Modeling centralized organization of organizational change

Organizations change with the dynamics of the world. To enable organizations to change, certain structures and capabilities are needed. As all processes, a change process has an organization of its own. In this paper it is shown how within a formal organization modeling approach also organizational change processes can be modeled. A generic organization model (covering both organization structure and behavior) for organizational change is presented and formally evaluated for a case study. This model takes into account different phases in a change process considered in Organization Theory literature, such as unfreezing, movement and refreezing. Moreover, at the level of individuals, the internal beliefs and their changes are incorporated in the model. In addition, an internal mental model for (reflective) reasoning about expected role behavior is included in the organization model.     

Computational and mathematical organization theory: Perspective and directions

Computational and mathematical organization theory is an interdisciplinary scientific area whose research members focus on developing and testing organizational theory using formal models. The community shares a theoretical view of organizations as collections of processes and intelligent adaptive agents that are task oriented, socially situated, technologically bound, and continuously changing. Behavior within the organization is seen to affect and be affected by the organization's, position in the external environment. The community also shares a methodological orientation toward the use of formal models for developing and testing theory. These models are both computational (e.g., simulation, emulation, expert systems, computer-assisted numerical analysis) and mathematical (e.g., formal logic, matrix algebra, network analysis, discrete and continuous equations). Much of the research in this area falls into four areas: organizational design, organizational learning, organizations and information technology, and organizational evolution and change. Historically, much of the work in this area has been focused on the issue how should organizations be designed. The work in this subarea is cumulative and tied to other subfields within organization theory more generally. The second most developed area is organizational learning. This research, however, is more tied to the work in psychology, cognitive science, and artificial intelligence than to general organization theory. Currently there is increased activity in the subareas of organizations and information technology and organizational evolution and change. Advances in these areas may be made possible by combining network analysis techniques with an information processing approach to organizations. Formal approaches are particularly valuable to all of these areas given the complex adaptive nature of the organizational agents and the complex dynamic nature of the environment faced by these agents and the organizations.This paper was previously presented at the 1995 Informs meeting in Los Angeles, CA.     

Staff optimization for time-dependent acute patient flow

The emergency department is a key element of acute patient flow, but due to high demand and an alternating rate of arriving patients, the department is often challenged by insufficient capacity. Proper allocation of resources to match demand is, therefore, a vital task for many emergency departments.Constrained by targets on patient waiting time, we consider the problem of minimizing the total amount of staff-resources allocated to an emergency department. We test a matheuristic approach to this problem, accounting for both patient flow and staff scheduling restrictions. Using a continuous-time Markov chain, patient flow is modeled as a time-dependent queueing network where inhomogeneous behavior is evaluated using the uniformization method. Based on this modeling approach, we recursively evaluate and allocate staff to the system using integer linear programming until the waiting time targets are respected in all queues of the network. By comparing to discrete-event simulations of the associated system, we show that this approach is adequate for both modeling and optimizing the patient flow. In addition, we demonstrate robustness to the service time distribution and the associated system with multiple classes of patients.     

Behavioral modeling in weight loss interventions

Designing systems with human agents is difficult because it often requires models that characterize agents’ responses to changes in the system’s states and inputs. An example of this scenario occurs when designing treatments for obesity. While weight loss interventions through increasing physical activity and modifying diet have found success in reducing individuals’ weight, such programs are difficult to maintain over long periods of time due to lack of patient adherence. A promising approach to increase adherence is through the personalization of treatments to each patient. In this paper, we make a contribution toward treatment personalization by developing a framework for predictive modeling using utility functions that depend upon both time-varying system states and motivational states evolving according to some modeled process corresponding to qualitative social science models of behavior change. Computing the predictive model requires solving a bilevel program, which we reformulate as a mixed-integer linear program (MILP). This reformulation provides the first (to our knowledge) formulation for Bayesian inference that uses empirical histograms as prior distributions. We study the predictive ability of our framework using a data set from a weight loss intervention, and our predictive model is validated by comparison to standard machine learning approaches. We conclude by describing how our predictive model could be used for optimization, unlike standard machine learning approaches that cannot.     

Making Organizational Learning Operational: Implications from Learning Classifier Systems

The concepts of organizational learning in organization and management science cover a very wide range of organization-related activities in organization. Since socially situated intelligence is one of such activities, this paper makes the concept of organizational learning operational from the computational viewpoint for investigating socially situated intelligence. In particular, this paper focuses on the characteristics of multiagent learning as one kind of socially situated intelligence, and analyzes them using four operationalized learning mechanisms in organizational learning. A careful investigation on the characteristics of multiagent learning has revealed the following implications: (1) there are two levels in the learning mechanisms for multiagent learning (the individual level and organizational level) and each mechanism is divided into two types (single- and double-loop learning). The integration of these four learning mechanisms improves socially situated intelligence; and (2) the following properties support socially situated intelligence: (a) different dimensions in learning mechanisms, (b) interaction among various levels and types of learning mechanisms in addition to interaction among agents, and (c) combination of exploration at an individual level and exploitation at an organizational level.     

Efficient modeling of MIMO systems through Timed Automata based Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Engine

This paper introduces a novel neuro-fuzzy approach for learning and modeling so-called Multi-Input Multi-Output Coupling (MIMO) systems, i.e., systems where the output variables may depend upon all system's input variables. This strong coupling makes the MIMO systems behavior highly oscillatory in time and, as a consequence, it makes these systems not particularly suitable to be learned and represented by using conventional approaches. In order to address this issue, our proposal presents an adaptive supervised learning algorithm capable of forming a suitable collection of Timed Automata based Fuzzy Systems that model the dynamic behavior of a given MIMO system. The adaptive learning is accomplished by taking advantage of the theories coming from the area of times series analysis (such as the Adaptive Piecewise Constant Approximation method) with a well-known neuro-fuzzy framework of the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). In experiments, where our proposal has been tested on the Fuzz-IEEE 2011 Fuzzy Competition dataset, the proposed supervised learning algorithm significantly reduces the output error measure and achieves better performance than the one provided by a conventional application of the ANFIS algorithm.     

Compliance signaling games: toward modeling the deterrence of insider threats

In a typical workplace, organizational policies and their compliance requirements set the stage upon which the behavioral patterns of individual agents evolve. The agents’ personal utilities, access to information, and strategic deceptions shape the signaling systems of an intricate information-asymmetric game, thus mystifying assessment and management of organizational risks, which are primarily due to unintentional insider threats. Compliance games, as discussed here, model a rudimentary version of this signaling game between a sender (employee) and a receiver (organization). The analysis of these games’ equilibria as well as their dynamics in repeated game settings illuminate the effectiveness or risks of an organizational policy. These questions are explored via a repeated and agent-based simulation of compliance signaling games, leading to the following: (1) a simple but broadly applicable model for interactions between sender agents (employees) and receiver agents (principals in the organization), (2) an investigation of how the game theoretic approach yields the plausible dynamics of compliance, and (3) design of experiments to estimate parameters of the systems: evolutionary learning rates of agents, the efficacy of auditing using a trembling hand strategy, effects of non-stationary and multiple principal agents, and ultimately, the robustness of the system under perturbation of various related parameters (costs, penalties, benefits, etc.). The paper concludes with a number of empirical studies, illustrating a battery of compliance games under varying environments designed to investigate agent based learning, system control, and optimization. The studies indicate how agents through limited interactions described by behavior traces may learn and optimize responses to a stationary defense, expose sensitive parameters and emergent properties and indicate the possibility of controlling interventions which actuate game parameters. We believe that the work is of practical importance—for example, in constraining the vulnerability surfaces arising from compliance games.     

Complex systems and human movement

Human movement reveals the hall mark characteristics of complex systems: namely, many interacting subsystems, multiple interactions within and between levels of analysis, emergence of movement coordination modes, and the exhibition of varying levels of the complexity of system output that continually evolve with learning and development over the life span. Here we outline how this high or infinitely dimensional complex dynamical system can be modeled by an epigenetic landscape framework—in the sense of Waddington—that captures the key features of the adaptive qualitative and quantitative properties of coordination modes (“order parameters”), the degeneracy of movement organization and the time scales of change. The framework provides some new ways to consider old problems in motor learning and development—such as an explicit and quantitative approach to exploring the concept of motor programs and developmental pathways—and yields new results and insights into the organization of learning during practice and rest times. For instance along one dimension of the landscape most of the changes occur between practice sessions. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 12: 40–51, 2006     

Emergent learning behaviour in a simulated organization faced with tasks requiring team effort

We conceptualize organizational learning as a result of the collective learning behaviour of knowledge agents in an organization. Each agent provides a range of attributes that may be required to perform organizational tasks. We devised a computational model consisting of three processes to simulate an organization's response to performing repeated tasks: (1) Expert Selection Process for selecting the winner knowledge agent or lead agent; (2) Plan Formation Process for deciding what additional attributes are needed, but not possessed by the winner expert agent, and iteratively selecting further agents with the needed attributes until the task can be accomplished by the combined attributes of the ‘coalition of agents’ so formed; and (3) Capital Modification Process for rewarding participating agents according to the success of their combined organizational performance. We observed the simulated results for different combinations of three levels of task difficulty (requiring, respectively, 5, 10 and, 15 different attributes, each at a sufficient level in the coalition or team to complete the task), and three levels of selection, during plan formation, for knowledge agent performance (the extent to which selection favours knowledge agents with much capital or large strength versus knowledge agents without much capital or large strength). The simulated organization exhibited aspects of both single loop and double loop learning, in repeatedly performing the same task, and ‘learning to perform the task’ with the smallest possible team.     

A framework for solving network revenue management problems with customer choice behavior

Revenue management is the process of understanding, anticipating and influencing consumer behavior in order to maximize revenue. Network revenue management models attempt to maximize revenue when customers buy bundles of multiple resources. The dependence among the resources in such cases is created by customer demand. Network revenue management can be formulated as a stochastic dynamic programming problem whose exact solution is computationally intractable. Solutions are based on approximations of various types. Customer choice behavior modeling has been gaining increasing attention in the revenue management. A framework for solving network revenue management problems with customer choice behavior is proposed. The modeling and solving framework is composed from three inter-related network structures: basic network model, Petri net, and neural net.     

Modeling safety culture as a socially emergent phenomenon: a case study in aircraft maintenance

Safety culture is often understood as encompassing organizational members’ shared attitudes, beliefs, perceptions and values associated with safety. Safety culture theory development is fraught with inconsistencies and superficiality of measurement methods, because the dynamic and political nature of culture is often ignored. Traditionally, safety culture is analyzed by survey-based approaches. In this paper we propose a novel, systemic, interdisciplinary approach for investigating safety culture that combines multi-agent system modeling with organizational ethnography. By using this approach, mechanisms of emergence of safety culture from daily practices, operations and interactions of organizational actors can be modeled and analyzed. The approach is illustrated by a case study from the aircraft maintenance domain, based on existing ethnographic data. Using the proposed approach we were able to reproduce and explain emergent characteristic patterns of commitment to safety in the maintenance organization from this study. The model can be used for theory development and as a management tool to evaluate non-linear impacts of organizational arrangements on workers’ commitment to safety.     

Managing critical success strategies for an enterprise resource planning project

This paper develops an innovative objectives-oriented approach with one evaluation model and three optimization models for managing the implementation of a set of critical success strategies (CSSs) for an enterprise resource planning (ERP) project in an organization. To evaluate the CSSs based on their contribution to the organizational objectives, the evaluation model addresses an important issue of measuring the relationship between objectives in a three-level hierarchy involving the organization, its functional departments, and the ERP project. To determine the optimal management priority for implementing the CSSs from the organization’s perspective, the three optimization models maximize their total implementation value by integrating individual departments’ management preferences. An empirical study is conducted to demonstrate how these models work and how their outcomes can provide practical insights and implications in planning and managing the implementation of the CSSs for an ERP project.     

Towards an Organizational Model of Attitude Change

Building on the growing literature that views organizations as complex adaptive systems, this paper proposes a general model to analyze the relationship between organizational context and attitudes. In particular, we focus on how the system of formal and informal communication channels that characterize an organization and the timing of information flows affect the dynamic process of attitude change. We also use a stylized version of the model to illustrate how the general framework is able to generate insights that are relevant to particular situations.     

Complex dynamics in equilibrium asset pricing models with boundedly rational,heterogeneous agents

We study a simple model based upon the Lucas framework where heterogeneous agents behave rationally in a fully intertemporal setting but do not know other investors' personal preferences, wealth or investment portfolios. As a consequence, agents initially do not know the equilibrium asset pricing function and must make guesses, which they update via adaptive learning with constant gain. We demonstrate that even in this simple environment the economy can, depending on parameters, exhibit either stable convergence to equilibrium, or chaotic dynamical behavior of asset prices and trading volume without converging to the rational expectations equilibrium of the Lucas model. This contradicts the assertion that the Lucas model is stable in the face of modest deviations from the strong assumptions required to compute the equilibrium. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 19: 38–55, 2014     

Adaptation in a stochastic multi-resources chemostat model

We are interested in modeling the Darwinian evolution resulting from the interplay of phenotypic variation and natural selection through ecological interactions, in the specific scales of the biological framework of adaptive dynamics. Adaptive dynamics so far has been put on a rigorous footing only for direct competition models (Lotka–Volterra models) involving a competition kernel which describes the competition pressure from one individual to another one. We extend this to a multi-resources chemostat model, where the competition between individuals results from the sharing of several resources which have their own dynamics. Starting from a stochastic birth and death process model, we prove that, when advantageous mutations are rare, the population behaves on the mutational time scale as a jump process moving between equilibrium states (the polymorphic evolution sequence of the adaptive dynamics literature). An essential technical ingredient is the study of the long time behavior of a chemostat multi-resources dynamical system. In the small mutational steps limit this process in turn gives rise to a differential equation in phenotype space called canonical equation of adaptive dynamics. From this canonical equation and still assuming small mutation steps, we prove a rigorous characterization of the evolutionary branching points.     

Can tools help unify organization theory? Perspectives on the state of computational modeling

Scholars engaged in the study of work group and organizational behavior are increasingly calling for the use of integrated methods in conducting research, including the wider adoption of computational models for generating and testing new theory. Our review of the state of modern computational modeling incorporating social structures reveals steady increases in the incorporation of dynamic, adaptive, and realistic behaviors of agents in network settings, yet exposes gaps that must be addressed in the next generation of organizational simulation systems. We compare 28 models according to more than two hundred evaluation criteria, ranging from simple representations of agent demographic and performance characteristics, to more richly defined instantiations of behavioral attributes, interaction with non-agent entities, model flexibility, communication channels, simulation types, knowledge, transactive memory, task complexity, and resource networks. Our survey assesses trends across the wide set of criteria, discusses practical applications, and proposes an agenda for future research and development. Michael J. Ashworth is a doctoral candidate in computational organization science at Carnegie Mellon University, where he conducts research on social, knowledge, and transactive memory networks along with their effects on group and organizational learning and performance. Practical outcomes of his work include improved understanding of the impact of technology, offshoring, and turnover on organizational performance. Mr. Ashworth has won several prestigious grants from the Sloan Foundation and the National Science Foundation to pursue his research on transactive memory networks. Journals in which his research has appeared include Journal of Mathematical Sociology, International Journal of Human Resource Management, and Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Systems. His recent work on managing human resource challenges in the electric power industry has been featured in the Wall Street Journal and on National Public Radio's ``Morning Edition.' Mr. Ashworth received his undergraduate degree in systems engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology. Kathleen M. Carley is a professor at the Institute for Software Research International in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University. She is the director of the center for Computational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS), a university-wide interdisciplinary center that brings together network analysis, computer science and organization science (www.casos.ece.cmu.edu). Prof. Carley carries out research that combines cognitive science, dynamic social networks, text processing, organizations, social and computer science in a variety of theoretical and applied venues. Her specific research areas are computational social and organization theory; dynamic social networks; multi-agent network models; group, organizational, and social adaptation, and evolution; statistical models for dynamic network analysis and evolution, computational text analysis, and the impact of telecommunication technologies on communication and information diffusion within and among groups. Prof. Carley has undergraduate degrees in economics and political science from MIT and a doctorate in sociology from Harvard University.     

Designing tree-structured organizations for computational agents

We describe a framework for defining the space of organization designs for computational agents, use our framework for analyzing the expected performance of a class of organizations, and describe how our analyses can be applied to predict performance for a distributed information gathering task. Our analysis specifically addresses the impact of the span of control (branching factor) in tree-structured hierarchical organizations on the response time of such organizations. We show quantitatively how the overall task size and granularity influence the design of the span of control for the organization, and that within the class of organizations considered the apropriate span of control is confined to a relatively narrow range. The performance predicted by our overall model correlates with the actual performance of a distributed organization for computer network monitoring. Consequently, we argue that our framework can support aspects of organizational self-design for computational agents, and might supply insights into the design of human organizations as well.     

Profit allocation games in supply chains

The paper considers a supply chain where a number of agents are connected in some network relationship. Game theory is a very powerful framework for studying decision making problems, involving a group of agents in a supply chain. Allocation games examine the allocation of value among agents connected by a network. The ongoing actions in the supply chain are a mix of cooperative and non-cooperative behavior of the participants. The paper proposes a two-stage procedure for profit allocation based on combination of non-cooperative and cooperative game approaches. In the first stage, retailers meet customer price-dependent stochastic demand and seek to maximize total profit from the sale. Retailers are trying to align goals with producers on a contract basis and share the total profit with them. In the second stage, the cooperating producers allocate individual profits.     

Strategic bidding of offer curves: An agent-based approach to exploring supply curve equilibria

We model a market in which suppliers bid step-function offer curves using agent-based modeling. Our model is an abstraction of electricity markets where step-function offer curves are given to an independent system operator that manages the auctions in electricity markets. Positing an elementary and computationally accessible learning model, Probe and Adjust, we present analytic results that characterize both the behavior of the learning model and the properties of step-function equilibria. Thus, we have developed a framework for validating agent-based models prior to using them in situations that are too complicated to be analyzed using traditional economic theory. In addition, we demonstrate computationally that, by using alternative policies, even simple agents can achieve monopoly rewards for themselves by pursuing more industry-oriented strategies. This raises the issue of how participants in oligopolistic markets actually behave.     

A computational model for multi-agent E-commerce negotiations with adaptive negotiation behaviors

This paper presents a computational model to organize multi-agent E-commerce negotiations with adaptive negotiation behaviors aiming at enhancing the negotiation flexibilities of software agents. Firstly, the computational E-commerce negotiation model covering negotiation protocol, negotiation issues and negotiation strategies is specified to assist agents’ computing functions. Then, a three-staged adaptive negotiation behavior configuration mechanism is proposed to tackle the negotiation dynamics. In the pre-negotiation stage, agents’ negotiation behaviors are deployed by the case-based strategy assignment mechanism; in the on-going negotiation stage, opponents’ negotiation behaviors are tracked through the neural network learning model; in the post-negotiation stage, opponents’ concession functions are recorded using the time series measure. Finally, the computational negotiation model is tested through hypothetical negotiation cases. The outcomes show that the adaptive negotiation behavior configuration mechanism can benefit an agent to win more in the E-commerce negotiation.