更新理论推理过程及其应用

更新过程和马尔可夫更新过程中均有相对应的更新方程,实际问题中有许多变量都满足更新方程.但是在运用更新方程时,对于一些感兴趣的变量很难直接套用更新方程,这就使更新方程在实际问题的应用有许多困难.针对这个问题,总结归纳了应用更新方程的更新理论推理过程,给出了具体的推理方法和步骤,并举例进行了说明.     

On Numerical Solution of the Markov Renewal Equation: Tight Upper and Lower Kernel Bounds

We develop tight bounds and a fast parallel algorithm to compute the Markov renewal kernel. Knowledge of the kernel allows us to solve Markov renewal equations numerically to study non-steady state behavior in a finite state Markov renewal process. Computational error and numerical stability for computing the bounds in parallel are discussed using well-known results from numerical analysis. We use our algorithm and computed bounds to study the expected number of departures as a function of time for a two node overflow queueing network.     

A second-order approximation for the variance of a renewal reward process

Let {C(t), t ? 0} be a renewal reward process. We obtain the approximation Var C(t) = ct + d + o(1), and explicitly identify c and d.     

Large Deviations for Random Sums on Some Kind of Heavy-tailed Classes in Risk Models

This paper is a further investigation into the large deviations for random sums of heavy-tailed,we extended and improved some results in ref. [1] and [2]. These results can applied to some questions in Insurance and Finance.     

复合更新风险模型下的破产概率

讨论了具有较一般意义的复合更新风险模型下的破产概率,在假定索赔分布属于重尾分布族的前提下,得到了我们所渴望的破产概率的尾等价形式.这一结果恰与经典的Cram啨r-Lundberg模型下的结论相一致.     

更新跳跃-扩散过程下的复合期权定价

假设关于标的股票的重大信息到达服从更新过程,并假设跳跃高度服从对数正态分布,利用期权定价的鞅方法,推导得到了股票价格服从更新跳跃-扩散过程的欧式期权以及复合期权的定价公式.     

关于马尔可夫更新测度的一个局部等价式

考虑了逗留时间服从一类次指数分布的马尔可夫更新过程,延伸了文[3]的结果,得到了马尔可夫更新测度的一个局部等价式.     

一可修系统的最优检测更新模型

本文研究了由一个部件和一个修理工组成的检测更新模型。部件不能“修复如新”。其寿命和修理时间均服从一般分布。在假设最大的修理次数为K—1的条件下,证明了最优检测时间T的存在,此时模型取得最大经济效益。     

Equivalent conditions of local asymptotics for the solutions of defective renewal equations, with applications

The paper obtains some equivalent conditions of local asymptotics for the solutions of defective renewal equations in the heavy-tailed case. As applications, the paper gives a different proof of a classical result about the local distribution of the supremum of a random walk. These results are also applied in examples involving the renewal function for terminating renewal processes and the age-dependent branching processes.     

风险模型中重尾随机变量和的若干大偏差结果

进一步研究随机变量部分和与随机和的大偏差,其中S(n)=∑ni=1Xi,S(t)=∑N(t)i=1Xi(t>0).{Xn,n≥1}是一个独立同分布的随机变量(未必是非负的)序列具有共同的分布F(定义于R上)和有限期望μ=EX1.{N(t),t≥0}是一个非负的整数值的随机变量的更新计数过程且与{Xn,n≥1}相互独立.本文在假定F∈C条件下,进一步推广并改进了由Klüppelberg等和Kaiw等人给出的一些大偏差结果.这些结果可应用到某些金融保险方面的一些特定的问题中去.