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1.
Mortality forecasting is the basis of population forecasting. In recent years, new progress has been made in mortality models. From the earliest static mortality models, mortality models have been developed into dynamic forecasting models including time terms, such as Lee-Carter model family, CBD model family and so on. This paper reviews and sorts out relevant literature on mortality forecasting models. With the development of dynamic models, some scholars have developed a series of mortality improvement models based on the level of mortality improvement. In addition, with the progress of mortality research, multi-population mortality modeling attracted the attention of researchers, and the multi-population forecasting models have been constantly developed and improved, which play an important role in the mortality forecasting. With the continuous enrichment and innovation of mortality model research methods, new statistical methods (such as machine learning) have been applied in mortality modeling, and the accuracy of fitting and prediction has been improved. In addition to the extension of classical modeling methods, issues such as small-area population or missing data of the population, the elderly population, the related population mortality modeling are still worth studying.  相似文献   

2.
卢捷  李峰 《运筹与管理》2020,29(9):27-33
针对在现实生活中, 经典GM(1,1)模型预测精度不稳定, 且以往的优化方法大部分具有片面性的缺点, 文章对经典GM(1,1)模型背景值与初始值进行改进, 提出了一种组合优化方法:根据动态寻优原则, 将背景值设为变量, 其参数以及时间响应式由MRE取最小值时确定;同时, 采用差分方程取代以x(1)(1)为固定点的静态方程。将初始值和背景值看作变量, 以系统地减少模型误差。结合国内石油年消费量数据, 分别应用经典和改进后的GM(1,1)模型进行计算和误差对比, 验证了改进后的模型精度要显著优于经典模型。  相似文献   

3.
本文在Solow模型框架中引入随时间变动人口增长函数,并假定人口增长率最终趋于零,证明该模型的解是渐近稳定的,收敛于零人口增长率的经典Solow模型的解。通过引入变动人口增长率,讨论人口过渡时期和人口波动对经济增长的影响,并给出数值计算结果。  相似文献   

4.
We investigate asymptotic dynamics of the classical Leslie–Gower competition model when both competing populations are subject to Allee effects. The system may possess four interior steady states. It is proved that for certain parameter regimes both competing populations may either go extinct, coexist or one population drives the other population to extinction depending on initial conditions.  相似文献   

5.
Colleen D. Cutler 《Extremes》2009,12(4):297-325
The phenomenon of classical regression to the mean was described by Sir Francis Galton in a series of prestigious works in the 19th century. This phenomenon refers to the fact that, in the presence of measurement error, experimental units which give rise to extreme values upon first sampling typically produce less extreme values upon a second independent (or repeat) sampling. This shift from the tails toward the population mean occurs even though there has been no intervention or change in the underlying population or error distributions. The mathematical ideas used to explain this shift typically appeal to correlation arguments and the classical Gaussian model. In this paper we study repeat sampling effects in the tails of arbitrary distributions. Perhaps surprisingly, we are able to show that there are actually three distinct asymptotic repeat sampling effects, of which only one corresponds to Galton’s classical result. These three effects depend on the heaviness of the population tails. In particular, for population distributions with relatively heavy tails the maximum shift occurs in the interior of the distribution. In this case the classical regression effect of Galton actually disappears out in the tails.  相似文献   

6.
To estimate the optimal constant in Hardy-type inequalities, some variational formulas and approximating procedures are introduced. The known basic estimates are improved considerably. The results are illustrated by typical examples. It is shown that the sharp factor is meaningful for each finite interval and a classical sharp model is re-examined.  相似文献   

7.
In this paper, we show that under suitable simple assumptions the classical two populations system may exhibit unexpected behaviors. Considering a more elaborated social model, in which the individuals of one population gather together in herds, while the other one shows a more individualistic behavior, we model the fact that interactions among the two occur mainly through the perimeter of the herd. We account for all types of populations’ interactions, symbiosis, competition and the predator–prey interactions. There is a situation in which competitive exclusion does not hold: the socialized herd behavior prevents the competing individualistic population from becoming extinct. For the predator–prey case, sustained limit cycles are possible, the existence of Hopf bifurcations representing a distinctive feature of this model compared with other classical predator–prey models. The system’s behavior is fully captured by just one suitably introduced new threshold parameter, defined in terms of the original model parameters.  相似文献   

8.
This paper concentrates on studying the long-term behavior of a single species in a polluted closed environment. We improve the rudimentary population model of Hallam and the classical Gallopin resource–consumer model, assuming that a born organism takes with it a quantity of internal toxicant, and the amount of toxicant stored in each living organism which dies is drifted into the environment. Sufficient criteria for persistence or extinction of the consumer population are obtained. The threshold between persistence and extinction will be established in some cases.  相似文献   

9.
经典的生物模型中,关键参数的难以测量使整个动力系统具有较大的不确定性.本文引入模糊软测量技术,以湿地环境中三种群生态系统为例,将软洲量技术与模糊系统结合应用于种群动力学模型,以种群数量的初始值、时间t及种群变化率为辅助参数进行种群数量的预测.运用软测量技术估计微分方程中关键参数(如竞争系数、最大捕获率、能量转换系数),建立确定的动力学微分方程模型.仿真结果显示此方法的可行性、有效性.  相似文献   

10.
彭光彬  何静媛 《运筹与管理》2022,31(10):127-132
针对研究生招生面试分组这一NP难问题,提出了一种以分组遗传算法(GGA)和基于支配强度的改进NSGA Ⅱ算法为基础的混合多目标分组遗传算法。通过基于矩阵编码的多交叉/多变异算子、次精英化的初始化种群策略以及改进的帕累托支配关系,解决了经典NSGA Ⅱ算法在该问题中的收敛速度慢、易陷入局部最优的问题。仿真实验结果表明,该方法只需进行较少代数(不超过100代)的进化,即可获得最优解集,满足了快速分组的用户偏好。  相似文献   

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