Extinction properties of multi-type continuous-state branching processes

Recently in Barczy et al. (2015), the notion of a multi-type continuous-state branching process (with immigration) having $d$-types was introduced as a solution to an $d$-dimensional vector-valued SDE. Preceding that, work on affine processes, originally motivated by mathematical finance, in Duffie et al. (2003) also showed the existence of such processes. See also more recent contributions in this direction due to Gabrielli and Teichmann (2014) and Caballero and Pérez Garmendia (2017). Older work on multi-type continuous-state branching processes is more sparse but includes Watanabe (1969) and Ma (2013), where only two types are considered. In this paper we take a completely different approach and consider multi-type continuous-state branching process, now allowing for up to a countable infinity of types, defined instead as a super Markov chain with both local and non-local branching mechanisms. In the spirit of Engländer and Kypriano (2004) we explore their extinction properties and pose a number of open problems.     

On the block counting process and the fixation line of the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent

The block counting process and the fixation line of the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent are analyzed. It is shown that these processes, properly scaled, converge in the Skorohod topology to the Mittag-Leffler process and to Neveu’s continuous-state branching process respectively as the initial state tends to infinity. Strong relations to Siegmund duality, Mehler semigroups and self-decomposability are pointed out. Furthermore, spectral decompositions for the generators and transition probabilities of the block counting process and the fixation line of the Bolthausen–Sznitman coalescent are provided leading to explicit expressions for functionals such as hitting probabilities and absorption times.     

Backbone decomposition for continuous-state branching processes with immigration

In the spirit of Duquesne and Winkel (2007) and Berestycki et al. (2011), we show that supercritical continuous-state branching process with a general branching mechanism and general immigration mechanism is equivalent in law to a continuous-time Galton-Watson process with immigration (with Poissonian dressing). The result also helps to characterise the limiting backbone decomposition which is predictable from the work on consistent growth of Galton-Watson trees with immigration in Cao and Winkel (2010).     

Extinction time and the total mass of the continuous-state branching processes with competition

Consider a general continuous-state branching process with additional interaction, which destroys the branching property. We give precise conditions on the interaction term, in order to decide whether the extinction time of the process remains or not bounded as the initial value tends to infinity, and similarly for the total mass of the process.     

Uniqueness and Extinction of Weighted Markov Branching Processes

This paper focuses on discussing some basic properties of the weighted Markov branching process which is a natural generalisation of the ordinary Markov branching process. The regularity and uniqueness criteria, which are very easy to verify, are firstly established. Some important characteristics regarding the hitting times of such structure are obtained. In particular, the closed forms for the mean extinction time and conditional mean extinction time are presented. The explosion behaviour of the process is investigated and then the mean explosion time is derived. The mean global holding time and the mean total survival time are also obtained. AMS 2000 Subject Classification Primary 60 J27; Secondary 60 J80     

Williams’ decomposition of the Lévy continuum random tree and simultaneous extinction probability for populations with neutral mutations

We consider an initial Eve-population and a population of neutral mutants, such that the total population dies out in finite time. We describe the evolution of the Eve-population and the total population with continuous state branching processes, and the neutral mutation procedure can be seen as an immigration process with intensity proportional to the size of the population. First we establish a Williams’ decomposition of the genealogy of the total population given by a continuum random tree, according to the ancestral lineage of the last individual alive. This allows us to give a closed formula for the probability of simultaneous extinction of the Eve-population and the total population.     

Large scale localization of a spatial version of Neveu’s branching process

Recently a spatial version of Neveu’s (1992) continuous-state branching process was constructed by Fleischmann and Sturm (2004). This superprocess with infinite mean branching behaves quite differently from usual supercritical spatial branching processes. In fact, at macroscopic scales, the mass renormalized to a (random) probability measure is concentrated in a single space point which randomly fluctuates according to the underlying symmetric stable motion process.     

The mass of super-Brownian motion upon exiting balls and Sheu’s compact support condition

We study the mass of a d$d$-dimensional super-Brownian motion as it first exits an increasing sequence of balls. The mass process is a time-inhomogeneous continuous-state branching process, where the increasing radii of the balls are taken as the time-parameter. We characterise its time-dependent branching mechanism and show that it converges, as time goes to infinity, towards the branching mechanism of the mass of a one-dimensional super-Brownian motion as it first crosses above an increasing sequence of levels.     

Uniqueness,Extinction and Explosivity of Generalised Markov Branching Processes with Pairwise Interaction

We examine basic properties regarding uniqueness, extinction, and explosivity for the generalised Markov branching processes with pairwise interaction. First we establish uniqueness criteria, proving that in the essentially-explosive case the process is honest if and only if the mean death rate is greater than or equal to the mean birth rate, while in the sub-explosive case the process is dishonest only in exceptional circumstances. Explicit expressions are then obtained for the extinction probabilities, the mean extinction times and the conditional mean extinction times. Explosivity is also investigated and an explicit expression for mean explosion time is established.     

Evolution in predator–prey systems

We study the adaptive dynamics of predator–prey systems modeled by a dynamical system in which the traits of predators and prey are allowed to evolve by small mutations. When only the prey are allowed to evolve, and the size of the mutational change tends to 0, the system does not exhibit long term prey coexistence and the trait of the resident prey type converges to the solution of an ODE. When only the predators are allowed to evolve, coexistence of predators occurs. In this case, depending on the parameters being varied, we see that (i) the number of coexisting predators remains tight and the differences in traits from a reference species converge in distribution to a limit, or (ii) the number of coexisting predators tends to infinity, and we calculate the asymptotic rate at which the traits of the least and most “fit” predators in the population increase. This last result is obtained by comparison with a branching random walk killed to the left of a linear boundary and a finite branching–selection particle system.     

Asymptotic results for exponential functionals of Lévy processes

The asymptotic behavior of expectations of some exponential functionals of a Lévy process is studied. The key point is the observation that the asymptotics only depend on the sample paths with slowly decreasing local infimum. We give not only the convergence rate but also the expression of the limiting coefficient. The latter is given in terms of some transformations of the Lévy process based on its renewal function. As an application, we give an exact evaluation of the decay rate of the survival probability of a continuous-state branching process in random environment with stable branching mechanism.     

A bivariate non-homogeneous birth and death model for predator–prey interactions

We propose a bivariate non-homogeneous birth and death process as a model for predator–prey interactions. Its expectation is periodic, as it is a solution to the classical Lotka–Volterra system. Moreover, the mean age at extinction, as defined in Kendall (1948), is infinite.     

Stochastic equations of super-Lévy processes with general branching mechanism

In this work, the process of distribution functions of a one-dimensional super-Lévy process with general branching mechanism is characterized as the pathwise unique solution of a stochastic integral equation driven by time–space Gaussian white noises and Poisson random measures. This generalizes the recent work of Xiong (2013), where the result for a super-Brownian motion with binary branching mechanism was obtained.     

General collision branching processes with two parameters

A new class of branching models, the general collision branching processes with two parameters, is considered in this paper. For such models, it is necessary to evaluate the absorbing probabilities and mean extinction times for both absorbing states. Regularity and uniqueness criteria are firstly established. Explicit expressions are then obtained for the extinction probability vector, the mean extinction times and the conditional mean extinction times. The explosion behavior of these models is investigated and an explicit expression for mean explosion time is established. The mean global holding time is also obtained. It is revealed that these properties are substantially different between the super-explosive and sub-explosive cases. This work was partially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10771216), Research Grants Council of Hong Kong (Grant No. HKU 7010/06P) and Scientific Research Foundation for Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars, State Education Ministry of China (Grant No. [2007]1108)     

Rate of convergence in the law of large numbers for supercritical general multi-type branching processes

We provide sufficient conditions for polynomial rate of convergence in the weak law of large numbers for supercritical general indecomposable multi-type branching processes. The main result is derived by investigating the embedded single-type process composed of all individuals having the same type as the ancestor. As an important intermediate step, we determine the (exact) polynomial rate of convergence of Nerman’s martingale in continuous time to its limit. The techniques used also allow us to give streamlined proofs of the weak and strong laws of large numbers and ratio convergence for the processes in focus.     

Generalized Markov interacting branching processes

We consider a very general interacting branching process which includes most of the important interacting branching models considered so far. After obtaining some key preliminary results, we first obtain some elegant conditions regarding regularity and uniqueness. Then the extinction vector is obtained which is very easy to be calculated. The mean extinction time and the conditional mean extinction time are revealed. The mean explosion time and the total mean life time of the processes are also investigated and resolved.     

Continuous-State Branching Processes in Lévy Random Environments

A general continuous-state branching processes in random environment (CBRE-process) is defined as the strong solution of a stochastic integral equation. The environment is determined by a Lévy process with no jump less than \(-1\). We give characterizations of the quenched and annealed transition semigroups of the process in terms of a backward stochastic integral equation driven by another Lévy process determined by the environment. The process hits zero with strictly positive probability if and only if its branching mechanism satisfies Grey’s condition. In that case, a characterization of the extinction probability is given using a random differential equation with blowup terminal condition. The strong Feller property of the CBRE-process is established by a coupling method. We also prove a necessary and sufficient condition for the ergodicity of the subcritical CBRE-process with immigration.     

Limit theorems for strongly and intermediately supercritical branching processes in random environment with linear fractional offspring distributions

In the present paper, we characterize the behavior of supercritical branching processes in random environment with linear fractional offspring distributions, conditioned on having small, but positive values at some large generation. As it has been noticed in previous works, there is a phase transition in the behavior of the process. Here, we examine the strongly and intermediately supercritical regimes The main result is a conditional limit theorem for the rescaled associated random walk in the intermediately case.     

A necessary and sufficient condition for noncertain extinction of a branching process in a random environment (BPRE)

It is known that a branching process in a random environment (BPRE) which is subcritical or critical either dies with probability one or, in the trivial case, corresponds to an immortal sterile population. In the supercritical case, various conditions are known to be necessary for noncertain extinction while other conditions are known to be sufficient. In this paper, a necessary and sufficient condition for noncertain extinction of a supercritical BPRE is given. In particular, it is shown that a supercritical BPRE has noncertain extinction if and only if there exists a random truncation, depending only on the environmental sequence, such that the truncated BPRE is supercritical and such that the sequence of truncation points grows more slowly than any exponential sequence.