Real estate price prediction under asymmetric loss

This paper deals with the problem of how to adjust a predictive mean in a practical situation of prediction where there is asymmetry in the loss function. A standard linear model is considered for predicting the price of real estate using a normal-gamma conjugate prior for the parameters. The prior of a subject real estate agent is elicited but, for comparison, a diffuse prior is also considered. Three loss functions are used: asymmetric linear, asymmetric quadratic and LINEX, and the parameters under each of these postulated forms are elicited. Theoretical developments for prediction under each loss function in the presence of normal errors are presented and useful tables of adjustment factor values given. Predictions of the dependent price variable for two properties with differing characteristics are made under each loss function and the results compared.     

Retail price markup commitment in decentralized supply chains

We investigate the operational decisions and resulting profits for a supply chain facing price-dependent demand under a policy where there is an ex-ante commitment made on the retail price markup. We obtain closed-form solutions for this policy under the assumption of a multiplicative demand function and we analytically compare its performance with that of a traditional price-only policy. We compare these results to results obtained when demand follows a linear additive form. These formulations are shown to be qualitatively different as the manufacturer’s wholesale pricing decision is independent of the retail price markup commitment in the multiplicative case, but not when demand is linear additive. We demonstrate that the ex-ante commitment can lead to Pareto-improving solutions under linear additive demand, but not under the multiplicative demand function. We also consider the effect of pricing power in the supply chain by varying who determines the retail price markup.     

Resale price maintenance in supply chains with general multiplicative demand

We analyze a supply chain with a Resale Price Maintenance (RPM) contract in which the manufacturer sets the retail price with a general multiplicative price–demand function and prove the existence/uniqueness of an equilibrium. We also compare the equilibrium prices and quantities, consumer surplus and total system welfare for the RPM and wholesale price contracts. We conclude that a manufacturer may capture a smaller share of the total supply chain profit despite her ability to set the retail price.     

Distributive property of completely multiplicative functions

A classical theorem of Lambek states that an arithmetic function is completely multiplicative if and only if it distributes over the Dirichlet product of any two arithmetic functions. Taking a generalized Möbius function as an element in this product, our first objective is to investigate, through the concepts of discriminative and partially discriminative products, under which conditions such distributive property yields a necessary and sufficient condition for complete multiplicativity. Our second objective is to derive an extension of the Ivi?–Haukkanen characterization of completely multiplicative functions through the concept of semi-discriminative product.     

Value Estimation Approach to the Iri-Imai Method for Constrained Convex Optimization

In this paper we propose an extension of the so-called Iri-Imai method to solve constrained convex programming problems. The original Iri-Imai method is designed for linear programs and assumes that the optimal objective value of the optimization problem is known in advance. Zhang (Ref. 9) extends the method for constrained convex optimization but the optimum value is still assumed to be known in advance. In our new extension this last requirement on the optimal value is relaxed; instead only a lower bound of the optimal value is needed. Our approach uses a multiplicative barrier function for the problem with a univariate parameter that represents an estimated optimum value of the original optimization problem. An optimal solution to the original problem can be traced down by minimizing the multiplicative barrier function. Due to the convexity of this barrier function the optimal objective value as well as the optimal solution of the original problem are sought iteratively by applying Newtons method to the multiplicative barrier function. A new formulation of the multiplicative barrier function is further developed to acquire computational tractability and efficiency. Numerical results are presented to show the efficiency of the new method.His research supported by Hong Kong RGC Earmarked Grant CUHK4233/01E.Communicated by Z. Q. Luo     

Shape-Preserving Interpolation and Smoothing for Options Market Implied Volatility

The interpolation of the market implied volatility function from several observations of option prices is often required in financial practice and empirical study. However, the results from existing interpolation methods may not satisfy the property that the European call option price function is monotonically decreasing and convex with respect to the strike price. In this paper, a modified convex interpolation method (with and without smoothing) is developed to approximate the option price function while explicitly incorporating the shape restrictions. The method is optimal for minimizing the distance between the implied risk-neutral density function and a prior density function, which allows us to benefit from nonparametric methodology and empirical experience. Numerical performance shows that the method is accurate and robust. Whether or not the sample satisfies the convexity and decreasing constraints, the method always works. H. Yin’s research was supported by FRG of Minnesota State University Mankato and Chinese NSF Grants 10671203, 70531040, and 70621001. L. Qi’s work was supported by the Hong Kong Research Grant Council.     

Alternating Minimization as Sequential Unconstrained Minimization: A Survey

Sequential unconstrained minimization is a general iterative method for minimizing a function over a given set. At each step of the iteration we minimize the sum of the objective function and an auxiliary function. The aim is to select the auxiliary functions so that, at least, we get convergence in function value to the constrained minimum. The SUMMA is a broad class of these methods for which such convergence holds. Included in the SUMMA class are the barrier-function methods, entropic and other proximal minimization algorithms, the simultaneous multiplicative algebraic reconstruction technique, and, after some reformulation, penalty-function methods. The alternating minimization method of Csiszár and Tusnády also falls within the SUMMA class, whenever their five-point property holds. Therefore, the expectation maximization maximum likelihood algorithm for the Poisson case is also in the SUMMA class.     

Auctions with an asking price

This paper studies a sales mechanism, prevalent in housing markets, where the seller does not reveal or commit to a reserve price but instead publicly announces an asking price. We show that the seller sets an asking price such that, in equilibrium, buyers of certain types would accept it with positive probability. We also show that this sales mechanism, with an optimally chosen asking price set prior to the seller learning her value, does better than any standard auction with a reserve price equal to the seller’s reservation value. We then extend the analysis to the case where the asking price reveals information about the seller’s reservation value. We show that in this case there is a separating equilibrium with fully-revealing asking prices, which is revenue-equivalent to a standard auction with a reserve price set at the seller’s reservation value.     

Bus Fares Pricing

Transport pricing at the level of the firm is addressed. The numbers of full fare passengers travelling on three routes of two competing bus companies are analysed using a multiplicative discontinuous price model. Results show that generally only the operator increasing the price suffers a loss of passengers and the price elasticity is a non-linear function of the resulting price difference. The method of analysis and the results have implications for the market modelling of fast moving consumer goods. It is noted that almost no studies of transport pricing at the level of the firm have been carried out previously because of lack of data.     

Regularity of the American Put option in the Black–Scholes model with general discrete dividends

We analyze the regularity of the value function and of the optimal exercise boundary of the American Put option when the underlying asset pays a discrete dividend at known times during the lifetime of the option. The ex-dividend asset price process is assumed to follow the Black–Scholes dynamics and the dividend amount is a deterministic function of the ex-dividend asset price just before the dividend date. This function is assumed to be non-negative, non-decreasing and with growth rate not greater than 1. We prove that the exercise boundary is continuous and that the smooth contact property holds for the value function at any time but the dividend dates. We thus extend and generalize the results obtained in Jourdain and Vellekoop (2011) [10] when the dividend function is also positive and concave. Lastly, we give conditions on the dividend function ensuring that the exercise boundary is locally monotonic in a neighborhood of the corresponding dividend date.     

Hölder absolute values are equivalent to classical ones

We study generalized absolute values on a field or a commutative ring with unit element satisfying an approximate triangle inequality and an approximate multiplicative property. We prove that they are always Hölder equivalent to an absolute value. This implies geometric rigidity results for Lipschitz and Hölder deformations of metric rings.

     

Modelling a property's time to sale by inflating its previous selling price

The modelling of the time to sale for residential property is complex because of complicating factors such as properties changing their price or being withdrawn from sale, changing market conditions, the presence of submarkets, whether the property represents ‘good value’, and seller motivation. This paper analyses a data set of modern properties that contains information about their previous selling price. This information is used to value the properties instead of the standard method of regressing on the physical characteristics of the properties. A survival analysis approach is then used to model the time to sale with this time being adjusted to take into account changing market circumstances and alterations to the list price during this period. It is found that the hazard rate for selling a property is approximately constant for the first 9 months a property is marketed.     

On index-2 linear implicit difference equations

This paper deals with an index-2 notion for linear implicit difference equations (LIDEs) and with the solvability of initial value problems (IVPs) for index-2 LIDEs. Besides, the cocycle property as well as the multiplicative ergodic theorem of Oseledets type are also proved.     

The geometry of relative arbitrage

Consider an equity market with n stocks. The vector of proportions of the total market capitalizations that belong to each stock is called the market weight. The market weight defines the market portfolio which is a buy-and-hold portfolio representing the performance of the entire stock market. Consider a function that assigns a portfolio vector to each possible value of the market weight, and we perform self-financing trading using this portfolio function. We study the problem of characterizing functions such that the resulting portfolio will outperform the market portfolio in the long run under the conditions of diversity and sufficient volatility. No other assumption on the future behavior of stock prices is made. We prove that the only solutions are functionally generated portfolios in the sense of Fernholz. A second characterization is given as the optimal maps of a remarkable optimal transport problem. Both characterizations follow from a novel property of portfolios called multiplicative cyclical monotonicity.     

一个新的数论函数及其均值

设f(n)为任一数论函数,本文的主要目的是引入一类新的可乘函数g f(n),其定义如下:当n=1时,g f(1)=1;对任意素数p及正整数α≥1,定义g f(pα)=pf(α),并给出其均值的两个有趣的渐近公式.     

Regularity properties in a state-constrained expected utility maximization problem

We consider a stochastic optimal control problem in a market model with temporary and permanent price impact, which is related to an expected utility maximization problem under finite fuel constraint. We establish the initial condition fulfilled by the corresponding value function and show its first regularity property. Moreover, we can prove the existence and uniqueness of an optimal strategy under rather mild model assumptions. This will then allow us to derive further regularity properties of the corresponding value function, in particular its continuity and partial differentiability. As a consequence of the continuity of the value function, we will prove a dynamic programming principle without appealing to the classical measurable selection arguments. This permits us to establish a tight relation between our value function and a nonlinear parabolic degenerated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation with singularity. To conclude, we show a comparison principle, which allows us to characterize our value function as the unique viscosity solution of the HJB equation.     

Lorenzen Monoids: A Multiplicative Approach to Kronecker Function Rings

Using the formalism of module systems on a commutative cancellative monoid, we generalize the classical concept of Lorenzen monoids to obtain a multiplicative model for the semistar Kronecker function ring introduced by Fontana and Loper. We prove a universal mapping property and investigate the generalized Lorenzen monoid from a valuation-theoretic and an ideal-theoretic point of view.     

Production decisions under joint price and production uncertainty

While production decisions in the presence of price uncertainty have been extensively studied, this is not so for the case in which the level of production is itself uncertain. In this paper,we provide a decision analysis under multiplicative production uncertainty, both with and without price uncertainty. We depict equilibrium and obtain comparative statics results with the aid of a diagram based on the difference between expected price and marginal cost. Comparative statics results are obtained for the model with production uncertainty alone and also for simultaneous price and production uncertainty (including two special cases). We first derive results based on the Arrow–Pratt coefficients of risk aversion, and then supplement these with the Ross measure of relative risk aversion, since this proves useful in the presence of multiple sources of uncertainty. We find that increases in risk (both price and production) or input prices reduce expected output. However, expected output supply is an increasing function of (expected) price only for “low” levels of risk aversion, and in general the relationship is ambiguous.     

关于一类F.Smarandache可乘函数的均值

主要目的是利用解析方法研究一类F.Smarandache可乘函数的渐近性质,并给出关于这个函数的一个有趣的渐近公式.     

Threshold probability of non-terminal type in finite horizon Markov decision processes

We consider a class of problems concerned with maximizing probabilities, given stage-wise targets, which generalizes the standard threshold probability problem in Markov decision processes. The objective function is the probability that, at all stages, the associatively combined accumulation of rewards earned up to that point takes its value in a specified stage-wise interval. It is shown that this class reduces to the case of the nonnegative-valued multiplicative criterion through an invariant imbedding technique. We derive a recursive formula for the optimal value function and an effective method for obtaining the optimal policies.