连续不宜取水天数的预测

长江引水,使更多的上海市民能饮用长江水,市有关部门根据不断增加的用水要求,拟在长兴岛附近的青草沙建立避咸蓄淡水库,水库的容量取决于用水量和该处连续不能取到含盐度较低的长江水的天数,本文利用马尔可夫模型和线性动态模型作为估计该处连续取不到合格水的最大天数估计的数学模型,论文给出了模型的推导,计算及验证的整个过程。     

基于集对分析的水库诱发地震综合风险评价模型

在水库诱发地震综合风险评价指标体系建立的基础上,根据评价指标的物理含义及其对水库诱发地震的作用情况,建立了水库诱发地震综合风险评价等级标准.用基于加速遗传算法的模糊层次分析法确定水库诱发地震综合风险评价系统中各指标和各子系统的权重,建立了基于集对分析的水库诱发地震综合风险评价模型(SPA-IRAM).SPA-IRAM在克孜尔诱发地震综合风险评价中的应用结果表明:基于集对分析的级别特征值法和属性评判法的评价结果具有一致性和互补性,联合应用可保障SPA-IRAM评价结果的可靠性;该水库诱发地震综合风险评价等级接近于2到3级、介于弱险与中险之间,需要密切监测该水库所在地区的断层活动、水库周围断裂发育和库区岩层裂隙发育的情况,进一步提高水库所在地区人均GDP和水库所在地区钢筋混凝土房屋比例,降低第一产业产值在国民生产总值中的比重和水库所在地区砖木房屋比例.SPA-IRAM综合利用了评价指标、子系统和样本与评价等级标准间联系数的丰富的结构信息和层次信息,可从指标、子系统和样本3个层次定量地分析水库诱发地震综合风险的复杂状态,在水库诱发地震风险管理中具有重要意义.     

中型水库系统运行管理随机动态决策模型的研究

本文针对中型水库系统优化调度中的难点问题，提出了相应的解决方法，由此给出简单易行的系统最优运行决策模型。     

信息技术应用的完整模型

在Ｃ．Ａ．Ｖｏｓｓ的技术应用过程模型与Ｉ．Ｊ．Ｃｈｅｎ等人的计划模型的基础上，作者通过案例分析，提出了信息技术应用的完整模型。该模型强调技术应用中的投产后阶段，并指出技术上的成功并不必然导致战略上的成功应用，而是需要投产后的不断努力，才能取得竞争优势     

基于集对分析的一种优选模型确定水库正常蓄水位

针对鲁皂水库正常蓄水位优选中各指标不相容问题,利用集对分析理论构建正常蓄水位优选模型,将参选水库正常蓄水位方案的多个指标合成为一个与标准评价集的优越度,用来描述水库正常蓄水位方案的总体综合优越性.研究结果表明,鲁皂水库正常蓄水位为1386m,采用对立与同一优选模型确定水库特征水位合理可行,模型结构简洁,计算量小.     

点过程模型中向量参数极大似然估计的渐近性质

点过程是一个应用广泛的统计模型，在医学，社会学，经济学，电子与通信科学以及软件与硬件可靠性等许多科学领域都能找到应用点过程的例子，在这些实际应用中，一般是根据问题的实际背景假定模型具有一定的参数形式，然后根据观测数据给出未知参数的极大似然估计值以推断事物发展的客观规律，我们知道，一种估计量是否收敛以及收敛速度的快慢，是决定这种估计量好坏的最为重要的标准，本文对于一般的点过程模型中向量参数极大似然估计（MLE）首先给出了一个保证其强相合的较为广泛的充分性条件，然后在进一步的条件下得到了重对数型的收敛速度。     

基于多元线性回归模型的东北地区需水量分析

多元线性回归模型在社会、经济、技术以及众多自然科学研究领域中已被广泛使用,某个地区需水量应与该地区多种因素有关,故选取东北地区的GDP、水库蓄水总量、人均可支配收入、城市绿地面积和工业用水量等5个因素,借助MATLAB软件阐明了多元线性回归模型在东北地区需水量分析中的应用.并通过皮尔森相关性检验、拟合优度检验、F检验、t检验和残差分析的方法对模型进行优化,得到了准确可靠的多元线性回归模型,此模型具有拟合程度高、简易、直观等优势,为多元线性回归模型在需水量分析中的应用提供了有力参考.     

电接触热过程有限元模型在精密机电元件中的应用

本文论述了轻电可分合接触热过程有限元模型的构造，系统论述了精密机电元件电接触热过程计算模型的构造方法，并给出了小电流继电器中的一个应用实例。     

煤业集团供应商选择的可拓方法

结合煤业集团的实际，提出了供应商选择的指标体系。应用可拓学的理论与方法，结合熵理论，建立了基于熵权的可拓综合评价模型。由于在该模型中采用了熵权，从而避免了低层次多因素权重确定的主观性；该模型以综合关联度作为评价准则，避免了评价中的主观性。通过将该模型在平顶山煤业集团供应商选择中进行应用，得出了其最佳的供应商。而且评价过程表明，该方法易于操作和使用。     

带干扰的多险种的风险模型

保险公司往往会经营多种保险，用古典风险模型及其它推广的单一险种风险模型来研究其风险经营过程存在局限性，本讨论了带干扰的多险种风险模型，模型中保费的收人和理赔都是复合泊松过程，应用鞅论的方法，得出伦德伯格不等式和破产概率公式。     

Riemannian Submersions with Discrete Spectrum

We prove some estimates on the spectrum of the Laplacian of the total space of a Riemannian submersion in terms of the spectrum of the Laplacian of the base and the geometry of the fibers. When the fibers of the submersions are compact and minimal, we prove that the spectrum of the Laplacian of the total space is discrete if and only if the spectrum of the Laplacian of the base is discrete. When the fibers are not minimal, we prove a discreteness criterion for the total space in terms of the relative growth of the mean curvature of the fibers and the mean curvature of the geodesic spheres in the base. We discuss in particular the case of warped products.     

Nonlinear Electromagnetic Delay of Electromagnetic Signals Propagating in the Magnetic Meridian Plane of Pulsars and Magnetars

We analyze the propagation of electromagnetic waves in the magnetic meridian planes of neutron stars with a strong magnetic field in the framework of the parameterized post-Maxwellian electrodynamics of the vacuum. The origin of these electromagnetic waves is the curvature emission of X-rays and gamma rays from high-energy electrons in the vicinity of the magnetic poles of neutron stars. We show that in the case of a slowly varying intensity of X-ray and gamma-ray emission, the delay of the slow normal mode of electromagnetic waves relative to the fast mode results in a shift of the time dependence of the intensity of the detected radiation with one polarization relative to that of the radiation with the orthogonal polarization. In the case of single X-ray or gamma-ray pulses, the delay effect results in the polarization of the detected pulse varying during the pulse length, the leading edge of all pulses being polarized normally to the magnetic equator plane of the neutron star. We note that the modern level of the experimental technique, in principle, allows observing the manifestations of the delay effect for signals of different polarizations.     

Seepage of a gas condensate mixture when using the geoloosening method

The problem of the seepage of a two-phase multicomponent hydrocarbon mixture for evaluating the efficiency of the use of the geoloosening method in gas condensate deposits is considered. The geoloosening method is a technology for increasing the productivity of wells, developed at the Institute of Problems in Mechanics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, and it ensures an increase in the permeability of the critical zone of a well because of directed relief of the stratum. The initiation of the geoloosening process requires the creation of deep depressions at the well bottom and, as a result, there is an accumulation of retrograde condensate in the neighbourhood of the well, which leads to a decrease in the phase permeability with respect to the gas. It is necessary to take account of the existence of these two processes, which are mutually counter directed from the point of view of the change in permeability, when this method is used for gas condensate deposits. Due to the change in the chemical composition of the mixture in the condensation process and the action of capillary forces, the gas content at each point and each instant is not the equilibrium content and, consequently, cannot be directly determined from the phase diagram of the substance. A differential scheme is used to describe the seepage of the mixture, according to which, unlike an integral scheme, the relation for the transition into the liquid phase is specified for increments and not for the pressure and volume values themselves. Numerical calculations of the steady seepage of a hydrocarbon mixture are carried out for the necessary depression levels for the conditions in the Astrakhan gas condensate deposit and the effectiveness of the use of the geoloosening method there is demonstrated.     

Prediction of the deformation properties of a polymeric composite with a granular-fibrous filler

Conclusion A variant of calculation of the characteristics of the deformation properties of a hybrid composite containing a complex disperse filler in the form of granular particles and short fibers was proposed. The effect of aggregation of the granular filler, the statistical distributions of the fibers by lengths and orientation in the material, and the anisotropy of the fibers are taken into consideration in the calculation. The statistical distribution of the orientation of the fibers is given by a function proportional to the distance from the center to the surface of a triaxial ellipsoid in the corresponding direction. The uniform random distribution of the fibers in bulk and in the plane is a special case of this distribution. The results of the analysis of the effect of the parameters of the statistical distributions of the length and orientation of short fibers on the elasticity characteristics of a composite are reported. The dependence of the creep of the composite on the ratio of the concentration of the components of the complex filler was determined, and the efficiency of partial replacement of a granular filler by a short-fiber filler to inhibit creep of the composite was demonstrated. The possibilities of predicting the long-term creep were experimentally confirmed on the example of LDPE filled with ground limestone and short glass fibers.Presented at the Sixth All-Union Conference on the Mechanics of Polymer and Composite Materials (Riga, November, 1986).Translated from Mekhanika Kompozitnykh Materialov, No. 5, pp. 898–909, September–October, 1987.     

The topology of the zero-level lines of the components of the acceleration vector in subsonic flows

The steady subsonic flow past bodies of finite dimensions, when the stream is unbounded and uniform at infinity is considered. The structure formed by the stationary points (points where both components of the acceleration vector vanishes), by the zero-level of the components of the acceleration vector emerging from them and the body past which the flow occurs is studied. It is shown that each of the above-mentioned lines must reach the surface of the body past which the flow takes place. This fact, in particular, enables one to estimate the overall number of streamlines with zero curvature emerging from the stationary points in terms of the number of zeros of the curvature of the streamlines on the body around which the flow takes place, including the branch points of a dividing streamline. With a view to refining the above mentioned number of zeros, the known solution for the neighbourhoods of the branch points of a streamline is considered and the singularity of the flow in the neighbourhoods of points of discontinuity of the curvature of the wall around which the flow occurs is investigated. In order to illustrate the above, certain properties of the flow past convex bodies are refined and a fairly broad class of so-called convex-concave bodies with zero angle of tapering of the trailing edge is constructed and considered. It is shown that, for this body, there are not more than four zeros of the curvature of the streamline and, as a consequence, there are no branch points of the isobars and isoclines in the flow field, including at infinity, an infinitely distant point is the sole stationary point and, most important of all, in the case of the flow past the given bodies the values of the circulation and the lifting force cannot vanish. The mathematical apparatus employed is based on the equations of gas dynamics constructed earlier for certain combinations of the components of the acceleration vector.     

The thermodynamically consistent equations of a thermoelastic saturated porous medium

A phenomenological model of a porous medium saturated with fluid is considered with in the framework of the hypothesis of interpenetrating continua. Assuming that there are no phase transitions, that the contribution of pulsations to the stress tensor and kinetic energy is small, and the components of the medium are in thermal equilibrium, mass, momentum and energy equations and a law of conservation of compatibility of the deformations and velocities are formulated. Using a representation of the force of interaction of the components in the form of the sum of equilibrium and dissipative components, a new form of inequality is obtained for the rate of entropy production. A definition of a thermoelastic saturated porous medium is given. The symmetry group of such a medium is considered as a set of two groups, corresponding to the symmetry of the skeleton and the fluid. It is shown that, in the class of thermoelastic porous media with an arbitrary type of symmetry of the skeleton, the saturating fluid can only be an ideal fluid, while the thermodynamic potentials and the porosity, stresses and entropies determined by them do not depend on the temperature gradient and the relative fluid velocity. It is found that the condition of incompressibility of only one of the components of the medium leads to the elimination of the porosity from the governing relations, rather than to kinematic limitations. The limitations imposed on the governing relations by the principle of thermodynamic consistency and the requirement of independence of the choice of the frame of reference are investigated. A form of the governing relations, necessary and sufficient to satisfy these principles, is obtained. It is shown that the Biot equations are one of the forms of thermodynamically consistent governing relations. A thermodynamic validation of the effective-stress tensor is given.     

An investigation on the influence of slot injection/suction on the spreading of a thin film under gravity on a rotating disk

We investigate the influence of slot injection/suction on the axisymmetric spreading of a thin film under the influence of gravity and rotation. The effects of surface tension are ignored. We allow a very thin film to precede the bulk of the fluid to overcome the singularity which arises as a consequence of applying the no-slip boundary condition. We show how the width of the slot and magnitude of the injection/suction influences the height of ridges and depth of cavities on the profile of the free surface of the thin film. Rotation increases the depth of the cavities and the height of the ridges as compared to the effects of gravity alone. The presence of rotation also results in the formation of a breaking wave.     

Identification and orbit determination of a tethered satellite system

Orbital motion of a tethered satellite system, composed of two satellites and an inextensible tether, is considered by using a perturbed two-body model. This approach is adopted so that the determination of the orbit of one of the satellites can be attempted without using observations of the motion of the other satellite in the system. The identification of the tethered condition of the system using observations of only one of the satellites in the tethered satellite system is considered. The characteristics of the `tether perturbed' motion of the observed satellite are investigated. Estimation of the state of the system using near perfect data is also illustrated. Observations of one satellite provide the entire state of the system and a parameter involving the ratio of the masses of satellites and the tether length.