A Comparison of Methods for Estimating the Extremal Index

The extremal index, (01), is the key parameter when extending discussions of the limiting behavior of the extreme values from independent and identically distributed sequences to stationary sequences. As measures the limiting dependence of exceedances over a threshold u, as u tends to the upper endpoint of the distribution, it may not always be informative about the extremal dependence at levels of practical interest. Therefore we also consider a threshold-based extremal index, (u). We compare the performance of a range of different estimators for and (u) covering processes with < 1 and = 1. We find that the established methods for estimating actually estimate (u), so perform well only when (u) . For Markov processes, we introduce an estimator which is as good as the established methods when (u) but provides an improvement when (u) < = 1. We illustrate our methods using simulated data and daily rainfall measurements.     

A graded scale of parametric families of distributions,and parameter estimates based on the sample mean

Summary Denote by _k a class of familiesP={P} of distributions on the line R¹ depending on a general scalar parameter , being an interval of R¹, and such that the moments µ₁()=xdP ,...,µ_2k ()=x ^2k dP are finite, ₁ (), ..., _k (), _k+1 () ..., _k () exist and are continuous, with ₁ () 0, and _j +1 ()= ₁ () _j () +[₂() -₁()²] _j ()/ ₁ (), J=2, ..., k. Let ₁=¯x=x ₁ + ... +x _n/n, ₂=x ₁ ² + ... +x _n ²/n, ..., _k =(x ₁ ^k + ... +x _n ^k/n denote the sample moments constructed for a sample x₁, ..., x_n from a population with distribution Pg. We prove that the estimator of the parameter by the method of moments determined from the equation ₁= ₁() and depending on the observations x₁, ..., x_n only via the sample mean ¯x is asymptotically admissible (and optimal) in the class _k of the estimators determined by the estimator equations of the form ₀ () + ₁ () ₁ + ... + _k () _k =0 if and only ifP _k .The asymptotic admissibility (respectively, optimality) means that the variance of the limit, as n (normal) distribution of an estimator normalized in a standard way is less than the same characteristic for any estimator in the class under consideration for at least one 9 (respectively, for every ).The scales arise of classes _{1 2}... of parametric families and of classes _{1 2} ... of estimators related so that the asymptotic admissibility of an estimator by the method of moments in the class _k is equivalent to the membership of the familyP in the class _k .The intersection consists only of the families of distributions with densities of the form h(x) exp {C₀() + C₁() x } when for the latter the problem of moments is definite, that is, there is no other family with the same moments ₁ (), ₂ (), ...Such scales in the problem of estimating the location parameter were predicted by Linnik about 20 years ago and were constructed by the author in [1] (see also [2, 3]) in exact, not asymptotic, formulation.Translated from Problemy Ustoichivosti Stokhasticheskikh Modelei, pp. 41–47, 1981.     

The Busy Period of the M/GI/∞ Queue

An equation for the distribution Z() of the duration T of the busy period in a stationary M/GI/ service system is constructed from first principles. Two scenarios are examined, being distinguished by the half-plane Re()>₀ for some ₀0 in which the generic service time random variable S, always assumed to have a finite mean E(S), has an analytic Laplace–Stieltjes transform E(e^–S ). If ₀<0 then E(e^–T ) is analytic in a half-plane (₁,), where ₀₁<0 and ₁ is determined by the distribution of S; then for any 0<s<|₁|.When ₀=0, E(e^–T ) is analytic in (0,), and now more is known about T. Inequalities on the tail () are used to show that for any 1, E(T ) is finite if and only if E(S ) is finite. It follows that the point process consisting of the starting epochs of busy periods is long range dependent if and only if E(S ²)=, in which case it has Hurst index equal to [frac12](3–), where is the moment index of S.If also the tail (x)=Pr{Sx} of the service time distribution satisfies the subexponential density condition ₀ ^x (x–u) (u)du/ (x)2E(S) as x, then (x)/ (x)e^E(S), where is the arrival rate.     

Asymptotic Formulae and Divisor Problems

We investigate the asymptotic behaviour of the summatory functions of _z(n, ), _k(n, ) z ⁽ⁿ⁾ and _k(n, ) z ⁽ⁿ⁾.     

Parametric stochastic convexity and concavity of stochastic processes

A collection of random variables {X(), } is said to be parametrically stochastically increasing and convex (concave) in if X() is stochastically increasing in , and if for any increasing convex (concave) function , E(X()) is increasing and convex (concave) in whenever these expectations exist. In this paper a notion of directional convexity (concavity) is introduced and its stochastic analog is studied. Using the notion of stochastic directional convexity (concavity), a sufficient condition, on the transition matrix of a discrete time Markov process {X _n(), n=0,1,2,...}, which implies the stochastic monotonicity and convexity of {X _n(), }, for any n, is found. Through uniformization these kinds of results extend to the continuous time case. Some illustrative applications in queueing theory, reliability theory and branching processes are given.Supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, U.S.A.F., under Grant AFOSR-84-0205. Reproduction in whole or in part is permitted for any purpose by the United States Government.     

Lévy homeomorphic parametrization and exponential families

Summary Let P={P : } be an exponential family of probability distributions with the canonical parameter and consider the one to one mapping : P . It is shown that, under mild regularity assumptions, and ^–1 are continuous with respect to the Lévy metric in P and Euclidean metric in .     

Exact Solution of the Ising Model on the Cayley Tree with Competing Ternary and Binary Interactions

The exact solution is found for the problem of phase transitions in the Ising model with competing ternary and binary interactions. For the pair of parameters =(J) and ₁=₁(J ₁) in the plane (₁,), we find two critical curves such that a phase transition occurs for all pairs (₁,) lying between the curves.     

Radii of convexity and close-to-convexity of certain integral representations

Strict upper bounds are determined for ¦s(z)¦, ¦Re s(z)¦, and ¦Im s(z) ¦ in the class of functions s(z)=a _nzⁿ+a_n+1zⁿ⁺¹+... (n¹) regular in ¦z¦<1 and satisfying the condition ¦u (₁) –u (₂) ¦K¦ ₁- ₂¦, where U()=Re s (eⁱ ), K>0, and ₁ and ₂ are arbitrary real numbers. These bounds are used in the determination of radii of convexity and close-to-convexity of certain integral representations.Translated from Matematicheskie Zametki, Vol. 7, No. 5, pp. 581–592, May, 1970.The author wishes to thank L. A. Aksent'ev for his guidance in this work.     

The Berry-Esseen inequality for the distribution of the least square estimate

A nonlinear regression modelx _t=g_t(₀)+ _t,t1, is considered. Under a number of conditions on its elements _t and gt(₀) it is proved that the distribution of the normalized least square estimate of the parameter ₀ converges uniformly on the real axis to the standard normal law at least as quickly as a quantity of the order T^–1/2 as T , where T is the size of the sample, by which the estimate is formed.Translated from Matematicheskie Zametki, Vol. 20, No. 2, pp. 293–303, August, 1976.     

On the speed of convergence in the central limit theorem of log-likelihood ratio processes

Let , the parameter space, be an open subset ofR ^k ,k1. For each , let the r.v.'sX _n ,n=1, 2,... be defined on the probability space (X, P ) and take values in (S,S,L) whereS is a Borel subset of a Euclidean space andL is the -field of Borel subsets ofS. ForhR _k and a sequence of p.d. normalizing matrices _n = _n ^{k × k} (₀ set _n ^* = ^* = ₀ + _n h, where ₀ is the true value of , such that ^*, . Let _n (^*, _*)( be the log-likelihood ratio of the probability measure with respect to the probability measure , whereP _n is the restriction ofP over _n = (X ₁,X ₂,...,X _n . In this paper we, under a very general dependence setup obtain a rate of convergence of the normalized log-likelihood ratio statistic to Standard Normal Variable. Two examples are taken into account.     

Nonlinear instability of superposed magnetic fluids in the presence of an oblique magnetic field

The nonlinear evolution of interfacial waves separating two magnetic fluids subjected to an oblique magnetic field is studied in two dimensions, with the use of the method of multiple scales. It is shown that the evolution of the envelope is governed by two partial differential equations. These equations can be combined to yield two alternate Schrödinger equations with cubic nonlinearity; one of them leads to the determination of the cutoff wave number separating stable from unstable deformations while the other Schrödinger equation is used to analyze the stability of the system. The stability of the system is discussed both theoretically and computationally, and the stability diagrams are obtained. It is found in the linear theory that the oblique magnetic field has a stabilizing influence if 0 ₁ + ₂ < /2, or 3/2 < ₁ + ₂ 2 and a destabilizing influence if /2 < ₁ + ₂ < 3/2, where 0 _j , (j=1, 2) and , is the angle between the field and the horizontal axis.In the nonlinear theory, the stability analysis reveals that there exist different regions of stability and instability. It is reported that the oblique magnetic field plays a dual role in the stability criterion and the angles ₁ and ₂ play a distinctive role in this analysis besides the effect of the variation of the magnetic permeabilities.     

On dense sequences of polynomials in several variables

In the present paper a form of generalization of Gelfond's lemma on dense sequences of polynomials is proposed. For a set of complex numbers ₁, ..., _s we define the coefficients_gk( ₁, ..., _s ) (0ks) and give the relations between them and the transcendental degrees or the transcendence types of the field © ( ₁, ..., _s ) or its subfields.This work was completed at the Dept. of Math., Univ. of Southern Mississippi, USA in 1987.     

A decomposition for the exponential dispersion model generated by the invariant measure on the hyperboloid

For = ₀, ₁, ₂) andx=(x₀, x₁, x₂) in R³, define [,x] = ₀ x ₀ – ₁ x ₁ – ₂ x ₂,C = {x³:x ₀ > 0 and [x, x]>0},R(x)=([x, x]) ^1/2 forx inC andH ₁={xC: x₀>0,R(x)=1}. Define the measure onH ₁ such that if is inC and =R(), then exp (–[,x])(dx = ( exp )^–1. Therefore, is invariant under the action ofSO (1, 2), the connected component ofO(1, 2) containing the identity. We first prove that there exists a positive measure in ³ such that its Laplace transform is ( exp )^– if and only if >1. Finally, for 1 and inC, denotingP(,)(dx) = ( exp )^– exp (–[,x])(dx, we show that ifY ₀,...,Y _n aren+1 independent variables with densityP(,),j=0,...,n and ifS _k =X ₀ + ... +X _k andQ _k =R(S _k) –R(S _k–1) –R(Y _k),k=1,...,n, then then+1 statisticsD _n = [/,S _k ] –R _{k – 1} ),Q ₁,...,Q _n are independent random variables with the exponential () or gamma (1,1/) distribution.This research has been partially funded by NSERC Grant A8947.     

Solution of the nonlinear functional equations representing the roll gap relationships in a cold mill

In the development of a roll force model for cold rolling, techniques were developed for solving the system equations which are of general interest. This paper gives a brief introduction to the physical model but concentrates on the solution of the model equations and the simulation. An unusual feature of the model was that the calculated profiles had to satisfy a number of boundary conditions at different points throughout the roll arc. A new method was developed for calculating these profiles and for determining the gradient functions which satisfied the boundary constraints.Nomenclature p() pressure at roll angle - h() gauge - a() roll radius - y() yield stress - g _i () gradient function on iterationi - e() gauge error - (, ) transition function - H(–) Heaviside unit step function at = - (–) unit impulse function at = - H(, ₁, ₂) defined asH( – ₁) –H( – ₂) - angular position from the roll center line - _T angular limits of roll arc represented - _n angular position of the neutral angle - _i angular position ofith strip elastic-plastic boundary - _pi pressure change at the boundaryi - _i , _i , _i constants defined in Appendix A - k ₁,k ₂ elastic region constants - k total number of strip boundaries (elastic-plastic and entry and exit points) - R undeformed work roll radius - R _s roll separation—distance between roll centers - h ₀₁ unstrained gauge in an elastic region - h _in gauge of the strip at the entry to the roll gap - J gauge error cost function - <x, y> inner product ofx andy - x norm ofx - L ₂[0, _T ] the space of Lebesgue square-integrable functions defined on the interval [0, _T ] - JUVY denotes (Dx)() =dx()/d The author would like to acknowledge the help given by Dr. G. F. Bryant, Director, and Mr. M. A. Fuller, Senior Research Engineer, the Industrial Automation Group, Imperial College of Science and Technology, London. He is also grateful to M. J. G. Henderson of the University of Birmingham for his advice and encouragement during the project. He would like to thank the Directors of GEC Electrical Projects Limited for allowing him to undertake the work and also Mr. J. McTaggart and Mr. C. McKenzie (GEC), Professor H. A. Prime of the University of Birmingham, and Dr. G. F. Bryant for arranging the project.     

Inner functions and related spaces of pseudocontinuable functions

Let be an inner function, let C, ¦¦=1. Then the harmonic function [(+)]/(–)] is the Poisson integral of a singular measure D. N. Clark's known theorem enables us to identify in a natural manner the space H² H² with the space L² ( ).Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov Leningradskogo Otdeleniya Matematicheskogo Instituta im. V. A. Steklova Akademii Nauk SSSR, Vol. 170, pp. 7–33, 1989.     

Admissibility of unbiased tests for a composite hypothesis with a restricted alternative

This paper discusses -admissiblility and d-admissiblity which are important concepts in studying the performance of statistical tests for composite hypotheses. A sufficient condition for -admissibility is presented. When =1/m, the Nomakuchi-Sakata test, which is uniformly more powerful than the likelihood ratio test for hypotheses min (₁, ₁) = 0 versus min (₁, ₁) > 0, is generalized for a class of distributions in an exponential family, and its unbiasedness and -admissibility are shown. Finally, the case of 1/m is discussed in brief.     

Ultraparabolic equations and unsteady heat transfer

The present paper is concerned with the boundary value problem for the equation _t + u· = k_yy + f. Existence and uniqueness of the generalized solution are proved.     

Minimum Divergence Estimators Based on Grouped Data

The paper considers statistical models with real-valued observations i.i.d. by F(x, ₀) from a family of distribution functions (F(x, ); ), R ^s , s 1. For random quantizations defined by sample quantiles (F _n ^–1 (₁),, F _n ^–1 ( _m–1)) of arbitrary fixed orders 0 < ₁ < _m-1 < 1, there are studied estimators _,n of ₀ which minimize -divergences of the theoretical and empirical probabilities. Under an appropriate regularity, all these estimators are shown to be as efficient (first order, in the sense of Rao) as the MLE in the model quantified nonrandomly by (F ^–1 (₁,₀),, F ^–1 ( _m–1, ₀)). Moreover, the Fisher information matrix I _m (₀, ) of the latter model with the equidistant orders = ( _j = j/m : 1 j m – 1) arbitrarily closely approximates the Fisher information J(₀) of the original model when m is appropriately large. Thus the random binning by a large number of quantiles of equidistant orders leads to appropriate estimates of the above considered type.     

Diffusion Equations and Geometric Inequalities

Let =(₀, ₁) be a fixed vector in R ² with strictly positive components and suppose ₀, ₁ > 0. Set = _{0 0} + _{1 1} and, if x ₀, x ₁ R ⁿ , set x = ₀ x ₀ + ₁ x ₁. Moreover, for any j {0, 1, }, let c _j : R ⁿ R be a continuous, bounded function and denote by p _j , c _j (t, x, y) the fundamental solution of the diffusion equation

Combinatorics and flexure

Combinatorial identities, trigonometric formulas, together with complex variable techniques are used to derive exact and closed expressions for the six flexure functions of certain isotropic cylinders under flexure. The cross sections are bounded either by the closed curvesr=a cosⁿ (/n) (–<) or the closed curvesr=asin(/n)ⁿ(–<), wheren isa positive integer (n>1).

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Résumé Des identiteés combinatoires et des formules trigonométriques avec des techniques de variables complexes sont utilisées pour dériver des expressions exactes et simples pour les six fonctions de flexion de quelques cylindres isotropiques. Les sections sont limitées par les courbes ferméesr=a cosⁿ /n(–) et les courbesr=asin/nⁿ(–) où est un entier positif (n>1).