Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA

Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general.     

Developments in inflationary cosmology

This talk presents some recent work that has been done in inflationary cosmology. First a brief review is given of the inflation scenario and its basic models. After that, one of the main problems in developing inflationary models has been the requirement of a very flat inflation potential. In solving this problem, supersymmetry has played a major role, and the reasons will be discussed and a specific example of the SUSY hybrid model will be examined. Some problems introduced by SUSY such as the η and gravitino problems will then be discussed. Then in a different direction, the quintessential inflation model will be examined as a proposal where a single scalar field plays the role of both the inflaton at early time and the dark energy field later. The final topic covered is developments in understanding dissipation and particle production processes during the inflationary phase.      

Linear inflation from running kinetic term in supergravity

We propose a new class of inflation models in which the coefficient of the inflaton kinetic term rapidly changes with energy scale. This naturally occurs especially if the inflaton moves over a long distance during inflation as in the case of large-scale inflation. The peculiar behavior of the kinetic term opens up a new way to construct an inflation model. As a concrete example we construct a linear inflation model in supergravity. It is straightforward to build a chaotic inflation model with a fractional power along the same line. Interestingly, the potential takes a different form after inflation because of the running kinetic term.     

Multiple time scales and the empirical models for stochastic volatility

The most common stochastic volatility models such as the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU), the Heston, the exponential OU (ExpOU) and Hull–White models define volatility as a Markovian process. In this work we check the applicability of the Markovian approximation at separate times scales and will try to answer the question which of the stochastic volatility models indicated above is the most realistic. To this end we consider the volatility at both short (a few days) and long (a few months) time scales as a Markovian process and estimate for it the coefficients of the Kramers–Moyal expansion using the data for Dow-Jones Index. It has been found that the empirical data allow to take only the first two coefficients of expansion to be non-zero that define form of the volatility stochastic differential equation of Itô. It proved to be that for the long time scale the empirical data support the ExpOU model. At the short time scale the empirical model coincides with ExpOU model for the small volatility quantities only.     

Holographic cosmology from a system of M2–M5 branes

In this paper, we analyze the holographic cosmology using a M2–M5 brane configuration. In this configuration, a M2-brane will be placed in between a M5-brane and an anti-M5-brane. The M2-brane will act as a channel for energy to flow from an anti-M5-brane to a M5-brane, and this will increase the degrees of freedom on the M5-brane causing inflation. The inflation will end when the M5-brane and anti-M5-brane get separated. However, at a later stage the distance between the M5-brane and the anti-M5-bran can reduce and this will cause the formation of tachyonic states. These tachyonic states will again open a bridge between the M5-branes and the anti-M5-branes, which will cause further acceleration of the universe.     

Hybrid natural low scale inflation

We discuss the phenomenological implications of Hybrid Natural Inflation models in which the inflaton is a pseudo-Goldstone boson but inflation is terminated by a second scalar field. A feature of the scheme is that the scale of breaking of the Goldstone symmetry can be lower than the Planck scale and so gravitational corrections are under control. We show that, for supersymmetric models, the scale of inflation can be chosen anywhere between the Lyth upper bound and a value close to the electroweak breaking scale. The observed density perturbations and spectral index are readily obtained by the choice of the free parameters. The tensor to scalar ratio and the spectral tilt are extremely small.     

Does inflation provide natural initial conditions for the universe

If our universe underwent inflation, its entropy during the inflationary phase was substantially lower than it is today. Because a low-entropy state is less likely to be chosen randomly than a high-entropy one, inflation is unlikely to arise through randomly-chosen initial conditions. To resolve this puzzle, we examine the notion of a natural state for the universe, and argue that it is a nearly-empty spacetime. If empty space has a small vacuum energy, however, inflation can begin spontaneously in this background. This scenario explains why a universe like ours is likely to have begun via a period of inflation, and also provides an origin for the cosmological arrow of time. This work was supported in part by the U.S. Dept. of Energy, the National Science Foundation, the NDSEG Fellowship, and the David and Lucile Packard Foundation. Second Award in the 2005 Essay Competition of the Gravity Research Foundation. - Ed.     

Does money matter in inflation forecasting?

This paper provides the most fully comprehensive evidence to date on whether or not monetary aggregates are valuable for forecasting US inflation in the early to mid 2000s. We explore a wide range of different definitions of money, including different methods of aggregation and different collections of included monetary assets. In our forecasting experiment we use two nonlinear techniques, namely, recurrent neural networks and kernel recursive least squares regression—techniques that are new to macroeconomics. Recurrent neural networks operate with potentially unbounded input memory, while the kernel regression technique is a finite memory predictor. The two methodologies compete to find the best fitting US inflation forecasting models and are then compared to forecasts from a naïve random walk model. The best models were nonlinear autoregressive models based on kernel methods. Our findings do not provide much support for the usefulness of monetary aggregates in forecasting inflation. Beyond its economic findings, our study is in the tradition of physicists’ long-standing interest in the interconnections among statistical mechanics, neural networks, and related nonparametric statistical methods, and suggests potential avenues of extension for such studies.     

A comparison of 2D and 3D digital image correlation for a membrane under inflation

Three-dimensional (3D) digital image correlation (DIC) is becoming widely used to characterize the behavior of structures undergoing 3D deformations. However, the use of 3D-DIC can be challenging under certain conditions, such as high magnification, and therefore small depth of field, or a highly controlled environment with limited access for two-angled cameras. The purpose of this study is to compare 2D-DIC and 3D-DIC for the same inflation experiment and evaluate whether 2D-DIC can be used when conditions discourage the use of a stereo-vision system. A latex membrane was inflated vertically to 5.41 kPa (reference pressure), then to 7.87 kPa (deformed pressure). A two-camera stereo-vision system acquired top-down images of the membrane, while a single camera system simultaneously recorded images of the membrane in profile. 2D-DIC and 3D-DIC were used to calculate horizontal (in the membrane plane) and vertical (out of the membrane plane) displacements, and meridional strain. Under static conditions, the baseline uncertainty in horizontal displacement and strain were smaller for 3D-DIC than 2D-DIC. However, the opposite was observed for the vertical displacement, for which 2D-DIC had a smaller baseline uncertainty. The baseline absolute error in vertical displacement and strain were similar for both DIC methods, but it was larger for 2D-DIC than 3D-DIC for the horizontal displacement. Under inflation, the variability in the measurements were larger than under static conditions for both DIC methods. 2D-DIC showed a smaller variability in displacements than 3D-DIC, especially for the vertical displacement, but a similar strain uncertainty. The absolute difference in the average displacements and strain between 3D-DIC and 2D-DIC were in the range of the 3D-DIC variability. Those findings suggest that 2D-DIC might be used as an alternative to 3D-DIC to study the inflation response of materials under certain conditions.     

Primordial curvature perturbation during and at the end of multi-field inflation

We study the generation of the primordial curvature perturbation in multi-field inflation. Considering both the evolution of the perturbation during inflation and the effects generated at the end of inflation, we present a general formula for the curvature perturbation. We provide the analytic expressions of the power spectrum, spectral tilt and non-Gaussianity for the separable potentials of two inflaton scalars, and apply them to some specific models.     

Effects of adopting inflation targeting regimes on inflation variability

This paper investigates whether inflation-targeting programs have altered the pattern of inflation and its variability for five developed countries and four emerging economies implementing inflation-targeting programs. A GARCH specification is used to model inflation variability, which accounts for public perception of the future levels of inflation variability—conditional variance. We could not find lower conditional inflation expectations except for Australia, Chile and Sweden under various specifications. Moreover, the conditional variance decreases only for Chile and the UK. Therefore, the empirical support for the lower inflation and its variability for the inflation targeting regimes is limited.     

Breaks or long memory behavior: An empirical investigation

Are structural break models true switching models or long memory processes? The answer to this question remains ambiguous. In recent years, many papers have dealt with this problem. Some studies have shown that, under specific conditions, switching models and long memory processes can easily be confused. In this paper, using several generating models (the mean-plus-noise model, the stochastic permanent break model, the Markov switching model, the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model, the sign model, and the structural change model) and several estimation techniques (the Geweke–Porter–Hudak (GPH) technique, detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), the exact local Whittle (ELW) method, and wavelet methods) we show that, even if the answer is quite simple in some cases, it can be mitigated in other cases. Using French and American inflation rates, we found that the most appropriate process that takes into account the important features of these series is a model that simultaneously combines changes in regimes and long memory behavior. The main result of this study indicates that estimating a long memory parameter without taking into account the presence of breaks in the data sets may lead to misspecification and hence to overestimating the true parameter.     

Mimicking trans-Planckian effects in the CMB with conventional physics

We investigate the possibility that fields coupled to the inflaton can influence the primordial spectrum of density perturbations through their coherent motion. For example, the second field in hybrid inflation might be oscillating at the beginning of inflation rather than at the minimum of its potential. Although this effect is washed out if inflation lasts long enough, we note that there can be up to 30e-foldings of inflation prior to horizon crossing of COBE fluctuations while still giving a potentially visible distortion. Such pumping of the inflaton fluctuations by purely conventional physics can resemble trans-Planckian effects which have been widely discussed. The distortions which they make to the CMB could leave a distinctive signature which differs from generic effects like tilting of the spectrum.     

Minimal inflation

Using the universal X-superfield that measures in the UV the violation of conformal invariance we build up a model of multifield inflation. The underlying dynamics is the one controlling the natural flow of this field in the IR to the goldstino superfield once SUSY is broken. We show that flat directions satisfying the slow-roll conditions exist only if R-symmetry is broken. Naturalness of our model leads to scales of SUSY breaking of the order of 10^11–13 GeV, a nearly scale-invariant spectrum of the initial perturbations and negligible gravitational waves. We obtain that the inflaton field is lighter than the gravitino by an amount determined by the slow-roll parameter η. The existence of slow-roll conditions is directly linked to the values of supersymmetry and R-symmetry breaking scales. We make cosmological predictions of our model and compare them to current data.     

Inflation,LHC and the Higgs boson

After the Higgs boson has been discovered, the Standard Model of particle physics became a confirmed theory, potentially valid up to the Planck scale and allowing one to trace the evolution of the Universe from the inflationary stage till the present days. We discuss the relation between the results from the LHC and the inflationary cosmology. We overview the Higgs inflation, and its relation to the possible metastability of the electroweak vacuum. A short overview of the bounds on the metastability of the electroweak vacuum in the models with inflation not related to the Higgs boson is presented.     

Cosmic inflation and model comparison

We analyze the implications for inflation of the recently released Planck Cosmic Microwave Background data and explain why the single-field slow-roll scenarios with minimal kinetic terms are favored. Within this class of models, we show how Bayesian model comparison can be used to further exclude about one third of the inflationary scenarios. We also study the end of inflation and show that Planck can already constrain the reheating phase. Finally, we conclude by discussing how future missions will be able to improve our knowledge of the inflationary mechanism.