Bayesian cooperative choice of strategies

This paper provides a formal framework within which to study cooperative behavior in the presence of incomplete information, and shows how far the known results in the static cooperative game theory can readily be applied to the proposed framework. The new concepts of Bayesian society, Bayesian strong equilibrium and Bayesian incentive compatible strong equilibrium are introduced and studied.     

A Categorical Foundation for Bayesian Probability

Building on the work of Lawvere and others, we develop a categorical framework for Bayesian probability. This foundation will then allow for Bayesian representations of uncertainty to be integrated into other categorical modeling applications. The main result uses an existence theorem for regular conditional probabilities by Faden, which holds in more generality than the standard setting of Polish spaces. This more general setting is advantageous, as it allows for non-trivial decision rules (Eilenberg–Moore algebras) on finite (as well as non finite) spaces. In this way, we obtain a common framework for decision theory and Bayesian probability.     

Full Bayesian analysis of claims reserving uncertainty

We revisit the gamma–gamma Bayesian chain-ladder (BCL) model for claims reserving in non-life insurance. This claims reserving model is usually used in an empirical Bayesian way using plug-in estimates for the variance parameters. The advantage of this empirical Bayesian framework is that allows us for closed form solutions. The main purpose of this paper is to develop the full Bayesian case also considering prior distributions for the variance parameters and to study the resulting sensitivities.     

Dynamic consistency in incomplete information games under ambiguity

We develop a general framework of incomplete information games under ambiguity which extends the traditional framework of Bayesian games to the context of Ellsberg-type ambiguity. We then propose new solution concepts called ex ante and interim Γ-maximin equilibrium for solving such games. We show that, unlike the standard notion of Bayesian Nash equilibrium, these concepts may lead to rather different recommendations for the same game under ambiguity. This phenomenon is often referred to as dynamic inconsistency. Moreover, we characterize the sufficient condition under which dynamic consistency is assured in this generalized framework.     

Prediction of soil water retention curve using Bayesian updating from limited measurement data

A soil water retention curve is one of the fundamental elements used to describe unsaturated soil. The accurate determination of soil water retention curve requires sufficient available information. However, the amount of measurement data is generally limited due to the restriction of time or test apparatus. As a result, it is a challenge to determine the soil water retention curve from limited measurement data. To address this problem, a Bayesian framework is proposed. In the Bayesian framework, Bayesian updating can be employed using the posterior distribution that is obtained by the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling method with the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithm. The parameters of soil water retention curve model are represented by the sample statistics of updating posterior distribution. A new updating algorithm based on Bayesian framework is proposed to predict the soil water retention curve using the ideal data and the limited measurement data of the granite residual soil and sand. The results show that the proposed prediction algorithm exhibits an excellent capability for more accurately determining the soil water retention curve with limited measured data. The uncertainty of updating parameters and the influence of the prior knowledge can be reduced. The converged results can be derived using the proposed prediction algorithm even if the prior knowledge is incomplete.     

Bayesian Registration of Functions With a Gaussian Process Prior

We present a Bayesian framework for registration of real-valued functional data. At the core of our approach is a series of transformations of the data and functional parameters, developed under a differential geometric framework. We aim to avoid discretization of functional objects for as long as possible, thus minimizing the potential pitfalls associated with high-dimensional Bayesian inference. Approximate draws from the posterior distribution are obtained using a novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, which is well suited for estimation of functions. We illustrate our approach via pairwise and multiple functional data registration, using both simulated and real datasets. Supplementary material for this article is available online.     

A Bayesian framework for the combination of classifier outputs

We explore a Bayesian framework for constructing combinations of classifier outputs, as a means to improving overall classification results. We propose a sequential Bayesian framework to estimate the posterior probability of being in a certain class given multiple classifiers. This framework, which employs meta-Gaussian modelling but makes no assumptions about the distribution of classifier outputs, allows us to capture nonlinear dependencies between the combined classifiers and individuals. An important property of our method is that it produces a combined classifier that dominates the individuals upon which it is based in terms of Bayes risk, error rate, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. To illustrate the method, we show empirical results from the combination of credit scores generated from four different scoring models.     

结构系统识别不确定性分析的Bayes方法及其进展

受测试误差、建模误差、数值离散化以及环境变异等因素的影响,结构系统识别过程不可避免地存在不确定性,因此有必要引入概率统计方法来提高其鲁棒性,为工程结构安全监测提供更为可靠的结果.近年来,Bayes(贝叶斯)方法因为其诸多优势在系统识别领域受到了广泛关注.该文梳理了Bayes系统识别的历史脉络和研究进展.从Bayes系统识别的理论框架出发,分析了量化系统识别不确定性两类方法的适用条件与局限性.此外,文章综述了Bayes方法在模态参数识别、有限元模型修正以及结构损伤识别方面进行不确定性分析的理论、实现及其应用.最后对基于Bayes方法进行系统识别研究的发展趋势做出了展望.     

Well-posedness of Bayesian inverse problems in quasi-Banach spaces with stable priors

The Bayesian perspective on inverse problems has attracted much mathematical attention in recent years. Particular attention has been paid to Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs) in which the parameter to be inferred lies in an infinite-dimensional space, a typical example being a scalar or tensor field coupled to some observed data via an ODE or PDE. This article gives an introduction to the framework of well-posed BIPs in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces, as advocated by Stuart (Acta Numer. 19:451–559, 2010) and others. This framework has the advantage of ensuring uniformly well-posed inference problems independently of the finite-dimensional discretisation used for numerical solution. Recently, this framework has been extended to the case of a heavy-tailed prior measure in the family of stable distributions, such as an infinite-dimensional Cauchy distribution, for which polynomial moments are infinite or undefined. It is shown that analogues of the Karhunen–Loève expansion for square-integrable random variables can be used to sample such measures on quasi-Banach spaces. Furthermore, under weaker regularity assumptions than those used to date, the Bayesian posterior measure is shown to depend Lipschitz continuously in the Hellinger and total variation metrics upon perturbations of the misfit function and observed data. (© 2017 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Bayesian methods in global optimization

This paper reviews methods which have been proposed for solving global optimization problems in the framework of the Bayesian paradigm.     

Generalized Dynamic Factor Models for Mixed-Measurement Time Series

In this article, we propose generalized Bayesian dynamic factor models for jointly modeling mixed-measurement time series. The framework allows mixed-scale measurements associated with each time series, with different measurements having different distributions in the exponential family conditionally on time-varying latent factor(s). Efficient Bayesian computational algorithms are developed for posterior inference on both the latent factors and model parameters, based on a Metropolis–Hastings algorithm with adaptive proposals. The algorithm relies on a Greedy Density Kernel Approximation and parameter expansion with latent factor normalization. We tested the framework and algorithms in simulated studies and applied them to the analysis of intertwined credit and recovery risk for Moody’s rated firms from 1982 to 2008, illustrating the importance of jointly modeling mixed-measurement time series. The article has supplementary materials available online.     

Forecasting seasonal time series data: a Bayesian model averaging approach

A flexible Bayesian periodic autoregressive model is used for the prediction of quarterly and monthly time series data. As the unknown autoregressive lag order, the occurrence of structural breaks and their respective break dates are common sources of uncertainty these are treated as random quantities within the Bayesian framework. Since no analytical expressions for the corresponding marginal posterior predictive distributions exist a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach based on data augmentation is proposed. Its performance is demonstrated in Monte Carlo experiments. Instead of resorting to a model selection approach by choosing a particular candidate model for prediction, a forecasting approach based on Bayesian model averaging is used in order to account for model uncertainty and to improve forecasting accuracy. For model diagnosis a Bayesian sign test is introduced to compare the predictive accuracy of different forecasting models in terms of statistical significance. In an empirical application, using monthly unemployment rates of Germany, the performance of the model averaging prediction approach is compared to those of model selected Bayesian and classical (non)periodic time series models.     

A Bayesian approach to pricing longevity risk based on risk-neutral predictive distributions

We present a Bayesian approach to pricing longevity risk under the framework of the Lee-Carter methodology. Specifically, we propose a Bayesian method for pricing the survivor bond and the related survivor swap designed by Denuit et al. (2007). Our method is based on the risk neutralization of the predictive distribution of future survival rates using the entropy maximization principle discussed by Stutzer (1996). The method is illustrated by applying it to Japanese mortality rates.     

A Bayesian Model for Root Computation

A univariate polynomial over the real or the complex numbers is given approximately. We present a Bayesian method for the computation of the posterior probabilities of different multiplicity patterns. The method is based on interpreting the root computation problem as an inverse problem which is then treated in the Bayesian framework. The method can be used to select the most probable multiplicity pattern when the coefficients of a univariate polynomial are not known exactly. The method is illustrated by several numerical examples.     

正态分布的共轭分布及贝叶斯估计

本文介绍含有一个或两个未知参数的正态分布Ｎ（μ，）的共轭分布，以及对正态总体的未知参数进行估计的贝叶斯方法。     

Nonparametric Bayesian topic modelling with the hierarchical Pitman–Yor processes

The Dirichlet process and its extension, the Pitman–Yor process, are stochastic processes that take probability distributions as a parameter. These processes can be stacked up to form a hierarchical nonparametric Bayesian model. In this article, we present efficient methods for the use of these processes in this hierarchical context, and apply them to latent variable models for text analytics. In particular, we propose a general framework for designing these Bayesian models, which are called topic models in the computer science community. We then propose a specific nonparametric Bayesian topic model for modelling text from social media. We focus on tweets (posts on Twitter) in this article due to their ease of access. We find that our nonparametric model performs better than existing parametric models in both goodness of fit and real world applications.     

A new Bayesian procedure for testing point null hypotheses

Testing point null hypotheses is a very common activity in various applied situations. However, the existing Bayesian testing procedure may give evidence which does not agree with the classical frequentist p-value in many point null testing situations. A typical example for this is the well known Lindley’s paradox (Lindley in Biometrika 44:187–192, 1957). In this paper we propose an alternative testing procedure in the Bayesian framework. It is shown that for many classical testing examples, the Bayesian evidence derived by our new testing procedure is not contradictory to its frequentist counterpart any more. In fact, the new Bayesian evidence under the noninformative prior is usually coincident with the frequentist observed significance level.     

A Bayesian nonparametric model and its application in insurance loss prediction

Predicting insurance losses is an eternal focus of actuarial science in the insurance sector. Due to the existence of complicated features such as skewness, heavy tail, and multi-modality, traditional parametric models are often inadequate to describe the distribution of losses, calling for a mature application of Bayesian methods. In this study we explore a Gaussian mixture model based on Dirichlet process priors. Using three automobile insurance datasets, we employ the probit stick-breaking method to incorporate the effect of covariates into the weight of the mixture component, improve its hierarchical structure, and propose a Bayesian nonparametric model that can identify the unique regression pattern of different samples. Moreover, an advanced updating algorithm of slice sampling is integrated to apply an improved approximation to the infinite mixture model. We compare our framework with four common regression techniques: three generalized linear models and a dependent Dirichlet process ANOVA model. The empirical results show that the proposed framework flexibly characterizes the actual loss distribution in the insurance datasets and demonstrates superior performance in the accuracy of data fitting and extrapolating predictions, thus greatly extending the application of Bayesian methods in the insurance sector.     

A COMPOUND POISSON MODEL FOR LEARNING DISCRETE BAYESIAN NETWORKS

We introduce here the concept of Bayesian networks, in compound Poisson model, which provides a graphical modeling framework that encodes the joint probability distribution for a set of random variables within a directed acyclic graph. We suggest an approach proposal which offers a new mixed implicit estimator. We show that the implicit approach applied in compound Poisson model is very attractive for its ability to understand data and does not require any prior information. A comparative study between learned estimates given by implicit and by standard Bayesian approaches is established. Under some conditions and based on minimal squared error calculations, we show that the mixed implicit estimator is better than the standard Bayesian and the maximum likelihood estimators. We illustrate our approach by considering a simulation study in the context of mobile communication networks.