Simultaneous confidence band and hypothesis test in generalised varying-coefficient models

Generalised varying-coefficient models (GVC) are very important models. There are a considerable number of literature addressing these models. However, most of the existing literature are devoted to the estimation procedure. In this paper, we systematically investigate the statistical inference for GVC, which includes confidence band as well as hypothesis test. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the maximum discrepancy between the estimated functional coefficient and the true functional coefficient. We compare different approaches for the construction of confidence band and hypothesis test. Finally, the proposed statistical inference methods are used to analyse the data from China about contraceptive use there, which leads to some interesting findings.     

Testing independence in nonparametric regression

We propose a new test for independence of error and covariate in a nonparametric regression model. The test statistic is based on a kernel estimator for the L₂-distance between the conditional distribution and the unconditional distribution of the covariates. In contrast to tests so far available in literature, the test can be applied in the important case of multivariate covariates. It can also be adjusted for models with heteroscedastic variance. Asymptotic normality of the test statistic is shown. Simulation results and a real data example are presented.     

Estimating the error distribution in nonparametric multiple regression with applications to model testing

In this paper we consider the estimation of the error distribution in a heteroscedastic nonparametric regression model with multivariate covariates. As estimator we consider the empirical distribution function of residuals, which are obtained from multivariate local polynomial fits of the regression and variance functions, respectively. Weak convergence of the empirical residual process to a Gaussian process is proved. We also consider various applications for testing model assumptions in nonparametric multiple regression. The model tests obtained are able to detect local alternatives that converge to zero at an n^−1/2-rate, independent of the covariate dimension. We consider in detail a test for additivity of the regression function.     

Structural test in regression on functional variables

Many papers deal with structural testing procedures in multivariate regression. More recently, various estimators have been proposed for regression models involving functional explanatory variables. Thanks to these new estimators, we propose a theoretical framework for structural testing procedures adapted to functional regression. The procedures introduced in this paper are innovative and make the link between former works on functional regression and others on structural testing procedures in multivariate regression. We prove asymptotic properties of the level and the power of our procedures under general assumptions that cover a large scope of possible applications: tests for no effect, linearity, dimension reduction, …     

Second-order accuracy of depth-based bootstrap confidence regions

We consider the problem of setting bootstrap confidence regions for multivariate parameters based on data depth functions. We prove, under mild regularity conditions, that depth-based bootstrap confidence regions are second-order accurate in the sense that their coverage error is of order n⁻¹, given a random sample of size n. The results hold in general for depth functions of types A and D, which cover as special cases the Tukey depth, the majority depth, and the simplicial depth. A simulation study is also provided to investigate empirically the bootstrap confidence regions constructed using these three depth functions.     

Simple and efficient improvements of multivariate local linear regression

This paper studies improvements of multivariate local linear regression. Two intuitively appealing variance reduction techniques are proposed. They both yield estimators that retain the same asymptotic conditional bias as the multivariate local linear estimator and have smaller asymptotic conditional variances. The estimators are further examined in aspects of bandwidth selection, asymptotic relative efficiency and implementation. Their asymptotic relative efficiencies with respect to the multivariate local linear estimator are very attractive and increase exponentially as the number of covariates increases. Data-driven bandwidth selection procedures for the new estimators are straightforward given those for local linear regression. Since the proposed estimators each has a simple form, implementation is easy and requires much less or about the same amount of effort. In addition, boundary corrections are automatic as in the usual multivariate local linear regression.     

Robust estimation in a nonlinear cointegration model

This paper considers the nonparametric M-estimator in a nonlinear cointegration type model. The local time density argument, which was developed by Phillips and Park (1998) [6] and Wang and Phillips (2009) [9], is applied to establish the asymptotic theory for the nonparametric M-estimator. The weak consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are established under mild conditions. Meanwhile, the asymptotic distribution of the local least squares estimator and the local least absolute distance estimator can be obtained as applications of our main results. Furthermore, an iterated procedure for obtaining the nonparametric M-estimator and a cross-validation bandwidth selection method are discussed, and some numerical examples are provided to show that the proposed methods perform well in the finite sample case.     

Frontier estimation via kernel regression on high power-transformed data

We present a new method for estimating the frontier of a multidimensional sample. The estimator is based on a kernel regression on the power-transformed data. We assume that the exponent of the transformation goes to infinity while the bandwidth of the kernel goes to zero. We give conditions on these two parameters to obtain complete convergence and asymptotic normality. The good performance of the estimator is illustrated on some finite sample situations.     

Local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation for Pareto-type distributions

We discuss the estimation of the tail index of a heavy-tailed distribution when covariate information is available. The approach followed here is based on the technique of local polynomial maximum likelihood estimation. The generalized Pareto distribution is fitted locally to exceedances over a high specified threshold. The method provides nonparametric estimates of the parameter functions and their derivatives up to the degree of the chosen polynomial. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators will be proven under suitable regularity conditions. This approach is motivated by the fact that in some applications the threshold should be allowed to change with the covariates due to significant effects on scale and location of the conditional distributions. Using the asymptotic results we are able to derive an expression for the asymptotic mean squared error, which can be used to guide the selection of the bandwidth and the threshold. The applicability of the method will be demonstrated with a few practical examples.     

Nonparametric and semiparametric optimal transformations of markers

The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of a likelihood-ratio function has been shown to be the highest among all transformations of continuous markers. For any sampling scheme with the same likelihoods, the induced conditional probability is derived to have the same ROC curve and is found to be more useful for inference purposes. To compromise the difficult task of high-dimensionality in fully nonparametric models and the risk of model misspecification in fully parametric ones, an appealing single-index model is also adopted in our optimization problem. Based on a nonparametric estimator of the area under the ROC curve (AUC), we develop its related inferences and provide some simple and easily checked conditions for the validity of asymptotic results. Since the optimal marker is estimated by using a semiparametric or nonparametric model, conventional theoretical approaches might be inappropriate to some circumstances. The applicability of our procedures are further demonstrated through extensive numerical experiments and data from the studies of Pima-Indian diabetes and liver disorders.     

Bandwidth selection for a data sharpening estimator in nonparametric regression

This paper is concerned with data-based selection of the bandwidth for a data sharpening estimator in nonparametric regression. Two kinds of bandwidths are considered: a bandwidth vector which has a different bandwidth for each covariate, and a scalar bandwidth that is common for all covariates. A plug-in method is developed and its theoretical performance is fully investigated. The proposed plug-in method works efficiently in our simulation study.     

Propagation-Separation Approach for Local Likelihood Estimation

The paper presents a unified approach to local likelihood estimation for a broad class of nonparametric models, including e.g. the regression, density, Poisson and binary response model. The method extends the adaptive weights smoothing (AWS) procedure introduced in Polzehl and Spokoiny (2000) in context of image denoising. The main idea of the method is to describe a greatest possible local neighborhood of every design point X_i in which the local parametric assumption is justified by the data. The method is especially powerful for model functions having large homogeneous regions and sharp discontinuities. The performance of the proposed procedure is illustrated by numerical examples for density estimation and classification. We also establish some remarkable theoretical nonasymptotic results on properties of the new algorithm. This includes the ``propagation' property which particularly yields the root-n consistency of the resulting estimate in the homogeneous case. We also state an ``oracle' result which implies rate optimality of the estimate under usual smoothness conditions and a ``separation' result which explains the sensitivity of the method to structural changes.     

Robustness of reweighted Least Squares Kernel Based Regression

Kernel Based Regression (KBR) minimizes a convex risk over a possibly infinite dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Recently, it was shown that KBR with a least squares loss function may have some undesirable properties from a robustness point of view: even very small amounts of outliers can dramatically affect the estimates. KBR with other loss functions is more robust, but often gives rise to more complicated computations (e.g. for Huber or logistic losses). In classical statistics robustness is often improved by reweighting the original estimate. In this paper we provide a theoretical framework for reweighted Least Squares KBR (LS-KBR) and analyze its robustness. Some important differences are found with respect to linear regression, indicating that LS-KBR with a bounded kernel is much more suited for reweighting. In two special cases our results can be translated into practical guidelines for a good choice of weights, providing robustness as well as fast convergence. In particular a logistic weight function seems an appropriate choice, not only to downweight outliers, but also to improve performance at heavy tailed distributions. For the latter some heuristic arguments are given comparing concepts from robustness and stability.     

Wavelet estimation of conditional density with truncated, censored and dependent data

In this paper we define a new nonlinear wavelet-based estimator of conditional density function for a random left truncation and right censoring model. We provide an asymptotic expression for the mean integrated squared error (MISE) of the estimator. It is assumed that the lifetime observations form a stationary α-mixing sequence. Unlike for kernel estimators, the MISE expression of the wavelet-based estimators is not affected by the presence of discontinuities in the curves. Also, asymptotic normality of the estimator is established.     

Estimation of the regression operator from functional fixed-design with correlated errors

We consider the estimation of the regression operator r in the functional model: Y=r(x)+ε, where the explanatory variable x is of functional fixed-design type, the response Y is a real random variable and the error process ε is a second order stationary process. We construct the kernel type estimate of r from functional data curves and correlated errors. Then we study their performances in terms of the mean square convergence and the convergence in probability. In particular, we consider the cases of short and long range error processes. When the errors are negatively correlated or come from a short memory process, the asymptotic normality of this estimate is derived. Finally, some simulation studies are conducted for a fractional autoregressive integrated moving average and for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck error processes.     

Bootstrap approximation of tail dependence function

For estimating a rare event via the multivariate extreme value theory, the so-called tail dependence function has to be investigated (see [L. de Haan, J. de Ronde, Sea and wind: Multivariate extremes at work, Extremes 1 (1998) 7-45]). A simple, but effective estimator for the tail dependence function is the tail empirical distribution function, see [X. Huang, Statistics of Bivariate Extreme Values, Ph.D. Thesis, Tinbergen Institute Research Series, 1992] or [R. Schmidt, U. Stadtmüller, Nonparametric estimation of tail dependence, Scand. J. Stat. 33 (2006) 307-335]. In this paper, we first derive a bootstrap approximation for a tail dependence function with an approximation rate via the construction approach developed by [K. Chen, S.H. Lo, On a mapping approach to investigating the bootstrap accuracy, Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 107 (1997) 197-217], and then apply it to construct a confidence band for the tail dependence function. A simulation study is conducted to assess the accuracy of the bootstrap approach.     

Variance component testing in semiparametric mixed models

It is of considerable interest to test for heteroscedasticity in statistical studies. In this paper, we investigate such a problem under the framework of a semiparametric mixed model. A score test is proposed for the hypothesis that all the variance components are zero. We establish the asymptotic property of the test, and examine its performance in a simulation study. The test is illustrated with the analysis of a longitudinal study of measurements of serum creatinine.     

Methods for tracking support boundaries with corners

In a range of practical problems the boundary of the support of a bivariate distribution is of interest, for example where it describes a limit to efficiency or performance, or where it determines the physical extremities of a spatially distributed population in forestry, marine science, medicine, meteorology or geology. We suggest a tracking-based method for estimating a support boundary when it is composed of a finite number of smooth curves, meeting together at corners. The smooth parts of the boundary are assumed to have continuously turning tangents and bounded curvature, and the corners are not allowed to be infinitely sharp; that is, the angle between the two tangents should not equal π. In other respects, however, the boundary may be quite general. In particular it need not be uniquely defined in Cartesian coordinates, its corners my be either concave or convex, and its smooth parts may be neither concave nor convex. Tracking methods are well suited to such generalities, and they also have the advantage of requiring relatively small amounts of computation. It is shown that they achieve optimal convergence rates, in the sense of uniform approximation.     

Oracally efficient spline smoothing of nonlinear additive autoregression models with simultaneous confidence band

Under weak conditions of smoothness and mixing, we propose spline-backfitted spline (SBS) estimators of the component functions for a nonlinear additive autoregression model that is both computationally expedient for analyzing high dimensional large time series data, and theoretically reliable as the estimator is oracally efficient and comes with asymptotically simultaneous confidence band. Simulation evidence strongly corroborates with the asymptotic theory.     

On qualitative robustness of support vector machines

Support vector machines (SVMs) have attracted much attention in theoretical and in applied statistics. The main topics of recent interest are consistency, learning rates and robustness. We address the open problem whether SVMs are qualitatively robust. Our results show that SVMs are qualitatively robust for any fixed regularization parameter λ. However, under extremely mild conditions on the SVM, it turns out that SVMs are not qualitatively robust any more for any null sequence λ_n, which are the classical sequences needed to obtain universal consistency. This lack of qualitative robustness is of a rather theoretical nature because we show that, in any case, SVMs fulfill a finite sample qualitative robustness property.For a fixed regularization parameter, SVMs can be represented by a functional on the set of all probability measures. Qualitative robustness is proven by showing that this functional is continuous with respect to the topology generated by weak convergence of probability measures. Combined with the existence and uniqueness of SVMs, our results show that SVMs are the solutions of a well-posed mathematical problem in Hadamard’s sense.