CONTROL OF A METAPOPULATION HARVESTING MODEL FOR BLACK BEARS

ABSTRACT. We develop a metapopulation harvesting model that includes density‐dependent immigration and emigration and apply Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive an optimal harvesting and reserve design strategy. The model is designed to mimic the black bear population of eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina. Model results suggest that a forest region's population can be maintained despite high harvest levels due to emigration from a connected, un‐harvested park region. The amount of shared border between the park and forest region is important in determining the optimal harvesting strategy. This technique offers new insight on the spatial control of protected populations.     

具有多平衡解的种群发展方程的稳定性

本文考虑具有年龄结构的种群动力系统模型 ,讨论了该模型解的渐近性质 ,证明了该模型有多个平衡解时 ,其平衡解中哪些是稳定的 ,哪些是不稳定的     

A NUMERICAL STUDY OF THE SPRUCE BUDWORM REACTION‐DIFFUSION EQUATION WITH HOSTILE BOUNDARIES

ABSTRACT. One of the interesting single species reaction diffusion problems is the spruce budworm model describing insect dispersal behavior. In an earlier study, Singh et al. [7] considered the two‐dimensional spruce budworm model with density dependent diffusion balanced by an artificial wind equal to the population gradient. Here we extend the model by considering more realistic density dependent diffusion and advection with hostile boundaries. We solve this model using a splitting method in which advection, diffusion and reaction processes are separated. Various hostility conditions have been used at the boundary. The numerical results show that the population moves quickly to a steady state outbreak situation when the advective components due to the density dependent diffusion are included.     

Modeling the effects of variable external influences and demographic processes on innovation diffusion

In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model for innovation diffusion is proposed and analyzed by considering the effects of variable external influences (cumulative marketing efforts) and human population (variable marketing potential) in a society. The change in the population density is caused by various demographic processes such as immigration, emigration, intrinsic growth rate, death rate, etc.Thus, the problem of innovation diffusion is governed by three dynamic variables, namely, non adopters’ density, adopters’ density and the cumulative density of external influences. The model is analyzed by using the stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation.The model analysis shows that the main effect of the increase in cumulative density of external influences is to make the adopter population density reach its equilibrium at a much faster rate. It further shows that the density of adopters’ population increases as the parameters related to increase in non adopters’ population density increase. The effects of various parameters in the model on the nature of existing single equilibrium have also been discussed by using numerical simulation. It is shown that parameters related to the growth of non adopters’ population density have stabilizing effects on the system.     

斑须蝽种群空间分布格局Weibull分布的拟合

Weibull分布的概率密度函数为f(x) =(c/b) [(x -a) /b]c -1exp [(x a) /b]c ,x≥a。本文首次用于拟合班须蝽三代卵块的空间分布 ,8批抽样数据拟合结果表明班须蝽三代卵块在烟田的空间分布遵循Weibull分布。从而丰富了班须蝽种群空间格局的分布理论。同时 ,利用斑须蝽种群空间格局的资料探讨了Weibull分布的参数b、c与种群密度及种群聚集度之间的关系 ,结果表明 ,尺度参数b与种群密度、种群聚集度间均分别存在极显著的线性相关关系 ,形状参数c与种群密度存在极显著的正幂函数相关关系 ,与种群聚集度之间存在极显著负幂函数关系。     

On the effects of nonlinear boundary conditions in diffusive logistic equations on bounded domains

We study a diffusive logistic equation with nonlinear boundary conditions. The equation arises as a model for a population that grows logistically inside a patch and crosses the patch boundary at a rate that depends on the population density. Specifically, the rate at which the population crosses the boundary is assumed to decrease as the density of the population increases. The model is motivated by empirical work on the Glanville fritillary butterfly. We derive local and global bifurcation results which show that the model can have multiple equilibria and in some parameter ranges can support Allee effects. The analysis leads to eigenvalue problems with nonstandard boundary conditions.     

On global solutions of gravity driven nonhomogeneous viscous flows in a bounded domain

We consider an initial boundary value problem for nonhomogeneous Navier‐Stokes equations with a uniform gravitational field. For any given steady density profile whose derivatives are sufficiently close to a negative constant, we show that there exists a unique global solution if the initial perturbation with respect to the steady state is sufficiently small.     

Singular boundary method based on time‐dependent fundamental solutions for active noise control

Active noise control is an efficient strategy of noise control. A numerical wave shielding model to inhibit wave propagation, which can be considered as an extension of traditional active noise control, is established using the singular boundary method using time‐dependent fundamental solutions in this study. Two empirical formulas to evaluate the origin intensity factors with Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions are derived respectively. In comparison with other similar numerical methods, the method can obtain highly accurate results using very few boundary nodes and small CPU time. These meet the major technical requirements of simulation of active noise control. The subsequent numerical experiments show that the proposed model can shield efficiently from the wave propagation for both inner and exterior problems. By applying the newly derived empirical formulas, the CPU time of the singular boundary method is further reduced significantly, which makes the method a competitive new and efficient meshless method. In addition, the singular boundary method makes active noise control in an online manner via time‐dependent fundamental solutions as its basis functions.     

MODELING THE DEPLETION OF A RENEWABLE RESOURCE BY POPULATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION: EFFECT OF TECHNOLOGY ON ITS CONSERVATION

Abstract In this paper, a nonlinear mathematical model is proposed and analyzed to study the depletion of a renewable resource by population and industrialization with resource‐dependent migration. The effect of technology on resource conservation is also considered. In the modeling process, four variables are considered, namely, density of a renewable resource, population density, density of industrialization, and technological effort. Both the growth rate and carrying capacity of resource biomass, which follows logistic model, are assumed to be simultaneously depleted by densities of population and industrialization but it is conserved by technological effort. It is further assumed that densities of population and industrialization increase due to increase in the density of renewable resource. The growth rate of technological effort is assumed to be proportional to the difference of carrying capacity of resource biomass and its current density. The model is analyzed by using the stability theory of differential equations and computer simulation. The model analysis shows that the biomass density decreases due to increase in densities of population and industrialization. It decreases further as the resource‐dependent industrial migration increases. But the resource may never become extinct due to population and industrialization, if technological effort is applied appropriately for its conservation.     

Diffusive logistic equation with non-linear boundary conditions

We analyze the solutions of a population model with diffusion and logistic growth. In particular, we focus our study on a population living in a patch, Ω⊆Rn with n?1, that satisfies a certain non-linear boundary condition and on its survival when constant yield harvesting is introduced. We establish our existence results by the method of sub-super solutions.     

A remark on free boundary problem of 1‐D compressible Navier–Stokes equations with density‐dependent viscosity

In this paper, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the weak solution of the one‐dimensional compressible Navier–Stokes equations with density‐dependent viscosity µ(ρ)=ρ^θ with θ∈(0, γ?2], γ>1. The initial data are a perturbation of a corresponding steady solution and continuously contact with vacuum on the free boundary. The obtained results apply for the one‐dimensional Siant–Venant model of shallow water and generalize ones in (Arch. Rational Mech. Anal. 2006; 182: 223–253). Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sharp regularity estimates for solutions of the wave equation and their traces with prescribed neumann data

In this paper the regularity properties of second-order hyperbolic equations defined over a rectangular domain Θ with boundary Γ under the action of a Neumann boundary forcing term inL ² (0,T;H ^1/4 (Γ)) are investigated. With this given boundary input, we prove by a cosine operator/functional analytical approach that not only is the solution of the wave equation and its derivatives continuous in time, with their pointwise values in a basic energy space (in the interior of Ω), but also that a trace regularity thereof can be assigned for the solution’s time derivative in an appropriate (negative) Sobolev space. This new-found information on the solution and its traces is crucial in handling a mathematical model derived for a particular fluid/structure interaction system.     

POPULATION‐LEVEL ANALYSIS AND VALIDATION OF AN INDIVIDUAL‐BASED CUTTHROAT TROUT MODEL

ABSTRACT. An individual‐based model of stream trout is analyzed by testing its ability to reproduce patterns of population‐level behavior observed in real trout: (1) “self‐thinning,” a negative power relation between weight and abundance; (2) a “critical period” of density‐dependent mortality in young‐of‐the‐year; (3) high and age‐specific inter‐annual variability in abundance; (4) density dependence in growth; and (5) fewer large trout when pool habitat is eliminated. The trout model successfully reproduced these patterns and was useful for evaluating their theoretical basis. The model analyses produced new explanations for some field observations and indicated that some patterns are less general than field studies indicate. The model did not reproduce field‐observed patterns of population variability by age class, discrepancies potentially explained by site differences, predation mortality being more stochastic than the model assumes, or uncertainty in the field study's age estimates.     

Birth-pulse models of Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility in mosquitoes for dengue virus control

Dengue fever, which affects more than 50 million people a year, is the most important arboviral disease in tropical countries. Mosquitoes are the principal vectors of the dengue virus but some endosymbiotic Wolbachia bacteria can stop the mosquitoes from reproducing and so interrupt virus transmission. A birth-pulse model of the spread of Wolbachia through a population of mosquitoes, incorporating the effects of cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) and different density dependent death rate functions, is proposed. Strategies for either eradicating mosquitoes or using population replacement by substituting uninfected mosquitoes with infected ones for dengue virus prevention were modeled. A model with a strong density dependent death function shows that population replacement can be realized if the initial ratio of number of infected to the total number of mosquitoes exceeds a critical value, especially when transmission from mother to offspring is perfect. However, with a weak density dependent death function, population eradication becomes difficult as the system’s solutions are sensitive to initial values. Using numerical methods, it was shown that population eradication may be achieved regardless of the infection ratio only when parameters lie in particular regions and the initial density of uninfected is low enough.     

Risk aggregation in multivariate dependent Pareto distributions

In this paper we obtain closed expressions for the probability distribution function of aggregated risks with multivariate dependent Pareto distributions. We work with the dependent multivariate Pareto type II proposed by Arnold (1983, 2015), which is widely used in insurance and risk analysis. We begin with an individual risk model, where the probability density function corresponds to a second kind beta distribution, obtaining the VaR, TVaR and several other tail risk measures. Then, we consider a collective risk model based on dependence, where several general properties are studied. We study in detail some relevant collective models with Poisson, negative binomial and logarithmic distributions as primary distributions. In the collective Pareto–Poisson model, the probability density function is a function of the Kummer confluent hypergeometric function, and the density of the Pareto–negative binomial is a function of the Gauss hypergeometric function. Using data based on one-year vehicle insurance policies taken out in 2004–2005 (Jong and Heller, 2008) we conclude that our collective dependent models outperform other collective models considered in the actuarial literature in terms of AIC and CAIC statistics.     

Dynamics of solutions of logistic equation with delay and diffusion in a planar domain

Theoretical and Mathematical Physics - We consider a boundary value problem based on a logistic model with delay and diffusion describing the dynamics of changes in the population density in a...     

Age‐dependent single‐species population dynamics with delayed argument

The model of age‐dependent population dynamics was for the first time described by McKendrick (1926). This model was based on the first‐order partial differential equation with the standard initial condition and the non‐local boundary condition in integral form. Gurtin and MacCamy in their paper (1974) analyzed a more general model, where the progress of the population depends on its number. They proved the existence of the unique solution to their model for all time. In our paper the results of Gurtin and MacCamy will be generalized on the case, when the dependence on a number of a population is delayed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Discrete-time host–parasitoid models with Allee effects: Density dependence versus parasitism

We present two general discrete-time host–parasitoid models with Allee effects on the host. In the first model, it is assumed that parasitism occurs prior to density dependence, while in the second model we assume that density dependence operates first followed by parasitism. It is shown that both models have similar asymptotic behaviour. The parasitoid population will definitely go extinct if the maximal growth rate of the host population is less than or equal to one, independent of whether density dependence or parasitism occurs first. The fate of the population is initial condition dependent if this maximal growth rate exceeds one. In particular, there exists a host population threshold, the Allee threshold, below which the host population goes extinct and so does the parasitoid. This threshold is the same for both models. Numerical examples with different functions are simulated to illustrate our analytical results.     

MODELING THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF A SUBTROPICAL UNGULATE IN A VARIABLE ENVIRONMENT: RAIN,COLD AND PREDATORS

ABSTRACT. A structured population model was developed for a large ungulate, the kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros). From a ten-year study in South Africa's Kruger National Park, relationships were established between annual survival rates of particular age classes and resource availability indexed by the ratio between annual rainfall and population biomass density. The projected population dynamics resembled that from a simple logistic model, but with the convexity of density dependence and intrinsic growth rate dependent upon assumptions about how age-specific mortality changed at low density levels. Moreover, rather than being a preset constant, the effective carrying capacity K wasa dynamic variable dependent upon rainfall. The model closely replicated the observed dynamicsof the kudu population over the study period, but failed to predict the observed kudu density at the start of the study from prior rainfall alone. Episodic cold weather extremeswere identified ashaving an additional influence on kudu dynamics. The model was also unsuccessful in predicting the changesin kudu abundance that occurred in Kruger Park subsequent to the study. Here changes in predation perhaps due to predator switching were a possible influence. These additional factorsinfluencing population dynamicswould not have been recognized without first establishing the effects of changing resource availability in response to rainfall fluctu-ationsbetween years. The elaborated model incorporating the effects of resource supply as influenced by rainfall, density dependence, background predation pressure and episodic severe weather hasbroader reliability than simpler modelsfor conservation applications, while still having a firm empirical foundation.     

Nonlinear dynamics of open marine population with space-limited recruitment: The case of mortality control

In this paper we develop a nonlinear extension for the open marine population model which has been proposed by Roughgarden et al. [Ecology 66 (1985) 54-67]. To avoid the negative population density, which is a drawback of the original model, we introduce a nonlinear mechanism that the mortality rate depends on the size of area occupied by the adult population. Then we give a rigorous mathematical framework to analyse the model equation, and we show sufficient conditions for stability and instability of the steady state. Our instability result suggests, as was proposed by Roughgarden et al., that there exists a sustained oscillation of the population density.