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1.
能源消费与产业发展的协整性与因果关系分析   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
能源消费与经济增长关系密切,本文利用协整理论,检验了我国能源消费总量与国民生产总值以及三次产业之间的协整性和Granger因果关系,并且建立了向量误差修正模型。研究结果表明,我国能源消费与GDP以及第一产业、第三产业之间存在协整关系,但是能源消费与第二产业之间并不存在长期的均衡关系。并且,GDP和三次产业只是能源消费的单向Granger因果关系,它们之间并不存在双向的Granger因果关系。  相似文献   

2.
基于先行指标体系研究贸易周期,对于探测周期的拐点有重要的作用,进一步对出口、进口周期之间的关系以及出口、进口与经济周期之间的关系进行研究,将可以探测系统的拐点.然而,目前传统的景气分析方法只能针对一个经济周期进行分析,不能同时考虑多个周期的联动关系.而多维周期分析方法能够同时分析多个周期之间的动态关系及其演变过程,从而全面地反应经济周期的运行规律.本文首先对多维周期的分析方法进行了理论上的介绍;其次,运用FHLR方法构建了我国贸易周期的多维一致指数;然后,运用多维方法对贸易周期及其与重要经济变量的关系进行了多维分析,得出了一些重要结论.  相似文献   

3.
本文运用面板数据模型,对我国各省1996-2005年人均GDP及三次产业产值比重的关系分别进行了模型拟合,结论认为:我国经济增长对产业结构变化的影响显著,而后者对前者的影响在统计上并不显著,我国经济增长模式是需求导向型的。其次,就各次产业与人均GDP的关系看,第一产业与人均GDP呈现负相关关系,而第二、三产业与人均GDP呈现正相关关系。  相似文献   

4.
采用面板协整模型对我国东部地区、中部地区和西部地区数据进行了研究,分析了对外贸易、FDI和经济增长之间的关系,结果发现对外贸易、FDI与经济增长之间都存在稳定的面板协整关系,对外贸易和FDI对三个地区的经济增长都起到了很大的促进作用.  相似文献   

5.
山东省三次产业就业需求结构分析与预测研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本文采用成分数据建模方法,构建了山东省三次产业就业结构预测模型和偏最小二乘通径分析模型,并利用所构建的模型对山东省2007年~2010年三次产业就业结构进行了预测分析,分析了山东省三次产业就业需求结构与产业投资结构、三次产业产值结构之间的关联关系.研究发现,山东省第一、二、三次产业就业需求结构由2000年的(53.1%:23.6%:23.3%)逐步优化,到2010年将演变为(23.6%:43.5%:32.9%),与现代产业发展规律相比还滞后很多.第二产业就业需求呈增长趋势,与我国经济发展处于工业化中期相符,为适应这种发展,第三产业就业比重尚显不足,急需大力发展第三产业以促进就业需求.通径分析模型测算结果显示,山东省产业就业需求结构发展呈现出较明显的投资拉动模式.其中,第一、三产业的投资对GDP,GDP对就业均有较强的拉动作用,且拉动效率较高;第二产业的投资对GDP有较强的拉动作用,随着制造产业的技术进步,第二产业产值的增大将通过促进第三产业的发展拉动就业.加大对三次产业的投资特别是第三产业的投资以增强第三产业吸纳就业的能力是提高就业需求的有效途径.  相似文献   

6.
一个经济周期模型的稳定性及其近似解   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
以GDP为研究对象建立了一个新的经济周期模型.首先研究了经济周期模型在不动点处的稳定性以及分岔行为;解释了稳定极限环与经济周期之间的关系;然后利用多尺度摄动法得到了此模型的一阶近似解,分析了收入变量在一个经济周期中的波动过程.  相似文献   

7.
我国的地方政府债务正处于快速膨胀的时期,其对经济增长的影响引起了社会的广泛关注.基于我国30个省份2004~2015年的面板数据,运用空间面板模型对地方政府债务与区域经济增长之间的非线性影响关系进行了实证检验,研究表明两者关系存在明显的区域差异性:就全国样本和东部地区样本而言,地方政府债务与区域经济增长之间存在显著的"倒U"型非线性影响关系;而在中西部地区,在考虑省份之间的经济空间相关性后,此种影响关系并不显著.这说明,由于我国区域经济发展条件存在较大差异,地方政府债务对不同区域经济增长的影响也不尽相同,针对性的政府债务管理措施十分必要.  相似文献   

8.
运用DEA-Malmquist指数对河南省1996-2018年三次产业的全要素生产率(TFP)进行测算,并用灰色关联度对测算结果与开放型经济关系进行分析,结果表明:河南省三次产业的TFP呈现不同的变化趋势,且受技术进步变化影响较大;开放型经济对河南省三次产业TFP及分解产生不同程度的积极的影响.因此河南省可以通过跨国并购、直接投资或者技术引进,与技术密集型外资企业建立联系,以技术溢出形式获得技术进步,从而提升河南省全要素生产率的提升.  相似文献   

9.
将频率滤波技术与Granger因果关系检验相结合,基于谱频率带分析了我国经济增长与物价波动之间的因果关系,从频率分量的角度,说明了我国经济增长和物价波动之间基本因果关系的成因.又对一个序列的某一频率分量与另一个序列之间的因果关系以及两序列对应频率分量之间的因果关系进行了分析.本文的结论可以为在经济实践中充分认识两者的关系,进而加以应用提供依据.  相似文献   

10.
本文考察了1980~2010年间我国价格贸易条件均值水平及波动性变化对经济增长的影响.研究结果表明:不仅价格贸易条件均值水平对我国的经济增长具有明显推动作用,而且价格贸易条件波动性也与经济增长之间存在着显著的正相关关系.研究结论和基于跨国数据所得出的"价格贸易条件波动性与经济增长之间负相关"的经验结论截然不同.这意味着我国在管理和干预价格贸易条件变化过程中,不要忽视适度的价格贸易条件波动性对经济增长的正向影响和积极作用.  相似文献   

11.
In this paper we analyze a macroeconomic model derived from Schinasi’s model of a closed economy. Rigorous analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium is carried out. We present a formula for the calculation of the focus constant in the bifurcation equation of the model. Thereafter we prove the existence and stability of business cycles by application of the Hopf bifurcation theorem. Finally, we give an example of a model with a stable business cycle and its graphical illustrations.  相似文献   

12.
Orders for new chemical plant (sanctions) and investment in chemical plant both show marked business cycle like variations. Amongst the effects of the UK cycle on the Chemical Industry are variations in: new plant additions, requirements for capital expenditure finance and capital utilization. As far as the UK Process Plant Contractors and Process Plant Manufacturers are concerned, the cycle is reflected in a varying work-load arising from the UK Chemical Industry together with varying manpower requirements and profitability.The project described in this paper involved the construction of both System Dynamics and Control Systems models of the Investment Cycle as a guide to strategic planning for the industries affected by it.The implications of the results from both types of model for corporate and strategic planning in the industries concerned are discussed.  相似文献   

13.
In 2008 the global economy was rocked by a crisis that began on Wall Street, but quickly spread to Main Street U.S.A., and then to side streets around the world. Statisticians working in the service sector are not immune, with many concerned about losing their jobs. Given this dramatic course of events, how should statisticians respond? What, if anything, can we do to help our struggling organizations survive this recession, in order to prosper in the future? This expository article describes some approaches that we feel can help service industries deal with aftereffects of the financial meltdown. Based on an understanding of current needs of the service industries, we emphasize three approaches in particular: a greater emphasis on statistical engineering relative to statistical science, ‘embedding’ statistical methods and principles into key business processes, and the reinvigoration of Lean Six Sigma to drive immediate, tangible business results. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
In this paper, we analyze a augmented IS-LM business cycle model with the capital accumulation equation that two time delays are considered in investment processes according to Kalecki’s idea. Applying stability switch criteria and Hopf bifurcation theory, we prove that time delays cause the equilibrium to lose or gain stability and Hopf bifurcation occurs.  相似文献   

15.
Agile Manufacturing (AM) is a manufacturing paradigm that focuses on smaller scale, modular production facilities, and agile operations capable of dealing with turbulent and changing environments. From several enablers of AM, Virtual Enterprise (VE) and Information Technology (IT) were chosen. This empirical study explored the impact of the alignment between VE and IT on business performance in an AM setting for five different industries. Extensive data collection strategy and several tests were used to establish the reliability and validity of the data collected. Extensive analyses of the data using Structural Equation Modeling were performed for five hypotheses across five different industries. The results indicate that both VE and IT had positive influences on business performance for all industries. It was also established that the alignment between VE and IT had a positive impact on business performance for all industries. Further, it was shown that the impact of the alignment between VE and IT on business performance was more significant than the impact of VE and IT on business performance individually for all industries. The statistical analyses and results showed that there were no significant differences among the industries surveyed. At the bivariate level of analysis, some minor differences for one industry were highlighted. In conclusion, the assessment of the results along with future research directions is provided.  相似文献   

16.
结合H-P滤波法和King,Plosser&.Robelo(1987)的研究,探讨了一个求解引入居民消费的习惯形成和存在稳态趋势增长的RBC模型的对数线性化方法,并利用该方法求解引入习惯形成和政府支出冲击的三部门RBC模型来分析中国1979-2009年间宏观经济波动.研究表明:这个方法求解本文模型的预测结果与中国的特征事实较一致;与NHG方法求解的预测结果相比较,二者存在明显的差异;对中国经济的解释力要强于NHG方法求解的预测结果.  相似文献   

17.
On the basis of the work of Goodwin and Puu, a new business cycle model subject to a stochastically parametric excitation is derived in this paper. At first, we reduce the model to a one-dimensional diffusion process by applying the stochastic averaging method of quasi-nonintegrable Hamiltonian system. Secondly, we utilize the methods of Lyapunov exponent and boundary classification associated with diffusion process respectively to analyze the stochastic stability of the trivial solution of system. The numerical results obtained illustrate that the trivial solution of system must be globally stable if it is locally stable in the state space. Thirdly, we explore the stochastic Hopf bifurcation of the business cycle model according to the qualitative changes in stationary probability density of system response. It is concluded that the stochastic Hopf bifurcation occurs at two critical parametric values. Finally, some explanations are given in a simply way on the potential applications of stochastic stability and bifurcation analysis.  相似文献   

18.
基于景气跟踪图的经济景气分析方法   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
首次将景气跟踪图方法引入中国经济景气分析中,并从宏观经济和行业分析两个维度对中国经济景气情况进行了分析.景气跟踪图方法基于时钟分析方法,对多个重要的经济时间序列指标的发展、运行进行跟踪,进而分析国民经济运行状态.景气跟踪图方法是一种新的景气分析方法,目前多用于宏观经济分析,作者尝试将其引入到行业分析中.针对直接采用原有景气跟踪图可能存在的问题,作者结合先行指标体系进行景气跟踪图分析,同时提出了基于景气跟踪图的经济持久期分析方法.中国经济的实证结果表明改进的景气跟踪图方法在宏观经济与行业分析中均有非常良好的表现,是现有景气分析方法的很好改进与补充.  相似文献   

19.
提高碳生产率对保持碳的稳定和经济持续增长具有重要意义.基于投入产出模型对中国2002-2012年26个行业的碳生产率进行测算,并通过构建Tapio脱钩指标对其进行动态分析.结果显示我国碳生产率总体在波动中上升,存在阶段性特征,行业差异明显,且第二产业总体水平偏低;行业脱钩指数总体呈现出弱脱钩—增长连结交替出现的发展特征.  相似文献   

20.

Factoring business, an important aspect in the supply chain finance field, has significant potential in adopting blockchain-based intelligent contract technology. Based on the existing theories of factoring business in supply chains, this paper conducts a coupling analysis between blockchain technology and supply chain factoring business. Specifically, we propose the application scenarios of blockchain-based intelligent contract technology in the supply chain factoring business from three aspects: the division and transfer of creditors’ rights certificate, the factoring financing of upstream suppliers, and the due payment of core enterprises, and elaborate their implementation processes. Furthermore, from a game theoretical perspective, we analyze the mechanism of the key technology implementation of the intelligent contract to verify whether the nodes on the blockchains will follow the relevant protocols to automatically execute them. Finally, we conduct a three-way game analysis of the supply chain factor financing process and obtain an equilibrium solution based on the principle of utility maximization, which highlights the optimization effect of the intelligent contract technology on the decision-making behavior of individual entities in the supply chain.

  相似文献   

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