A simple construction of optimal estimation in multivariate marginal Cox regression

The multivariate extension of the Cox model proposed by Wei,Lin and Weissfeld in 1989 has been widely used for analyzing multivariate survival data.Under the model assumption,failure times from an individual are assumed to marginally follow their respective proportional hazards regression relation,leaving the joint distribution completely unspecified.This paper presents a simple approach to efficiency improvement through segmentation of stochastic integrals in the marginal estimating equations and incorporation of the limiting covariance structure.It is shown that when partition of the time interval is done at a suitable rate,the resulting estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal.Through the reproducing kernel Hilbert space arising from the covariance function of the limiting Gaussian process,it is also shown that the proposed estimator is asymptotically optimal within a reasonable class of estimators under marginal specification.Simulations are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of the proposed method.     

Path-dependent estimation of a distribution under generalized censoring

This paper focuses on the problem of estimating a bivariate distribution when the data points are subject to censoring by a general class of randomsets. A path-dependent estimator for the distribution is proposed. The estimator is sequential in the sense that at any fixed point, it depends only on the data preceding the point. If the censoring mechanism is totally ordered, the paths may be chosen in such a way that the estimate of the distribution is an increasing function. In this case, a functional central limit theorem is proven for the estimator. Applications are discussed, and the validity of bootstrap methods is established.     

Partial functional linear quantile regression

This paper studies estimation in partial functional linear quantile regression in which the dependent variable is related to both a vector of finite length and a function-valued random variable as predictor variables. The slope function is estimated by the functional principal component basis. The asymptotic distribution of the estimator of the vector of slope parameters is derived and the global convergence rate of the quantile estimator of unknown slope function is established under suitable norm. It is showed that this rate is optimal in a minimax sense under some smoothness assumptions on the covariance kernel of the covariate and the slope function. The convergence rate of the mean squared prediction error for the proposed estimators is also be established. Finite sample properties of our procedures are studied through Monte Carlo simulations. A real data example about Berkeley growth data is used to illustrate our proposed methodology.     

纵向数据边际模型非参数光滑方法的比较

对于纵向数据边际模型的均值函数, 有很多非参数估计方法, 其中回归样条, 光滑样条, 似乎不相关(SUR)核估计等方法在工作协方差阵正确指定时具有最小的渐近方差. 回归样条的渐近偏差与工作协方差阵无关, 而SUR核估计和光滑样条估计的渐近偏差却依赖于工作协方差阵. 本文主要研究了回归样条, 光滑样条和SUR核估计的效率问题. 通过模拟比较发现回归样条估计的表现比较稳定, 在大多数情况下比光滑样条估计和SUR核估计的效率高.     

A Berry-Esseen type bound in kernel density estimation for strong mixing censored samples

In this paper, we discuss the estimation of a density function based on censored data by the kernel smoothing method when the survival and the censoring times form a stationary α-mixing sequence. A Berry-Esseen type bound is derived for the kernel density estimator at a fixed point x. For practical purposes, a randomly weighted estimator of the density function is also constructed and investigated.     

Estimating spot volatility in the presence of infinite variation jumps

We propose a kernel estimator for the spot volatility of a semi-martingale at a given time point by using high frequency data, where the underlying process accommodates a jump part of infinite variation. The estimator is based on the representation of the characteristic function of Lévy processes. The consistency of the proposed estimator is established under some mild assumptions. By assuming that the jump part of the underlying process behaves like a symmetric stable Lévy process around 0, we establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator. In particular, with a specific kernel function, the estimator is variance efficient. We conduct Monte Carlo simulation studies to assess our theoretical results and compare our estimator with existing ones.     

Hypothesis tests for high-dimensional covariance structures

We consider hypothesis testing for high-dimensional covariance structures in which the covariance matrix is a (i) scaled identity matrix, (ii) diagonal matrix, or (iii) intraclass covariance matrix. Our purpose is to systematically establish a nonparametric approach for testing the high-dimensional covariance structures (i)–(iii). We produce a new common test statistic for each covariance structure and show that the test statistic is an unbiased estimator of its corresponding test parameter. We prove that the test statistic establishes the asymptotic normality. We propose a new test procedure for (i)–(iii) and evaluate its asymptotic size and power theoretically when both the dimension and sample size increase. We investigate the performance of the proposed test procedure in simulations. As an application of testing the covariance structures, we give a test procedure to identify an eigenvector. Finally, we demonstrate the proposed test procedure by using a microarray data set.

     

�������ݾ�ֵ��Э����������Ч�Ƚ�����

In this article, we develop efficient robust method for estimation of mean and covariance simultaneously for longitudinal data in regression model. Based on Cholesky decomposition for the covariance matrix and rewriting the regression model, we propose a weighted least square estimator, in which the weights are estimated under generalized empirical likelihood framework. The proposed estimator obtains high efficiency from the close connection to empirical likelihood method, and achieves robustness by bounding the weighted sum of squared residuals. Simulation study shows that, compared to existing robust estimation methods for longitudinal data, the proposed estimator has relatively high efficiency and comparable robustness. In the end, the proposed method is used to analyse a real data set.     

On the equivalence of the weighted least squares and the generalised least squares estimators,with applications to kernel smoothing

This paper establishes the conditions under which the generalised least squares estimator of the regression parameters is equivalent to the weighted least squares estimator. The equivalence conditions have interesting applications in local polynomial regression and kernel smoothing. Specifically, they enable to derive the optimal kernel associated with a particular covariance structure of the measurement error, where optimality has to be intended in the Gauss-Markov sense. For local polynomial regression it is shown that there is a class of covariance structures, associated with non-invertible moving average processes of given orders which yield the Epanechnikov and the Henderson kernels as the optimal kernels.     

Asymptotic normality of Powell’s kernel estimator

We establish asymptotic normality of Powell’s kernel estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix of the quantile regression estimator for both i.i.d. and weakly dependent data. As an application, we derive the optimal bandwidth that minimizes the approximate mean squared error of the kernel estimator. We also derive the corresponding results to censored quantile regression.     

Consistency of the regression estimator with functional data under long memory conditions

We study the nonparametric regression estimation when the explanatory variable takes values in some abstract functional space. We establish some asymptotic results and we give the (pointwise and uniform) convergence of the kernel type estimator constructed from functional data under long memory conditions.     

Use of prior information in the consistent estimation of regression coefficients in measurement error models

A multivariate ultrastructural measurement error model is considered and it is assumed that some prior information is available in the form of exact linear restrictions on regression coefficients. Using the prior information along with the additional knowledge of covariance matrix of measurement errors associated with explanatory vector and reliability matrix, we have proposed three methodologies to construct the consistent estimators which also satisfy the given linear restrictions. Asymptotic distribution of these estimators is derived when measurement errors and random error component are not necessarily normally distributed. Dominance conditions for the superiority of one estimator over the other under the criterion of Löwner ordering are obtained for each case of the additional information. Some conditions are also proposed under which the use of a particular type of information will give a more efficient estimator.     

Rank-Score Tests in Factorial Designs with Repeated Measures

Nonparametric factorial designs for multivariate observations are considered under the framework of general rank-score statistics. Unlike most of the literature, we do not assume the continuity of the underlying distribution functions. The models studied include general repeated measures designs, compound symmetry designs, and designs for longitudinal data. In particular, designs for ordered categorical data are included. The vectors of the multivariate observations may have different lengths. Moreover, our general framework includes missing values and singular covariance matrices which occur quite frequently in practical data analysis problems. The asymptotic properties of the proposed statistics are studied under general nonparametric hypotheses as well as under a sequence of nonparametric contiguous alternatives. L₂-consistent estimators for the unknown covariance matrices are given and two types of quadratic forms are considered for testing the nonparametric hypotheses. The results are applied to a two-way mixed model assuming compound symmetry and to a factorial design for longitudinal data. The main idea of the proofs is based on some moment inequalities for empirical distribution functions in mixed models. The details are provided in the Appendix.     

HAC estimation and strong linearity testing in weak ARMA models

In the framework of ARMA models, we consider testing the reliability of the standard asymptotic covariance matrix (ACM) of the least-squares estimator. The standard formula for this ACM is derived under the assumption that the errors are independent and identically distributed, and is in general invalid when the errors are only uncorrelated. The test statistic is based on the difference between a conventional estimator of the ACM of the least-squares estimator of the ARMA coefficients and its robust HAC-type version. The asymptotic distribution of the HAC estimator is established under the null hypothesis of independence, and under a large class of alternatives. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed statistic is shown to be a standard χ² under the null, and a noncentral χ² under the alternatives. The choice of the HAC estimator is discussed through asymptotic power comparisons. The finite sample properties of the test are analyzed via Monte Carlo simulation.     

Sequences of bias-adjusted covariance matrix estimators under heteroskedasticity of unknown form

The linear regression model is commonly used by practitioners to model the relationship between the variable of interest and a set of explanatory variables. The assumption that all error variances are the same, known as homoskedasticity, is oftentimes violated when cross sectional data are used. Consistent standard errors for the ordinary least squares estimators of the regression parameters can be computed following the approach proposed by White (Econometrica 48:817–838, 1980). Such standard errors, however, are considerably biased in samples of typical sizes. An improved covariance matrix estimator was proposed by Qian and Wang (J Stat Comput Simul 70:161–174, 2001). In this paper, we improve upon the Qian–Wang estimator by defining a sequence of bias-adjusted estimators with increasing accuracy. The numerical results show that the Qian–Wang estimator is typically much less biased than the estimator proposed by Halbert White and that our correction to the former can be quite effective in small samples. Finally, we show that the Qian–Wang estimator can be generalized into a broad class of heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimators, and our results can be easily extended to such a class of estimators.     

正态条件下带AR(1)-型方差结构GMANOVA-MANOVA模型极大似然估计的小样本特征

研究了一类带一阶自回归(AR(1))-型方差结构的广义多元方差分析-多元方差分析(GMANO VA-MANOVA)模型参数极大似然估计的小样本特征.对带AR(1)-型方差结构GMANOVA-MANOVA模型,文章在正态条件下给出了参数极大似然估计存在的一个充分必要条件,讨论了极大似然估计唯一的充分条件.在该充分条件下,文章证明了相关系数极大似然估计的精确分布只与相关系数有关,并依此给出了自相关系数简单假设H0:ρ=0v.s.H1:ρ≠0的一个不需要叠代计算估计的检验,同时模拟表明该检验为无偏检验且势函数与似然比检验势函数无太大差异.     

Differentially Private Precision Matrix Estimation

In this paper, we study the problem of precision matrix estimation when the dataset contains sensitive information. In the differential privacy framework, we develop a differentially private ridge estimator by perturbing the sample covariance matrix. Then we develop a differentially private graphical lasso estimator by using the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) algorithm. Furthermore, we prove theoretical results showing that the differentially private ridge estimator for the precision matrix is consistent under fixed-dimension asymptotic, and establish a convergence rate of differentially private graphical lasso estimator in the Frobenius norm as both data dimension p and sample size n are allowed to grow. The empirical results that show the utility of the proposed methods are also provided.     

On high-dimensional change point problem

New statistics are proposed to estimate and test the structural change when the data dimension is comparable to or larger than the sample size. Consistency of the new statistic in estimating the change point position is established under the alternative hypothesis. The asymptotic distribution of the new statistic in testing the existence of a change point is obtained under the null hypothesis. Some simulation results are presented which show that the numerical performance of our method is satisfactory. The method is illustrated via the analysis of the house price index of US.     

金融风险管理中VaR度量的光滑估计效率

本文研究了金融风险管理理论中风险价值(VaR)的非参数核光滑估计和经验估计的效率问题.对非独立的时间序列损失/收益样本,在均方误差(MSE)准则的意义下引入亏量的概念,亏量越大表明估计效率越低.并利用亏量对VaR模型的核光滑估计和基于样本分位数的经验估计进行了比较,在理论上证明了VaR模型的核光滑估计优于经验估计.同时,通过计算机模拟证实了理论获得的结论.本文还对国内沪深两市上的证券投资基金进行了实证分析,计算了样本基金的VaR风险度量的经验估计和核光滑估计,并计算了样本基金基于周收益率和VaR估计的风险调整收益(RAROC)值,以此对样本基金的业绩做出了有用的评价.     

Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a semi-functional partial linear regression model with unknown error density

In the context of semi-functional partial linear regression model, we study the problem of error density estimation. The unknown error density is approximated by a mixture of Gaussian densities with means being the individual residuals, and variance a constant parameter. This mixture error density has a form of a kernel density estimator of residuals, where the regression function, consisting of parametric and nonparametric components, is estimated by the ordinary least squares and functional Nadaraya–Watson estimators. The estimation accuracy of the ordinary least squares and functional Nadaraya–Watson estimators jointly depends on the same bandwidth parameter. A Bayesian approach is proposed to simultaneously estimate the bandwidths in the kernel-form error density and in the regression function. Under the kernel-form error density, we derive a kernel likelihood and posterior for the bandwidth parameters. For estimating the regression function and error density, a series of simulation studies show that the Bayesian approach yields better accuracy than the benchmark functional cross validation. Illustrated by a spectroscopy data set, we found that the Bayesian approach gives better point forecast accuracy of the regression function than the functional cross validation, and it is capable of producing prediction intervals nonparametrically.