基于时变Copula模型的 基金收益率相依关系的应用研究

基于时变Copula模型,获得预测方差,确定单个基金收益率序列的边缘分布.利用常见的静态Copula和时变Copula模型对基金收益率序列间两两相依关系进行建模并进行对比分析.应用研究表明,基于MCMC方法的时变Copula模型能更有效地度量基金收益率序列的风险.     

时变Copula下我国寿险公司投资市场风险经济资本测度

随着保险资金投资渠道的放宽,保险公司对于自身资金运用方面的管理显得日益重要,基于此,选取了国债和政府机构债券、企业债、证券投资基金以及股票这四种资产作为研究对象,将收益率低于同期银行存款利率的情形视为损失,结合样本数据进行了经济资本的测度分析.通过对比以往学者的研究,选定了用GARCH-偏正态分布进行收益率的拟合,并运用时变Copula函数进行风险相关性的测量,计算出了不同置信度下,寿险公司投资市场风险的经济资本.结果显示,时变Copula比常数Copula在风险相关性度量方面表现更好.     

基于Pair-Copula-GARCH模型与CVaR的时变投资组合优化

以过去的信息为条件,以一致性风险度量CVaR为优化目标,以组合收益率为约束条件,建立了时变投资组合优化模型,通过基于pair-copula-GARCH模型的蒙特卡洛模拟方法得到未来某时刻收益率的多个可能情景,并引入一个特殊函数实现了投资组合模型的线性化,得到了最优投资组合策略.最后针对提出的模型进行了实例分析.     

金融时变高阶矩建模及其风险测度研究:基于收益率分解的方法

本文基于收益率分解方法,将收益率表示成符号部分和绝对值部分的乘积形式,通过对符号部分、绝对值部分以及这两部分间的相关性分别进行时变性设定,构建了动态收益率分解(DRD)模型来刻画收益率的高阶矩动态特征。该模型能灵活地设置条件偏度和条件峰度的时变演化方式,还能通过对符号部分和绝对值部分间相关性的时变Copula设定来刻画收益率变动的非线性特征,因而使得该模型对收益率的预测具有优势。本文还利用上证综合指数和深证成份指数的收益率数据对DRD模型进行了实证研究,结果表明:两种股指收益率序列均表现出了显著的高阶矩动态特征,条件偏度和条件峰度存在一定程度的波动聚集特征。相较于其他时变高阶矩模型,DRD模型不仅具有更好的样本内模型拟合效果,而且在样本外的风险价值预测和经济价值评价等方面均表现出一定的优越性。     

VaR理论及其在股市周末效应中的应用

本文首先讨论了VaR的教育处方法 ,然后通过实证分析沪市综合指数周一至周五的收益率分布 ,并分别利用历史模拟法、风险矩阵法、t分布法计算出周一至周五相应的VaR值 ,从而得出上海股市在“二、五”效应的结论 ,并发现利用VaR理论在我国的股票市场风险投资中可以很好的度量风险和规避风险 .     

基于时变SJC-Copula对商品期货市场间风险传染的探究

分别选取WIND商品指数和CRB指数作为衡量我国商品期货市场及国际商品期货市场综合价格的指标,利用时变SJC-Copula模型构建两者之间的动态相依结构,通过动态的尾部相关系数来探究我国商品期货市场与国际市场间的尾部相关性.实证结果表明,我国商品期货市场与国际市场间的上尾相关性要强于下尾相关性,即当商品期货价格上涨时,两个市场间更易发生风险传染.     

结构突变下投资者情绪与股市收益间的非线性溢出效应研究

为了深入挖掘投资者情绪与股市收益的非线性溢出效应,本文首先选取消费者信心指数、封闭式基金折价率、换手率、新增开户增长率、市盈率这五个变量作为情绪指数潜在变量,再通过R藤Copula得到各潜在变量的联合分布,进而构造出投资者情绪指数;然后运用ICSS模型对股票指数收益率的状态进行划分,将结构突变点作为虚拟变量纳入到经典的AR-EGARCH波动模型中刻画收益率序列;最后运用时变Copula函数对投资者情绪与股市收益率间的动态非线性溢出效应进行定量测度,以期揭示二者之间的内在规律。研究结果表明:投资者情绪与股市收益间确实存在溢出效应,从长期趋势分析,投资者情绪与股市收益率的相关系数为正,说明投资者情绪与市场收益率之间在长期表现为显著正相关,即投资者情绪对收益率有正向溢出效应,投资者情绪的高涨与悲观同收益率的升高与降低步调一致。然而从短期分析,相关系数的波动范围为0.2至0.35,说明在不同投资环境及市场背景下投资者情绪与市场收益率之间的相关程度并非一成不变,投资者情绪高涨时期,两者间溢出效应也随情绪指数升高,投资者情绪悲观时期两者间溢出效应也降低。     

中国股票市场的日历效应分析

本文以上证指数和深证指数为代表 ,对中国股票市场的日历效应进行实证分析 .主要从以下三个方面加以讨论 :收益率和交易量的均值及方差的日历特征 ;收益率日历特征的相关分析 ;收益率周内各日的转移概率特性     

ARCH族模型对沪市行业指数收益率的实证研究

本文利用ARCH族模型研究沪市行业指数收益率的波动性.通过对各行业指数收益率的分析发现,行业指数收益率是平稳的,但其条件方差是尖峰厚尾的非正态分布且具有明显的ARCH效应.行业指数收益率均具有不同程度"杠杆"效应.外部信息对公用指数和综合指数收益率影响最大.融入相同的风险,它们收益最高.地产指数对外部信息反应迟钝,收益率也不显著.     

基于ARMA-GARCH模型的恒指隐含波动率指数预测及其在期权交易中的应用

基于ARMA-GARCH模型,并结合均值回归效应,溢出效应和周内效应,本文研究了恒指隐含波动率指数(VHSI)能否被预测及预测是否有助于期权投资实践的问题.研究结果验证了香港股市具有均值回归的特性,标准普尔500指数对恒指隐含波动率指数有明显的溢出效应.此外,恒指隐含波动率指数呈现出周一上涨,周五下跌的特征,具有明显的周内效应.最后,本文运用ARMA-GARCH模型对恒指隐含波动率指数进行预测,并结合实际的市场数据做了期权交易模拟.结果显示,ARMA-GARCH模型比ARMA模型更适合对恒指隐含波动率进行建模;考虑了均值回归效应,溢出效应和周内效应之后,ARMAGARCH模型对恒指隐含波动率指数的预测能力显著提高,并且预测结果有助于期权交易获得较好的收益.     

Inducing Stock Screening Rules for Portfolio Construction

This study describes a technique originated from the emerging field of machine learning and demonstrates its effectiveness in stock screening. We have derived screening rules by applying a rule induction method, constructed portfolios using the rules, and evaluated the portfolios' performance using the Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen indexes. Results indicate that regularities among stocks can be identified, and portfolios so constructed outperformed the NYSE Composite index and the S&P 500 over the same period.     

Uniform stability for thermoelastic systems with boundary time-varying delay

In this paper we consider a thermoelastic system with boundary time-varying delay. Using the energy method, we show, under suitable assumptions, that the damping effect through heat conduction is still strong enough to uniformly stabilize the system even in the presence of boundary time-varying delay. Our result improves earlier results existing in the literature.     

Global exponential stability of certain switched systems with time-varying delays

This paper is focused on global exponential stability of certain switched systems with time-varying delays. By using an average dwell time (ADT) approach that is different from the method in [P.H.A. Ngoc, On exponential stability of nonlinear differential systems with time-varying delay, Applied Mathematics Letters 25 (2012) 1208–1213], we establish a new global exponential stability criterion for the switched linear time-delay system under the ADT switching. We also apply this method to a general switched nonlinear time-delay system. A numerical example is given to show the effectiveness of our results.     

An averaging model for chaotic system with periodic time-varying parameter

In this paper, we provide a mathematical justification to explain the dynamics of chaotic system with periodic time-varying parameter which have been illustrated by some of us in a previous paper [1]. Based on an equivalent averaging model, it is proved that such a parametric time-varying system follows the same trajectory of its averaging model, provided that the parameter is varied periodically with a sufficiently high frequency. Some other observations related with this class of chaotic systems are also remarked in this paper.     

Controllability analysis of linear time-varying systems with multiple time delays and impulsive effects

In this paper, the issue of controllability for linear time-varying systems with multiple time delays in the control and impulsive effects is addressed. The solution of such systems based on the variation of parameters is derived. Several sufficient and necessary algebraic conditions for two kinds of controllability, i.e., controllability to the origin and controllability, are derived. The relation among these conditions are established. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methods.     

Estimation of time-varying ARMA models with Markovian changes in regime

In this paper, we consider the estimation of time-varying ARMA models subject to Markovian changes in regime. We give explicit conditions ensuring consistency and asymptotic normality, as well as the limiting covariance matrix, of least squares and quasi-generalized least-squares estimators.     

Formation control for second-order multi-agent systems with time-varying delays under directed topology

In this paper, we investigate a formation control problem for second-order multi-agent systems with directed graph interconnection topologies that contain time-varying coupling delays. By using a special multiple leaders’ framework, sufficient conditions are obtained for both time-invariant and time-varying formations as well as for time-varying formations for trajectory tracking, which guarantees the attainment of the formations is at exponentially converging speeds. Some numerical simulations are also conducted to validate the theoretical results.     

A bi-virus competing model with time-varying susceptibility and repeated infection

This paper introduces a bi-virus model with time-varying susceptibility. The model describes the case that there coexist two viruses and the time-varying susceptibility due to repeated infections. For different parameters, we investigate the stability of various equilibriums. Under appropriate conditions the two viruses show competitive relationship, that is, one virus will eventually become a pandemic, and the other virus will eventually disappear. For this case, we further study the dynamical behavior of virus transmission. The model shows some new phenomena, that is, the outbreak of the virus will be delayed appropriately, giving people an illusion. Finally, we present a numerical example to illustrate the effectiveness of the theoretical results.     

Adaptive scheme for time-varying anticipating synchronization of certain or uncertain chaotic dynamical systems

In this paper, a new type of anticipating synchronization, called time-varying anticipating synchronization, is defined firstly. Then novel adaptive schemes for time-varying anticipating synchronization of certain or uncertain chaotic dynamical systems are designed based on the Lyapunov function and invariance principle. The update gain of coupling strength can be automatically adapted to a suitable strength depending on the initial values and can be properly chosen to adjust the speed of achieving synchronization, so these schemes are analytical and simple to implement in practice. A classical chaotic dynamical system is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive schemes with or without parameter uncertainties.     

Stability analysis for stochastic jump systems with time-varying delay

This paper deals with the mean-square asymptotic stability of stochastic Markovian jump systems with time-varying delay. Based on a new stochastic inequality and convex analysis property, some novel stability conditions are presented. In the derivation, the information of the time-varying delay is retained and the estimation of it by the worst-case enlargement is not involved. Some special cases of the systems under consideration are also investigated. Illustrative examples are given to show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.