首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 125 毫秒
1.
针对重大突发事件应急决策大群体成员的风险偏好复杂难测问题,提出了一种新的基于决策者风险偏好大数据分析的大群体应急决策方法。首先专家群体对突发事件进行快速响应,生成若干应急预案及其风险属性信息;其次,社会公众通过网络等渠道参与到应急决策中来并形成决策大群体,给出不同预案的偏好值;然后,利用证据推理算法得出公众对各预案的风险效用值,将预案风险效用值与预案偏好值加权组合,得到各个预案的大群体决策者的风险偏好值;最后,基于风险偏好值,利用大数据分析技术对大群体的风险偏好进行聚类识别,从中筛选出风险中立者组成新的应急决策群体,再次聚类得出应急决策群体的成员组成结构,以此为基础计算决策者权重和应急预案的最终效用值,得应急预案排序结果。最后通过算例分析验证了方法的有效性和可行性。  相似文献   

2.
如何求得著名的“兰氏”平方律战斗动力学方程中双方兵力损耗率系数,这是作战模拟应用研究领域中一个久攻未克的难题。本文提出了以作战结果来逆向研究作战过程中双方兵力损耗率系数的思想。阐述了对于不变的作战双方在相同(相近)的作战环境与作战条件下相继进行的作战序列里,双方各自的兵力损耗率系数不变(波动不大)的公理,论证了揭示作战序列内部规律的两条定理。据此,建立了兵力损耗率系数的战例求解理论与方法。运用这一理论与方法,据以往发生的作战过程其数值特征可以求得未来相似或相同作战过程中双方兵力损耗率系数的具体取值,首次解决了作战模拟研究领域中兵力损耗率系数的具体取值这一难题。  相似文献   

3.
基于联合作战实体定量分析的作战能力指数组合期望效用,研究了联合作战任务兵力配置问题,建立了二人零和参数博弈模型,并讨论了模型构建的理论依据与算法.  相似文献   

4.
针对属性权重完全未知且专家偏好出现残缺值的复杂大群体应急决策问题,提出了一种新的决策方法。首先,设计了一套基于决策者信任水平的残缺值填充机制,对缺失的偏好信息进行补充。然后,将各方案的大群体偏好信息进行聚类,基于方案信息熵和群体偏好冲突水平构建组合赋权方法,对属性权重进行测算,进而得到各个方案的综合评价值。最后对该方法进行了实例验证,验证结果表明本文提出的方法具有良好的可行性和有效性。  相似文献   

5.
群体AHP方法在复杂系统易损性分析中的应用   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
群体层次分析法(Group AHP)是专家群体评判意见的综合量化方法,本文讨论了该方法在系统易损性分析中的应用,并针对群体层次分析法专家意见合成问题,提出了基于主成分分析方法计算各专家客观权重,并根据该权重合成专家评判意见的方法.应用结果表明,该方法能更好地克服人为主观判断及偏好给决策带来的影响,为复杂系统易损性定量评估提供了有效的技术途径.  相似文献   

6.
建立登陆作战兵力上船装载方案优化模型,针对大规模登陆作战兵力上船装载方案确定问题特点,提出一种用需装载兵力、可用舰船和可用泊位类型排列表示方案的方案编码方法,称为方案的类型排列基因码.给出排列基因码生成及进化方法,实现装载方案的遗传优化.计算结果表明,使用该方法可以在较短时间内得到较好的上船装载方案.  相似文献   

7.
干热岩勘探选址大群体决策中,决策专家受知识背景、专业领域的限制,难以给出完整的评价信息,而集思广益是大群体决策的主要优势,为最大化各专家专业贡献,提出了一种基于权威专家的不完全概率语言评价信息多属性大群决策方法。首先,依据专家在各属性下评价值的专业认可度及专业犹豫度,识别各属性下的权威专家;其次,依据专家语言术语使用习惯及权威专家评价值期望函数,建立优化函数,完善不完全概率语言信息;然后,针对概率语言术语集,提出对各属性下评价值进行两阶段相似度测度方法,据此将大群体聚类,测度大群体共识水平,调节群体共识,以得到共识水平较高的大群体决策方案;最后,通过我国东南沿海地区干热岩勘探选址案例应用及方法对比分析,验证了所提方法的可靠性和先进性。  相似文献   

8.
针对群决策中基于区间数决策矩阵形式偏好信息的专家群体判断共识性问题,提出了一种分析方法.首先,给出了有关区间数的定义及其运算法则;然后,通过定义有关区间数决策矩阵的区间数向量,给出了各个专家与专家群体判断的共识性分析方法,同时,也给出了基于区间数决策矩阵的专家群体判断共识性的判别方法.最后,通过一个算例说明了本文提出的分析方法.  相似文献   

9.
本文基于区间概率语言术语集(IVPLTS),结合幂聚合算子,提出一种多属性群决策方法,刻画了不确定环境下属性间存在相关联性的决策信息。首先,基于概率语言术语集(PLTS)定义了IVPLTS及其标准化方法,结合区间折衷概率构建新得分函数给出IVPLTS的排序法,并与概率知识结合定义了新的IVPLTS运算法则且研究了其性质。其次,提出了区间概率语言幂平均(IVPLPA)和区间概率语言幂几何(IVPLPG)算子,讨论了算子的理想性质及相互关系。最后,基于IVPLPA和IVPLPG算子提出一种多属性群决策方法,通过算例与其它方法对比,说明本文方法的可行性与优越性。  相似文献   

10.
情报信息系统效率是较难量化的指标 .本文利用斯莱伯原理 ,对多兵种兰彻斯特战斗方程进行了改进 ,探讨了兵力倍增系数变化情况 ,提出了计算指挥情报效率高低的方法 .  相似文献   

11.
三I推理方法是一种新的模糊推理方法,通过已有的研究成果表明,在许多方面它优于传统的CRI推理方法,它将成为模糊系统和人工智能的理论和应用研究中一个比较理想的推理机制。最近,国外学者提出了一个新的模糊逻辑形式系统,叫做Monoidal t-norm based logics(简记为MTL),已经证明这个形式系统是所有基于左连续三角范数的模糊逻辑的共同形式化。本文基于这类逻辑将三I推理方法形式化,从而在这些逻辑系统中为三推理方法找到了可靠的逻辑依据。  相似文献   

12.
针对Pythagorean模糊群决策问题,提出一种基于Pythagorean模糊混合平均算子的决策方法。首先,提出一种基于Pythagorean模糊信息及其运算法则的Pythagorean模糊混合平均算子;其次,构建一种基于最大熵模型的属性位置权重定权方法,同时根据灰色关联方法提出一种属性客观权重计算方法,进而获得Pythagorean模糊混合平均算子的定权方法;利用Pythagorean模糊混合平均算子对单决策者信息进行融合,通过Pythagorean模糊加权平均算子对各专家信息进行融合,并依据得分函数与精确函数进行排序择优;最后,通过一个算例说明该方法的有效性和可行性。  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, a new fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making (FMADM) method, which is suitable for multiple attributive group decision making (GDM) problems in fuzzy environment, is proposed to deal with the problem of ranking and selection of alternatives. Since the subjectivity, imprecision and vagueness in the estimates of a performance rating enter into multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problems, fuzzy set theory provides a mathematical framework for modelling vagueness and imprecision. In the proposed approach, an attribute based aggregation technique for heterogeneous group of experts is employed and used for dealing with fuzzy opinion aggregation for the subjective attributes of the decision problem. The propulsion/manoeuvring system selection as a real case study is used to demonstrate the versatility and potential of the proposed method for solving fuzzy multiple attributive group decision-making problems. The proposed method is a generalised model, which can be applied to great variety of practical problems encountered in the naval architecture from propulsion/manoeuvring system selection to warship requirements definition.  相似文献   

14.
The aim of this paper is to show that the normalizing rank aggregation method can not only be used to derive the priority vector for a multiplicative preference relation, but also for the additive transitive fuzzy preference relation. To do so, a simple functional equation between fuzzy preference’s element and priority weight is derived firstly, then, based on the equation, three methods are proposed to prove that the normalizing rank aggregation method is simple and effective for deriving the priority vector. Finally, a numerical example is used to illustrate the proposed methods.  相似文献   

15.
With respect to the multiple attribute group decision making problems in which the attribute values take the form of generalized interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers (GITFN), this paper proposed a decision making method based on weighted geometric aggregation operators. First, some operational rules, the distance and comparison between two GITFNs are introduced. Second, the generalized interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers weighted geometric aggregation (GITFNWGA) operator, the generalized interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers ordered weighted geometric aggregation (GITFNOWGA) operator, and the generalized interval-valued trapezoidal fuzzy numbers hybrid geometric aggregation (GITFNHGA) operator are proposed, and their various properties are investigated. At the same time, the group decision methods based on these operators are also presented. Finally, an illustrate example is given to show the decision-making steps and the effectiveness of this method.  相似文献   

16.
17.
Data collected on known terrorist organizations allow intelligence agencies to build a statistical database of features for each group and an observed level of development of chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons. For the intelligence analyst, a statistical exploration of the structure of the multivariate data is helpful for determining which subset of features—and the relative contribution of each feature in the subset—best discriminate between levels of CBRN weapons development. The resulting function that is used to discriminate between CBRN development levels is called the ‘classifier’. Once the appropriate subset of indicators has been identified and a classifier developed, intelligence agencies will be better able to focus their information gathering and to assess the effect that changes in a terrorist group's features will have on their CBRN weapons development. Additionally, the classifier will enable the intelligence agency to predict the CBRN weapons development level of terrorist group where the feature set of the group is known but the level is unknown. In this analysis, we compare three approaches for building a classifier that best predicts CBRN weapons development levels using a training set with 45 observations; (1) heuristic pattern recognition approach that couples a weighted Minkowski distance metric with a nonparametric kernel-based classification method, (2) classification trees, and (3) discriminant analysis. Where possible, cross-validation is conducted on the data to ensure that the resulting classifier is not overly dependent on the training set. This initial analysis provides some interesting results and suggests a reasonable starting point for finding structure in the data as more observations are added.  相似文献   

18.
Multicategory Classification by Support Vector Machines   总被引:8,自引:0,他引:8  
We examine the problem of how to discriminate between objects of three or more classes. Specifically, we investigate how two-class discrimination methods can be extended to the multiclass case. We show how the linear programming (LP) approaches based on the work of Mangasarian and quadratic programming (QP) approaches based on Vapnik's Support Vector Machine (SVM) can be combined to yield two new approaches to the multiclass problem. In LP multiclass discrimination, a single linear program is used to construct a piecewise-linear classification function. In our proposed multiclass SVM method, a single quadratic program is used to construct a piecewise-nonlinear classification function. Each piece of this function can take the form of a polynomial, a radial basis function, or even a neural network. For the k > 2-class problems, the SVM method as originally proposed required the construction of a two-class SVM to separate each class from the remaining classes. Similarily, k two-class linear programs can be used for the multiclass problem. We performed an empirical study of the original LP method, the proposed k LP method, the proposed single QP method and the original k QP methods. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each approach.  相似文献   

19.
偏好信息为模糊互反判断矩阵的模糊多属性决策法   总被引:15,自引:1,他引:14  
研究只有部分权重信息且决策者对方案的偏好信息以模糊互反判断矩阵形式给出的模糊多属性决策问题。提出了一种基于目标规划模型的模糊多属性决策方法。该法首先基于模糊互反判断矩阵,利用转换函数将决策信息一致化,建立了一个目标规划模型.通过求解该模型确定属性的权重,然后运用加性加权法求出各方案的模糊综合属性值,并利用已有的三角模糊数排序公式求得决策方案的排序。文章最后把该法应用于解决风险投资领域中的项目评估问题。  相似文献   

20.
犹豫模糊集(HFS)是一个元素的隶属度可以用多个实数值表示的集合.该方法通常用于处理决策者在具有多个评价指标、方案、变量等多个值时犹豫不决的情况.本文基于犹豫不决的模糊环境,提出了一种新的混合方法.首先,基于最大偏差法确定属性权重;其次,利用TODIM方法计算各方案的优势度.通过对这些优势度的聚合,可以进一步得到每个方案的整体价值,从而对方案进行排序.最后,通过一个多属性应急选址的决策问题,说明了所提方法的适用性和有效性.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号