Evaluating Individual Market Power in Electricity Markets via Agent-Based Simulation

We use agent-based simulation in a coordination game to analyse the possibility of market power abuse in a competitive electricity market. The context of this was a real application to the England and Wales electricity market as part of a Competition Commission Inquiry into whether two particular generators could profitably influence wholesale prices. The research contributions of this paper are both in the areas of market power and market design policy issues for electricity markets, and in the methodological use of large industry-wide evolutionary simulation models.     

Optimization techniques for Available Transfer Capability (ATC) and market calculations

The recent movement towards an open, competitive market environmentintroduced new optimization problems such as market clearingmechanism, bidding decision and Available Transfer Capability(ATC) calculation. These optimization problems are characterizedby the complexity of power systems and the uncertainties inthe electricity market. Accurate evaluation of the transfercapability of a transmission system is required to maximizethe utilization of the existing transmission systems in a competitivemarket environment. The transfer capability of the transmissionnetworks can be limited by various system constraints such asthermal, voltage and stability limits. The ability to incorporatesuch limits into the optimization problem is a challenge inthe ATC calculation from an engineering point of view. In thecompetitive market environment, a power supplier needs to findan optimal strategy that maximizes its own profits under variousuncertainties such as electricity prices and load. On the otherhand, an efficient market clearing mechanism is needed to increasethe social welfare, i.e. the sum of the consumers’ andproducers’ surplus. The need to maximize the social welfaresubject to system operational constraints is also a major challengefrom a societal point of view. This paper presents new optimizationtechniques motivated by the competitive electricity market environment.Numerical simulation results are presented to demonstrate theperformance of the proposed optimization techniques.     

Unit commitment in electricity pool markets

We consider an electricity generator making offers of energy into an electricity pool market over a horizon of several trading periods (typically a single trading day). The generator runs a set of generating units with given start-up costs, shut-down costs and operating ranges. At the start of each trading period the generator must submit to the pool system operator a new supply curve defining quantities of offered energy and the prices at which it wants these dispatched. The amount of dispatch depends on the supply curve offered along with the offers of the other generators and market demand, both of which are random, but do not change in response to the actions of the generator we consider. After dispatch the generator determines which units to run in the current trading period to meet the dispatch. The generator seeks a supply function that maximizes its expected profit. We describe an optimization procedure based on dynamic programming that can be used to construct optimal offers in successive time periods over a fixed planning horizon.     

输电线路阻塞费用的管理

运用多元回归分析法求出了线路有功潮流关于发电机组出力的近似表达式,同时讨论了阻塞费用的计算问题,而后本文对安全解决线路阻塞问题进行了实例研究,把实际问题处理成有约束非线性优化问题,并得到了满意的结果.     

Models for capacity and electricity market design

The paper employs Operations Research methods for analysis of electricity and capacity markets. We provide two algorithms that determine the optimal capacity structure with account of fixed and variable costs. The first one relates to the case where there are several capacity types, and for each type the capacity constraint is not binding. The second algorithm is applicable when electricity is produced by standard small generators with the same capacity and different costs. Then we study two typical architectures of the market and examine their Nash equilibria. We consider a uniform price supply function auction in the electricity market. For pay-as-bid and uniform price versions of the capacity market design, we compare the equilibrium outcomes with the optimal capacity structure. The paper shows that the market equilibrium corresponds to the optimal capacity structure under conditions of pure competition, full rationality, and completely informed agents in the market. However, under more realistic assumptions, selection of the optimal structure is unlikely. Finally we provide the auction design that realizes such selection of capacities and does not require any additional information of each producer besides his own production costs. We establish sufficient conditions for perfect competition in the market.     

Agent-based analysis of technological diversification and specialization in electricity markets

This paper develops a model-based analysis of technological market structure evolution in electricity markets. This is done through the development of a power plant trading game that, via computational learning, simulates how players coordinate their behaviour in buying and selling power generation assets. In particular, we look at the question of how market performance depends upon the different technological types of plant owned by the generators, and whether, through the strategic adaptation of their power plant portfolios, there is a tendency for the market to evolve into concentrations of specialized or diversified companies.     

Equilibrium prices supported by dual price functions in markets with non-convexities

The issue of finding market clearing prices in markets with non-convexities has had a renewed interest due to the deregulation of the electricity sector. In the day-ahead electricity market, equilibrium prices are calculated based on bids from generators and consumers. In most of the existing markets, several generation technologies are present, some of which have considerable non-convexities, such as capacity limitations and large start-up costs. In this paper we present equilibrium prices composed of a commodity price and an uplift charge. The prices are based on the generation of a separating valid inequality that supports the optimal resource allocation. In the case when the sub-problem generated as the integer variables are held fixed to their optimal values possess the integrality property, the generated prices are also supported by non-linear price functions that are the basis for integer programming duality.     

Australian electricity market and price volatility

Australian Electricity Market has experienced high price volatility since the deregulation in early 1990s. In this exploratory and preliminary analysis of 2010 data from South Australian electricity market we identify and exhibit a number of phenomena which, arguably, contribute to (A) high cost of electricity supply to consumers and (B) volatility in spot prices. These phenomena include: (i) Distinct bidding patterns of some generators occurring in trading intervals corresponding to periods of low, medium and high spot prices, (ii) Low correlation between electricity demand and spot prices on days when spot price spikes are observed, (iii) Failure of the lottery model and associated Markowitz-type optimisation approaches to adequately explain the shifting structure of generators’ bids and (iv) Unexpectedly high contribution to the consumers costs and risks from the relatively small number of trading intervals where spot price spikes were observed.     

可再生能源价格政策在寡头竞争市场中的比较

在考虑可再生能源发电间歇性和电力企业两阶段决策过程的前提下,建立了度电补贴和配额制政策下的电力市场寡头垄断竞争模型并进行了分析。以以色列电力市场的数据进行数值实验,分析了电力企业数量、补贴价格、可再生能源电力配额、投资费用等关键因素对发电容量投资的影响。考虑到政策的福利效应,比较了度电补贴和配额制政策下电力价格、消费者剩余和社会福利的差异。