Optimization algorithm for learning consistent belief rule-base from examples

A belief rule-based inference approach and its corresponding optimization algorithm deal with a rule-base with a belief structure called a belief rule base (BRB) that forms a basis in the inference mechanism. In this paper, a new learning method is proposed based on the given sample data for optimally generating a consistent BRB. The focus is given on the consistency of BRB knowing that the consistency conditions are often violated if the system is generated from real world data. The measurement of BRB inconsistency is incorporated in the objective function of the optimization algorithm. This process is formulated as a non-linear constraint optimization problem and solved using the optimization tool provided in MATLAB. A numerical example is demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.     

Belief rule-based system for portfolio optimisation with nonlinear cash-flows and constraints

A belief rule-based (BRB) system is a generic nonlinear modelling and inference scheme. It is based on the concept of belief structures and evidential reasoning (ER), and has been shown to be capable of capturing complicated nonlinear causal relationships between antecedent attributes and consequents. The aim of this paper is to develop a BRB system that complements the RiskMetrics WealthBench system for portfolio optimisation with nonlinear cash-flows and constraints. Two optimisation methods are presented to locate efficient portfolios under different constraints specified by the investors. Numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed methodology.     

Self-tuning of fuzzy belief rule bases for engineering system safety analysis

A framework for modelling the safety of an engineering system using a fuzzy rule-based evidential reasoning (FURBER) approach has been recently proposed, where a fuzzy rule-base designed on the basis of a belief structure (called a belief rule base) forms a basis in the inference mechanism of FURBER. However, it is difficult to accurately determine the parameters of a fuzzy belief rule base (FBRB) entirely subjectively, in particular for complex systems. As such, there is a need to develop a supporting mechanism that can be used to train in a locally optimal way a FBRB initially built using expert knowledge. In this paper, the methods for self-tuning a FBRB for engineering system safety analysis are investigated on the basis of a previous study. The method consists of a number of single and multiple objective nonlinear optimization models. The above framework is applied to model the system safety of a marine engineering system and the case study is used to demonstrate how the methods can be implemented.     

A model for real-time failure prognosis based on hidden Markov model and belief rule base

As one of most important aspects of condition-based maintenance (CBM), failure prognosis has attracted an increasing attention with the growing demand for higher operational efficiency and safety in industrial systems. Currently there are no effective methods which can predict a hidden failure of a system real-time when there exist influences from the changes of environmental factors and there is no such an accurate mathematical model for the system prognosis due to its intrinsic complexity and operating in potentially uncertain environment. Therefore, this paper focuses on developing a new hidden Markov model (HMM) based method which can deal with the problem. Although an accurate model between environmental factors and a failure process is difficult to obtain, some expert knowledge can be collected and represented by a belief rule base (BRB) which is an expert system in fact. As such, combining the HMM with the BRB, a new prognosis model is proposed to predict the hidden failure real-time even when there are influences from the changes of environmental factors. In the proposed model, the HMM is used to capture the relationships between the hidden failure and monitored observations of a system. The BRB is used to model the relationships between the environmental factors and the transition probabilities among the hidden states of the system including the hidden failure, which is the main contribution of this paper. Moreover, a recursive algorithm for online updating the prognosis model is developed. An experimental case study is examined to demonstrate the implementation and potential applications of the proposed real-time failure prognosis method.     

The “DUEL” expert system: Implementation of a dual approach for IBM-compatible computers

We describe the “DUEL” expert system, a software package intended for analyzing problem situations and decision making in medical, economic, engineering, and other systems, based on modern information technology, the introduction of knowledge and data bases, and deductive and inductive approaches to the synthesis and justification of decisions. “DUEL” is two inference machines: a deductive machine that uses the products contained in the knowledge base, and an inductive machine that provides generalization on the basis of precedents accumulated in the data base. Translated fromDinamicheskie Sistemy, No. 13, 1994, pp. 93–98.     

Domain knowledge integration in data mining using decision tables: case studies in churn prediction

Companies' interest in customer relationship modelling and key issues such as customer lifetime value and churn has substantially increased over the years. However, the complexity of building, interpreting and applying these models creates obstacles for their implementation. The main contribution of this paper is to show how domain knowledge can be incorporated in the data mining process for churn prediction, viz. through the evaluation of coefficient signs in a logistic regression model, and secondly, by analysing a decision table (DT) extracted from a decision tree or rule-based classifier. An algorithm to check DTs for violations of monotonicity constraints is presented, which involves the repeated application of condition reordering and table contraction to detect counter-intuitive patterns. Both approaches are applied to two telecom data sets to empirically demonstrate how domain knowledge can be used to ensure the interpretability of the resulting models.     

Likelihood-based belief function: Justification and some extensions to low-quality data

Given a parametric statistical model, evidential methods of statistical inference aim at constructing a belief function on the parameter space from observations. The two main approaches are Dempster's method, which regards the observed variable as a function of the parameter and an auxiliary variable with known probability distribution, and the likelihood-based approach, which considers the relative likelihood as the contour function of a consonant belief function. In this paper, we revisit the latter approach and prove that it can be derived from three basic principles: the likelihood principle, compatibility with Bayes' rule and the minimal commitment principle. We then show how this method can be extended to handle low-quality data. Two cases are considered: observations that are only partially relevant to the population of interest, and data acquired through an imperfect observation process.     

Interpretability assessment of fuzzy knowledge bases: A cointension based approach

Computing with words (CWW) relies on linguistic representation of knowledge that is processed by operating at the semantical level defined through fuzzy sets. Linguistic representation of knowledge is a major issue when fuzzy rule based models are acquired from data by some form of empirical learning. Indeed, these models are often requested to exhibit interpretability, which is normally evaluated in terms of structural features, such as rule complexity, properties on fuzzy sets and partitions. In this paper we propose a different approach for evaluating interpretability that is based on the notion of cointension. The interpretability of a fuzzy rule-based model is measured in terms of cointension degree between the explicit semantics, defined by the formal parameter settings of the model, and the implicit semantics conveyed to the reader by the linguistic representation of knowledge. Implicit semantics calls for a representation of user’s knowledge which is difficult to externalise. Nevertheless, we identify a set of properties - which we call “logical view” - that is expected to hold in the implicit semantics and is used in our approach to evaluate the cointension between explicit and implicit semantics. In practice, a new fuzzy rule base is obtained by minimising the fuzzy rule base through logical properties. Semantic comparison is made by evaluating the performances of the two rule bases, which are supposed to be similar when the two semantics are almost equivalent. If this is the case, we deduce that the logical view is applicable to the model, which can be tagged as interpretable from the cointension viewpoint. These ideas are then used to define a strategy for assessing interpretability of fuzzy rule-based classifiers (FRBCs). The strategy has been evaluated on a set of pre-existent FRBCs, acquired by different learning processes from a well-known benchmark dataset. Our analysis highlighted that some of them are not cointensive with user’s knowledge, hence their linguistic representation is not appropriate, even though they can be tagged as interpretable from a structural point of view.     

A belief function classifier based on information provided by noisy and dependent features

A model and method are proposed for dealing with noisy and dependent features in classification problems. The knowledge base consists of uncertain logical rules forming a probabilistic argumentation system. Assumption-based reasoning is the inference mechanism that is used to derive information about the correct class of the object. Given a hypothesis regarding the correct class, the system provides a symbolic expression of the arguments for that hypothesis as a logical disjunctive normal form. These arguments turn into degrees of support for the hypothesis when numerical weights are assigned to them, thereby creating a support function on the set of possible classes. Since a support function is a belief function, the pignistic transformation is then applied to the support function and the object is placed into the class with maximal pignistic probability.     

Belief updating in multiply sectioned Bayesian networks without repeated local propagations

Multiply sectioned Bayesian networks (MSBNs) provide a coherent and flexible formalism for representing uncertain knowledge in large domains. Global consistency among subnets in an MSBN is achieved by communication. When a subnet updates its belief with respect to an adjacent subnet, existing inference operations require repeated belief propagations (proportional to the number of linkages between the two subnets) within the receiving subnet, making communication less efficient. We redefine these operations such that two such propagations are sufficient. We prove that the new operations, while improving the efficiency, do not compromise the coherence. An MSBN must be initialized before inference can take place. The initialization involves dedicated operations not shared by inference operations according to existing methods. We show that the new inference operations presented here unify inference and initialization. Hence the new operations are not only more efficient but also simpler. The new results are presented such that their connection with the common inference methods for single Bayesian networks is highlighted.     

C3I系统知识库的类特征模式

在Ｃ３Ｉ系统知识库中引入了条件事件推理规则以及类与特征的概念，并给出了进行动态管理知识库的有效方法。     

ARMMS: Analogical reasoning model management system for multicriteria vehicle scheduling

The transportation industry problem of scheduling vehicles combines the spatial characteristics of routing with time domain considerations of activity schedules. The problem is complex because of the numerous interacting constraints in the spatial and time domains. Further, some of the constraints are flexible and some arise in real-time. The scheduling problem is often presented with multiple objectives that are not all economic in nature and which can be contradictory to one another. In response to these needs, this paper describes an analogical reasoning model management system, called ARMMS, designed in the domain of vehicle scheduling. ARMMS consists of knowledge bases and data bases, a truth maintenance system, a user interface, an inference engine, a learning mechanism, and a model library. Given a scheduling problem, ARMMS searches its memory for solutions. If no solution is available, ARMMS falls back on an analogical problem solving approach in which similar experience can be recalled, and solutions to new, but similar, problems can be constructed. If no similar experience exists, ARMMS intelligently selects an appropriate algorithmic model from its model library, based on the input parameters and problem type, to solve the given problem. By combining experts' knowledge, analogical problem-solving approaches, and algorithmic methods, ARMMS provides an efficient problem-solving approach for vehicle scheduling and routing. ARMMS is also a feasible base for the development of intelligent model management systems.     

Selecting informative rules with parallel genetic algorithm in classification problem

The classification system is very important for making decision and it has been attracted much attention of many researchers. Usually, the traditional classifiers are either domain specific or produce unsatisfactory results over classification problems with larger size and imbalanced data. Hence, genetic algorithms (GA) are recently being combined with traditional classifiers to find useful knowledge for making decision. Although, the main concerns of such GA-based system are the coverage of less search space and increase of computational cost with the growth of population. In this paper, a rule-based knowledge discovery model, combining C4.5 (a Decision Tree based rule inductive algorithm) and a new parallel genetic algorithm based on the idea of massive parallelism, is introduced. The prime goal of the model is to produce a compact set of informative rules from any kind of classification problem. More specifically, the proposed model receives a base method C4.5 to generate rules which are then refined by our proposed parallel GA. The strength of the developed system has been compared with pure C4.5 as well as the hybrid system (C4.5 + sequential genetic algorithm) on six real world benchmark data sets collected from UCI (University of California at Irvine) machine learning repository. Experiments on data sets validate the effectiveness of the new model. The presented results especially indicate that the model is powerful for volumetric data set.     

A fifth generation numerical modelling system in coastal zone

Nowadays, artificial intelligence (AI) technology is gradually integrated into the numerical modelling system to make the system more intelligent and more user-friendly. The characteristics of the fifth generation numerical modelling are connected with AI applications. The expert system technology as a widely applied AI technology is integrated into our modelling system for coastal water processes with traditional numerical computational tools and the data and graphical pre-processing and post-processing techniques. Five kinds of knowledge bases are built in the system to describe the existing expertise knowledge about model parameters, relations between parameters and physical conditions, various possible selections for parameters and rules of inference. The inference engine is designed to be driven by the confidence of correctness, and the rule base is built with the factor of confidence to link the various relations. The decision tree is designed to drive the inference engine to explore the route of selection procedure of modeling. The decision tree depends on the real problem specifications and can be modified during the dialogue between the system and the user. The forward chaining and backward chaining inference techniques are mixed together in the system to help matching the parameters in the model and the possible selections with sufficiently high confidence. The expert system technology is successfully integrated into the system to provide help for model parameter selection or model selection, and to make the numerical model system more accessible for non-expert users.     

Bayesian networks for mathematical models: Techniques for automatic construction and efficient inference

Expert knowledge in the form of mathematical models can be considered sufficient statistics of all prior experimentation in the domain, embodying generic or abstract knowledge of it. When used in a probabilistic framework, such models provide a sound foundation for data mining, inference, and decision making under uncertainty.We describe a methodology for encapsulating knowledge in the form of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) in dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). The resulting DBN framework can handle both data and model uncertainty in a principled manner, can be used for temporal data mining with noisy and missing data, and can be used to re-estimate model parameters automatically using data streams. A standard assumption when performing inference in DBNs is that time steps are fixed. Generally, the time step chosen is small enough to capture the dynamics of the most rapidly changing variable. This can result in DBNs having a natural time step that is very short, leading to inefficient inference; this is particularly an issue for DBNs derived from ODEs and for systems where the dynamics are not uniform over time.We propose an alternative to the fixed time step inference used in standard DBNs. In our algorithm, the DBN automatically adapts the time step lengths to suit the dynamics in each step. The resulting system allows us to efficiently infer probable values of hidden variables using multiple time series of evidence, some of which may be sparse, noisy or incomplete.We evaluate our approach with a DBN based on a variant of the van der Pol oscillator, and demonstrate an example where it gives more accurate results than the standard approach, but using only one tenth the number of time steps.We also apply our approach to a real-world example in critical care medicine. By incorporating knowledge in the form of an existing ODE model, we have built a DBN framework for efficiently predicting individualised patient responses using the available bedside and lab data.     

An algebraic theory for statistical information based on the theory of hints

Statistical problems were at the origin of the mathematical theory of evidence, or Dempster–Shafer theory. It was also one of the major concerns of Philippe Smets, starting with his PhD dissertation. This subject is reconsidered here, starting with functional models, describing how data is generated in statistical experiments. Inference is based on these models, using probabilistic assumption-based reasoning. It results in posterior belief functions on the unknown parameters. Formally, the information used in the process of inference can be represented by hints. Basic operations on hints are combination, corresponding to Dempster’s rule, and focussing. This leads to an algebra of hints. Applied to functional models, this introduces an algebraic flavor into statistical inference. It emphasizes the view that in statistical inference different pieces of information have to be combined and then focussed onto the question of interest. This theory covers Bayesian and Fisher type inference as two extreme cases of a more general theory of inference.     

Schedule-an expert-like system for machine scheduling

The construction of an expert-like system for machine scheduling called SCHEDULE is presented. Essential parts of SCHEDULE were developed by students in a laboratory course Operations Research on Microcomputers at the University of Karlsruhe, Germany. SCHEDULE consists of the components data base, knowledge base, inference engine, explanation facility, dialog component, and knowledge acquisition component. The knowledge base contains an algorithm base for solving different types of scheduling problems. To establish the rules of the knowledge base the well-known three-field classification of deterministic machine scheduling problems and the concept of the reduction digraph are exploited. Experiences gained during building and demonstrating SCHEDULE are reported.     

Uncertain insurance risk process with multiple classes of claims

Traditionally, an insurance risk process describes an insurance company’s risk through some criteria using the historical data under the framework of probability theory with the prerequisite that the estimated distribution function is close enough to the true frequency. However, because of the complexity and changeability of the world, economical and technological reasons in many cases enough historical data are unavailable and we have to base on belief degrees given by some domain experts, which motivates us to include the human uncertainty in the insurance risk process by regarding interarrival times and claim amounts as uncertain variables using uncertainty theory. Noting the expansion of insurance companies’ operation scale and the increase of businesses with different risk nature, in this paper we extend the uncertain insurance risk process with a single class of claims to that with multiple classes of claims, and derive expressions for the ruin index and the uncertainty distribution of ruin time respectively. As the ruin time can be infinite, we propose a proper uncertain variable and the corresponding proper uncertainty distribution of that. Some numerical examples are documented to illustrate our results. Finally our method is applied to a real-world problem with some satellite insurance data provided by global insurance brokerage MARSH.     

解决矛盾问题的可拓模型与可拓知识的研究

可拓学是解决矛盾问题的学科,在可拓学的可拓模型原型的基础上,明确了计算机解决矛盾问题的可拓模型,它包括三部分:关联函数、可拓知识和推理算法,其中关联函数和可拓知识对不同的问题需要利用不同的原理,且它们是逐步变化的.在可拓知识中,关联函数的可拓变换需要通过计算证明其值是逐步增加的.这样,矛盾问题在计算机中才能得到解决.本文通过多个实例来说明解决矛盾问题的可拓模型及可拓知识的建立和实现.     

Inference about constrained parameters using the elastic belief method

Statistical inference about unknown parameter values that have known constraints is a challenging problem for both frequentist and Bayesian methods. As an alternative, inferential models created with the weak belief method can generate inferential results with desirable frequency properties for constrained parameter problems. To accomplish this, we propose an extension of weak belief called the elastic belief method. Compared to an existing rule for conditioning on constraint information, the elastic belief method produces more efficient probabilistic inference while maintaining desirable frequency properties. The application of this new method is demonstrated in two well-studied examples: inference about a nonnegative quantity measured with Gaussian error and inference about the signal rate of a Poisson count with a known background rate. Compared to several previous interval-forming methods for the constrained Poisson signal rate, the new method gives an interval with better coverage probability or a simpler construction. More importantly, the inferential model provides a post-data predictive measure of uncertainty about the unknown parameter value that is not inherent in other interval-forming methods.