Multiresolution analysis of fluctuations in non-stationary time series through discrete wavelets

We illustrate the efficacy of a discrete wavelet based approach to characterize fluctuations in non-stationary time series. The present approach complements the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method and is quite accurate for small size data sets. As compared to polynomial fits in the MF-DFA, a single Daubechies wavelet is used here for detrending purposes. The natural, built-in variable window size in wavelet transforms makes this procedure well suited for non-stationary data. We illustrate the working of this method through the analysis of binomial multifractal model. For this model, our results compare well with those calculated analytically and obtained numerically through MF-DFA. To show the efficacy of this approach for finite data sets, we also do the above comparison for Gaussian white noise time series of different sizes. In addition, we analyze time series of three experimental data sets of tokamak plasma and also spin density fluctuations in 2D Ising model.     

Research on the relationship between the multifractality and long memory of realized volatility in the SSECI

We examine the multifractal properties of the realized volatility (RV) and realized bipower variation (RBV) series in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (SSECI) by using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method. We find that there exist distinct multifractal characteristics in the volatility series. The contributions of two different types of source of multifractality, namely, fat-tailed probability distributions and nonlinear temporal correlations, are studied. By using the unit root test, we also find the strength of the multifractality of the volatility time series is insensitive to the sampling frequency but that the long memory of these series is sensitive.     

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of sheep livestock prices in origin

The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to verify whether or not the returns of time series of prices paid to farmers in original markets can be described by the multifractal approach. By way of example, 5 weekly time series of prices of different breeds, slaughter weight and market differentiation from 2000 to 2012 are analyzed. Results obtained from the multifractal parameters and multifractal spectra show that the price series of livestock products are of a multifractal nature. The Hurst exponent shows that these time series are stationary signals, some of which exhibit long memory (Merino milk-fed in Seville and Segureña paschal in Jaen), short memory (Merino paschal in Cordoba and Segureña milk-fed in Jaen) or even are close to an uncorrelated signals (Merino paschal in Seville). MF-DFA is able to discern the different underlying dynamics that play an important role in different types of sheep livestock markets, such as degree and source of multifractality. In addition, the main source of multifractality of these time series is due to the broadness of the probability function, instead of the long-range correlation properties between small and large fluctuations, which play a clearly secondary role.     

Generalized Structure Functions and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis Applied to Vegetation Index Time Series: An Arid Rangeland Study

Estimates suggest that more than 70% of the world’s rangelands are degraded. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is commonly used by ecologists and agriculturalists to monitor vegetation and contribute to more sustainable rangeland management. This paper aims to explore the scaling character of NDVI and NDVI anomaly (NDVIa) time series by applying three fractal analyses: generalized structure function (GSF), multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), and Hurst index (HI). The study was conducted in four study areas in Southeastern Spain. Results suggest a multifractal character influenced by different land uses and spatial diversity. MF-DFA indicated an antipersistent character in study areas, while GSF and HI results indicated a persistent character. Different behaviors of generalized Hurst and scaling exponents were found between herbaceous and tree dominated areas. MF-DFA and surrogate and shuffle series allow us to study multifractal sources, reflecting the importance of long-range correlations in these areas. Two types of long-range correlation appear to be in place due to short-term memory reflecting seasonality and longer-term memory based on a time scale of a year or longer. The comparison of these series also provides us with a differentiating profile to distinguish among our four study areas that can improve land use and risk management in arid rangelands.     

Multifractal moving average analysis and test of multifractal model with tuned correlations

We address two common major problems in the study of time series characterizing fluctuations in complex systems: multifractal analysis and multifractal modeling. Specifically, we introduce a multi-fractal centered moving average (MF-CMA) analysis, which is computationally easier but equivalently performing compared with the well-established multi-fractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) with linear detrending. In addition, we study in detail a generalized binomial multi-fractal model (GB-MFM) to conveniently and reliably generate multifractal surrogate data with arbitrary singularity strengths and arbitrary long-term persistence. We use the data generated by this model as well as realistic, by construction monofractal data series with crossovers and trends to test and compare the multifractal analysis methods and discuss finite-size effects as well as limitations due to spurious multifractality.     

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of the Chinese stock index futures market

Based on the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal spectrum analysis, this paper empirically studies the multifractal properties of the Chinese stock index futures market. Using a total of 2942 ten-minute closing prices, we find that the Chinese stock index futures returns exhibit long-range correlations and multifractality, making the single-scale index insufficient to describe the futures price fluctuations. Further, by comparing the original time series with the transformed time series through shuffling procedure and phase randomization procedure, we show the existence of two different sources of the multifractality for the Chinese stock index futures market. Our results suggest that the multifractality is mainly due to long-range correlations, although the fat-tailed probability distributions also contribute to such multifractal behaviour.     

Multifractal analysis of polyalanines time series

Multifractal properties of the energy time series of short α-helix structures, specifically from a polyalanine family, are investigated through the MF-DFA technique (multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis). Estimates for the generalized Hurst exponent h(q) and its associated multifractal exponents τ(q) are obtained for several series generated by numerical simulations of molecular dynamics in different systems from distinct initial conformations. All simulations were performed using the GROMOS force field, implemented in the program THOR. The main results have shown that all series exhibit multifractal behavior depending on the number of residues and temperature. Moreover, the multifractal spectra reveal important aspects of the time evolution of the system and suggest that the nucleation process of the secondary structures during the visits on the energy hyper-surface is an essential feature of the folding process.     

A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of trading behavior of individual and institutional traders in Tehran stock market

Employing the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA), the multifractal properties of trading behavior of individual and institutional traders in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) are numerically investigated. Using daily trading volume time series of these two categories of traders, the scaling exponents, generalized Hurst exponents, generalized fractal dimensions and singularity spectrum are derived. Furthermore, two main sources of multifractality, i.e. temporal correlations and fat-tailed probability distributions are also examined. We also compare our results with data of S&P 500. Results of this paper suggest that for both classes of investors in TSE, multifractality is mainly due to long-range correlation while for S&P 500, the fat-tailed probability distribution is the main source of multifractality.     

Are crude oil markets multifractal? Evidence from MF-DFA and MF-SSA perspectives

In this article, we investigated the multifractality and its underlying formation mechanisms in international crude oil markets, namely, Brent and WTI, which are the most important oil pricing benchmarks globally. We attempt to find the answers to the following questions: (1) Are those different markets multifractal? (2) What are the dynamical causes for multifractality in those markets (if any)? To answer these questions, we applied both multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal singular spectrum analysis (MF-SSA) based on the partition function, two widely used multifractality detecting methods. We found that both markets exhibit multifractal properties by means of these methods. Furthermore, in order to identify the underlying formation mechanisms of multifractal features, we destroyed the underlying nonlinear temporal correlation by shuffling the original time series; thus, we identified that the causes of the multifractality are influenced mainly by a nonlinear temporal correlation mechanism instead of a non-Gaussian distribution. At last, by tracking the evolution of left- and right-half multifractal spectra, we found that the dynamics of the large price fluctuations is significantly different from that of the small ones. Our main contribution is that we not only provided empirical evidence of the existence of multifractality in the markets, but also the sources of multifractality and plausible explanations to current literature; furthermore, we investigated the different dynamical price behaviors influenced by large and small price fluctuations.     

Relationships of exponents in multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis and conventional multifractal analysis

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is a relatively new method of multifractal analysis. It is extended from detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which was developed for detecting the long-range correlation and the fractal properties in stationary and non-stationary time series. Although MF-DFA has become a widely used method, some relationships among the exponents established in the original paper seem to be incorrect under the general situation. In this paper, we theoretically and experimentally demonstrate the invalidity of the expression τ(q)=qh(q)-1 stipulating the relationship between the multifractal exponent τ(q) and the generalized Hurst exponent h(q). As a replacement, a general relationship is established on the basis of the universal multifractal formalism for the stationary series as τ(q)=qh(q)-qH'-1, where H' is the nonconservation parameter in the universal multifractal formalism. The singular spectra, α and f(α), are also derived according to this new relationship.     

Multifractal analysis of streamflow records of the East River basin (Pearl River), China

Scaling behaviors of the long daily streamflow series of four hydrological stations (Longchuan (1952-2002), Heyuan (1951-2002), Lingxia (1953-2002) and Boluo (1953-2002)) in the mainstream East River, one of the tributaries of the Pearl River (Zhujiang River) basin, were analyzed using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The research results indicated that streamflow series of the East River basin are characterized by anti-persistence. MF-DFA technique showed similar scaling properties in the streamflow series of the East River basin on shorter time scales, indicating universal scaling properties over the East River basin. Different intercept values of the fitted lines of log-log curve of F_q(s) versus s implied hydrological regulation of water reservoirs. Based on the numerical results, we suggested that regulation activities by water reservoirs could not impact the scaling properties of the streamflow series. The regulation activities by water reservoir only influenced the fluctuation magnitude. Therefore, we concluded that the streamflow variations were mainly the results of climate changes, and precipitation variations in particular. Strong dependence of generalized Hurst exponent h(q) on q demonstrated multifractal behavior of streamflow series of the East River basin, showing ‘universal’ multifractal behavior of river runoffs. The results of this study may provide valuable information for prediction and assessment of water resources under impacts of climatic changes and human activities in the East River basin.     

Multifractal properties of the Indian financial market

We investigate the multifractal properties of the logarithmic returns of the Indian financial indices (BSE & NSE) by applying the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The results are compared with that of the US S&P 500 index. Numerically we find that qth-order generalized Hurst exponents h(q) and τ(q) change with the moments q. The nonlinear dependence of these scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum f(α) show that the returns possess multifractality. By comparing the MF-DFA results of the original series to those for the shuffled series, we find that the multifractality is due to the contributions of long-range correlations as well as the broad probability density function. The financial markets studied here are compared with the Binomial Multifractal Model (BMFM) and have a smaller multifractal strength than the BMFM.     

Fractal analysis of river flow fluctuations

We use some fractal analysis methods to study river flow fluctuations. The result of the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) shows that there are two crossover timescales at s_1×∼12 and s_2×∼130 months in the fluctuation function. We discuss how the existence of the crossover timescales are related to a sinusoidal trend. The first crossover is due to the seasonal trend and the value of second one is approximately equal to the well-known cycle of sun activity. Using Fourier Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, the sinusoidal trend is eliminated. The values of Hurst exponents of the runoff water of rivers without the sinusoidal trend show a long-range correlation behavior. For the Daugava river, the value of Hurst exponent is 0.52±0.01 and also we find that these fluctuations have multifractal nature. Comparing the MF-DFA results for the remaining data set of Daugava river to those for shuffled and surrogate series, we conclude that its multifractal nature is almost entirely due to the broadness of probability density function.     

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis for clustering structures of electricity price periods

A new model is proposed to investigate the structure of electricity price in different time periods. A popular method — the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) method is employed to analyze the features achieved from three types of electricity price data after filtering some trends by Fourier detrended fluctuation function. Twelve multifractal parameters are calculated and selected as the characteristic indicators for comparison. Moreover, the minimum number of indicators is determined so that the discriminant accuracy reaches maximum based on Fisher’s linear discriminant algorithm (Fisher’s LDA) for each time period. These indicators form a multi-dimensional space, in which each point represents a price time series. This allows us to cluster the three price time periods, namely, the low price time periods, the average price time periods and the peak price time periods. Fisher’s LDA is employed to evaluate the discriminant accuracy on these three kinds of time periods. Our analysis is then applied to the data in California1999–2000 and PJM2001–2002 electricity markets to demonstrate the applicability of our methods.     

Are developed and emerging agricultural futures markets multifractal? A comparative perspective

Although there are many reports on the empirical evidence of the existence of multifractality in various financial or commodity markets in current literature, few can be found to compare the multifractal properties of emerging and developed economies, especially for agricultural futures markets in those countries (regions). We therefore chose China as the representative of the transition and emerging economies, and USA as the representative of developed ones. We attempt to find the answers to the following questions: (1) Are all those different markets multifractal? (2) What are the dynamical causes for multifractality in those markets (if any)? (3) Are the multifractality strengths in those markets of the transition and emerging economies weaker (or stronger) than those of the developed ones? To answer these questions, Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA) are applied to study some of the representative agricultural futures markets in China and USA, namely, wheat, soy meal, soybean and corn. Our results suggest that all the markets of China and USA exhibit multifractal properties except US soybean market, which is much closer to mono-fractal comparing with China’s soybean market. To investigate the sources of multifractality, shuffling and phase randomization procedures are applied to destroy the temporal correlations and non-Gaussian distributions respectively. We found that multifractality can be mainly attributed to the non-Gaussian probability distribution and secondarily to the nonlinear temporal correlation mechanism for all the markets, except US soybean and soy meal, which derives from some other unknown factors. Furthermore, the average of τ(q) are applied to obtain the multifractal spectra of the two markets as a whole. The results show that the width of the multifractal spectrum of US agricultural futures markets is significantly narrower than that of China’s. Based on our findings, we proposed a hypothesis that the strength of multifractality in developed economies may be weaker than that in emerging and transition ones.     

Dynamics of bid–ask spread return and volatility of the Chinese stock market

The bid–ask spread is taken as an important measure of the financial market liquidity. In this article, we study the dynamics of the spread return and the spread volatility of four liquid stocks in the Chinese stock market, including the memory effect and the multifractal nature. By investigating the autocorrelation function and the Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), we find that the spread return is the lack of long-range memory, while the spread volatility is long-range time correlated. Besides, the spread volatilities of different stocks present long-range cross-correlations. Moreover, by applying the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA), the spread return is observed to possess a strong multifractality, which is similar to the dynamics of a variety of financial quantities. Different from the spread return, the spread volatility exhibits a weak multifractal nature.     

Size selected growth of nanodots: analytical prediction for the selected size

We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States in the period from 1991 until 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum features for all four cases. To observe the effect of the Asian currency crisis, we also estimate the multifractal spectra of limited series before and after the crisis. We find that the Korean and Thai foreign exchange markets experienced a significant increase in multifractality compared to Hong-Kong and Japan. We also show that the multifractality is stronger related to the presence of high values of returns in the series.     

Scaling in the bombay stock exchange index

In this paper we study Bombay stock exchange (BSE) index financial time series for fractal and multifractal behaviour. We show that BSE index time series is monofractal and can be represented by a fractional Brownian motion.