关于广义压缩最小二乘估计的注记

本文研究了广义压缩最小二乘估计（ＧＳＬＳＥ）的一些性质，给出了它的均方误差（ＭＳＥ）的一个无偏估计量（ＵＥ），采用极小该ＵＥ的方法确定了ＧＳＬＳＥ的参数选取公式，并把这个统一化的方法应用于广义岭估计，岭估计、Ｍａｓｓｙ主成分估计、Ｓｔｅｉｎ型压缩估计以及根方有偏估计等，从而得到了它们的一种选取参数的方法，最后，结合Ｈａｌｄ实例进行比较分析，结果表明，本文的方法是实用的，有效的。     

混合系数线性模型参数的Stein估计

在连续测量数据情况下,对混合系数线性模型给出了固定系数和随机系数的两种形式的Ｓｔｅｉｎ估计,并证明了在均方误差意义下,Ｓｔｅｉｎ估计要优于ＬＳ估计,最后还讨论了Ｓｔｅｉｎ压缩系数的选取方法     

岭型主成分估计的最小方差和

讨论了岭型主成分估计在一类降维估计中的方差性质，证明了在一定条件下岭型主成分估计的方差和最小．文「１」的结果是本文的特例。     

多元线性模型参数的组合主成分估计

本文对多元线性模型的参数β=vec（B）提出了一种新的主成分估计─—组合主成分估计β，得到了它的一些良好的性质，证明了在均方误差准则下，在一定的条件下，此估计优于最小二乘估计（LSE），并给出了实例．     

岭型组合主成分估计

本文提出了回归系数的一种新的改进估计－岭型组合主成分估计，讨论了它的可容许性，约束条件下的可容许性和相合性问题，分别在均方误差意义下和Ｐｉｔｍａｎ接近原则下，证明了在一定条件下，它优于最二乘估计和岭估计，并且证明了它有比它们更好的抗干扰能力和稳健性。     

相依回归模型的参数估计的风险估计

本文给出了相依回归模型的ＯＬＳ估计，ＧＬＳ估计和ＲＧＬＳ估计在二次损失和Ｆｉｓｈｅｒ损失下的风险估计不等式。     

非主成份与广义岭型估计

针对线性回归模型Y=Xp e,e～(0,σ2I)在设计矩阵X呈病态(存在复共线性关系)时,从主成分估计的思想出发,结合岭估计减少均方误差的方法,提出并推导了一类新的估计β(k)=(X'X Φx2kΦ'2)-1X'Y,称之为广义岭型估计.优点是只对主成分和非主成分添加两个不同的常数,均方误差大幅度降低的同时,相对于一般的广义岭估计,计算量减少,相对于主成分估计,便于对原变量做出解释.文中进一步讨论了该估计与主成分估计和岭估计的优劣.     

回归系数的主相关估计及其优良性

本文在回归系数的主成分估计的基础上，提出一种新的降维估计－主相关估计，讨论了它的优良性，并用实例说明主相关估计对主成分估计的改进效果。     

关于广义Stein估计的注记

对于一般的正态线性回归模型Ｙ＝Ｘβ＋ε，ε～Ｎｎ（０，σ∑）本文采用极小化均方程差的方法得到了回归系数的一种非线性有偏估计，即广义Ｓｔｅｉｎ估计，给出了它的偏差及其均方误差的渐近展开式，并且在均方误差意义下，当误差干扰充分小（σ→０）时，给出了该估计优于ＢＬＵ估计的渐近充要条件。     

岭型主成分估计的最优性

本文研究岭型主成分估计的回归最优性。证明了岭型降维估计类中，岭型主成分估计具有Φq^0最小、E－最小和D－最小性，且协方差阵的正交不变范数最小，推广了[2]中某些结果。     

Model selection via standard error adjusted adaptive lasso

The adaptive lasso is a model selection method shown to be both consistent in variable selection and asymptotically normal in coefficient estimation. The actual variable selection performance of the adaptive lasso depends on the weight used. It turns out that the weight assignment using the OLS estimate (OLS-adaptive lasso) can result in very poor performance when collinearity of the model matrix is a concern. To achieve better variable selection results, we take into account the standard errors of the OLS estimate for weight calculation, and propose two different versions of the adaptive lasso denoted by SEA-lasso and NSEA-lasso. We show through numerical studies that when the predictors are highly correlated, SEA-lasso and NSEA-lasso can outperform OLS-adaptive lasso under a variety of linear regression settings while maintaining the same theoretical properties of the adaptive lasso.     

Shrinkage structure in biased regression

Biased regression is an alternative to ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, especially when explanatory variables are highly correlated. In this paper, we examine the geometrical structure of the shrinkage factors of biased estimators. We show that, in most cases, shrinkage factors cannot belong to [0,1] in all directions. We also compare the shrinkage factors of ridge regression (RR), principal component regression (PCR) and partial least-squares regression (PLSR) in the orthogonal directions obtained by the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) algorithm. In these directions, we find that PLSR and RR behave well, whereas shrinkage factors of PCR have an erratic behaviour.     

关于线性回归模型的有偏估计

有偏估计方法是近代回归分析的常用方法．本文研究了几种常用的有偏估计方法，澄清了这些方法的区别和联系．对有偏估计的一些关键点进行研究，给出了一种新的岭参数确定法和一种新的主成分概念，并讨论了这些方法的优良性．为了提高有偏估计的效率，提出了用比例因子规范模型的方法．最后，给出了说明本文方法的数值例子．     

基于奇异值分解的岭型回归(英文)

本文基于设计阵的奇异值分解(SVD),从LS估计出发,应用岭回归估计方法,构造了回归系数的一个新的有偏估计,称为基于SVD的岭型回归估计,简称RRSVD估计,讨论了其性质和偏参数的选取问题,得到了许多重要结论.计算结果表明,在设计阵呈病态时,RRS善岭回归估计.     

Handling selection bias when choosing actions in retail credit applications

In many situations one needs to know which action one should take with a customer to yield the greatest response. Typically, estimates of the response functions of different actions will be based on the responses of customers previously assigned to each action. Often, however, the previous assignments will not have been random, so that estimates of the response functions will be biased. We examine the case of two possible actions. We look at the error arising from using the simple OLS estimate ignoring the selection bias, and also explore the possibility of using the Heckman model to allow for the sample selectivity. The performance of Heckman’s model is then compared with the simple OLS through simulation.     

带多余参数的回归方程系统的两步估计

研究了带多余参数的回归方程系统，得到了参数的两步估计是某一特定形式的一个充要条件，并讨论了两步估计的有限样本性质。     

Ols parameter estimation for a linear paired confluent model

We investigate OLS parameter estimation for a linear paired model in the case of a passive experiment with errors in both variables. The explicit form of the OLS estimates is obtained, their equivalence to maximum likelihood estimates is demonstrated in the presence of normal errors, and estimate consistency is proved. The OLS estimates are compared analytically and numerically with known parameter estimates of “direct,” “orthogonal,” and “diagonal” regression models.     

有界解析函数的n阶导数估计

本文研究了有界解析函数的n阶导数估计.利用有界解析函数泰勒展开式的系数估计,得到了n阶导数估计的一般式,改进了已有的相关结果.     

Momentum Effect Differs Across Stock Performances:Chinese Evidence

Prior empirical studies find positive and negative momentum effect across the global nations, but few focus on explaining the mixed results. In order to address this issue, we apply the quantile regression approach to analyze the momentum effect in the context of Chinese stock market in this paper. The evidence suggests that the momentum effect in Chinese stock is not stable across firms with different levels of performance. We find that negative momentum effect in the short and medium horizon （3 months and 9 months） increases with the quantile of stock returns. And the positive momentum effect is observed in the long horizon （12 months）, which also intensifies for the high performing stocks. According to our study, momentum effect needs to be examined on the basis of stock returns. OLS estimation, which gives an exclusive and biased result, provides misguiding intuitions for momentum effect across the global nations. Based on the empirical results of quantile regression, effective risk control strategies can also be inspired by adjusting the proportion of assets with past performances.     

Estimates of approximate solutions and well-posedness for variational inequalities

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the approximate solutions for variational inequalities. In terms of estimate functions, we establish some estimates of the sizes of the approximate solutions from outside and inside respectively. By considering the behaviors of estimate functions, we give some characterizations of the well-posedness for variational inequalities. This work was partially supported by the Basic and Applied Research Projection of Sichuan Province (05JY029-009-1) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10671135).