共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
N. Sazuka 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2006,50(1-2):129-131
A non-trivial probability structure is evident in the binary data extracted from the up/down price movements of very high
frequency data such as tick-by-tick data for USD/JPY. In this paper, we analyze the Sony bank USD/JPY rates, ignoring the
small deviations from the market price. We then show there is a similar non-trivial probability structure in the Sony bank
rate, in spite of the Sony bank rate's having less frequent and larger deviations than tick-by-tick data. However, this probability
structure is not found in the data which has been sampled from tick-by-tick data at the same rate as the Sony bank rate. Therefore,
the method of generating the Sony bank rate from the market rate has the potential for practical use since the method retains
the probability structure as the sampling frequency decreases. 相似文献
2.
S. Alfarano T. Lux F. Wagner 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,55(2):183-187
The present paper expands on recent attempts at
estimating the parameters of simple interacting-agent models of
financial markets [S. Alfarano, T. Lux, F. Wagner, Computational Economics 26, 19 (2005); S. Alfarano, T. Lux, F. Wagner, in Funktionsf?higkeit und
Stabilit?t von Finanzm?rkten, edited by W. Franz, H. Ramser,
M. Stadler (Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, 2005), pp. 241–254]. Here we
provide additional evidence by (i) investigating a large sample of
individual stocks from the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and (ii)
comparing results from the baseline noise trader/fundamentalist
model of [S. Alfarano, T. Lux, F. Wagner, Computational Economics 26, 19 (2005)] with those obtained from an even
simpler version with a preponderance of noise trader behaviour. As
it turns out, this somewhat more parsimonious “maximally skewed”
variant is often not rejected in favor of the more complex
version. We also find that all stocks are dominated by noise
trader behaviour irrespective of whether the data prefer the
skewed or the baseline version of our model. 相似文献
3.
T. Kaizoji 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2006,50(1-2):123-127
In this paper, we quantitatively investigate the properties of a statistical ensemble of stock prices. We focus attention
on the relative price defined as X(t) = S(t)/S(0), where S(0), is the stock price for an onset time of the bubble. We selected
approximately 3200 stocks traded on the Japanese Stock Exchange, and formed a statistical ensemble of daily relative prices
for each trading day in the 3-year period from January 4, 1999 to December 28, 2001, corresponding to the period in which
internet Bubble formed and crashed in the Japanese stock market.
We found that the upper tail of the complementary cumulative distribution function of the ensemble of the relative prices
in the high value of the price is well described by a power-law distribution, P(S>x) ∼x-α , with an exponent that moves over time. Furthermore we found that as the power-law exponents α approached two, the bubble burst. It is reasonable to suppose that it indicates that internet bubble is about to burst. 相似文献
4.
F. Petroni M. Serva 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2006,51(4):601-608
The present study shows how the information on `hidden' market variables effects optimal investment strategies. We take the
point of view of two investors, one who has access to the hidden variables and one who only knows the quotes of a given asset.
Following Kelly's theory on investment strategies, the Shannon information and the doubling investment rate are quantified
for both investors. Thanks to his privileged knowledge, the first investor can follow a better investment strategy. Nevertheless,
the second investor can extract some of the hidden information looking at the past history of the asset variable. Unfortunately,
due to the complexity of his strategy, this investor will have computational difficulties when he tries to apply it. He will
than follow a simplified strategy, based only on the average sign of the last l quotes of the asset. This results have been
tested with some Monte Carlo simulations. 相似文献
5.
I. Simonsen P. T.H. Ahlgren M. H. Jensen R. Donangelo K. Sneppen 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,57(2):153-158
The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper,
we
discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be
associated with a long term positive trend. These empirical
asymmetries predict that stock index drops are more common on a
relatively short time scale than the corresponding raises. We
present several empirical examples of such asymmetries. Furthermore,
a simple model featuring occasional short periods of synchronized
dropping prices for all stocks constituting the index is introduced
with the aim of explaining these facts. The collective negative
price movements are imagined triggered by external factors in our
society, as well as internal to the economy, that create fear of the
future among investors. This is parameterized by a “fear factor”
defining the frequency of synchronized events. It is demonstrated
that such a simple fear factor model can reproduce several empirical
facts concerning index asymmetries. It is also pointed out that in
its simplest form, the model has certain shortcomings. 相似文献
6.
S. Ciliberti M. Mézard 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,57(2):175-180
We use a replica approach to deal with portfolio optimization problems. A
given risk measure is minimized using empirical estimates of asset values
correlations. We study the phase transition which happens when the time
series is too short with respect to the size of the portfolio. We also study
the noise sensitivity of portfolio allocation when this transition is
approached. We consider explicitely the cases where the absolute deviation
and the conditional value-at-risk are chosen as a risk measure. We show how
the replica method can study a wide range of risk measures, and deal with
various types of time series correlations, including realistic ones with
volatility clustering. 相似文献
7.
M. Bartolozzi 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,57(3):337-345
Avalanches, or Avalanche-like, events are often
observed in the dynamical behaviour of many complex systems which
span from solar flaring to the Earth's crust dynamics and from
traffic flows to financial markets. Self-organized criticality
(SOC) is one of the most popular theories able to explain this
intermittent charge/discharge behaviour. Despite a large amount of
theoretical work, empirical tests for SOC are still in their
infancy. In the present paper we address the common problem of
revealing SOC from a simple time series without having much
information about the underlying system. As a working example we
use a modified version of the multifractal random walk originally
proposed as a model for the stock market dynamics. The study
reveals, despite the lack of the typical ingredients of SOC, an
avalanche-like dynamics similar to that of many physical systems.
While, on one hand, the results confirm the relevance of cascade
models in representing turbulent-like phenomena, on the other,
they also raise the question about the current state of
reliability of SOC inference from time series analysis. 相似文献
8.
9.
U. Lucia G. Gervino 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2006,50(1-2):367-369
In this paper an analysis of the Stirling cycle in thermoeconomic
terms is developed using the entropy generation. In the thermoeconomic optimization of an
irreversible Stirling heat pump cycle the F function has been
introduced to evaluate the optimum for the higher and lower sources
temperature ratio in the cycle: this ratio represents the value which
optimizes the cycle itself. The variation of the function F is proportional to
the variation of the entropy generation, the maxima and minima of F has been evaluated in
a previous paper without giving the physical foundation of the method. We
investigate the groundwork of this approach: to study the
upper and lower limits of F function allows to determine the cycle stability and the
optimization conditions. The optimization consists in the best COP at
the least cost. The principle
of maximum variation for the entropy generation becomes the analytic
foundation of the optimization method in the thermoeconomic analysis
for an irreversible Stirling heat pump cycle. 相似文献
10.
E. Scalas U. Garibaldi S. Donadio 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2006,53(2):267-272
Simple stochastic exchange games are based on random allocation of finite
resources. These games are Markov chains that can be studied
either analytically or by Monte Carlo simulations.
In particular, the equilibrium distribution can be derived either by
direct diagonalization of the transition matrix, or using the detailed
balance equation, or by Monte Carlo estimates. In this paper, these
methods are introduced and applied to the Bennati-Dragulescu-Yakovenko (BDY) game.
The exact analysis shows that the statistical-mechanical analogies
used in the previous literature have to be revised.
An erratum to this article is available at . 相似文献
11.
Hui Peng Tohru Ozaki Valerie Haggan-Ozaki 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2003,31(2):285-293
On the basis of the market microstructure theory and the continuous time stochastic volatility-style microstructure model,
a discrete time stochastic volatility microstructure model with state-observability is proposed for describing the dynamics
of financial markets. From the discrete time microstructure model proposed, estimates of two immeasurable state variables
representing the market excess demand and liquidity respectively may be obtained. A simple trading strategy for dynamic asset
allocation, based on the indirectly obtained excess demand information instead of the prediction for price, is presented.
An approach to the estimation of the discrete time microstructure model using the extended Kalman filter and the maximum likelihood
method is also presented. Case studies on financial market modeling and the estimated model-based asset dynamic allocation
control for the JPY/USD (Japanese Yen/US Dollar) exchange rate and Japan TOPIX (TOkyo stock Price IndeX) show satisfactory
modeling precision and control performance.
Received 11 March 2002 / Received in final form 4 November 2002 Published online 4 February 2003
RID="a"
ID="a"Currently a visiting researcher at the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 4-6-7 Minami Azabu, Minato-ku, Tokyo 106-8569,
Japan e-mail: peng@ism.ac.jp 相似文献
12.
Self-organizing Ising model of financial markets 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
W.-X. Zhou D. Sornette 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,55(2):175-181
We study a dynamical Ising-like model of agents' opinions (buy or
sell) with learning, in which the coupling coefficients are
re-assessed continuously in time according to how past external news
(time-varying magnetic field) have explained realized market
returns. By combining herding, the impact of external news and
private information, we find that the stylized facts of financial
markets are reproduced only when agents misattribute the success of
news to predict return to herding effects, thereby providing
positive feedbacks leading to the model functioning close to the
Ising critical point. 相似文献
13.
M. Bartolozzi C. Mellen T. Di Matteo T. Aste 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,58(2):207-220
In the present work we investigate the multiscale nature of the
correlations for high frequency data (1 min) in different
futures markets over a period of two years, starting on the
1st of January 2003 and ending on the 31st of
December 2004. In particular, by using the concept of local
Hurst exponent, we point out how the behaviour of this parameter,
usually considered as a benchmark for persistency/antipersistency
recognition in time series, is largely time-scale dependent in the
market context. These findings are a direct consequence of the
intrinsic complexity of a system where trading strategies are
scale-adaptive. Moreover, our analysis points out different
regimes in the dynamical behaviour of the market indices under
consideration. 相似文献
14.
S. C. Wang J. J. Tseng C. C. Tai K. H. Lai W. S. Wu S. H. Chen S. P. Li 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2008,62(1):105-111
Many systems of different nature exhibit scale free behaviors. Economic
systems with power law distribution in the wealth are one of the examples.
To better understand the working behind the complexity, we undertook an
experiment recording the interactions between market participants.
A Web server was setup to administer the exchange of
futures contracts whose liquidation prices were coupled to event outcomes.
After free registration, participants started trading to compete for
the money prizes upon maturity of the futures contracts at the end of
the experiment. The evolving `cash' flow
network was reconstructed from the transactions between players.
We show that the network topology is hierarchical, disassortative and
small-world with a power law exponent of
1.02±0.09 in the degree distribution after an exponential decay correction.
The small-world property emerged early in the experiment while the number
of participants was still small.
We also show power law-like distributions of the net incomes and
inter-transaction time intervals. Big winners and losers are associated with
high degree, high betweenness centrality,
low clustering coefficient and low degree-correlation. We identify communities
in the network as groups of the like-minded. The distribution of the
community sizes is shown to be power-law distributed with an exponent of
1.19±0.16. 相似文献
15.
V. Alfi F. Coccetti A. Petri L. Pietronero 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,55(2):135-142
We consider the roughness properties of NYSE (New York Stock Exchange) stock-price fluctuations. The
statistical properties of the data are relatively homogeneous within the same
day but the large jumps between different days prevent the extension of the
analysis to large times. This leads to intrinsic finite size effects which
alter the apparent Hurst (H) exponent.
We show, by analytical methods, that finite size effects always lead to an
enhancement of H. We then consider the effect of fat tails on the analysis
of the roughness and show that the finite size effects are strongly enhanced
by the fat tails. The non stationarity of the stock price dynamics also
enhances the finite size effects which, in principle, can become important even in the
asymptotic regime. We then compute the Hurst exponent for a set of stocks of
the NYSE and argue that the interpretation of the value
of H is highly ambiguous in view of the above results. Finally we propose an
alternative determination of the roughness in terms of the fluctuations from
moving averages with variable characteristic times. This permits to eliminate
most of the previous problems and to characterize the roughness in useful
way. In particular this approach corresponds to the automatic elimination of
trends at any scale. 相似文献
16.
Varsha Kulkarni Nivedita Deo 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,60(1):101-109
We examine the volatility of an Indian stock market in terms of
correlation of stocks and quantify the volatility using the random
matrix approach. First we discuss trends observed in the pattern
of stock prices in the Bombay Stock Exchange for the three-year
period 2000–2002. Random matrix analysis is then applied to study
the relationship between the coupling of stocks and volatility.
The study uses daily returns of 70 stocks for successive time
windows of length 85 days for the year 2001. We compare the
properties of matrix C of correlations between price
fluctuations in time regimes characterized by different
volatilities. Our analyses reveal that (i) the largest (deviating)
eigenvalue of C correlates highly with the volatility of the
index, (ii) there is a shift in the distribution of the components
of the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue across
regimes of different volatilities, (iii) the inverse participation
ratio for this eigenvector anti-correlates significantly with the
market fluctuations and finally, (iv) this eigenvector of C can
be used to set up a Correlation Index, CI whose temporal
evolution is significantly correlated with the volatility of the
overall market index. 相似文献
17.
L. Gazola C. Fernandes A. Pizzinga R. Riera 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2008,61(3):355-362
This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous
statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we
consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the
log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to
forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical
inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic
and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the
original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the
original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S.
market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points:
(i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better
statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning
the time of the financial crash has been improved. 相似文献
18.
J. de Souza L. G. Moyano S. M. Duarte Queirós 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2006,50(1-2):165-168
In this article we study the dependence degree of the traded volume of
the Dow Jones 30 constituent equities
by using a nonextensive generalised form of the Kullback-Leibler
information measure. Our results
show a slow decay of the dependence degree as a function of the lag.
This feature is compatible with the existence
of non-linearities in this type time series. In addition, we introduce a
dynamical mechanism whose associated
stationary probability density function (PDF) presents a good agreement
with the empirical results. 相似文献
19.
M. N. Kuperman S. Risau-Gusman 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2008,62(2):233-238
In this work we present an analysis of a spatially non homogeneous
ultimatum game. By considering different underlying topologies as
substrates on top of which the game takes place we obtain
nontrivial behaviors for the evolution of the strategies of the
players. We analyze separately the effect of the size of the
neighborhood and the spatial structure. Whereas this last effect
is the most significant one, we show that even for disordered
networks and provided the neighborhood of each site is small, the
results can be significantly different from those obtained in the
case of fully connected networks. 相似文献
20.
C. Windsor A. Thyagaraja 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2001,20(4):581-584
A statistical connection is identified between the current spread in a market over a given time period and the drift of the
market during previous time periods. It is shown that periods of high spread are likely to be preceded by periods with relatively
large market drifts. Several markets, including the UK pound per US Dollar, US Dollar per Yen, UK pound per Euro, and the
UK FT100 index have been analysed from 1991 to 2000 over variable periods of weeks, months and quarters. Within each period,
i the natural logarithm of the daily end-of-trade market value has been least squares fitted to a linear regression line, and
evaluations made of the regression line slope μ
i, the direct spread si with respect to the mean value, and the regression spread ri of the deviations from the regression line. Significant correlations have been observed between the current monthly direct
spread si for each period i and the absolute value of the drifts |μ
i-j| evaluated j periods earlier. This correlation coefficient is as high as 0.746 for a period of one quarter (j = 1) and appears to die away after around 9 months for quarterly averages, after around 4 months for monthly averages and
after around 2 months for weekly averages.
Received 11 October 2000 相似文献