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1.
上海股市波动的预测方式和模型   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
探讨基于 SV类模型的上海股市波动的预测方式和模型问题 .比较了 SV( stochastic volatility)类模型 (包括基本 SV模型和 ASV模型 )在两种不同方式下的预测效果 ,并将基本 SV类模型的预测效果与 ASV模型 ,以及其他常用模型做了比较 .结果表明 :SV类模型在两种预测方式下的预测效果存在一定的差异 ;基本 SV模型对于上海股市具有较强的预测能力 ;ASV模型的预测效果不理想 .  相似文献   

2.
徐建兵 《中学数学》2023,(10):72-74
初中阶段函数教学要关注数学知识与实际的结合,经历数量关系和变化规律的探究,从选择模型、建立模型、求解模型、验证模型和应用模型的过程中形成函数模型观念.指向函数模型观念的中考试题研究,是数学模型教学开展、学生模型观念形成和新课程标准落地的着力点.  相似文献   

3.
运用时间序列分析的预测方法,对四大银行的股票日对数收益率序列进行拟合与预测分析,分别构建ARMA模型、GARCH模型以及ARMA-GARCH组合模型,通过模型比较,实证分析表明:在拟合效果上,ARMA-GARCH模型的拟合优度优于ARMA模型和GARCH模型;在预测效果上,ARMA模型的预测效果最优,ARMA-GARCH模型次之.  相似文献   

4.
基于中国人口死亡率数据, 对APC模型进行扩展, 并将扩展的死亡率模型(EAPC模型)与APC模型和LC模型进行对比. 通过比较模型的拟合效果和预测效果, 并对其稳定性进行检验, 发现由APC模型扩展而来的EAPC模型更适合于拟合和预测中国的人口死亡率, 这为我国死亡率模型的使用提供了更多可行的方案.  相似文献   

5.
黄金价格时间序列数据具有较强的非线性,在采用单模型对其预测时较多采用线性模型、非线性模型以及加入外生变量的非线性模型.但是,单一模型较难全面体现黄金数据的非线性特征,因此,预测效果不很理想.在利用线性方法进行模型组合时若被组合模型与原数据序列无线性关系,此时采用线性组合预测效果较差,甚至组合后的模型预测精度低于被组合的单模型精度.为充分发挥单一模型的优势,采用人工智能的方法建立非线性组合预测模型,模型可有效利用各模型特点,预测精度优于采用的各单一模型.  相似文献   

6.
盈余管理计量模型效力的实证研究   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
本文以随机抽取的上海和深圳证券交易所的1000家被并购上市公司为样本,研究了盈余管理计量模型的检验效力问题。本文通过三种验证各模型效力的实证方法比较了6种盈余管理的计量模型。研究发现:第一类误差的方法认为Healy模型、修正的琼斯模型和前瞻性修正的琼斯模型能有效地检验出盈余管理行为:预测误差标准方法则认为前瞻性修正的琼斯模型是最优的模型:而根据对操纵性应计部分的短期效应的实证则认为Healy模型、修正的琼斯模型、KS模型和前瞻性修正的琼斯模型是较优的计量模型。在综合考虑各种实证结果和中国资本市场实际情况的基础上,认为前瞻性修正的琼斯模型在中国证券市场检验盈余管理行为的效力最强。  相似文献   

7.
股票价格波动的塑性性质及模型探讨   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
首先基于股票价格和成交量,根据股票的量价规律,分析了股价波动的塑性性质;然后使用计量经济学方法建立描述股价波动的塑性模型,包括股价塑性基本模型、基本模型的一阶自回归模型、幂指数模型及幂指数模型的一阶自回归模型,基于12支样本股对这些模型进行参数估计和检验;最后对4种形式的股价塑性模型进行了总结。由4种模型均能够通过经济学检验和统计学检验可知股价波动具有塑性性质,且幂指数模型描述股价塑性较为科学、合理。  相似文献   

8.
最近可加危险(AH)模型被广泛地应用于生存分析数据,模型的协变量可以假设为时间独立或时间相关的.基于混合治愈模型,有界累计危险治愈模型和"不正确"的比例危险模型.本文将上述的可乘危险模型延伸到可加的危险模型,这里的模型可以允许含治愈部分的生存数据的存在."不正确"的AH模型的识别和参数估计也将在本文给出讨论.  相似文献   

9.
Frailty模型和可加故障模型在研究各种风险因素与疾病发生原因的关系中提供了两种重要的方法.在不知哪个模型更适合数据时,涵盖这两个模型的成比例附加故障模型提供了一个备选模型.Frailty基本上是观察不到的,需要考虑对应的混合模型.本文研究了成比例附加故障混合模型的年龄性质、相依性质.并对该模型中的那些随机变量进行了随机比较.  相似文献   

10.
Sargent改进的Powell方法是曲线拟合中的一种重要方法。本文利用这种方法针对蕴藻浜特大桥沉降中的实测数据给出了五种模型下的沉降预测,这些模型包括双曲线斜率倒数模型、Vander Veen指数模型、宇都一马指数模型、龚帕兹模型、以及波松曲线模型,并发现这种方法对波松旋回模型和灰色系统模型适用性不强。  相似文献   

11.
The coagulation-fragmentation process models the stochastic evolution of a population of N particles distributed into groups of different sizes that coagulate and fragment at given rates. The process arises in a variety of contexts and has been intensively studied for a long time. As a result, different approximations to the model were suggested. Our paper deals with the exact model which is viewed as a time-homogeneous interacting particle system on the state space N, the set of all partitions of N. We obtain the stationary distribution (invariant measure) on N for the whole class of reversible coagulation-fragmentation processes, and derive explicit expressions for important functionals of this measure, in particular, the expected numbers of groups of all sizes at the steady state. We also establish a characterization of the transition rates that guarantee the reversibility of the process. Finally, we make a comparative study of our exact solution and the approximation given by the steady-state solution of the coagulation-fragmentation integral equation, which is known in the literature. We show that in some cases the latter approximation can considerably deviate from the exact solution.  相似文献   

12.
文章研究了格子点上带扩散的非齐次聚合分解过程(HCFP)的对偶性, 给出了HCFP的平稳分布和HCFP 的积分形式的BBGKY hierarchy.  相似文献   

13.
We establish an H-Theorem for solutions to the continuous coagulation-fragmentation equation under the detailed balance condition. We deduce the convergence of the solution to an equilibrium state via a LaSalle invariance principle.  相似文献   

14.
We consider the diffusive continuous coagulation-fragmentation equations with and without scattering and show that they admit unique strong solutions for a large class of initial values. If the latter values are small with respect to a suitable norm, we provide sufficient conditions for global-in-time existence in the absence of fragmentation.  相似文献   

15.
The existence of at least one mass-conserving solution for continuous coagulation-fragmentation equation has been established by Escobedo et?al. (J Differ Equ 195:143?C174, 2003) for a large class of coagulation kernels under strong binary fragmentation. In this work, uniqueness of mass-conserving solutions is demonstrated with some additional restrictions on the fragmentation kernels.  相似文献   

16.
The aim of this two-part paper is to investigate the stability properties of a special class of solutions to a coagulation-fragmentation equation. We assume that the coagulation kernel is close to the diagonal kernel, and that the fragmentation kernel is diagonal. In a companion paper we constructed a two-parameter family of stationary solutions concentrated in Dirac masses, and we carefully studied the asymptotic decay of the tails of these solutions, showing that this behaviour is stable. In this paper we prove that for initial data which are sufficiently concentrated, the corresponding solutions approach one of these stationary solutions for large times.  相似文献   

17.
The initial value problem for the discrete coagulation-fragmentation system with diffusion is studied. This is an infinite countable system of reaction-diffusion equations describing coagulation and fragmentation of discrete clusters moving by spatial diffusion in all space . The model considered in this work is a generalization of Smoluchowski's discrete coagulation equations. Existence of global-in-time weak solutions to the Cauchy problem is proved under natural assumptions on initial data for unbounded coagulation and fragmentation coefficients. This work extends existence theory for this system from the case of clusters distribution on bounded domain subject to no-flux boundary condition to the case of all   相似文献   

18.
LetY=(y1,y2, ...),y1≥y2≥..., be the list of sizes of the cycles in the composition ofcn transpositions on the set {1, 2, ...,n}. We prove that ifc>1/2 is constant andn → ∞, the distribution off(c)Y/n converges toPD(1), the Poisson-Dirichlet distribution with parameter 1, where the functionf is known explicitly. A new proof is presented of the theorem by Diaconis, Mayer-Wolf, Zeitouni and Zerner stating that thePD(1) measure is the unique invariant measure for the uniform coagulation-fragmentation process. In loving memory of my parents, Hanna and Mickey Schramm  相似文献   

19.
Our work is motivated by Bourque and Pevzner's (2002) simulation study of the effectiveness of the parsimony method in studying genome rearrangement, and leads to a surprising result about the random transposition walk on the group of permutations on n elements. Consider this walk in continuous time starting at the identity and let D t be the minimum number of transpositions needed to go back to the identity from the location at time t. D t undergoes a phase transition: the distance D cn /2u(c)n, where u is an explicit function satisfying u(c)=c/2 for c≤1 and u(c)<c/2 for c>1. In addition, we describe the fluctuations of D cn /2 about its mean in each of the three regimes (subcritical, critical and supercritical). The techniques used involve viewing the cycles in the random permutation as a coagulation-fragmentation process and relating the behavior to the Erdős-Renyi random graph model.  相似文献   

20.
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