REBUILDING THE EASTERN BALTIC COD STOCK UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE (PART II): TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE COSTS OF A MARINE PROTECTED AREA

Abstract This study adds a cost analysis of the Eastern Baltic cod fishery to the existing model presented in Röckmann et al. [2007a] . As cost data on this international fishery do not exist, data from Denmark are extrapolated to the whole international fishery. Additionally, unit and total variable costs are simulated, and the sensitivity to a set of different cost–stock and cost–output elasticities is tested. The study supports preliminary conclusions that a temporary marine reserve policy, which focuses on protecting the Eastern Baltic cod spawning stock in the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) subdivision 25, is a valuable fisheries management tool to (i) rebuild the overexploited Eastern Baltic cod stock and (ii) increase operating profits. The negative effects of climate change can be postponed for at least 20 years—depending on the assumed rate of future climate change. Including costs in the economic analysis does not change the ranking of management policies as proposed in the previous study where costs were neglected.     

BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF EASTERN BALTIC COD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NUTRIENT ENRICHMENT

Abstract The objective of this paper is to study the economic management of Eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua) under the influence of nutrient enrichment. Average nitrogen concentration in the spawning areas during the spawning season of cod stock is chosen to be an indicator of nutrient enrichment. The optimal cod stock is defined using a dynamic bioeconomic model for the cod fisheries. The results show that the current stock level is about half of the estimated optimal stock level and that the current total allowable catch (TAC) is about one‐fourth of the optimal equilibrium yield. The results also indicate that the benefit from a reduction in nitrogen very much depends on the harvest policies. If the TAC is set equal to the optimal equilibrium yield, the benefit of a nitrogen reduction from the 2009 level to the optimal nitrogen level would be about 604 million DKK over a 10‐year time horizon, given a discount rate of 4% per year. However, if a recovery management plan is chosen, the benefit would only be about 49 million DKK over a 10‐year time horizon.     

COMPARING PROACTIVE AND REACTIVE MANAGEMENT: MANAGING A TRANSBOUNDARY FISH STOCK UNDER CHANGING ENVIRONMENT

Environmental change in general, and climate change in particular, can lead to changes in distribution of fish stocks. When such changes involve transboundary fish stocks, the countries sharing the stock need to reconsider their harvesting policies. We investigate the effects of changing stock distribution on the optimal fishing policies in a two players’ noncooperative game. We compare reactive management, under which the manager ignores future distributional shifts (knowingly or unknowingly), with proactive management where the manager considers such shifts in his decisions. A dynamic programming model is developed to identify closed‐loop Nash strategies. We show that the role of two players is symmetric under reactive management but asymmetric under proactive management where managers anticipate future changes in stock ownership. The player losing the stock tends to harvest more aggressively compared to the player gaining the stock who acts more conservatively. Strategic interactions show tendency for complementary actions that can change abruptly during the ownership transition. The differences between management regimes vary from quantitative to qualitative; differences are minimal for stocks with little or no schooling, whereas highly schooling stocks may avoid collapse only under proactive management.     

IS FISHING COMPATIBLE WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION: A STOCHASTIC MODEL WITH AN ELEMENT OF SELF‐PROTECTION

Abstract The purpose of this paper is to introduce the impact of fishing activity on a marine ecosystem. The fishing activity is considered not only through annual harvest but also through a second component, called the degree of protection of the fishery environment. This characterizes the environmental impact of fishing. A stochastic dynamic programming problem is presented in infinite horizon, where a sole owner seeks to maximize a discounted expected profit. The main hypothesis states that the stock–recruitment relationship is stochastic and that both components of the fishing activity have an impact on the probability law of the state of the fishery environment. The optimal fishing policy is obtained and compared with standard models. This optimal policy has the following properties: is not a constant escapement policy and indicates an element of self‐protection by the fishery manager. The paper ends with a discussion on the existence of degrees of protection of the fishery environment that take into account the environmental conservation and preservation of economic activity.     

THE VALUE OF SHORT‐RUN CLIMATE FORECASTS IN MANAGING THE COASTAL COHO SALMON (ONCORHYNCHUS KISUTCH) FISHERY IN WASHINGTON STATE

ABSTRACT. . In recent years our understanding of the intricate connections between climate variability, marine and freshwater environmental conditions and the responses of fish stocks has improved considerably. With predictable relationships between the environment and stock abundance, fishery managers should be able to forecast variation in stock survival and recruitment. Such forecasts present an opportunity for increasing the economic value of fisheries and for achieving other management objectives, such as stock conservation and maintenance of population diversity. After describing a 4‐step framework for addressing the question ‘What is a forecast worth?’ in a fishery decision‐making context, we introduce the management system for Washington's coastal coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) fishery. Then we apply the 4‐step framework to estimate the value of improved run size forecasts in the annual harvest management of coho salmon in Washington State. Our principal analytical tool is a stochastic simulation model that incorporates the main characteristics of the fishery. The paper concludes with a discussion of opportunities and constraints to the use of climate‐based forecasts in fishery management on various spatial and temporal scales, and we consider the challenges associated with forecasting variations in fish stock size caused by shifts in climate and related ocean conditions.     

EVALUATING ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR ABALONE

Industry participation in co‐management has become a cornerstone of assessing the blacklip abalone, Halitois rubra, fisheries of South‐Eastern Australia. Engaging industry in developing and implementing management strategies is aimed at stemming recent trends of stock depletion and reduced harvest. An alternative to the current strategy for determining harvests is under consideration. A central question is: which management strategy is most likely to maintain sufficient biomass to produce consistent harvest rates into the future? This question is addressed using a Systems Dynamics modeling approach. We evaluated the two strategies of harvest management planning under (i) unchanging environmental conditions and (ii) following a high‐mortality event. To assess the performance of each strategy, an existing abalone model was used to estimate yield and mature biomass over three decades (>5 generations). A strategy using mean length of commercial catch as a novel performance measure generally provided a better path to recovery from the high‐mortality event than the current harvest threshold strategy.     

SHARING THE NORTHEAST ARCTIC COD: POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

ABSTRACT. The Northeast Arctic cod inhabits the exclusive economic zones of Norway and Russia and migrates extensively between these zones. The stock is shared evenly between the two countries, with a small allocation to third countries. Higher temperatures in the Barents Sea and the Norwegian Sea are expected to affect the stock, probably increasing its size and leading to a larger share inhabiting the Russian economic zone. It is also conceivable that some spawning will begin to take place off the coast of Russia in addition to the spawning that now occurs exclusively in Norwegian waters. This paper looks at the implication of this for the division of the stock between the two countries. It is found that a greater presence of the stock in the Russian zone would strengthen rather than weaken the Norwegian bargaining position if the unit cost of fish is not sensitive to the size of the stock. If, on the other hand, the fishing costs are proportional to fishing mortality, Norway's position would be weakened almost on par with the fall in its share of the stock. The paper uses a Beverton‐Holt year class model with a Ricker recruitment function. The recruitment function is hump‐shaped, implying that a too large spawning stock is harmful for recruitment. Strong density‐dependence in the survival of eggs and larvae is a possible reason for this. It is shown that, for a stock being limited by carrying capacity at the pre‐recruit stage rather than the post‐recruit stage, one may expect a strongly asymmetric curve for sustainable yield as a function of total biomass. The biomass of an exploited population might possibly exceed the biomass of a pristine population under those circumstances.     

A NEW APPROACH TO SIMULATING FISHERIES DATA FOR POLICY MAKING

The main objective of natural resource management is to create social and economic value while maintaining sustainability. In this paper, we introduce an enhanced method for simulating high‐dimensional time series and apply it to Icelandic fishing resource management data. The methodology can be used in many contexts, but is particularly appropriate for simulating the many complex interactions involved in natural resource management. The simulations can be used to explore the sensitivity of resource management policies to future changes using an affinity parameter. Affinity, qualitatively similar to correlation, is a ordinal measure between –1 and +1 that models one's belief how much the future might behave like, or different from, the past. The main appeal of the method is its reliance on data and relative independence from assumptions about that data. In the paper, we apply it on data on Icelandic cod with encouraging results.     

POSSIBILITIES AND LIMITATIONS OF USING HISTORIC PROVENANCE TESTS TO INFER FOREST SPECIES GROWTH RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE

Abstract. Under projected changes in global climate, the growth and survival of existing forests will depend on their ability to adjust physiologically in response to environmental change. Quantifying their capacity to adjust and whether the response is species‐ or population‐specific is important to guide forest management strategies. New analyses of historic provenance tests data are yielding relevant insights about these responses. Yet, differences between the objectives used to design the experiments and current objectives impose limitations to what can be learned from them. Our objectives are (i) to discuss the possibilities and limitations of using such data to quantify growth responses to changes in climate and (ii) to present a modeling approach that creates a species‐ and population‐specific model. We illustrate the modeling approach for Larix occidentalis Nutt. We conclude that the reanalysis of historic provenance tests data can lead to the identification of species that have population‐specific growth responses to changes in climate, provide estimates of optimum transfer distance for populations and species, and provide estimates of growth changes under different climate change scenarios. Using mixed‐effects modeling techniques is a sound statistical approach to overcome some of the limitations of the data.     

THE ECONOMICS OF CONFLICTING INTERESTS: NORTHERN BALTIC SALMON FISHERY ADAPTION TO GRAY SEAL ABUNDANCE

The successful conservation of gray seals has led to increased seal‐induced damage to the Atlantic salmon fisheries of the Baltic Sea. This paper addresses the conflict between the conservation of a formerly endangered species, the gray seal, and professional fishermen, whose livelihoods are affected by both seal‐induced damage and salmon fisheries management. We develop a bioeconomic model that incorporates the age structure of Atlantic salmon and gray seal populations. To determine the social optimum, we maximize the discounted net present value of the trap net fishery, taking into account the presence of seals in the form of seal‐induced losses, which we describe using a damage function. By choosing the optimal combination of fishing gear over time, we obtain the socially optimal fishing efforts, salmon stock size, and salmon catch. In addition, we study the private effects of introducing a technology subsidy aimed at mitigating the seal‐salmon conflict. The results suggest that technological adaptation would effectively reduce the cause of the conflict, while a technology subsidy encouraging such adaptation would shift the economic responsibility from individual fishermen to the broader public.     

YEAR AROUND CLOSED AREAS AS A MANAGEMENT TOOL

Year around closed areas or refuges as management mechanisms for controlling fishing mortality are explored using a two-component, spatial model with movement between areas. The model assesses the fate of a cohort when only a portion of it is vulnerable to fishing. The yield per recruit and spawning stock biomass per recruit are compared for equivalent amounts of fishing effort with and without a refuge. The results indicate that the institution of a closed area can lead to substantial increases in spawning stock biomass realized from a cohort and, as such, could be a viable short-term management option to reduce overall fishing mortality on an overexploited stock. Yield per recruit with a refuge is a complex function of the size of the refuge, fishing mortality rates and movement rates. The results suggest that the proportional loss in yield per recruit will be less than the initial proportion of the cohort contained within the refuge. In some instances, the yield per recruit with a refuge can exceed the yield per recruit without one, but the net increases are usually small. The size of the refuge needed to achieve a specified gain in spawning biomass depends upon the mobility of the fish. Higher movement rates require a larger refuge to achieve the same increase, but any loss in yield per recruit will be less even though the refuge is larger. The assumptions underlying the model are discussed, and the importance of information on movement rates for assessing the possible effect of closed areas is stressed.     

A MODEL OF TROPICAL MARINE RESERVE‐FISHERY LINKAGES

ABSTRACT. The excessive and unsustainable exploitation of our marine resources has led to the promotion of marine reserves as a fisheries management tool. Marine reserves, areas in which fishing is restricted or prohibited, can offer opportunities for the recovery of exploited stock and fishery enhancement. In this paper we examine the contribution of fully protected tropical marine reserves to fishery enhancement by modeling marine reserve‐fishery linkages. The consequences of reserve establishment on the long‐run equilibrium fish biomass and fishery catch levels are evaluated. In contrast to earlier models this study highlights the roles of both adult (and juvenile) fish migration and larval dispersal between the reserve and fishing grounds by employing a spawner‐recruit model. Uniform larval dispersal, uniform larval retention and complete larval retention combined with zero, moderate and high fish migration scenarios are analyzed in turn. The numerical simulations are based on Mombasa Marine National Park, Kenya, a fully protected coral reef marine reserve comprising approximately 30% of former fishing grounds. Simulation results suggest that the establishment of a fully protected marine reserve will always lead to an increase in total fish biomass. If the fishery is moderately to heavily exploited, total fishery catch will be greater with the reserve in all scenarios of fish and larval movement. If the fishery faces low levels of exploitation, catches can be optimized without a reserve but with controlled fishing effort. With high fish migration from the reserve, catches are optimized with the reserve. The optimal area of the marine reserve depends on the exploitation rate in the neighboring fishing grounds. For example, if exploitation is maintained at 40%, the ‘optimal’ reserve size would be 10%. If the rate increases to 50%, then the reserve needs to be 30% of the management area in order to maximize catches. However, even in lower exploitation fisheries (below 40%), a small reserve (up to 20%) provides significantly higher gains in fish biomass than losses in catch. Marine reserves are a valuable fisheries management tool. To achieve maximum fishery benefits they should be complemented by fishing effort controls.     

HARVESTING ECONOMIC MODELS AND CATCH‐TO‐BIOMASS DEPENDENCE: THE CASE OF SMALL PELAGIC FISH

Abstract In the case of small pelagic fish, it seems reasonable to consider harvest functions depending nonlinearly on fishing effort and fish stock. Indeed, empirical evidence about these fish species suggests that marginal catch does not necessarily react in a linear way neither to changes in fishing effort nor in fish stock levels. This is in contradiction with traditional fishery economic models where catch‐to‐input marginal productivities are normally assumed to be constant. While allowing for nonlinearities in both catch‐to‐effort and catch‐to‐stock parameters, this paper extends the traditional single‐stock harvesting economic model by focusing on the dependence of the stationary solutions upon the nonlinear catch‐to‐stock parameter. Thus, we analyze equilibrium responses to changes in this parameter, which in turn may be triggered either by climatic or technological change. Given the focus in this study on the case of small pelagic fish, the analysis considers positive but small values for the catch‐to‐stock parameter.     

STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION FOR MULTISPECIES FISHERIES IN THE BARENTS SEA

We present a multispecies stochastic model that suggests optimal fishing policy for two species in a three‐species predator–prey ecosystem in the Barents Sea. We employ stochastic dynamic programming to solve a three‐dimensional model, in which the catch is optimized by using a multispecies feedback strategy. Applying the model to the cod, capelin, and herring ecosystem in the Barents Sea shows that the optimal catch for the stochastic interaction model is more conservative than that implied by the deterministic model. We also find that stochasticity has a stronger effect on the optimal exploitation policy for prey (capelin) than for predator (cod).     

STOPPING RULES AND THE CONTROL OF STOCK POLLUTANTS

A stock pollutant is defined as a residual waste that might accumulate over time. This paper examines some of the important distinctions between degradable and nondegradable stock pollutants and between nondegradable stock pollutants with known versus uncertain environmental cost. The latter case is examined using the more recent literature on stochastic control with Brownian motion. The presence of irreversibility and uncertainty is known to lead to more conservative investment rules and places a value on the preservation of options. In the case of a nondegradable stock pollutant with Brownian environmental cost, options are preserved by stopping accumulation at a lower level than in the corresponding certainty-equivalent problem. The model presented in this paper permits the derivation of closed-form stopping rules. For a simple numerical problem, the optimal nondegradable stock with Brownian environmental cost was 20 to 45 percent lower than the optimal level with known environmental cost. The empirical study of an actual nondegradable stock pollutant will require time series data on private and social cost in order to estimate drift and variance parameters which will influence the actual extent to which the optimal stock is less than the certainty-equivalent stock.     

INDIVIDUAL‐BASED MODELS AND THE MANAGEMENT OF SHOREBIRD POPULATIONS

Abstract Individual‐based models (IBMs) predict how animal populations will be affected by changes in their environment by modeling the responses of fitness‐maximizing individuals to environmental change and by calculating how their aggregate responses change the average fitness of individuals and thus the demographic rates, and therefore size of the population. This paper describes how the need to develop a new approach to make such predictions was identified in the mid‐1970s following work done to predict the effect of building a freshwater reservoir on part of the intertidal feeding areas of the shorebirds Charadrii that overwinter on the Wash, a large embayment on the east coast of England. The paper describes how the approach was developed and tested over 20 years (1976–1995) on a population of European oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus eating mussels Mytilus edulis on the Exe estuary in Devon, England. The paper goes on to describe how individual‐based modeling has been applied over the last 10 years to a wide range of environmental issues and to many species of shorebirds and wildfowl in a number of European countries. Although it took 20 years to develop the approach for 1 bird species on 1 estuary, ways have been found by which it can now be applied quite rapidly to a wide range of species, at spatial scales ranging from 1 estuary to the whole continent of Europe. This can now be done within the time period typically allotted to environmental impact assessments involving coastal bird populations in Europe. The models are being used routinely to predict the impact on the fitness of coastal shorebirds and wildfowl of habitat loss from (i) development, such as building a port over intertidal flats; (ii) disturbance from people, raptors, and aircraft; (iii) harvesting shellfish; and (iv) climate change and any associated rise in sea level. The model has also been used to evaluate the probable effectiveness of mitigation measures aimed at ameliorating the impact of such environmental changes on the birds. The first steps are now being taken to extend the approach to diving sea ducks and farmland birds during the nonbreeding season. The models have been successful in predicting the observed behavior and mortality rates in winter of shorebirds on a number of European estuaries, and some of the most important of these tests are described. These successful tests of model predictions raise confidence that the model can be used to advise policy makers concerned with the management of the coast and its important bird populations.     

ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY IN A MULTISPECIES AGE‐STRUCTURED ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK: THE EFFECTS OF DATA LIMITATIONS AND MODEL ASSUMPTIONS

Performance of a multispecies age‐structured assessment (MSASA) model in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) relative to changes in data and model assumptions was examined through simulation exercises. Species included arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus), walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis), and Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus). Age‐specific predation mortality was estimated as a flexible function of predator and prey abundances and fitted to diet data. Simulated data sets were constructed by applying random error to estimates of catch, survey, and diet data from an operating model, whose structure was identical to that of the estimating model. Simulations explored the effects of data variability, mismatched assumptions regarding model structure, and lack of diet data on model performance. Model misspecification and uninformative diet data had the greatest influence on model performance. Given the current emphasis on the development of ecosystem‐based models and management, prioritizing the rigorous sampling of diet data would best facilitate the development of predation models useful to management agencies.     

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON LOBLOLLY PINE PLANTATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES

Abstract Few studies have empirically examined climate change impacts on managed forests in the southern United States. In this paper, we use the U.S. Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis Database to fit two growth models across the South and apply the four Hadley III climate scenarios developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report to project future growth and site productivity on loblolly pine plantations. The static growth model provides a direct test of whether a significant climate influence on forest growth can be statistically derived, while the dynamic growth model estimates climate effects through site productivity. Results indicate considerable spatial variation in potential future growth and productivity change on loblolly pine plantations due to climate change in the southern United States, while overall regional effects are projected to be marginal. The pattern of climate change impacts is consistent across the growth models and climate scenarios. These findings have several implications for climate change adaptation policies.     

气候政策的经济环境效应分析与比较—基于碳税、许可交易和总量控制的动态微分博弈

基于产品差别化假设,建立双寡头动态微分博弈模型,比较碳税和许可交易以及总量控制3种气候政策的经济环境效应.研究发现,不同气候政策对两国的经济效应不同.进一步研究还发现,在企业产品差别化竞争时,从碳排放流量来看,碳税政策和许可交易政策与总量控制政策之间没有严格的优劣之分;碳排放存量对碳税政策最敏感.从碳存量对政策的边际影响来看,许可交易政策与总量控制政策是相同的,而碳税政策与之相反.当两国生产的产品完全同质时,从均衡碳排放流量和碳排放存量来看,许可交易政策最优,总量控制政策次之,碳税政策最差.若政府单纯以控制碳排放量为目的,许可交易政策是最佳选择.