相关随机利率下的双二项模型的破产概率

研究带有相关随机利率的双二项风险模型,得到了破产概率的积分表达式,并利用鞅分析的方法得到了破产概率的经典Lundberg上界,另外给出了一个破产概率的比经典Lundberg上界更精确的上界.     

一类相依索赔离散风险模型研究

研究了一类相依索赔的离散风险模型,得到了利率为0时模型的最终破产概率所满足的积分方程,以及破产持续n期的概率所满足的表达式.进而,得到了利率不为0时该模型的最终破产概率所满足的积分方程,并利用鞅论技巧导出了最终破产概率的一个Lundberg型上界,最后运用Matlab软件随机模拟破产概率并与Lundberg型上界作比较.     

经济环境下引入投资的古典风险模型的破产概率

本文研究经济环境下引入投资的古典风险模型的破产概率,在保险公司有风险投资的情况下,利用鞅方法我们得到了调解系数方程和破产概率的上界.     

随机利率下变保费的复合二项模型

本文研究具有随机利率和保费计数为二项过程的离散时间复合二项模型.我们推导出有限时间破产概率的递归式和破产概率的积分方程,并利用归纳法得到破产概率的Lundberg不等式.     

一类推广的复合Poisson模型破产概率的上界估计

对于一类推广的复合Poisson风险模型,利用破产概率所满足的一个瑕疵更新方程以及离散寿命分布类的性质获得了关于最终破产概率的函数型上界估计.     

在风险投资下破产概率的一个渐近显式

在本文中, 我们研究了一个离散时间风险模型的破产概率\bd 在此风险模型中, 保险公司的剩余资本被用于进行风险投资\bd 我们运用纯概率的手法建立了无限时间破产概率的渐近显式, 从而将Tang和Tsitsiashvili (2003)近期的一个结果推广到了无限时间的场合.     

一类离散时间带随机收入风险模型的带壁分红问题

我们给出了一类离散时间的具有随机收入的非寿险风险模型,研究了该模型的常数壁分红问题.得到了该模型破产发生时Gerber-Shiu折扣惩罚函数.考虑了破产时的期望,有限时间破产概率.最后我们给出了一个例.     

最优多期比例再保险策略的必要条件

研究最小化保险公司破产概率的最优多期比例再保险策略,给出了保险公司最小破产概率的一个递归表达式,证明了可用动态规划方法求解此类问题.在此基础上,我们推导出最优多期比例再保险策略的几个必要条件.     

双更新风险模型

本文讨论了具有两个到达过程的更新模型,在只要求点间间距的分布是绝对连续的简单条件下,利用鞅的乘积性质,得到了最终破产概率和有限时间破产概率的一个上界.     

竞争型二元风险模型破产概率

本文研究了竞争型的二元风险模型,定义了两类破产概率以及状态过程,利用经典风险模型的已有结果和条件期望的性质,得到两类破产概率表达式,以及单个保险公司有限时间破产概率和最终破产概率,并给出两个保险公司的状态过程的概率分布列.     

On the decomposition of the absolute ruin probability in a perturbed compound Poisson surplus process with debit interest

We consider a compound Poisson surplus process perturbed by diffusion with debit interest. When the surplus is below zero or the company is on deficit, the company is allowed to borrow money at a debit interest rate to continue its business as long as its debt is at a reasonable level. When the surplus of a company is below a certain critical level, the company is no longer profitable, we say that absolute ruin occurs at this situation. In this risk model, absolute ruin may be caused by a claim or by oscillation. Thus, the absolute ruin probability in the model is decomposed as the sum of two absolute ruin probabilities, where one is the probability that absolute ruin is caused by a claim and the other is the probability that absolute ruin is caused by oscillation. In this paper, we first give the integro-differential equations satisfied by the absolute ruin probabilities and then derive the defective renewal equations for the absolute ruin probabilities. Using these defective renewal equations, we derive the asymptotical forms of the absolute ruin probabilities when the distributions of claim sizes are heavy-tailed and light-tailed. Finally, we derive explicit expressions for the absolute ruin probabilities when claim sizes are exponentially distributed.     

Dividend payments with a threshold strategy in the compound Poisson risk model perturbed by diffusion

In the absence of dividends, the surplus of an insurance company is modelled by a compound Poisson process perturbed by diffusion. Dividends are paid at a constant rate whenever the modified surplus is above the threshold, otherwise no dividends are paid. Two integro-differential equations for the expected discounted dividend payments prior to ruin are derived and closed-form solutions are given. Accordingly, the Gerber–Shiu expected discounted penalty function and some ruin related functionals, the probability of ultimate ruin, the time of ruin and the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin, are considered and their analytic expressions are given by general solution formulas. Finally the moment-generating function of the total discounted dividends until ruin is discussed.     

变破产下限风险模型的破产概率

近年来,很多文献对经典风险模型作了研究,并得出许多有用的结论。一般文献都是假定保险公司的破产下限为零,但在实际的保险实务中,当保险公司的盈余低于某一限度时,保险公司就要调整政策或宣布破产。本文研究了经典风险模型在假定变破产下限下的破产概率,得出了破产概率所满足的不等式,而且研究了当破产下限f(t)为某些特殊函数时,破产概率所满足的不等式或破产概率的具体表达式。最后本文给出了在推广后的风险模型中变破产下限破产概率所满足的不等式。     

Ruin problems for a discrete time risk model with random interest rate

In this paper, we study a discrete time risk model with random interest rate. The convergence of the discounted surplus process is proved by using martingale techniques, an expression of ruin probability is obtained, and bounds for ruin probability are included. In the second part of the paper, the distribution of surplus immediately after ruin, the distribution of surplus just before ruin, the joint distribution of the surplus immediately before and after ruin, and the distribution of ruin time are discussed.     

随机利率离散时间风险模型的破产问题

本文研究了引入随机利率的离散时间风险模型, 得到了破产持续时间的分布、盈余回复为正后的瞬间的盈余分布、 破产前最大盈余的分布、破产前盈余破产后赤字与破产前最大盈余的联合分布、 有限时间内穿出水平$x$的分布所满足的积分方程, 并同时证明了所得积分方程解的存在唯一性.     

具有Vasicek利率的风险过程的破产概率的分解(英文)

In this paper, it is assumed that an insurer with a jump-diffusion risk process would invest its surplus in a bond market, and the interest structure of the bond market is assumed to follow the Vasicek interest model. This paper focuses on the studying of the ruin problems in the above compounded process. In this compounded risk model, ruin may be caused by a claim or oscillation. We decompose the ruin probability for the compounded risk process into two probabilities： the probability that ruin caused by a claim and the probability that ruin caused by oscillation. Integro-differential equations for these ruin probabilities are derived. When the claim sizes are exponentially distributed, the above-mentioned integro-differential equations can be reduced into a three-order partial differential equation.     

稀疏过程下变破产下限多元相依风险模型的破产概率

研究了稀疏过程下多元相依风险模型在假定变破产下限的破产概率,其中索赔产生时依赖概率ρ的可能性同时产生一次续保,即续保过程是索赔的ρ-稀疏过程.运用鞅方法得到了当破产下限为某些特征函数时破产概率所满足的不等式或破产概率的具体表达式.     

Limit theorem for the moment of ruin for integrated Gaussian stationary process with power function as profit

The asymptotic distribution of the moment of ruin is obtained for the ruin problem with the loss rate in the form of a Gaussian stationary process and a power function as profit. Mean losses are found in the case of ruin.     

索赔额是指数分布的马氏风险模型的破产概率

本文研究了马氏风险模型的破产概率,在索赔额服从指数分布或混合指数分布情形,通过解破产概率所满足的微积方程组,给出了破产概率的解析表达式.     

随机保费风险模型下的平均折现罚金函数

本文研究随机保费风险模型下与破产时刻相关的平均折现罚金函数. 与经典的Cram\'{e}r-Lundberg模型相比这里的保费过程不再是时间的线性函数, 而是一个与理赔独立的复合Possion过程. 我们得到了罚金函数所满足的积分方程, 它提供了一种研究破产量的统一方法. 利用该积分方程我们得到了破产时刻, 破产时赤字, 破产前瞬时盈余的Laplace变换; 并在指数分布的特殊情况下求出了他们的显著表达式, 推广了Boikov (2003)的结论.