基于三类模型的四大银行股票收益率预测研究

运用时间序列分析的预测方法,对四大银行的股票日对数收益率序列进行拟合与预测分析,分别构建ARMA模型、GARCH模型以及ARMA-GARCH组合模型,通过模型比较,实证分析表明:在拟合效果上,ARMA-GARCH模型的拟合优度优于ARMA模型和GARCH模型;在预测效果上,ARMA模型的预测效果最优,ARMA-GARCH模型次之.     

基于灰色微分方程的传染病预测

本文归纳总结了传染病的几类预测方法,并通过一个例子,将灰色模型和微分方程模型结合,用于传染病的预测.     

数学解题 中的模型化思考

数学模型是联系客观世界与数学的桥梁 .数学模型是用数学语言来模拟空间形式和数量关系的模型 .广义地看 ,一切数学概念、公式、理论体系、算法系统都可称为数学模型 ,如 :算术是计算盈亏的模型 ,几何是物体外形的模型等 .狭义地看 ,只有反映特定问题的数学结构才称为数学模型 ,如一次函数是匀速直线运动的模型 ,不定方程是鸡兔同笼问题的模型等 .数学模型方法是针对要解决的问题来构造相应的数学模型、再通过对数学模型的研究去解决实际问题的一种数学方法 .数学模型方法在解题中的基本步骤是 :( 1 )从要解决的问题中恰当构建相应的数学模…     

2011年研究生建模竞赛B题的评阅综述

本题从一项科研项目中提炼、并结合目前成为关注热点的隐身技术而设计,侧重于数学建模.结合题中的2个问题,可以抽象出3个平时比较少见的数学模型:几何模型,反射投影模型和积分方程模型.在竞赛中,前2个模型都有部分同学正确地得出,可惜的是,问题2所要求的积分方程模型,在近500份答卷,却无人得出,甚为遗憾.问题2属于一个需要同时确定数个彼此关联影响的函数的问题,处理这样问题的基本方法是建立以这些函数为变量的方程组,在这里由于确定相互影响的定量关系必须用积分,所以最终得出的是一个积分方程组.微分积分是大学数学中最基本最重要的概念和方法,由此不难看出,我们的基础教育中的弊病与问题,这需要引起有识之士们的反思.     

基于图方法的自回归和双线性时间序列模型系数的检验

自回归和双线性时间序列模型被表示为时间序列链图模型.在此基础上, 证明了自回归和双线性模型的系数为其他时间序列分量给定的条件下的条件相关系数.然后提出基于图的检验方法来检验自回归和双线性模型系数的显著性, 模拟结果表明此方法在水平和功效方面表现很好.     

Verhulst模型、微分模型及时滞模型的建模与经济预测应用

经济预测中常常会遇到外生变量的确定问题，由于累积误差和传递误差的存在而很困难，因而需要其它方法，为此我们引入Ｖｅｒｈｕｌｓｔ模型来描述经济过程的动态特征，并用阶数不超过３的微分模型发展了这一思想以便描述，同时具有趋势变动和周期性扰动的数据结构，这是一种非常普遍的情形．然后我们证明了微分模型与时滞模型是等价的，而后者的参数估计极为简单．     

传染病增长中的几个数学模型

某国家某种传染病的发病数呈上升趋势 ,统计近四年这种病的新发病人数如下表所示 ,如果不加控制 ,将仍按这个趋势发展下去 .请预测从 2 0 0 3年初到 2 0 0 6年底的四年里 ,该国家该传染病的新发病总人数 .年　份 19992 0 0 0 2 0 0 12 0 0 2新发病人数 2 4 0 0 2 4 912 5 86 2 6 84分析　这是对一份统计资料进行分析 ,把握其规律建立合理的数学模型 ,对其进行定量分析是解决问题的关键 .思路 1　建立传染病增长率模型由上表数据可知 ,1999～ 2 0 0 0年该病的增长率为 2 4 91- 2 4 0 02 4 0 0 3.792 .同理可得 ,2 0 0 0～ 2 0 0 1年 ,2 0 …     

求解代数问题的常用解析几何模型

解题几何是数形结合的典型范例 ,它是通过坐标系的建立 ,将几何问题转化为代数问题来处理 ,反过来 ,很多代数问题利用解析几何理论 ,可转化为几何问题来处理 .本文结合例题介绍几种常用的解析几何模型 ,供学习时参考 .1　距离模型例 1　已知ｘ ,ｙ∈Ｒ ,且ｘ2 ｙ2 =2 ,求ｘ2 ｙ2 6ｘ 2 ｙ 10的最大值和最小值 .图 1　例 1图解　因ｘ2 ｙ2 6ｘ 2ｙ 10 =(ｘ 3) 2 (ｙ 1) 2 表示圆ｘ2 ｙ2 =2上的动点Ｐ (ｘ ,ｙ)到定点Ｑ( - 3,- 1)的距离的平方 .由图 1可知 ,连结ＯＱ交圆于两点Ｐ1 ,Ｐ2 ,则所求式子的最大值为 |ＱＰ2 | …     

Asymptotic solution for EI Nino-southern oscillation of nonlinear model

A class of nonlinear coupled system for El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) model is considered.Using the asymptotic theory and method of variational iteration,the asymptotic expansion of the solution for ENSO models is obtained.     

基于参数模型的EVaR风险度量计算方法及实证研究

针对EVaR(Expectile-based Value at Risk)风险度量提出了基于GARCH类和SV波动率模型的EVaR风险度量计算方法,即EVaR计算的参数模型方法.并基于模拟学生t分布时间序列数据,给出EVaR样本外预测的失败率检验方法:Kupiec失败率检验和动态分位数(DQ)检验法.与采用CARE(Conditional Autoregressive Expectile)模型的EVaR计算方法进行了对比研究,结果表明基于GARCH类模型和SV模型相对于基于CARE模型有更优的EVaR预测效果.选取2004年1月5日到2009年12月30日的国内外五个股票市场指数数据,针对日对数收益率进行了EVaR风险度量的实证研究,得出在金融危机期间,基于参数模型的EVaR预测要比基于CARE模型的EVaR预测更接近市场实际风险.     

Estimates of stability of characterization of additive types of distributions

An estimate of stability of characterization of distribution types is obtained for the case of additive types. Under some conditions, the estimate has the order ε^1/3L(ε), where L(ε) is a slowly varying function. Proceedings of the Seminar on Stability Problems for Stochastic Models, Moscow, Russia, 1996, Part I.     

一类完全正则半群簇子簇格的性质

本文研究了完全正则半群簇的子簇格［Ｖ＋∩ＰＶ，Ｖ＋∩ＰＶ］的某些格运算性质，我们证明了簇Ｖ＋∩ＰＶ可分解为Ｖ与Ｖ＋∩ＰＶ的并；对任意完全正则半群簇Ｗ，有Ｗ∩（Ｖ∨Ｖ＋∩ＰＶ）＝（Ｗ∩Ｖ）∨（Ｗ∩Ｖ＋∩ＰＶ）．特别地，我们得到了等式Ｖ＋∩ＰＶ＝Ｖ成立的若干条件．     

Study of the blow-up of solutions of systems of equations of hydrodynamic type

Mathematical Notes - We study the initial boundary-value problem for three-dimensional systems of equations of pseudoparabolic type. The system is similar to the Oskolkov system, but differs from...     

Characterization of types of asymptotic discernibility of families of hypotheses

We give a characterization of the types of asymptotic discernibility of families of hypotheses in the case of hypothetical measures that are not, in general, mutually absolutely continuous. The case when the logarithm of the likelihood ratio admits an asymptotic expansion of the type of an expansion with local asymptotic normality is examined in detail. Examples are studied.Translated fromTeoriya Sluchainykh Protsessov, Vol. 15, pp. 64–71, 1987.     

Distribution of types of symmetry of tensors of high degree

The asymptotic distribution of tensors of degree N in symmetry types is studied in this paper.Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov Leningradskogo Otdeleniya Matematicheskogo Instituta im. V. A. Steklova AN SSSR, Vol. 155, pp. 181–186, 1986.     

Preservation of equivalence of derivations under reduction of depth of formulas

In this paper we consider derivations in the (&, )-fragment of the intuitionistic propositional calculus. As is known, replacement of any occurrence of a formula [F] in a sequent S by an occurrence of the formula [p], where p is a new propositional variable, with the simultaneous addition to the antecedent of the formula F p or p F depending on the sign of the occurrence of F in S, leaves the derivability unchanged. We give a proof of the fact that the natural extension of this transformation to derivations preserves the relation of equivalence of derivations, i.e., transformed derivations are equivalent if and only if the originals are equivalent. (Derivations are considered equivalent if certain of their normal forms coincide, or, what is the same, if their deductive terms coincide.) It is proved that by the iteration of this transformation, each derivation of an arbitrary sequent S can be transformed into a derivation of a sequent S, depending only on S, whose succedent is a variable, and in the antecedent there occur only formulas of the form a,a & b, a b,,(a b) c, a & b c, a (b & c), wherea, b, c are variables. Here if S is balanced, then S is also balanced. (A sequent is called balanced if each variable occurs in it no more than twice.) The familiar correspondence between certain concepts of the theory of categories and concepts of the theory of proofs allows one to assert that there has been constructed a univalent functor, mapping a free Cartesian closed category into itself.Translated from Zapiski Nauchnykh Seminarov Leningradskogo Otdeleniya Matematicheskogo Instituta im. V. A. Steklova AN SSSR, Vol. 88, pp. 197–207, 1979.     

Estimate of growth of Lebesgue functions of linear methods of summation

Sufficient conditions are obtained in terms of matrix elements for the boundedness of Lebesgue functions of linear methods of summation of expansions in orthogonal systems of polynomial type.Translated from Matematicheskie Zametki, Vol. 6, No. 3, pp. 277–286, September, 1969.