Analytic and numerical analysis of some statistical features of fragmentation processes

In this work, we investigate the following inhomogeneous model of fragmentation with an exponential splitting probability: suppose that an initial particle having a mass x₀>0 (large enough) is broken, with a size-dependent probability , into b>1 pieces. With probability 1−p(x₀), this fragment is left unchanged for ever. The process of fragmentation is repeated recursively for all pieces.Some statistical features are studied, chiefly the fragment size distribution, number of fragments and partition function of the random fragmentation tree. Also, we give details of the numerical analysis of these features.     

Canonical representation of conditionally specified multivariate discrete distributions

Most work on conditionally specified distributions has focused on approaches that operate on the probability space, and the constraints on the probability space often make the study of their properties challenging. We propose decomposing both the joint and conditional discrete distributions into characterizing sets of canonical interactions, and we prove that certain interactions of a joint distribution are shared with its conditional distributions. This invariance opens the door for checking the compatibility between conditional distributions involving the same set of variables. We formulate necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of discrete conditional models, and we show how a joint distribution can be easily computed from the pool of interactions collected from the conditional distributions. Hence, the methods can be used to calculate the exact distribution of a Gibbs sampler. Furthermore, issues such as how near compatibility can be reconciled are also discussed. Using mixed parametrization, we show that the proposed approach is based on the canonical parameters, while the conventional approaches are based on the mean parameters. Our advantage is partly due to the invariance that holds only for the canonical parameters.     

Tail order and intermediate tail dependence of multivariate copulas

In order to study copula families that have tail patterns and tail asymmetry different from multivariate Gaussian and t copulas, we introduce the concepts of tail order and tail order functions. These provide an integrated way to study both tail dependence and intermediate tail dependence. Some fundamental properties of tail order and tail order functions are obtained. For the multivariate Archimedean copula, we relate the tail heaviness of a positive random variable to the tail behavior of the Archimedean copula constructed from the Laplace transform of the random variable, and extend the results of Charpentier and Segers [7] [A. Charpentier, J. Segers, Tails of multivariate Archimedean copulas, Journal of Multivariate Analysis 100 (7) (2009) 1521–1537] for upper tails of Archimedean copulas. In addition, a new one-parameter Archimedean copula family based on the Laplace transform of the inverse Gamma distribution is proposed; it possesses patterns of upper and lower tails not seen in commonly used copula families. Finally, tail orders are studied for copulas constructed from mixtures of max-infinitely divisible copulas.     

Some notes on extremal discriminant analysis

Classical discriminant analysis focusses on Gaussian and nonparametric models where in the second case the unknown densities are replaced by kernel densities based on the training sample. In the present article we assume that it suffices to base the classification on exceedances above higher thresholds, which can be interpreted as observations in a conditional framework. Therefore, the statistical modeling of truncated distributions is merely required. In this context, a nonparametric modeling is not adequate because the kernel method is inaccurate in the upper tail region. Yet one may deal with truncated parametric distributions like the Gaussian ones. Our primary aim is to replace truncated Gaussian distributions by appropriate generalized Pareto distributions and to explore properties and the relationship of discriminant functions in both models.     

A class of models for uncorrelated random variables

We consider the class of multivariate distributions that gives the distribution of the sum of uncorrelated random variables by the product of their marginal distributions. This class is defined by a representation of the assumption of sub-independence, formulated previously in terms of the characteristic function and convolution, as a weaker assumption than independence for derivation of the distribution of the sum of random variables. The new representation is in terms of stochastic equivalence and the class of distributions is referred to as the summable uncorrelated marginals (SUM) distributions. The SUM distributions can be used as models for the joint distribution of uncorrelated random variables, irrespective of the strength of dependence between them. We provide a method for the construction of bivariate SUM distributions through linking any pair of identical symmetric probability density functions. We also give a formula for measuring the strength of dependence of the SUM models. A final result shows that under the condition of positive or negative orthant dependence, the SUM property implies independence.     

Near-exact distributions for the independence and sphericity likelihood ratio test statistics

In this paper we show how, based on a decomposition of the likelihood ratio test for sphericity into two independent tests and a suitably developed decomposition of the characteristic function of the logarithm of the likelihood ratio test statistic to test independence in a set of variates, we may obtain extremely well-fitting near-exact distributions for both test statistics. Since both test statistics have the distribution of the product of independent Beta random variables, it is possible to obtain near-exact distributions for both statistics in the form of Generalized Near-Integer Gamma distributions or mixtures of these distributions. For the independence test statistic, numerical studies and comparisons with asymptotic distributions proposed by other authors show the extremely high accuracy of the near-exact distributions developed as approximations to the exact distribution. Concerning the sphericity test statistic, comparisons with formerly developed near-exact distributions show the advantages of these new near-exact distributions.     

Bootstrap of deviation probabilities with applications

We show that under different moment bounds on the underlying variables, bootstrap approximation to the large deviation probabilities of standardized sample sum, based on independent random variables, is valid for a wider zone of n, the sample size, compared to the classical normal tail probability approximation. As an application, different notions of efficiency for statistical tests are considered from Bayesian point of view. In particular, efficiency due to Pitman (1938) [11], Chernoff (1952) [1], and Bayes risk efficiency due to Rubin and Sethuraman (1965) [12] turn out to be special cases with the choice of the weight function; i.e., prior density times loss.     

On testing equality of pairwise rank correlations in a multivariate random vector

Spearman’s rank-correlation coefficient (also called Spearman’s rho) represents one of the best-known measures to quantify the degree of dependence between two random variables. As a copula-based dependence measure, it is invariant with respect to the distribution’s univariate marginal distribution functions. In this paper, we consider statistical tests for the hypothesis that all pairwise Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector are equal. The tests are nonparametric and their asymptotic distributions are derived based on the asymptotic behavior of the empirical copula process. Only weak assumptions on the distribution function, such as continuity of the marginal distributions and continuous partial differentiability of the copula, are required for obtaining the results. A nonparametric bootstrap method is suggested for either estimating unknown parameters of the test statistics or for determining the associated critical values. We present a simulation study in order to investigate the power of the proposed tests. The results are compared to a classical parametric test for equal pairwise Pearson’s correlation coefficients in a multivariate random vector. The general setting also allows the derivation of a test for stochastic independence based on Spearman’s rho.     

The product of two dependent random variables with regularly varying or rapidly varying tails

Let X and Y be two nonnegative and dependent random variables following a generalized Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern distribution. In this short note, we study the impact of a dependence structure of X and Y on the tail behavior of XY. We quantify the impact as the limit, as x→∞, of the quotient of Pr(XY>x) and Pr(X^∗Y^∗>x), where X^∗ and Y^∗ are independent random variables identically distributed as X and Y, respectively. We obtain an explicit expression for this limit when X is regularly varying or rapidly varying tailed.     

Deviations of discrete distributions and a question of Móri

In this note, we consider a question of Móri regarding estimating the deviation of the kth terms of two discrete probability distributions in terms of the supremum distance between their generating functions over the interval [0,1]. An optimal bound for distributions on finite support is obtained. Properties of Chebyshev polynomials are employed.     

From Archimedean to Liouville copulas

We use a recent characterization of the d-dimensional Archimedean copulas as the survival copulas of d-dimensional simplex distributions (McNeil and Nešlehová (2009) [1]) to construct new Archimedean copula families, and to examine the relationship between their dependence properties and the radial parts of the corresponding simplex distributions. In particular, a new formula for Kendall’s tau is derived and a new dependence ordering for non-negative random variables is introduced which generalises the Laplace transform order. We then generalise the Archimedean copulas to obtain Liouville copulas, which are the survival copulas of Liouville distributions and which are non-exchangeable in general. We derive a formula for Kendall’s tau of Liouville copulas in terms of the radial parts of the corresponding Liouville distributions.     

Marginal parameterizations of discrete models defined by a set of conditional independencies

It is well-known that a conditional independence statement for discrete variables is equivalent to constraining to zero a suitable set of log–linear interactions. In this paper we show that this is also equivalent to zero constraints on suitable sets of marginal log–linear interactions, that can be formulated within a class of smooth marginal log–linear models. This result allows much more flexibility than known until now in combining several conditional independencies into a smooth marginal model. This result is the basis for a procedure that can search for such a marginal parameterization, so that, if one exists, the model is smooth.     

Orthant tail dependence of multivariate extreme value distributions

The orthant tail dependence describes the relative deviation of upper- (or lower-) orthant tail probabilities of a random vector from similar orthant tail probabilities of a subset of its components, and can be used in the study of dependence among extreme values. Using the conditional approach, this paper examines the extremal dependence properties of multivariate extreme value distributions and their scale mixtures, and derives the explicit expressions of orthant tail dependence parameters for these distributions. Properties of the tail dependence parameters, including their relations with other extremal dependence measures used in the literature, are discussed. Various examples involving multivariate exponential, multivariate logistic distributions and copulas of Archimedean type are presented to illustrate the results.     

Empirical Bayes predictive densities for high-dimensional normal models

This paper addresses the problem of estimating the density of a future outcome from a multivariate normal model. We propose a class of empirical Bayes predictive densities and evaluate their performances under the Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. We show that these empirical Bayes predictive densities dominate the Bayesian predictive density under the uniform prior and thus are minimax under some general conditions. We also establish the asymptotic optimality of these empirical Bayes predictive densities in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces through an oracle inequality.     

Asymptotic expansions of maximum likelihood estimators for small diffusions via the theory of Malliavin-Watanabe

Summary The asymptotic expansions of the probability distributions of statistics for the small diffusion are derived by means of the Malliavin calculus. From this the second order efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator is proved.The research was supported in part by Grant-in-Aid for Encouragement of Young Scientists from the Ministry of Education, Science and Culture     

Extended Deligne–Lusztig varieties for general and special linear groups

We give a generalisation of Deligne–Lusztig varieties for general and special linear groups over finite quotients of the ring of integers in a non-archimedean local field. Previously, a generalisation was given by Lusztig by attaching certain varieties to unramified maximal tori inside Borel subgroups. In this paper we associate a family of so-called extended Deligne–Lusztig varieties to all tamely ramified maximal tori of the group.Moreover, we analyse the structure of various generalised Deligne–Lusztig varieties, and show that the “unramified” varieties, including a certain natural generalisation, do not produce all the irreducible representations in general. On the other hand, we prove results which together with some computations of Lusztig show that for SL₂(Fq???/(?²)), with odd q, the extended Deligne–Lusztig varieties do indeed afford all the irreducible representations.     

Asymptotic theory for maximum deviations of sample covariance matrix estimates

We consider asymptotic distributions of maximum deviations of sample covariance matrices, a fundamental problem in high-dimensional inference of covariances. Under mild dependence conditions on the entries of the data matrices, we establish the Gumbel convergence of the maximum deviations. Our result substantially generalizes earlier ones where the entries are assumed to be independent and identically distributed, and it provides a theoretical foundation for high-dimensional simultaneous inference of covariances.     

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of estimators in canonical correlation analysis under nonnormality

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of typical estimators in canonical correlation analysis under nonnormality are obtained. The expansions include the Edgeworth expansions up to order O(1/n) for the parameter estimators standardized by the population standard errors, and the corresponding expansion by Hall's method with variable transformation. The expansions for the Studentized estimators are also given using the Cornish-Fisher expansion and Hall's method. The parameter estimators are dealt with in the context of estimation for the covariance structure in canonical correlation analysis. The distributions of the associated statistics (the structure of the canonical variables, the scaled log likelihood ratio and Rozeboom's between-set correlation) are also expanded. The robustness of the normal-theory asymptotic variances of the sample canonical correlations and associated statistics are shown when a latent variable model holds. Simulations are performed to see the accuracy of the asymptotic results in finite samples.     

A class of weighted multivariate normal distributions and its properties

This article proposes a class of weighted multivariate normal distributions whose probability density function has the form of a product of a multivariate normal density and a weighting function. The class is obtained from marginal distributions of various doubly truncated multivariate normal distributions. The class strictly includes the multivariate normal and multivariate skew-normal. It is useful for selection modeling and inequality constrained normal mean vector analysis. We report on a study of some distributional properties and the Bayesian perspective of the class. A probabilistic representation of the distributions is also given. The representation is shown to be straightforward to specify the distribution and to implement computation, with output readily adapted for the required analysis. Necessary theories and illustrative examples are provided.