Dynamic network reliability modeling under nonhomogeneous Poisson processes

In this paper, we consider a two-state (up and down) network consisting of n links. We study the D-spectrum based dynamic reliability of the network under the assumption that the links are subject to failure according to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Several mixture representations are provided for the reliability function of residual lifetime of used networks, under different conditions on the status of the network or its links. These representations enable us to explore the residual reliability of operating networks in terms of the reliability functions of residual lifetimes of upper record values. The distribution function of inactivity time of a network is examined under the condition that the network has failed by inspection time t. Stochastic ordering properties of the residual lifetimes of networks under conditional D-spectra are investigated. Several examples and graphs are also provided to illustrate the established results.     

Joint Reliability Function of Coherent Systems with Shared Heterogeneous Components

In this paper, we consider two coherent systems having shared components. We assume that in the two systems there are three different types of components; components of type one that just belong to the first system, components of type two that lie only in the second system and components of type three that are shared by the two systems. We use the concept of joint survival signature to assess the joint reliability function of the two systems. Using this concept, some representations for the joint reliability function of the system lifetimes are obtained under two different scenarios of component failures. In the first scenario, we assume that the components of the systems fail according to different counting processes such as non-homogeneous Poisson processes. In the second scenario, it is assumed that the component lifetimes of each type are exchangeable while the three types of component lifetimes can be independent or dependent. To illustrate the theoretical results, two systems with shared components are studied numerically and graphically.

     

Modeling and analysis of system reliability using phase‐type distribution closure properties

Phase‐type distribution closure properties are utilized to devise algorithms for generating reliability functions of systems with basic structures. These structures include series, parallel, K‐out‐of‐N, and standby structures with perfect/imperfect switch. The algorithms form a method for system reliability modeling and analysis based on the relationship between the system lifetime and component lifetimes for general structures. The proposed method is suitable for functional system reliability analysis, which can produce reliability functions of systems with independent components instead of only system reliability values. Once the system reliability function is obtained, other reliability measures such as the system's hazard function and mean time to failure can be obtained efficiently using only matrix algebra. Dimensional and numerical comparisons with computerized symbolic processing are also presented to show the superiority of the proposed method.     

A load share model for non-identical components of a k-out-of-m system

We consider a k-out-of-m load sharing system when the lifetimes of the components are not necessarily identically distributed random variables. For such systems, a model for the load sharing phenomenon through the exponentiated conditional survival functions of ordered failure times is proposed. This model is more general than the load sharing model with identically distributed component lifetimes and leads to a different family of distributions for ordered random variables. A general expression for the reliability of the system is given. The computations of the reliability for a two component parallel load sharing system corresponding to the exponential and Weibull distributions are discussed. For illustrative purpose, we discuss the inference procedures for a two component parallel load sharing system corresponding to the exponential distributions. A simulation study is carried out to assess the proposed estimation and testing procedures. The applicability of the proposed load sharing model is shown through two data sets.     

Stochastic stabilization of first-passage failure of Rayleigh oscillator under Gaussian White-Noise parametric excitations

Stochastic stabilization of first-passage failure of Rayleigh oscillator under Gaussian White-Noise parametric excitation is studied. The equation of motion of the system is first reduced to an averaged Itô stochastic differential equation by using the stochastic averaging method. Then, a backward Kolmogorov equation governing the conditional reliability function of first-passage failure is established. The conditional reliability function, and the conditional probability density are obtained by solving the backward Kolmogorov equation with boundary conditions. Finally, the cost function and optimal control forces are determined by the requirements of stabilizing the system by evaluating the maximal Lyapunov exponent. The numerical results show that the procedure is effective and efficiency.     

A number-dependent replacement policy for a system with continuous preventive maintenance and random lead times

This paper considers a number-dependent replacement policy for a system with two failure types that is replaced at the nth type I (minor) failure or the first type II (catastrophic) failure, whichever occurs first. Repair or replacement times are instantaneous but spare/replacement unit delivery lead times are random. Type I failures are repaired at zero cost since preventive maintenance is performed continuously. Type II failures, however, require costly system replacement. A model is developed for the average cost per unit time based on the stochastic behavior of the system and replacement, storage, and downtime costs. The cost-minimizing policy is derived and discussed. We show that the optimal number of type I failures triggering replacement is unique under certain conditions. A numerical example is presented and a sensitivity analysis is performed.     

Reliability equivalence factors of a system with mixture of n independent and non-identical lifetimes with delay time

Recently, [1], [2] generalized the reliability equivalence technique to a system with mixed of two non-identical lifetimes with delay time. The aim of this study is to generalize reliability equivalence technique to apply it to a system of mixture of n independent and non-identical lifetimes with delay time. We shall improve the system by using some reliability techniques: (i) reducing the failure for some lifetimes; (ii) add hot duplication components; (iii) add cold duplication components; and (iv) add cold duplication components with imperfect switches. We start by establishing two different types of reliability equivalence factors, the survival reliability equivalence (SRE) and mean reliability equivalence (MRE) factors. Also, we introduced some numerical results and conclusions.     

Optimal replacement model with age-dependent failure type based on a cumulative repair-cost limit policy

This paper presents a replacement model with age-dependent failure type based on a cumulative repair-cost limit policy, whose concept uses the information of all repair costs to decide whether the system is repaired or replaced. As failures occur, the system experiences one of the two types of failures: a type-I failure (minor), rectified by a minimal repair; or a type-II failure (catastrophic) that calls for a replacement. A critical type-I failure means a minor failure at which the accumulated repair cost exceeds the pre-determined limit for the first time. The system is replaced at the nth type-I failure, or at a critical type-I failure, or at first type-II failure, whichever occurs first. The optimal number of minimal repairs before replacement which minimizes the mean cost rate is derived and studied in terms of its existence and uniqueness. Several classical models in maintenance literature are special cases of our model.     

Stochastic ordering properties for systems with dependent identically distributed components

In this paper, we obtain ordering properties for coherent systems with possibly dependent identically distributed components. These results are based on a representation of the system reliability function as a distorted function of the common component reliability function. So, the results included in this paper can also be applied to general distorted distributions. The main advantage of these results is that they are distribution‐free with respect to the common component distribution. Moreover, they can be applied to systems with component lifetimes having a non‐exchangeable joint distribution. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Some results for repairable systems with minimal repairs

In this paper, we consider a repairable system with minimal repairs whose number of repairs is a positive random variable with a given probability vector. Some preservation theorems and aging properties of repairable systems are established. Under the condition that at time t the system is working, a new random variable for the residual lifetime of the system is proposed. Some stochastic ordering results among the lifetimes and residual lifetimes of two systems are obtained. Similar results for coherent systems with independent components and exchangeable components were obtained in the previous literature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semi-Markov failure rates processes

Usually, a reliability function is defined by a failure rate which is a real function taking the non-negative real values. In this paper the failure rate is assumed to be a stochastic process with non-negative and right continuous trajectories. The reliability function is defined as an expectation of a function of that random process. Particularly, the failure rate defined by the semi-Markov processes is considered here. The theorems dealing with the renewal equations for the conditional reliability functions with a semi-Markov process as a failure rate are presented in this paper. A system of that kind of equations for the discrete state space semi-Markov process is applied for calculating the reliability function for the 3-states semi-Markov random walk. Using the introduced system of renewal equations for the countable state space, the reliability function for the Furry-Yule failure rate process is obtained.     

Stochastic comparisons of residual lifetimes and inactivity times of coherent systems with dependent identically distributed components

In this paper we compare the residual lifetime of a used coherent system of age t>0$t>0$ with the lifetime of the similar coherent system made up of used components of age t. Here ‘similar’ means that the system has the same structure and the component lifetimes have the same dependence (joint reliability copula). Some comparison results are obtained for the likelihood ratio order, failure rate order, reversed failure rate order and the usual stochastic order. Similar results are reported for comparing inactivity time of a coherent system with lifetime of similar coherent system having component lifetimes same as inactivity times of failed components.     

Optimal age-replacement time with minimal repair based on cumulative repair-cost limit for a system subject to shocks

An operating system is subject to random shocks that arrive according to a non-homogeneous Poisson process and cause the system failed. System failures experience to be divided into two categories: a type-I failure (minor), rectified by a minimal repair; or a type-II failure (catastrophic) that calls for a replacement. An age-replacement model is studied by considering both a cumulative repair-cost limit and a system’s entire repair-cost history. Under such a policy, the system is replaced at age T, or at the k-th type-I failure at which the accumulated repair cost exceeds the pre-determined limit, or at any type-II failure, whichever occurs first. The object of this article is to study analytically the minimum-cost replacement policy for showing its existence, uniqueness, and the structural properties. The proposed model provides a general framework for analyzing the maintenance policies, and presents several numerical examples for illustration purposes.     

Reliability,signature, and relative quality functions of systems under time‐homogeneous load‐sharing models

For a coherent binary system made of binary components, we consider the assumption that the components' lifetimes are distributed according to a time‐homogeneous, load‐sharing model. Such models are characterized in terms of the so‐called multivariate conditional hazard rate functions. We aim to point out some related properties of the notions of signature, relative quality functions, and reliability functions. On this purpose, we preliminarily collect all the necessary background and review some related literature. This paper concludes with a discussion, also containing some hints for future work.     

Stochastic modeling of quality of systems operating in a heterogeneous environment

We consider systems that are subject to an external mixed Poisson shock process. Each shock can result in a failure of a system with a given probability and is survived with the complementary probability. Each shock additionally decreases the quality function that describes the performance of a system, thus forming the corresponding stochastic process. Expectations (unconditional and conditional on survival) and relevant variability characteristics for the stochastic quality function are derived. Some monotonicity properties of the conditional quality function are investigated and the future values of this function are derived.     

Multi-state Systems with Graduate Failure and Equal Transition Intensities

We consider unrecoverable homogeneous multi-state systems with graduate failures, where each component can work at M + 1 linearly ordered levels of performance. The underlying process of failure for each component is a homogeneous Markov process such that the level of performance of one component can change only for one level lower than the observed one, and the failures are independent for different components. We derive the probability distribution of the random vector X, representing the state of the system at the moment of failure and use it for testing the hypothesis of equal transition intensities. Under the assumption that these intensities are equal, we derive the method of moments estimators for probabilities of failure in a given state vector and the intensity of failure. At the end we calculate the reliability function for such systems. Received: May 18, 2007., Revised: July 8, 2008., Accepted: September 29, 2008.     

Reliability modelling incorporating load share and frailty

The stochastic behaviour of lifetimes of a two component system is often primarily influenced by the system structure and by the covariates shared by the components. Any meaningful attempt to model the lifetimes must take into consideration the factors affecting their stochastic behaviour. In particular, for a load share system, we describe a reliability model incorporating both the load share dependence and the effect of observed and unobserved covariates. The model includes a bivariate Weibull to characterize load share, a positive stable distribution to describe frailty, and also incorporates effects of observed covariates. We investigate various interesting reliability properties of this model using cross ratio functions and conditional survivor functions. We implement maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters and discuss model adequacy and selection. We illustrate our approach using a simulation study. For a real data situation, we demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model that incorporates both load share and frailty effects over competing models that incorporate just one of these effects. An attractive and computationally simple cross‐validation technique is introduced to reconfirm the claim. We conclude with a summary and discussion.     

A generalized JM model with applications to imperfect debugging in software reliability

For their nice mathematical properties, state space models have been widely used, especially for forecasting. Over the last decades, the study of tracking software reliability by statistical models has attracted scientists’ attention. However, most of models focus on perfect debugging although practically imperfect debugging arises everywhere. In this paper, a non-Gaussian state space model is modified to predict software failure time with imperfect debugging. In fact, this model is very flexible so that we can modify the system equation in this model to satisfy the various situations. Besides, this model is suitable for tracking software reliability, and applied to two well known datasets on software failures.     

A bayesian approach to inference for monotone failure rates

In reliability theory, the notion of monotone failure rates plays a central role. When prior information indicates that such monotonicity is meaningful, it must be incorporated into the prior distribution whenever inference about the failure rates needs to be made. In this paper we show how this can be done in a straightforward and intuitively pleasing manner. The time interval is partitioned into subintervals of equal width and the number of failures and censoring in each interval is recorded. By defining a Dirichlet as the joint prior distribution for the forward or the backward differences of the conditional probabilities of survival in each interval, we find that the monotonicity is presenved in the posterior estimate of the failure rates. A posterior estimate of the survival function can also be obtained. We illustrate our method by applying it to some real life medical data.     

Objective Bayesian analysis for competing risks model with Wiener degradation phenomena and catastrophic failures

In this paper, the objective Bayesian method is applied to investigate the competing risks model involving both catastrophic and degradation failures. By modeling soft failure as the Wiener degradation process, and hard failures as a Weibull distribution, we obtain the noninformative priors (Jefferys prior and two reference priors) for the parameters. Moreover, we show that their posterior distributions have good properties and we propose Gibbs sampling algorithms for the Bayesian inference based on the Jefferys prior and two reference priors. Some simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the superiority of objective Bayesian method. Finally, we apply our methods to two real data examples and compare the objective Bayesian estimates with the other estimates.