考虑占位决策的围堵嫌犯模型

研究了2011年中国大学生数学建模竞赛B题的突发事件中交巡警对在逃嫌犯的围堵问题。不同于对该问题的以往的研究,本文考虑了交巡警在包围圈中可以占据某些路口,使得嫌犯不能通过这些被交巡警占据的路口,从而为形成包围圈的交巡警赢得更多时间。利用两篇相关文献的关于点截集判断的结论和考虑占位决策的建模方法,以不同的目标函数建立了考虑占位决策的围堵嫌犯问题的三个混合0-1非线性整数规划模型。通过选取部分线性约束和目标函数一起组合成混合0-1线性整数规划模型,设计了基于混合0-1线性整数规划方法的算法,并给出了算例。     

警车配置及巡逻方案研究

以警车的配置与巡逻方案为研究对象,建立了一套警车巡逻模型,并提出巡逻效果显著度及隐藏性的评价标准,分别针对警车初始位置配置与巡逻方案的制定,提出警车配置优化选址的贪婪算法与基于多Agent的警车巡逻方案设计方法,给出了不同情景下的配置及巡逻方案:①在只考虑警车选址配置的情况下,配置19辆警车可以使全市路网警车覆盖率达到92.8%;②在顾及巡逻效果显著性与隐藏性的情况下,配置25辆警车使全市路网在整个巡逻过程中平均警车覆盖率达到90.9%;③在配置10辆警车的情况下,使得全市路网在整个巡逻过程中平均警车覆盖率达到61.5%.     

Applying the flow-capturing location-allocation model to an authentic network: Edmonton, Canada

Traditional location-allocation models aim to locate network facilities to optimally serve demand expressed as weights at nodes. For some types of facilities demand is not expressed at nodes, but as passing network traffic. The flow-capturing location-allocation model responds to this type of demand and seeks to maximize one-time exposure of such traffic to facilities. This new model has previously been investigated only with small and contrived problems. In this paper, we apply the flow-capturing location-allocation model to morning-peak traffic in Edmonton, Canada. We explore the effectiveness of exact, vertex substitution, and greedy solution procedures; the first two are computationally demanding, the greedy is very efficient and extremely robust. We hypothesize that the greedy algorithm's robustness is enhanced by the structured flow present in an authentic urban road network. The flow-capturing model was derived to overcome flow cannibalization, wasteful redundant flow-capturing; we demonstrate that this is an important consideration in an authentic network. We conclude that real-world testing is an important aspect of location model development.     

Police patrol policies on motorways with unequal patrol lengths

On motorways, and other roads with limited access, emergencies arise which require the presence of police, ambulance, rescue services and breakdown trucks. Of these, only the police make regular patrols of the road; other emergency vehicles are static. The regular police patrols arise because their role is to satisfy multiple objectives, some of which depend on being seen to be mobile. For responding to emergencies these patrols need to be coordinated so that assistance can be supplied as quickly as possible. It is common practice to divide a long motorway into separate stretches of roadway, and assign one vehicle to each. Published analysis of the problem of finding an optimal assignment of patrols to roadway has assumed that these stretches are equal in length. This paper extends earlier work to examine the consequences of having unequal lengths of road. It considers measures of effectiveness and their sensitivity to the choice of divisions of the roadway.     

Queueing models for police-fire merger analysis

Cities with under 100,000 in population expend a significant portion of their budgets on emergency services. One option that a number of these cities have considered for improving service and cutting costs is training personnel to handle both police and fire roles. In this paper we describe a hierarchy of models that we have used to assess the performance viability of a merger as well as to design specific deployment plans. The modeling environment is more complex than a traditional police or fire system. We need to model the response pattern of four or more patrol units along with the simultaneous dispatch of fire equipment from one or more fire stations. The major contribution of the paper is the manner in which a series of models is linked together to forecast a wide range of performance measures under differing dispatch assumptions. We use a queueing model of police patrol to calculate steady state probabilities and expected delays without preemption. We then model two types of preemptive dispatch strategies utilized in responding initially to a major fire by superimposing a binomial distribution on the basic queueing model. There is also a travel time simulation model to calculate conditional expected response time statistics. The queueing models and the travel time simulation are then combined to estimate unconditional expected values. Lastly, we describe a simulation model used to address transient performance issues that are of concern during a major fire.     

110警车配置及确定巡逻方案的问题

主要讨论社会安全系统中警车的优化配置及巡逻方案的合理安排问题.首先对道路和重点区域进行合理离散化,再根据离散化后得到的新地图计算出各个离散道路点的邻域,然后对静态过程使用模拟退火算法得到静态优化值,最后根据不同的目标和需求,通过对动态过程进行仿真,从而得到最后满足要求的动态优化值,并按照问题要求给出所需的评价值和合理的警车巡逻方案.该模型原理清晰易懂,采用启发式算法,计算简单,通用性强,优化性能显著,稳定性好.     

Scalar conservation laws with moving constraints arising in traffic flow modeling: An existence result

We consider a strongly coupled PDE–ODE system that describes the influence of a slow and large vehicle on road traffic. The model consists of a scalar conservation law accounting for the main traffic evolution, while the trajectory of the slower vehicle is given by an ODE depending on the downstream traffic density. The moving constraint is expressed by an inequality on the flux, which models the bottleneck created in the road by the presence of the slower vehicle. We prove the existence of solutions to the Cauchy problem for initial data of bounded variation.     

A note on the square root law for urban police travel times

The classical Square Root Law formula for emergency travel times consists of one observable component, the density of patrol coverage, and one unknown component that must be estimated empirically, the effective travel speed. The effective travel speed is typically assumed to be an empirical constant. We test whether this simplifying assumption is justified empirically. We propose a modern machine-learning approach and a Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression to incorporate into a travel speed model various exogenous factors such as call type, incident location, weather conditions and traffic congestion. The value of the proposed analytical approach and some practical implications are demonstrated using operational data from a large urban police jurisdiction based in British Columbia, Canada. Although the analysis is framed within the context of urban emergency police operations, the proposed approach has the potential to be useful for other emergency services or roving business units that deal with unscheduled service calls.     

Optimizing State Patrol Manpower Allocation

One of the most difficult tasks of state highway patrol administrators is allocation of manpower; i.e. determining the most effective level of operational manpower for patrol tasks. Typically, administrators resolve the allocation problem by relying on prior statistical data and by employing subjective analysis. In general, only limited systematic analyses have been applied to the problem. This paper presents an integer goal programming model for allocating highway patrolmen to road segments within a patrol region. The model is demonstrated via a case example of the Nebraska State Patrol. The results of the model are valuable to the patrol administrator for considering departmental goals and priority structure, in addition to available historical data, in the assignment of state patrol manpower.     

基于点截集的围堵嫌犯模型

研究了在突发事件中交巡警对在逃嫌犯的围堵问题, 该问题为2011年全国大学生数学建模竞赛B题的一部分。接到报警后,交巡警服务平台的警力需要指派到路网路口以堵截嫌犯。将该问题转化为阻止嫌犯逃到特定点集的问题;并分析了怎样判断被选为围堵点的点集对一个指定点形成包围的问题。推广了点截集的概念,给出了判断点集是否为点截集和紧点截集的优化模型。然后将判断是否为点截集的模型转换为约束集合, 用于建立围堵嫌犯模型,以四个不同的优化标准分别建立了围堵问题的0-1整数规划模型。并给出了部分模型的Lingo算例。     

Models for Allocating Police Preventive Patrol Effort

This paper develops models that maximize the expected number of occasions per unit of time that a police patrol unit enters a street segment during the time that a crime is visible. Constraints are added that insure a minimum patrol coverage to all streets. The successive visits from street-to-street form a Markov chain. The solution that maximizes the objective function gives a stochastic decision rule which is used with Monte Carlo techniques to generate a random patrol schedule. The problem is posed with one car and several cars patrolling the same region.     

Beat patrolling in urban areas A case study

Urban police patrol work has been analysed in the present paper. Working on the crime-rate, as reported by the police department, a plan has been worked out to ensure an effective police patrol in a given locality. This locality is predominantly a “business/marketing area”. Many problems connected with beat patrol like type of beat, route numbers, beat-ranking and others have been discussed. The analysis will help the police station to understand the beat patrol problem. Alternative beat routes have been suggested, together with deployment. Beat ranking may help in assessing the vulnerability of an area and as such proper steps may be taken in advance to prevent the occurrence of the crime. It is expected that patrolling will be more effective and useful after the implementation of this study.     

城市道路交通信号实时优化控制

通过分析实际道路交通状况,在合理假设的基础上,建立了孤立十字、丁字交叉路口、三个交叉路口线状区域以及六个交叉路口网络状区域的交通信号实时配时数学模型,利用Matlab产生满足泊松分布的车流量实时序列,按照优化目标进行了算法的设计和编程,得到了相应的数值结果,并对优化结果进行了讨论.     

Fuzzy resource management analysis

Traditionally, the efficient and productive delivery of services is a major goal of public institutions. This is especially true in the law enforcement industry. Here, the management of a set of dynamic resources (police patrol personnel) is central to the delivery of services. In the past there have been two major perspectives towards the management of low enforcement resources: first, ignoring all patterns in demands resources are distributed equally across time and space. Second, resources are deployed according to the proportionate distribution of demands. In both of these models the resources are manipulated or controlled according to an algorithm derived independently from demand patterns. These models are highly vulnerable to shifts in demand patterns and can be strategically inefficient and tactically unstable. In this paper a new algorithmic process is defined for the strategic and tactical evaluation of resource needs for police patrolling which combines deployment and control strategies, and simulates combinations of the strategies for comparative analysis. It was discovered that the degree of reliance upon the analysis of future resource usage and the accuracy of the projection of the future demands had a significant impact on the performance of the methodologies studied. This process can be used to draw general conclusions about patrolling systems.     

Modelling Rural Police Patrol

Police patrol has been modelled extensively in the urban environment, but these urban models cannot usually be applied to rural settings. The length of travel times and the nature of calls for service in rural, wide-area, low-population regions demand special consideration. In this paper, we develop a Markov model that explicitly incorporates travel times and priority calls to analyse police patrol policies in rural areas. Results of the model using data from Washtenaw County, Michigan, USA, are given to show its utility.     

A Method for Finding the Shortest Route Through a Road Network

When a new road is being planned it is necessary to assess how much traffic will be diverted to it from various parts of the existing road network. This allocation of traffic has usually been based on a comparison of journey times or journey costs on alternative routes, and has depended on the selection, by trial and error, of the cheapest route through the network.A method is described which determines the shortest or cheapest routes between points on the network and which can readily be extended to show how traffic between the points is distributed and to assess the total cost of vehicle operation on the network.The procedure is quite systematic and independent of the manner in which journey costs are derived, and it could be carried out on an electronic computer with considerable saving in time. It can be applied to any transportation or communication problem that involves finding the most economical routes through a network.     

城市交通投资结构调整与交通需求互动优化模型研究

城市交通投资结构研究有助于了解交通供给能力特征,缓解城市交通拥堵状况.北京市在过去的十几年来大量的交通资金投入到道路建设中,但并没有从根本上扭转日益突出的交通供需矛盾状况.从交通投资与交通需求的关系出发,探讨投资方向和投资力度对交通供需结构的影响.给出交通投资结构阶段统计特征、分析了北京市"七五"至"十五"时期交通投资系统与交通需求、交通供给和社会经济系统关系.应用多目标优化方法,并运用M atlab软件计算不同交通结构情境下的交通投资取向、结构、管理上提出建议.     

110警车配置及巡逻方案

针对110警车调度问题,引入了图论中的最短路算法以及计算几何的相关理论,建立了车辆调配模型、巡逻路线模型以及基于模糊数学的评价指标模型.另外,用C++编写了一个可视化的软件,不仅实现了手动描点,自动求出覆盖线段集合的功能,同时利用计算机模拟警车的巡逻路线,最后通过计算机检验得到结果,其合理性和实用性都令人满意.针对问题一,通过人机结合,配置17辆警车就能实现D1的目标,很好地兼顾了警车巡逻的运行成本,减少公安部门车辆和人员等的投入.针对问题二,采用模糊数学相关理论使评价指标实现了从定性到定量的转变.针对问题三和六,在D1的基础上,兼顾了巡逻效果的显著性,采用最少被巡逻道路优先的贪心算法建立了动态巡逻模型,得到了合理的巡逻方案.在此方案中,我们动用了30辆警车完成了问题一的目标.另外还额外考虑了案发事件概率不均匀分布的情况,建立了改进模型.针对问题四,在完成问题三指标的基础上,为了尽可能提高巡逻车辆的隐蔽性和增强巡逻效果,采用轮盘赌算法来引入随机性.针对问题五,采用最远距离道路优先贪心策略,使模型尽可能满足条件D1,D2.针对问题七,提出了一些额外因素及其解决方案,进一步完善了模型,使模型更贴近现实.     

基于模糊理论的交通安全评价方法的研究

道路交通安全系统的内部结构极为复杂,影响因素众多,各因素都具有模糊性.在综合研究分析国内外道路交通安全评价方法的基础上,对以往发生的道路交通事故资料进行分析,利用模糊评价理论,选取合理评价指标,建立了基于模糊的道路交通安全评价模型,对道路交通的安全性进行合理评价.     

A general model of road traffic accidents

A general model that relates road traffic accidents to the number of vehicles involved, and the number of primary causes of such accidents, is presented. The model considers traffic accidents as failures of a road traffic network system to meet social and economic constraints, and therefore as a measure of the unreliability of such a system. The equations apply to accidents in the real time domain as well as to mean values per unit of vehicle exposure time or vehicle distance. They also apply to single vehicles and drivers, groups of drivers and fleets of vehicles, and the entire vehicle and driving population. They can be used for sections of a network or for a whole network.The equations used have a large number of terms, hence bias errors are common in road accident investigations.