上海银行间同业拆放利率动态性研究

本文分析了2006年至2014年间上海银行间同业拆放利率市场隔夜、一周和一月利率品种的动态性。结论显示,短期利率存在显著的漂移项非线性,且随着期限延长而减弱;扩散项的非对称自相关性以及跳跃项的非连续性特征也显著地存在。比较而言,信息冲击非对称性比漂移项非线性的影响要大,而跳跃的影响最大。跳跃设定允许利率遵循混合正态过程,允许利率在两个不同状态之间转换。跳跃对利率水平值的贡献都很小,但对方差的贡献占比很高,且存在随期限延长而降低的趋势。     

基于预期理论的Shibor期限结构实证研究

本文基于利率期限结构预期理论对我国的Shibor市场进行了实证研究。本文回顾了利率期限结构预期理论的三种检验方法,通过单位根检验发现Shibor短端利率平稳、中长端利率存在单位根,并分别运用线性回归法、向量自回归法和协整检验法对Shibor整体、短端利率和中长端利率相应进行了实证检验,得出Shibor无论整体上还是短端利率或中长端利率都不支持预期理论成立的结论,并通过分析得出启示:Shibor应注重中长端利率的发展和报价制度的完善。     

基于变差理论的利率基准性已实现波动分析

从利率波动状况的角度,利用变差理论,对我国的三种利率体系短期利率的波动状况进行研究并分离出利率的跳跃过程。结果表明相对Libor美元报价利率的波动性,我国的利率短期品种波动性表现较为剧烈,跳跃现象频繁,这三种利率体系尚不能完全独立地作为我国货币市场的基准利率。但作为定价基准,回购定盘利率更适合做隔夜和一周的参考利率,Shibor一月期限的拆借利率要优于Chibor的一月拆借利率。本文结论有利于市场主体选择金融资产收益率的定价标准以及衡量国内利率体系的合理性。     

短期Shibor跳跃行为的利率模型解释

上海银行间同业拆借利率(Shibor)自运行以来,短期Shibor品种波动异常频繁和剧烈.本文通过对短期Shibor数据的描述和相关统计检验,构建了一个适合其动态特征的ARCH跳跃扩散模型,并通过实证表明,跳跃行为和ARCH效应是描述短期Shibor波动的主要因素.随后结合Shibor运行的宏微观背景,在该模型框架下进行分析,得到大型IPO和未预期到的货币政策调整是导致Shibor跳跃行为的两个主要原因.     

中国银行间拆借利率扩散模型的极大拟似然估计

本文用极大拟似然估计法估计了中国银行间市场七天拆借利率扩散模型的参数。并用自助法对众多不同的模型进行了广义拟似然比检验。结论表明:中国货币市场利率具有均值回复效应:利率敏感系数γ值为1.421265,对利率水平具有较高敏感性。     

基于不同核函数的非参数与参数利率模型的国债定价

以上海证券交易所的国债回购利率数据为样本,本文采用两种不同核函数:高斯核和抛物线核对非参数利率期限结构模型进行估计.结果显示:短期利率的密度函数是非正态的,扩散过程的漂移函数和扩散函数都是非线性的,高斯核比抛物线核对扩散函数拟合更平滑.然后,给出了基于非参数和参数利率模型的国债定价的方法,并对非参数利率模型、Vasicek模型、CIR模型、多项式样条静态模型进行国债定价预测比较与分析.     

考虑流动性的我国国债价格预测研究

随着金融改革的深化和利率市场化脚步的加快,我国的国债交易和国债市场已经得到了高速发展和充分成长.但在国债利率期限结构的研究方面还不够充分,仍有进一步完善的空间,在利率期限结构研究中考虑流动性的影响就是其中之一.从利率期限结构估计入手,将流动性以权重形式加入NSS模型,估计参数并预测国债价格.研究结果表明,加入流动性权重后,利率期限结构的预测性能显著提高,而且随着步长加大,效果更明显.     

关于货币市场结构转换利率期限结构的实证研究

基本的利率期限结构模型均未能将结构转换效应考虑进来,因此为了探讨结构转换架构下利率期限结构模型的特性,本文在中国货币市场利率数据的基础上对基本利率期限结构模型和结构转换利率期限结构模型进行了比较研究,结果发现中国货币市场利率动态中存在明显的结构转换效应,且在结构转换效应中其本身也存在着不稳定性,这充分反映了中国货币市场在发展过程中的不成熟特征.     

人民币短期利率行为研究方法的一个改进——双指数Jump-GARCH-Vasicek模型的构建与应用

受货币政策调控频率提升及大型新股申购等因素的影响,近年来人民币短期利率表现出明显的跳跃行为。为了更准确地描述利率跳跃行为,本文通过假设跳跃幅度服从双指数分布构建一个能刻画短期利率波动聚类、均值回复和跳跃行为的双指数Jump-GARCH-Vasicek模型。利用人民币短期利率数据,将双指数JumpGARCH-Vasicek模型与Vasicek模型、GARCH-Vasicek模型、正态Jump-Vasicek模型、双指数Jump-Vasicek模型、正态Jump-GARCH-Vasicek模型进行实证对比分析。研究结果表明,人民币短期利率确实存在GARCH效应、均值回复和跳跃行为,且双指数Jump-GARCH-Vasicek模型较其它模型能更好地刻画人民币短期利率的跳跃行为。     

基于NS混合模型的中国利率期限结构动态估计比较研究

采用NS混合模型动态估计中国利率期限结构,考察动态NS模型,无套利NS模型及广义无套利NS模型等NS混合模型对我国利率期限结构的动态估计效率,比较NS混合模型的样本外预测能力,检验无套利约束对混合模型动态估计的影响.本文的经验分析结果表明:无套利条件的引入增强了NS混合模型的样本内动态估计能力和样本外预测能力;五因素的广义无套利NS模型(AFGNS)无论在利率期限结构样本内动态估计还是在总体预测效率上都要高于其他模型,可将其作为利率期限结构研究的基础模型:     

Shibor作为基准利率的实证研究

运用我国金融市场的实际数据,从金融市场基准利率的基本属性的角度出发对Shibor和银行间债券回购利率进行了系统地比较分析,认为Shibor虽然运行时间不长,但却具备了基准利率的主要特征.Shibor作为基准利率更具有科学性.     

随机利率下服从分数O-U过程的欧式幂期权定价

该文考虑了利率和标的资产价格的随机性和均值回复行为,把扩展的Vasick模型和分数O-U过程进行组合,在随机利率环境下,研究了标的资产价格服从分数O-U过程的两类欧式幂期权定价问题,得到相应的定价公式,并给出了欧式幂期权的看涨.看跌平价关系.     

Time series of functional data with application to yield curves

We develop time series analysis of functional data observed discretely, treating the whole curve as a random realization from a distribution on functions that evolve over time. The method consists of principal components analysis of functional data and subsequently modeling the principal component scores as vector autoregressive moving averag (VARMA) process. We justify the method by showing that an underlying ARMAH structure of the curves leads to a VARMA structure on the principal component scores. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimators, fits, and forecast. For term structures of interest rates, these provide a unified framework for studying the time and maturity components of interest rates under one setup with few parametric assumptions. We apply the method to the yield curves of USA and India. We compare our forecasts to the parametric model that is based on Nelson‐Siegel curves. In another application, we study the dependence of long term interest rate on the short term interest rate using functional regression.     

An E-ARCH model for the term structure of implied volatility of FX options

We construct a statistical model for the term-structure of implied volatilities of currency options based on daily historical data for 13 currency pairs over a 19-month period. We examine the joint evolution of 1 month, 2 month, 3 month, 6 month and 1 year at-the-money (50 δ) options in all the currency pairs. We show that there exist three uncorrelated state variables (principal components) which account for the parallel movement, slope oscillation, and curvature of the term structure and which explain, on average, the movements of the termstructure of volatility to more than 95% in all cases. We test and construct an exponential ARCH, or E-ARCH, model for each state variable. One of the applications of this model is to produce confidence bands for the term structure of volatility.     

利率期限结构与宏观经济变量的相互关系研究

本文研究了利率期限结构与宏观经济变量之间的相互关系。运用利率期限结构与宏观经济变量的无套利模型,对向量自回归模型进行了扩展,将其引入到状态空间模型框架中,基于卡尔曼滤波并结合EM算法对模型参数进行了有效估计,结合实际数据对利率期限结构与宏观经济变量的相互影响关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:利率期限结构与宏观经济变量的双向影响关系显著;宏观经济变量对利率期限结构具有一定的解释力;研究利率期限结构时,宏观经济变量的影响作用不能忽略。     

Annual block scheduling for internal medicine residents with 4+1 templates

Internal Medicine residency programmes have traditionally been structured around monthly or 4-week blocks where a different rotation is assigned to each block over the year. A subset of those rotations carry the requirement of one or two half-day sessions of clinic duty per week. In the last several years, a growing number of Internal Medicine residency programmes have moved away from this traditional structure and have adopted an ‘X+Y’ template, where the resident spends X weeks on a rotation without clinic duty and then Y weeks mostly in clinic. This paper addresses the ‘4+1’ annual block scheduling problem as adopted by the Department of Medicine at the University of Texas Health Science Center in San Antonio (UTHSC-SA). We believe it is the first attempt to investigate the problem formally; specifically, we develop a series of optimization models that can be used to construct individual block schedules for the academic year and to assign clinic sessions to the residents during their ambulatory week. (At UTHSC-SA, Internal Medicine residents are divided into five groups to match the 4+1 pattern, and scheduled so only one group at a time has clinic responsibilities each of the 52 weeks.) The objective is to balance the workload during the half-day clinic sessions and to ensure that each resident receives roughly the same training experiences over their programme. Once the blocks and groups are known, a second optimization problem is solved to determine individual clinic session assignments. The basic model takes the form of a mixed-integer program but was not solvable with commercial software. After decomposing it into two parts, we were able to find optimal solutions to the original problem. Complexity results are provided for the problems solved. Compared with current practice, our decomposition approach was seen to offer improved schedules with respect to the workload balance objective for each of the five resident groups.