定性线性规划问题,投资者可根据自己的主观态度选择参数和投资策略。最后用一个具体例子验证了模型的合理性和有效性。     

Inherited Fuzzy Interpolation Based on the Inherited Lower-upper Factorization

In this paper, a new scheme is proposed to find the fuzzy interpolation polynomial. In this case, the nodes are crisp data and the values are fuzzy numbers. In order to obtain the interpolation polynomial, a linear system is solved with crisp coefficients matrix and fuzzy right hand side. Then, the inherited lower-upper (LU) triangular factorization and inherited interpolation are applied to solve this system. The examples illustrate the applicability, simplicity and efficiency of the proposed method.