A measure based approach to the fusion of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainty

We are interested in the problem of multi-source information fusion in the case when the information provided has some uncertainty. We note that sensor provided information generally has a probabilistic type of uncertainty whereas linguistic information typically introduces a possibilistic type of uncertainty. More generally, we are faced with a problem in which we must fuse information with different types of uncertainty. In order to provide a unified framework for the representation of these different types of uncertain information we use a set measure approach for the representation of uncertain information. We discuss a set measure representation of uncertain information. In the multi-source fusion problem, in addition to having a collection of pieces of information that must be fused, we need to have some expert provided instructions on how to fuse these pieces of information. Generally these instructions can involve a combination of linguistically and mathematically expressed directions. In the course of this work we begin to consider the fundamental task of how to translate these instructions into formal operations that can be applied to our information. This requires us to investigate the important problem of the aggregation of set measures.     

An Exact Formula for Radius of Robust Feasibility of Uncertain Linear Programs

We present an exact formula for the radius of robust feasibility of uncertain linear programs with a compact and convex uncertainty set. The radius of robust feasibility provides a value for the maximal ‘size’ of an uncertainty set under which robust feasibility of the uncertain linear program can be guaranteed. By considering spectrahedral uncertainty sets, we obtain numerically tractable radius formulas for commonly used uncertainty sets of robust optimization, such as ellipsoids, balls, polytopes and boxes. In these cases, we show that the radius of robust feasibility can be found by solving a linearly constrained convex quadratic program or a minimax linear program. The results are illustrated by calculating the radius of robust feasibility of uncertain linear programs for several different uncertainty sets.     

On the Evaluation of Uncertain Courses of Action

We consider the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The fuzzy measure is introduced as a general way of representing available information about the uncertainty. It is noted that generally in uncertain environments the problem of comparing alternative courses of action is difficult because of the multiplicity of possible outcomes for any action. One approach is to convert this multiplicity of possible of outcomes associated with an alternative into a single value using a valuation function. We describe various ways of providing a valuation function when the uncertainty is represented using a fuzzy measure. We then specialize these valuation functions to the cases of probabilistic and possibilistic uncertainty.     

On Stochastic Mirror-prox Algorithms for Stochastic Cartesian Variational Inequalities: Randomized Block Coordinate and Optimal Averaging Schemes

Motivated by multi-user optimization problems and non-cooperative Nash games in uncertain regimes, we consider stochastic Cartesian variational inequality problems where the set is given as the Cartesian product of a collection of component sets. First, we consider the case where the number of the component sets is large and develop a randomized block stochastic mirror-prox algorithm, where at each iteration only a randomly selected block coordinate of the solution vector is updated through implementing two consecutive projection steps. We show that when the mapping is strictly pseudo-monotone, the algorithm generates a sequence of iterates that converges to the solution of the problem almost surely. When the maps are strongly pseudo-monotone, we prove that the mean-squared error diminishes at the optimal rate. Second, we consider large-scale stochastic optimization problems with convex objectives and develop a new averaging scheme for the randomized block stochastic mirror-prox algorithm. We show that by using a different set of weights than those employed in the classical stochastic mirror-prox methods, the objective values of the averaged sequence converges to the optimal value in the mean sense at an optimal rate. Third, we consider stochastic Cartesian variational inequality problems and develop a stochastic mirror-prox algorithm that employs the new weighted averaging scheme. We show that the expected value of a suitably defined gap function converges to zero at an optimal rate.     

Generalizing variance to allow the inclusion of decision attitude in decision making under uncertainty

The problem of decision making under uncertainty is considered. It is noted that an alternative is described in terms of an uncertainty profile. We observe that a major difficulty in the decision process is the comparison of these uncertainty profiles. We discuss the need for introducing some features of an uncertainty profile to help simplify this comparison. We note that the quantification of these simplifying features involves some subjective considerations about the decision makers preferences. We introduce the idea of the decision maker’s attitudinal character to help in the formulation of these considerations. We then investigate two important features associated with an uncertainty profile. The first, the representative value, is a generalization of expected value commonly used under probabilistic uncertainty. The second, called the measure of deviation, provides a generalization of the concept of variance. We show how these new measures allows us to consider uncertainty profiles other then just the probabilistic one. They also allow us introduce other decision maker attitudes then the one implicitly assumed with the expected value and variance.     

Robust nonlinear optimization with conic representable uncertainty set

The robust optimization methodology is known as a popular method dealing with optimization problems with uncertain data and hard constraints. This methodology has been applied so far to various convex conic optimization problems where only their inequality constraints are subject to uncertainty. In this paper, the robust optimization methodology is applied to the general nonlinear programming (NLP) problem involving both uncertain inequality and equality constraints. The uncertainty set is defined by conic representable sets, the proposed uncertainty set is general enough to include many uncertainty sets, which have been used in literature, as special cases. The robust counterpart (RC) of the general NLP problem is approximated under this uncertainty set. It is shown that the resulting approximate RC of the general NLP problem is valid in a small neighborhood of the nominal value. Furthermore a rather general class of programming problems is posed that the robust counterparts of its problems can be derived exactly under the proposed uncertainty set. Our results show the applicability of robust optimization to a wider area of real applications and theoretical problems with more general uncertainty sets than those considered so far. The resulting robust counterparts which are traditional optimization problems make it possible to use existing algorithms of mathematical optimization to solve more complicated and general robust optimization problems.     

Belief structures,weight generating functions and decision-making

We describe the Dempster–Shafer belief structure and provide some of its basic properties. We introduce the plausibility and belief measures associated with a belief structure. We note that these are not the only measures that can be associated with a belief structure. We describe a general approach for generating a class of measures that can be associated with a belief structure using a monotonic function on the unit interval, called a weight generating function. We study a number of these functions and the measures that result. We show how to use weight-generating functions to obtain dual measures from a belief structure. We show the role of belief structures in representing imprecise probability distributions. We describe the use of dual measures, other then plausibility and belief, to provide alternative bounding intervals for the imprecise probabilities associated with a belief structure. We investigate the problem of decision making under belief structure type uncertain. We discuss two approaches to this decision problem. One of which is based on an expected value of the OWA aggregation of the payoffs associated with the focal elements. The second approach is based on using the Choquet integral of a measure generated from the belief structure. We show the equivalence of these approaches.     

Mixed uncertainty sets for robust combinatorial optimization

In robust optimization, the uncertainty set is used to model all possible outcomes of uncertain parameters. In the classic setting, one assumes that this set is provided by the decision maker based on the data available to her. Only recently it has been recognized that the process of building useful uncertainty sets is in itself a challenging task that requires mathematical support. In this paper, we propose an approach to go beyond the classic setting, by assuming multiple uncertainty sets to be prepared, each with a weight showing the degree of belief that the set is a “true” model of uncertainty. We consider theoretical aspects of this approach and show that it is as easy to model as the classic setting. In an extensive computational study using a shortest path problem based on real-world data, we auto-tune uncertainty sets to the available data, and show that with regard to out-of-sample performance, the combination of multiple sets can give better results than each set on its own.

     

Variable-sized uncertainty and inverse problems in robust optimization

In robust optimization, the general aim is to find a solution that performs well over a set of possible parameter outcomes, the so-called uncertainty set. In this paper, we assume that the uncertainty size is not fixed, and instead aim at finding a set of robust solutions that covers all possible uncertainty set outcomes. We refer to these problems as robust optimization with variable-sized uncertainty. We discuss how to construct smallest possible sets of min–max robust solutions and give bounds on their size.A special case of this perspective is to analyze for which uncertainty sets a nominal solution ceases to be a robust solution, which amounts to an inverse robust optimization problem. We consider this problem with a min–max regret objective and present mixed-integer linear programming formulations that can be applied to construct suitable uncertainty sets.Results on both variable-sized uncertainty and inverse problems are further supported with experimental data.     

Flexibility Analysis in the Case of Incomplete Information about Uncertain Parameters

In recent years the flexibility analysis of chemical processes has attracted a significant amount of attention among researchers in the chemical engineering community. Flexibility analysis permits to identify/create chemical processes, which can satisfy all design specifications in spite of process and parametric uncertainty (from several sources) at the operation stage. All formulations of the flexibility problem are based on the supposition that during the operation stage there is enough experimental data from which exact values of the uncertain parameters can be obtained. However, in practice this assumption is often not met. Here in this paper, we consider the case when the uncertain parameters can be divided into two sets, namely a set that can be estimated with sufficient accuracy (at the operation stage) and a set that cannot be. Based on this view, we have developed extensions of the feasibility test and two-stage optimization problem to handle the two sets of uncertainty. We have developed the relevant split and bound algorithm for solving the new two-step optimization problem.