不完全金融市场货币平衡存在性(英)

本文研究不完全金融市场中具有货币政策的货币经济一般平衡存在性．我们只考虑纯金融市场，允许卖空，金融市场是不完全的；一些商品流不可能由交易策略得到．具有连续、弱凸性、严格单调和完全偏好，严格正初始占有和红利过程的经济则存在货币平衡．     

Existence of general equilibrium for stochastic economy with infinite-dimensional commondity space and incomplete financial markets

This paper analyses the general equilibrium existence problem in a (finite) discretetime economy with infinite-dimensional commodity space and inComplete financial markets. It isassumed that the trading takes place in the sequence of spot markets and futures markets for sccurities payable in units of account. Unlimited short-selling in securities is allowed. The existence of such an equilibrium is proved under the following conditions: Mackey continuous,weakly convex ,strictly monotone,complete preferences and strictly positive endowments.     

Asset Pricing under Progressive Taxes and Existence of General Equilibrium

This paper shows that the existence of general equilibrium in a two-period economy with financial markets and progressive anonymous tax system is not at all problematic, provided securities are purely financial. We explore the concepts of weakly and strongly arbitrage-free security price for return and tax system, and prove arbitrage-free asset pricing theorems without short-sale restrictions. A general equilibrium is a set of current and future prices (contingent on uncertain events) and a set of individual plans such that all markets are cleared. The existence of such an equilibrium is proved under the following conditions: continuous, weakly convex, strictly monotone, complete preferences and strictly positive endowments.     

Duality and martingales: a stochastic programming perspective on contingent claims

The hedging of contingent claims in the discrete time, discrete state case is analyzed from the perspective of modeling the hedging problem as a stochastic program. Application of conjugate duality leads to the arbitrage pricing theorems of financial mathematics, namely the equivalence of absence of arbitrage and the existence of a probability measure that makes the price process into a martingale. The model easily extends to the analysis of options pricing when modeling risk management concerns and the impact of spreads and margin requirements for writers of contingent claims. However, we find that arbitrage pricing in incomplete markets fails to model incentives to buy or sell options. An extension of the model to incorporate pre-existing liabilities and endowments reveals the reasons why buyers and sellers trade in options. The model also indicates the importance of financial equilibrium analysis for the understanding of options prices in incomplete markets. Received: June 5, 2000 / Accepted: July 12, 2001?Published online December 6, 2001     

Asymptotic asset pricing and bubbles

We define the concept of asymptotic superreplication, and prove a duality principle of asset pricing for sequences of financial markets (e.g., weakly converging financial markets and large financial markets) based on contiguous sequences of equivalent local martingale measures. This provides a pricing mechanism to calculate the fundamental value of a financial asset in the asymptotic market. We introduce the notion of asymptotic bubbles by showing that this fundamental value can be strictly lower than the current price of the asset. In the case of weakly converging markets, we show that this fundamental value is equal to an expectation of the terminal value of the asset in the weak-limit market. From a practical perspective, we relate the asymptotic superreplication price to a limit of quantile-hedging prices. This shows that even when a price process is a true martingale, it can have properties similar to a bubble, up to a set of small probability. For practical applications, we give examples of weakly converging discrete-time models (e.g. some GARCH models) and large financial models that present bubbles.     

具有比例摩擦金融市场的一般经济均衡与资产定价(英文)

本文建立具有比例摩擦金融市场的简单两时期模型．经济人具有均值－方差偏好,并且在交易金融资产的过程中支付交易费用．本文证明了两种金融资产的一般经济均衡与资产定价的基本估值公式．     

A utility maximization approach to hedging in incomplete markets

In this paper we introduce the notion of portfolio optimization by maximizing expected local utility. This concept is related to maximization of expected utility of consumption but, contrary to this common approach, the discounted financial gains are consumed immediately. In a general continuous-time market optimal portfolios are obtained by pointwise solution of equations involving the semimartingale characteristics of the underlying securities price process. The new concept is applied to hedging problems in frictionless, incomplete markets.     

Convex analysis and financial equilibrium

Convexity has long had an important role in economic theory, but some recent developments have featured it all the more in problems of equilibrium. Here the tools of convex analysis are applied to a basic model of incomplete financial markets in which assets are traded and money can be lent or borrowed between the present and future. The existence of an equilibrium is established with techniques that include bounds derived from the duals to problems of utility maximization. Composite variational inequalities furnish the modeling platform. Models with and without short-selling are handled, moreover in the absence of any requirement that agents must initially have a positive amount of every asset, as is typical in equilibrium work in economics.     

Modeling Capital Gains Taxes for Trading Strategies of Infinite Variation

In this article, we show that the payment flow of a linear tax on trading gains from a security with a semimartingale price process can be constructed for all càglàd and adapted trading strategies. It is characterized as the unique continuous extension of the tax payments for elementary strategies w.r.t. the convergence “uniformly in probability.” In this framework, we prove that under quite mild assumptions dividend payoffs have almost surely a negative effect on investor’s after-tax wealth if the riskless interest rate is always positive. In addition, we give an example for tax-efficient strategies for which the tax payment flow can be computed explicitly.     

On securitization,market completion and equilibrium risk transfer

We propose an equilibrium framework within which to price financial securities written on non-tradable underlyings such as temperature indices. We analyze a financial market with a finite set of agents whose preferences are described by a convex dynamic risk measure generated by the solution of a backward stochastic differential equation. The agents are exposed to financial and non-financial risk factors. They can hedge their financial risk in the stock market and trade a structured derivative whose payoff depends on both financial and external risk factors. We prove an existence and uniqueness of equilibrium result for derivative prices and characterize the equilibrium market price of risk in terms of a solution to a non-linear BSDE.     

Incomplete financial markets model with nominal assets: Variational approach

We deal with the analysis of the general equilibrium model with incomplete financial markets and nominal assets. We assume that there are 2 periods of time, say today and tomorrow. We define a consumption, portfolio holding, commodity and asset price vector as an equilibrium vector associated with a given economy if at those prices and economies households maximize utility under a budget constraints and markets clear. While the path breaking proofs of existence by Cass [6] and Werner [25] use a fixed point argument, we provide an independent existence proof in terms of variational inequalities (about the variational approach for the analysis of general equilibrium models see for example [9] and [10]). The analysis presented in this paper indicates that the variational inequality approach promises to be applicable in many specifications of the incomplete market model.     

An investigation of stock price dynamics in emerging markets

The emergence of stock markets in former centrally planned economies poses a significant problem to financial economists and policy makers in that price movements in these markets are not well explained by conventional capital theory. The opening of stock markets brings about a new equilibrium value P̂ for the firm. Shares are floated on an estimate of P̂, and buyers of these shares and individuals trading in the secondary market are also obliged to do so on the basis of their estimates of this magnitude. At any time, the market price of the firm's shares then reflects the market's best guess of what its value would be in the new equilibrium, and information on which to calculate estimates become more readily available as the stock market matures. This paper presents a stochastic price model which takes all of these factors into consideration. The model also provides a theoretical foundation underlying the pronounced trends of prices in emerging stock markets, and explains why they appear to be so volatile. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk-neutral valuation with infinitely many trading dates

The first Fundamental Theorem of Asset Pricing establishes the equivalence between the absence of arbitrage in financial markets and the existence of Equivalent Martingale Measures, if appropriate conditions hold. Since the theorem may fail when dealing with infinitely many trading dates, this paper draws on the A.A. Lyapunov Theorem in order to retrieve the equivalence for complete markets such that the Sharpe Ratio is adequately bounded.     

具有不完全信息的内部交易动态博弈

在Kyle模型中的线性均衡假设进行了修正的基础上,针对内部交易者只具有资产价值不完全信息情况,建立两期风险厌恶型内部交易均衡模型,并求得该模型的子博弈纳什均衡解.由此发现资产价值不完信息中噪音对市场干扰程度愈小(波动程度愈小),就愈有利于内部交易者的收益;内部交易者的交易就愈活跃;交易均衡价格包含资产价值信息就愈多.     

Variational Formulation of a General Equilibrium Model with Incomplete Financial Markets and Numeraire Assets: Existence

We present a general equilibrium model with incomplete financial markets and numeraire assets. We assume that there are 2 periods of time, say today and tomorrow. In period 0, households exchange goods and assets and then consumption takes place; in period 1, one of S possible states of nature occurs. In each of them, assets pay their returns, which are measured in units of a given physical good, i.e., the numeraire commodity; households exchange goods; finally, consumption takes place. We define a consumption, portfolio holding, commodity and asset price vector as an equilibrium vector associated with a given economy, if at those prices and economies households maximize, and market clears. While the existence proof by Geneakoplos and Polemarchakis (Essays in honor of K.J. Arrow, vol 3, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 65–95, 1986) uses a fixed point argument, we provide an independent existence result in terms of variational inequalities. That approach allows us to get the desired existence result under some different and more general or realistic assumptions than those usually made in the literature.     

A General Benchmark Model for Stochastic Jump Sizes

Abstract

Under few technical assumptions and allowing for the absence of an equivalent martingale measure, we show how to price and hedge in a sequence of incomplete markets driven by Wiener noise and a marked point process. We investigate the structure of market prices of risk as markets become approximately complete and consider the limits of traded securities, characterizing explicitly the growth optimal portfolio and investigating arbitrage and diversification in such markets.     

Hedging of game options in discrete markets with transaction costs

Game options introduced in [10] in 2000 were studied, by now, mostly in frictionless both complete and incomplete markets. In complete markets the fair price of a game option coincides with the value of an appropriate Dynkin's game, whereas in markets with friction and in incomplete ones there is a range of arbitrage free prices and superhedging comes into the picture. Here we consider game options in general discrete time markets with transaction costs and construct backward and forward induction algorithms for the computation of their prices and superhedging strategies from both seller's (upper arbitrage free price) and buyer's (lower arbitrage free price) points of view extending to the game options case most of the results from [12].     

Price bounds of mortality-linked security in incomplete insurance market

This study investigates reasonable price bounds for mortality-linked securities when the issuer has only a partial hedging ability. The price bounds are established by minimizing the difference between the benchmark price and the replicating portfolio cost subject to the gain–loss ratio of excess payoff of the mortality-linked securities. In contrast to the previous studies, the assumptions of no-arbitrage pricing and utility-based pricing are not fully employed in this study because of the incompleteness of the insurance securitization market. Instead, a framework including three insurance basis assets is constructed to search for the price bounds of mortality-linked securities and use the Swiss Re mortality catastrophe bond, issued in 2003, as a numerical example. The proposed price bounds are valuable for setting bid–asked spreads and coupon premiums, and establishing trading strategies in the raising mortality securitization markets.     

Chance and necessity in sociological theory

This paper proposes a mathematical model of financial markets as networks. The model examines the effect of network structure on market behavior (price volatility and trading volume). In the model, investors are arrayed in various network configurations through which they gather information to make trading decisions. The basic network considered is a chain graph with two parameters, number of investors (n) and the length of time in which information is transmitted (k). Closed‐form expressions for price volatility and expected trading volume are provided. The model is generalized to more complex networks, focusing on the hub‐and‐spoke network. The network configurations analyzed do not represent the real (and unknown) communication network among investors, but predictions from the model are consistent with price and volume patterns observed in sociological and economic research on financial markets. The main result is that network structure alone influences price volatility and expected trading volume even though investors are homogeneous and the information introduced into the system is unbiased and random. This result suggests that the structure of the real communication network among investors may influence market behavior.     

The Dynamic Interaction of Speculation and Diversification

A discrete time model of a financial market is developed, in which heterogeneous interacting groups of agents allocate their wealth between two risky assets and a riskless asset. In each period each group formulates its demand for the risky assets and the risk‐free asset according to myopic mean‐variance maximizazion. The market consists of two types of agents: fundamentalists, who hold an estimate of the fundamental values of the risky assets and whose demand for each asset is a function of the deviation of the current price from the fundamental, and chartists, a group basing their trading decisions on an analysis of past returns. The time evolution of the prices is modelled by assuming the existence of a market maker, who sets excess demand of each asset to zero at the end of each trading period by taking an offsetting long or short position, and who announces the next period prices as functions of the excess demand for each asset and with a view to long‐run market stability. The model is reduced to a seven‐dimensional nonlinear discrete‐time dynamical system, that describes the time evolution of prices and agents' beliefs about expected returns, variances and correlation. The unique steady state of the model is determined and the local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium is analysed, as a function of the key parameters that characterize agents' behaviour. In particular it is shown that when chartists update their expectations sufficiently fast, then the stability of the equilibrium is lost through a supercritical Neimark–Hopf bifurcation, and self‐sustained price fluctuations along an attracting limit cycle appear in one or both markets. Global analysis is also performed, by using numerical techniques, in order to understand the role played by the chartists' behaviour in the transition to a regime characterized by irregular oscillatory motion and coexistence of attractors. It is also shown how changes occurring in one market may affect the price dynamics of the alternative risky asset, as a consequence of the dynamic updating of agents' portfolios.