Characterizing a comonotonic random vector by the distribution of the sum of its components

In this article, we characterize comonotonicity and related dependence structures among several random variables by the distribution of their sum. First we prove that if the sum has the same distribution as the corresponding comonotonic sum, then the underlying random variables must be comonotonic as long as each of them is integrable. In the literature, this result is only known to be true if either each random variable is square integrable or possesses a continuous distribution function. We then study the situation when the distribution of the sum only coincides with the corresponding comonotonic sum in the tail. This leads to the dependence structure known as tail comonotonicity. Finally, by establishing some new results concerning convex order, we show that comonotonicity can also be characterized by expected utility and distortion risk measures.     

Some Asymptotic Results for One-Sided Large Deviation Probabilities

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of the sum of independent real random variables. We assume that the random variables are not identically distributed but the average of distribution functions of these random variables is equivalent to some heavy-tailed limit distribution function. An example with Pareto law as limit function is given.     

On the distribution of the (un)bounded sum of random variables

We propose a general treatment of random variables aggregation accounting for the dependence among variables and bounded or unbounded support of their sum. The approach is based on the extension to the concept of convolution to dependent variables, involving copula functions. We show that some classes of copula functions (such as Marshall-Olkin and elliptical) cannot be used to represent the dependence structure of two variables whose sum is bounded, while Archimedean copulas can be applied only if the generator becomes linear beyond some point. As for the application, we study the problem of capital allocation between risks when the sum of losses is bounded.     

Inverse DEA under inter-temporal dependence using multiple-objective programming

This paper deals with the inverse Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) under inter-temporal dependence assumption. Both problems, input-estimation and output-estimation, are investigated. Necessary and sufficient conditions for input/output estimation are established utilizing Pareto and weak Pareto solutions of linear multiple-objective programming problems. Furthermore, in this paper we introduce a new optimality notion for multiple-objective programming problems, periodic weak Pareto optimality. These solutions are used in inverse DEA, and it is shown that these can be characterized by a simple modification in weighted sum scalarization tool.     

The laws of large numbers for Pareto-type random variables under sub-linear expectation

In this paper, some laws of large numbers are established for random variables that satisfy the Pareto distribution, so that the relevant conclusions in the traditional probability space are extended to the sub-linear expectation space. Based on the Pareto distribution, we obtain the weak law of large numbers and strong law of large numbers of the weighted sum of some independent random variable sequences.     

Second order tail asymptotics for the sum of dependent, tail-independent regularly varying risks

In this paper we consider dependent random variables with common regularly varying marginal distribution. Under the assumption that these random variables are tail-independent, it is well known that the tail of the sum behaves like in the independence case. Under some conditions on the marginal distributions and the dependence structure (including Gaussian copula’s and certain Archimedean copulas) we provide the second-order asymptotic behavior of the tail of the sum.     

Constructing efficient solutions structure of multiobjective linear programming

It is not a difficult task to find a weak Pareto or Pareto solution in a multiobjective linear programming (MOLP) problem. The difficulty lies in finding all these solutions and representing their structure. This paper develops an algorithm for solving this problem. We investigate the solutions and their relationships in the objective space. The algorithm determines finite number of weights, each of which corresponds to a weighted sum problems. By solving these problems, we further obtain all weak Pareto and Pareto solutions of the MOLP and their structure in the constraint space. The algorithm avoids the degeneration problem, which is a major hurdle of previous works, and presents an easy and clear solution structure.     

Tail dependence of random variables from ARCH and heavy-tailed bilinear models

Discussed in this paper is the dependent structure in the tails of distributions of random variables from some heavy-tailed stationary nonlinear time series. One class of models discussed is the first-order autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) process introduced by Engle (1982). The other class is the simple first-order bilinear models driven by heavy-tailed innovations. We give some explicit formulas for the asymptotic values of conditional probabilities used for measuring the tail dependence between two random variables from these models. Our results have significant meanings in finance.     

A class of models for uncorrelated random variables

We consider the class of multivariate distributions that gives the distribution of the sum of uncorrelated random variables by the product of their marginal distributions. This class is defined by a representation of the assumption of sub-independence, formulated previously in terms of the characteristic function and convolution, as a weaker assumption than independence for derivation of the distribution of the sum of random variables. The new representation is in terms of stochastic equivalence and the class of distributions is referred to as the summable uncorrelated marginals (SUM) distributions. The SUM distributions can be used as models for the joint distribution of uncorrelated random variables, irrespective of the strength of dependence between them. We provide a method for the construction of bivariate SUM distributions through linking any pair of identical symmetric probability density functions. We also give a formula for measuring the strength of dependence of the SUM models. A final result shows that under the condition of positive or negative orthant dependence, the SUM property implies independence.     

Characterizing mutual exclusivity as the strongest negative multivariate dependence structure

Mutual exclusivity is an extreme negative dependence structure that was first proposed and studied in Dhaene and Denuit (1999) in the context of insurance risks. In this article, we revisit this notion and present versatile characterizations of mutually exclusive random vectors via their pairwise counter-monotonic behaviour, minimal convex sum property, distributional representation and the characteristic function of the sum of their components. These characterizations highlight the role of mutual exclusivity in generalizing counter-monotonicity as the strongest negative dependence structure in a multi-dimensional setting.     

Tail asymptotics of random sum and maximum of log-normal risks

In this paper we derive the asymptotic behaviour of the survival function of both random sum and random maximum of log-normal risks. As for the case of finite sum and maximum investigated in Asmussen and Rojas-Nandayapa (2008) also for the more general setup of random sums and random maximum the principle of a single big jump holds. We investigate both the log-normal sequences and some related dependence structures motivated by stationary Gaussian sequences.     

Upper comonotonicity

In this article, we study a new notion called upper comonotonicity, which is a generalization of the classical notion of comonotonicity. A random vector is upper-comonotonic if its components are moving in the same direction simultaneously when their values are greater than some thresholds. We provide a characterization of this new notion in terms of both the joint distribution function and the underlying copula. The copula characterization allows us to study the coefficient of upper tail dependence as well as the distributional representation of an upper-comonotonic random vector. As an application to financial economics, we show that the several commonly used risk measures, like the Value-at-Risk, the Tail Value-at-Risk, and the expected shortfall, are additive, not only for sum of comonotonic risks, but also for sum of upper-comonotonic risks, provided that the level of probability is greater than a certain threshold.     

Bounds for randomly shared risk of heavy-tailed loss factors

For a risk vector V, whose components are shared among agents by some random mechanism, we obtain asymptotic lower and upper bounds for the individual agents’ exposure risk and the aggregated risk in the market. Risk is measured by Value-at-Risk or Conditional Tail Expectation. We assume Pareto tails for the components of V and arbitrary dependence structure in a multivariate regular variation setting. Upper and lower bounds are given by asymptotically independent and fully dependent components of V with respect to the tail index α being smaller or larger than 1. Counterexamples, where for non-linear aggregation functions no bounds are available, complete the picture.     

Asymptotic Results for the Sum of Dependent Non-identically Distributed Random Variables

In this paper we extend some results about the probability that the sum of n dependent subexponential random variables exceeds a given threshold u. In particular, the case of non-identically distributed and not necessarily positive random variables is investigated. Furthermore we establish criteria how far the tail of the marginal distribution of an individual summand may deviate from the others so that it still influences the asymptotic behavior of the sum. Finally we explicitly construct a dependence structure for which, even for regularly varying marginal distributions, no asymptotic limit of the tail of the sum exists. Some explicit calculations for diagonal copulas and t-copulas are given. Dominik Kortschak was supported by the Austrian Science Fund Project P18392.     

Improved convex upper bound via conditional comonotonicity

Comonotonicity provides a convenient convex upper bound for a sum of random variables with arbitrary dependence structure. Improved convex upper bound was introduced via conditioning by Kaas et al. [Kaas, R., Dhaene, J., Goovaerts, M., 2000. Upper and lower bounds for sums of random variables. Insurance: Math. Econ. 27, 151-168]. In this paper, we unify these results in a more general context using the concept of conditional comonotonicity. We also construct an approximating sequence of convex upper bounds with nice convergence properties.     

Stochastic Pareto local search: Pareto neighbourhood exploration and perturbation strategies

Pareto local search (PLS) methods are local search algorithms for multi-objective combinatorial optimization problems based on the Pareto dominance criterion. PLS explores the Pareto neighbourhood of a set of non-dominated solutions until it reaches a local optimal Pareto front. In this paper, we discuss and analyse three different Pareto neighbourhood exploration strategies: best, first, and neutral improvement. Furthermore, we introduce a deactivation mechanism that restarts PLS from an archive of solutions rather than from a single solution in order to avoid the exploration of already explored regions. To escape from a local optimal solution set we apply stochastic perturbation strategies, leading to stochastic Pareto local search algorithms (SPLS). We consider two perturbation strategies: mutation and path-guided mutation. While the former is unbiased, the latter is biased towards preserving common substructures between 2 solutions. We apply SPLS on a set of large, correlated bi-objective quadratic assignment problems (bQAPs) and observe that SPLS significantly outperforms multi-start PLS. We investigate the reason of this performance gain by studying the fitness landscape structure of the bQAPs using random walks. The best performing method uses the stochastic perturbation algorithms, the first improvement Pareto neigborhood exploration and the deactivation technique.     

配备FGM Copulas二维随机向量之和的相依性

本文研究了配备Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern Copulas的二维随机向量之和的相依性,得到了在这类Copulas函数下两个独立的随机向量之和的Kendall及Spearman相依系数的一般公式;并针对边缘分布分别为指数分布的情况推导出了具体的公式;证明了当边缘分布满足一定的条件时,不存在尾部相依性.此外,对于几种不同边缘分布的情况进行了随机模拟与比较.这些方法及结果对两个企业(公司)合并后某两个随机指标之间的相依性问题的研究具有理论指导意义,为这类问题的进一步探索提供了理论基础.     

Asymptotic results for conditional measures of association of a random sum

Asymptotic results are obtained for several conditional measures of association. The chosen random variables are the first two order statistics and the total sum within a random sum. Many of the results have confirmed the “one-jump” property of the risk model. Non-trivial limits are obtained when the dependence among the first two order statistics is considered. Our results help in understanding the extreme behaviour of well-known reinsurance treaties that involve only few large claims. Interestingly, the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient between the first two order statistics provides an alternative procedure to estimate the tail index of the underlying distribution.     

Modelling lifetime dependence for older ages using a multivariate Pareto distribution

The main driver of longevity risk is uncertainty in old-age mortality, especially surrounding potential dependence structures. We investigate a multivariate Pareto distribution that allows for the exploration of a variety of applications, from portfolios of standard annuities to joint-life annuity products for couples. Given the anticipated continued increase of supercentenarians, the heavy-tailed nature of the Pareto distribution is appropriate for this application. In past work, it has been shown that even a little dependence between lives can lead to much higher uncertainty. Therefore, the ability to assess and incorporate the appropriate dependence structure, whilst allowing for extreme observations, significantly improves the pricing and risk management of life-benefit products.     

On sums of two counter-monotonic risks

In risk management, capital requirements are most often based on risk measurements of the aggregation of individual risks treated as random variables. The dependence structure between such random variables has a strong impact on the behavior of the aggregate loss. One finds an extensive literature on the study of the sum of comonotonic risks but less, in comparison, has been done regarding the sum of counter-monotonic risks. A crucial result for comonotonic risks is that the Value-at-risk and the Tail Value-at-risk of their sum correspond respectively to the sum of the Value-at-risk and Tail Value-at-risk of the individual risks. In this paper, our main objective is to derive such simple results for the sum of counter-monotonic risks. To do so, we examine separately different contexts in the class of bivariate strictly continuous distributions for which we obtain closed-form expressions for the Value-at-risk and Tail Value-at-risk of the sum of two counter-monotonic risks. The expressions for the subadditive Tail Value-at risk allow us to quantify the maximal diversification benefit. Also, our findings allow us to analyze the tail of the distribution of the sum of two identically subexponentially distributed counter-monotonic random variables.