基于集对分析联系数的区间数型水环境质量综合评价模型及其应用

水环境质量综合评价具有不确定性,其待评价水质监测值及评价标准是区间数.针对待评价水质监测值与水环境质量评价标准不能直接比较大小的问题,根据区间数的误差分布形式,提出一种基于集对分析联系数的区间数型水环境质量综合评价模型.模型定义了两个联系数之间的加权海明距离,用水环境质量评价标准组成标准联系数,待评价水质监测值组成待评价联系数,通过计算待评价联系数与标准联系数的加权联系数海明距离,根据a+bi型联系数大小比较法则,综合判定待评价水质级别.以浑河沈阳东陵大桥处实测水质部分结果评价为例进行计算分析,并与其它方法得到的结果进行了对比,得到的结果一致.     

基于联系云-证据理论的岩爆烈度预测模型

岩爆机理复杂影响因素众多且呈现多种不确定性,应用云模型预测岩爆问题虽能刻画指标的随机性和模糊性,但很难模拟非正态分布的评价指标及存在冲突数据融合失真问题.为克服这些缺陷,探讨了岩爆烈度的联系云-证据预测模型.该模型首先基于联系数定量表达评价指标,通过联系云构建评价矩阵,并应用D-S证据理论得到基本概率赋值,进而基于距离函数的组合权重与融合均值证据预测样本的岩爆等级.实例应用及与其他方法对比结果表明,该模型应用于岩爆预测是有效可行的,且克服了传统云模型和证据理论的不足,为岩爆烈度分级预测提供了一种新的途径.     

基于核和测度的区间灰数预测模型

区间灰数的确定与其核和测度有关,通过计算灰数的核和测度,将区间灰数转变成实数.分别对区间灰数核序列和测度序列建立预测模型,再推导还原得到区间灰数的预测模型.并将此模型应用于黄河内蒙段巴彦高勒站冰期日均流量预测,结果验证了所建模型的有效性和实用性.     

基于联系数复运算的区间数型基坑支护方案评价向量投影模型及其应用

用区间数型指标表示的基坑支护方案评价具有不确定性.通过对已有区间数型多属性决策模型的分析,针对赋权方法及区间数排序的不足,根据向量投影原理,建立了一种基于a+bi型联系数复运算的区间数型多属性决策向量投影模型.该模型首先采用主客观组合赋权法对各属性指标赋权,采用提出的区间数向量投影公式计算备择方案在理想方案上的区间数加权向量投影,然后将区间数转换为a+bi型联系数,最后通过计算联系数的模进行方案优劣排序.以某大厦基坑支护拟用的4种方案评价为例,说明方法的应用,并进行了不确定性分析与对比.     

岩石裂隙网络的分形特征

分形特征与分形维数广泛应用于岩石裂隙网络的量化,及与工程参数的关系模型建立.然而,严格的分形维数的极限定义形式难以直接应用,工程应用中多用近似分形维数值代替,近似的结果在建立量化关系模型时会产生蝴蝶效应,在量化及预测过程中产生巨大偏差.本文回顾了分形研究一系列的发展过程,并基于最新的分形定义提出了一种新的分形维数计算方法.通过对于十个岩石裂隙网络分形维数的计算,证明该方法能够准确有效的计算出图形的复杂度,避免了以往计算分形维数所产生的问题.     

苎麻纤维细度测试与分析的灰色模型

基于灰色系统理论的灰色建模应用于试验数据的相关分析 ,比基于数理统计的回归分析在实际应用中由于所需样本容量较小而具有明显的优点 ,特别对贫信息系统适用 .从而可避免在回归分析中因样本容量太小而致使回归方程的误差不可预测的弊端 .鉴于上述原理 ,本文采用灰色系统理论建立了苎麻纤维Tex数 Y与投影宽度 X之间的灰色 GM( 1 ,2 )模型 ,并进行了误差分析 .利用此模型探索了通过测定苎麻纤维投影宽度来计算其 Tex数的方法 .为生产工艺控制、产品质量检验和监督提供了一种简便而科学的办法 .     

基于集对分析联系数的区间型基坑支护方案综合评价方法及其应用

由于基坑支护方案的复杂性和不确定性以及人类思维的模糊性,其评价指标常用区间数形式来表达.针对区间数排序计算量大、步骤繁琐的不足,根据区间数的误差分布形式,沟通区间数与联系数的关系,提出了一种基于集对分析联系数的区间型基坑支护方案综合评价方法.方法根据区间数与联系数的关系将区间数多属性决策矩阵转化为对应的a+bi型联系数表示形式,再对转化后的联系数决策矩阵进行规范化处理,最后采用加权求和方法得到综合联系数矩阵.根据a+bi型联系数大小比较方法,对各方案进行优劣排序.通过实例与其它评价方法进行了对比,得到的结果完全一致,从而验证了该方法的可行性和有效性.该方法简便、实用、直观、易懂,易于推广使用.     

在校大学生数量预测研究

高等教育规模的预测是重要的基础性工作,在校大学生数量是规模的首要因素,而决定大学生数量的要点是适龄人口和毛入学率.基于人口推算模型对未来10年的18-22岁适龄人口数进行计算,利用灰色系统模型对高等教育毛入学率进行预测,在此基础上,将毛入学率的定义式与适龄人口数推算法相结合,推导出用于计算在校大学生数量的毛入学率与适龄人口的乘积模型,计算结果表明,模型对我国2010-2020年的在校大学生数量规模具有良好的预测效果.     

医院医疗服务质量管理的灰关联分析

将灰关联分析方法应用于医院管理年活动中,分析了影响医疗服务质量的相关因素,并对医院医疗服务质量进行综合评价.     

工程项目承包服务业主需求重要度确定方法研究

工程服务质量日渐成为承包商企业提高竞争力并获得长期发展的一个重要因素.但传统的对工程服务质量的研究大都忽略了业主需求,对此,本文基于QFD(质量功能展开)理论,结合专家组与顾客双渠道的需求信息来源,提出了集成Kano模型与区间层次分析法的业主需求重要度的计算方法,提升了需求重要度确定的合理性并将顾客的需求偏好信息充分反映到计算过程中,使得承包商企业能够运用科学准确的业主需求信息提高自身服务质量.通过对算法的实际应用,得出业主需求重要度的排序,承包商可以根据该排序对自身服务质量进行评价与改进,证明了该方法可行且有效,具有一定的实践价值.     

高速铁路旅客满意度研究:服务接触理论视角

作为旅客重要的出行方式,高速铁路既面临着市场竞争,又面临着旅客不断增长的服务质量要求。基于服务接触理论形成高速铁路客运服务接触链,从理论上构建高速铁路旅客满意度模型,研究影响旅客满意度的关键接触点。运用SEM定量分析潜变量间的路径系数,对该理论模型的路径假设进行检验。结果表明:四个阶段的服务接触直接影响旅客满意度,间接影响旅客忠诚度;四个服务接触阶段对旅客满意度的影响效应从高到低依次是列车、候车、出站、进站;各服务接触阶段对旅客忠诚度的影响存在明显差异。     

基于粗糙集的铁路客运服务质量改善程度评价模型研究

通过对铁路客运服务质量的改善情况的研究,提出了基于粗糙集和马尔可夫过程的铁路客运服务质量改善程度评价模型.该模型利用马尔可夫过程得到各个指标的改善状况;引入粗糙集确定的指标权重得到服务质量总体改善情况.通过对调查问卷的数据进行分析,验证了以上模型的科学性和可行性.     

Cost optimal allocation of rail passenger lines

We consider the problem of cost optimal railway line allocation for passenger trains for the Dutch railway system. At present, the allocation of passenger lines by Dutch Railways is based on maximizing the number of direct travelers. This paper develops an alternative approach that takes operating costs into account. A mathematical programming model is developed which minimizes the operating costs subject to service constraints and capacity requirements. The model optimizes on lines, line types, routes, frequencies and train lengths. First, the line allocation model is formulated as an integer nonlinear programming model. This model is transformed into an integer linear programming model with binary decision variables. An algorithm is presented which solves the problem to optimality. The algorithm is based upon constraint satisfaction and a Branch and Bound procedure. The algorithm is applied to a subnetwork of the Dutch railway system for which it shows a substantial cost reduction. Further application and extension seem promising.     

Passenger flow control strategies for urban rail transit networks

Urban rail traffic congestion is becoming increasingly serious due to the large traffic demands in modern cities. In order to ensure the safety and quality of station services in peak hours, it's necessary to adopt some reasonable and effective passenger flow control strategies. In this study, through considering the time-dependent passenger demands, a passenger flow control model based on the network-level system is explicitly developed. The passenger successive motion process is discretized by the modeling method. Systematically considering the coordinated relationship between traffic demands and strict capacity constraints (including station passing capacity, platform load capacity and train transport capacity), we establish a mixed integer linear programming model to minimize the total passenger waiting time (including passengers outside stations and on the platforms). The optimization software Cplex is adopted to solve the developed model, and a real network of Beijing urban railway is calibrated to verify the effectiveness of the suggested model. As a result, the proposed flow control strategies can provide detailed information about control stations, control durations and control intensities, and can effectively reduce the total waiting time and relieve the number of stranded passengers in the urban rail transit network.     

A rolling stock circulation model for combining and splitting of passenger trains

This paper addresses the railway rolling stock circulation problem. Given the departure and arrival times as well as the expected numbers of passengers, we have to assign the rolling stock to the timetable services. We consider several objective criteria that are related to operational costs, service quality and reliability of the railway system.Our model is an extension of an existing rolling stock model for routing train units along a number of connected train lines. The extended model can also handle underway combining and splitting of trains.We illustrate our model by computational experiments based on instances of NS Reizigers, the main Dutch operator of passenger trains.     

基于DEA-博弈论模型的铁路电子车票实名制查验评价分析

将基于数据包络分析(DEA)模型和纳什讨价还价博弈论结合, 作为一种合作博弈方法, 对铁路电子车票实名制的查验进行了综合评价, 为准确评估铁路电子车票实名制查验的效率, 加强铁路客运服务水平提供决策判断。本文以20个不同等级的铁路车站为研究对象, 分人工和机器两大类, 选取身份证购票比例、通勤员工购票比例、临时身份证购票比例, 以及人工查验旅客数/小时/通道、机器查验的通过人数/闸机/小时、闸机人脸自动识别比例和延误比例等7个指标作为投入指标, 选取人、证、票三证合一的实名制查验比例作为产出指标, 基于数据包络分析(DEA)和纳什讨价还价博弈论结合的合作博弈模型, 从人工查验和机器查验两个角度对铁路电子车票实名制查验进行统一综合评价。案例结果表明, 铁路电子车票实名制查验效率呈现出人工查验和机器查验效率不均衡的态势; 车站人脸识别闸机的数量投入与所需闸机数量的不匹配是造成实名制查验效率下降的主要原因。根据评价结果, 从人工和机器查验两个角度提出了可行建议, 促进了铁路电子车票实名制查验效率的进一步提升。     

基于旅客选择的高速铁路客运收益管理研究

本文旨在探讨收益管理在高速铁路客运中的应用,给出了存在多级票价时,考虑旅客选择行为的铁路客运收益管理模型,优化结果能够同时给出发车指令和座位出售限制.利用模拟数据对模型进行了数值试验,表明在不同路段长度下,考虑旅客选择行为的总收益较需求独立模型均有所提高,且随着票价等级增多而增长.     

Routing trains through a railway station based on a node packing model

In this paper, we describe the problem of routing trains through a railway station. This routing problem is a subproblem of the automatic generation of timetables for the Dutch railway system. The problem of routing trains through a railway station is the problem of assigning each of the involved trains to a route through the railway station, given the detailed layout of the railway network within the station and given the arrival and departure times of the trains. When solving this routing problem, several aspects such as capacity, safety, and customer service have to be taken into account. In this paper, we describe this routing problem in terms of a weighted node packing problem. Furthermore, we describe an algorithm for solving this routing problem to optimality. The algorithm is based on preprocessing, valid inequalities, and a branch-and-cut approach. The preprocessing techniques aim at identifying superfluous nodes which can be removed from the problem instance. The characteristics of the preprocessing techniques with respect to propagation are investigated. We also present the results of a computational study in which the model, the preprocessing techniques and the algorithm are tested based on data related to the railway stations Arnhem, Hoorn and Utrecht CS in the Netherlands.     

车站咽喉通过能力可视化计算集成系统的研究

在对国内外咽喉道岔通过能力计算方法比较与分析基础上 ,论文提出了车站咽喉通过能力可视化计算集成系统的系统结构和功能设计 ,应用图论和网络优化技术对车站咽喉布置、咽喉及车站作业过程进行抽象建模 ,建立了咽喉作业占用安排网络优化和咽喉作业能力的复合递阶决策模型 .该研究综合运用上述模型、算法、计算机信息处理技术和图形技术 ,可视化模拟咽喉作业情况 ,实现了核心基础数据计算机模拟采集、作业优化安排和最大可实现能力的查定及优化 ,并将结果以图形方式输出 .通过实例验证表明 ,计算结果合理可信 ,可用于车站咽喉能力的评价检验 .     

A survey analysis of service quality for domestic airlines

This paper presents an effective approach for evaluating service quality of domestic passenger airlines by customer surveys. To reflect the inherent subjectiveness and imprecision of the customers' perceptions to the quality levels provided by airlines with respect to multiple service attributes, crisp survey results are represented and processed as fuzzy sets. A fuzzy multicriteria analysis (MA) model is used to formulate the evaluation problem. The model is solved by an effective algorithm which incorporates the decision maker's attitude or preference for customers' assessments on criteria weights and performance ratings. An empirical study of domestic airlines on a highly competitive route in Taiwan is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. The evaluation outcome provides airlines with their internal and external competitive advantages, relative to competitors in terms of customer-perceived quality levels of service.