Statistical structuring theory in parametrically excitable dynamical systems with a Gaussian pump

Based on the idea of the statistical topography, we analyze the problem of emergence of stochastic structure formation in linear and quasilinear problems described by first-order partial differential equations. The appearance of a parametric excitation on the background of a Gaussian pump is a specific feature of these problems. We obtain equations for the probability density of the solutions of these equations, whence it follows that the stochastic structure formation emerges with probability one, i.e., for almost every realization of the random parameters of the medium.     

Quantitative stability analysis of stochastic quasi-variational inequality problems and applications

We consider a parametric stochastic quasi-variational inequality problem (SQVIP for short) where the underlying normal cone is defined over the solution set of a parametric stochastic cone system. We investigate the impact of variation of the probability measure and the parameter on the solution of the SQVIP. By reformulating the SQVIP as a natural equation and treating the orthogonal projection over the solution set of the parametric stochastic cone system as an optimization problem, we effectively convert stability of the SQVIP into that of a one stage stochastic program with stochastic cone constraints. Under some moderate conditions, we derive Hölder outer semicontinuity and continuity of the solution set against the variation of the probability measure and the parameter. The stability results are applied to a mathematical program with stochastic semidefinite constraints and a mathematical program with SQVIP constraints.     

Distribution sensitivity in stochastic programming

In this paper, stochastic programming problems are viewed as parametric programs with respect to the probability distributions of the random coefficients. General results on quantitative stability in parametric optimization are used to study distribution sensitivity of stochastic programs. For recourse and chance constrained models quantitative continuity results for optimal values and optimal solution sets are proved (with respect to suitable metrics on the space of probability distributions). The results are useful to study the effect of approximations and of incomplete information in stochastic programming.This research was presented in parts at the 4th International Conference on Stochastic Programming held in Prague in September 1986.     

On stochastic orderings of the Wilcoxon Rank Sum test statistic—With applications to reproducibility probability estimation testing

Recently, the possibility of testing statistical hypotheses through the estimate of the reproducibility probability (i.e. the estimate of the power of the statistical test) in a general parametric framework has been introduced. In this paper, we provide some results on the stochastic orderings of the Wilcoxon Rank Sum (WRS) statistic, implying, for example, that the related test is strictly unbiased. Moreover, under some regularity conditions, we show that it is possible to define a continuous and strictly monotone power function of the WRS test. This last result is useful in order to obtain a point estimator and lower bounds for the power of the WRS test. In analogy with the parametric setting, we show that these power estimators, alias reproducibility probability estimators, can be used as test statistic, i.e. it is possible to refer directly to the estimate of the reproducibility probability to perform the WRS test. Some reproducibility probability estimators based on asymptotic approximations of the power are provided. A brief simulation shows a very high agreement between the approximated reproducibility probability based tests and the classical one.     

Hölder and Lipschitz stability of solution sets in programs with probabilistic constraints

We study perturbations of a stochastic program with a probabilistic constraint and r-concave original probability distribution. First we improve our earlier results substantially and provide conditions implying Hölder continuity properties of the solution sets w.r.t. the Kolmogorov distance of probability distributions. Secondly, we derive an upper Lipschitz continuity property for solution sets under more restrictive conditions on the original program and on the perturbed probability measures. The latter analysis applies to linear-quadratic models and is based on work by Bonnans and Shapiro. The stability results are illustrated by numerical tests showing the different asymptotic behaviour of parametric and nonparametric estimates in a program with a normal probabilistic constraint.Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 90C15, 90C31     

Quantitative stability of mixed-integer two-stage quadratic stochastic programs

For our introduced mixed-integer quadratic stochastic program with fixed recourse matrices, random recourse costs, technology matrix and right-hand sides, we study quantitative stability properties of its optimal value function and optimal solution set when the underlying probability distribution is perturbed with respect to an appropriate probability metric. To this end, we first establish various Lipschitz continuity results about the value function and optimal solutions of mixed-integer parametric quadratic programs with parameters in the linear part of the objective function and in the right-hand sides of linear constraints. The obtained results extend earlier results about quantitative stability properties of stochastic integer programming and stability results for mixed-integer parametric quadratic programs.     

Estimation of derivatives with respect to parameters of a functional of a diffusion process moving in a domain with absorbing boundary

A statistical method is proposed for estimating derivatives with respect to parameters of a functional of a diffusion process moving in a domain with absorbing boundary. The functional considered defines the probability representation of the solution of a corresponding parabolic first boundary-value problem. The problem posed is tackled by numerically solving stochastic differential equations (SDE) using the Euler method. An error of the proposed method is evaluated, and estimates of the variance of the resultant parametric derivatives are given. Some numerical results are presented.     

Optimizing an objective function under a bivariate probability model

The motivation of this paper is to obtain an analytical closed form of a quadratic objective function arising from a stochastic decision process with bivariate exponential probability distribution functions that may be dependent. This method is applicable when results need to be offered in an analytical closed form without double integrals. However, the study only applies to cases where the correlation coefficient between the two variables is positive or null. A stochastic, stationary objective function, involving a single decision variable in a quadratic form is studied. We use a primitive of a bivariate exponential distribution as first expressed by Downton [Downton, F., 1970. Bivariate exponential distributions in reliability theory. Journal of Royal Statistical Society B 32, 408–417] and revisited in Iliopoulos [Iliopoulos, George., 2003. Estimation of parametric functions in Downton’s bivariate exponential distribution. Journal of statistical planning and inference 117, 169–184]. With this primitive, optimization of objective functions in Operations Research, supply chain management or any other setting involving two random variables, or calculations which involve evaluating conditional expectations of two joint random variables are direct. We believe the results can be extended to other cases where exponential bivariates are encountered in economic objective function evaluations. Computation algorithms are offered which substantially reduce computation time when solving numerical examples.     

Scenario Reduction Algorithms in Stochastic Programming

We consider convex stochastic programs with an (approximate) initial probability distribution P having finite support supp P, i.e., finitely many scenarios. The behaviour of such stochastic programs is stable with respect to perturbations of P measured in terms of a Fortet-Mourier probability metric. The problem of optimal scenario reduction consists in determining a probability measure that is supported by a subset of supp P of prescribed cardinality and is closest to P in terms of such a probability metric. Two new versions of forward and backward type algorithms are presented for computing such optimally reduced probability measures approximately. Compared to earlier versions, the computational performance (accuracy, running time) of the new algorithms has been improved considerably. Numerical experience is reported for different instances of scenario trees with computable optimal lower bounds. The test examples also include a ternary scenario tree representing the weekly electrical load process in a power management model.     

Modeling of non-stationary ground motion using the mean reverting stochastic process

This paper presents a new method for modeling amplitude and frequency non-stationary earthquake ground motions using a scalar first order dynamic mean reverting stochastic differential equation driven by Brownian motion with parametric time varying coefficients. It determines the proper relationship between these time varying parametric coefficients and presents the statistical and probability distribution characteristics of the response solution. It demonstrates the applicability of the method by presenting some simulations of amplitude and frequency non-stationary earthquake ground motions. The verification of the amplitude and frequency non-stationary contents of the mean reverting stochastic ground motions is demonstrated using the Hilbert–Huang transform method. Also a corresponding interpretation between the coefficients of the proposed model and the coefficients of the usual oscillatory second order differential equation driven by white Gaussian noise is presented along with some comments how it can be applied to simulate ground motions consistent with acceleration target records such as boxcar, trapezoidal, other exponential functions, or compound and target records at source, near field, and far field distances.     

Sufficient conditions for the eventual strong Feller property for degenerate stochastic evolutions

The strong Feller property is an important quality of Markov semigroups which helps for example in establishing uniqueness of invariant measure. Unfortunately degenerate stochastic evolutions, such as stochastic delay equations, do not possess this property. However the eventual strong Feller property is sufficient in establishing uniqueness of invariant probability measure. In this paper we provide operator theoretic conditions under which a stochastic evolution equation with additive noise possesses the eventual strong Feller property. The results are used to establish uniqueness of invariant probability measure for stochastic delay equations and stochastic partial differential equations with delay, with an application in neural networks.     

Stochastic stability and bifurcation for the chronic state in Marchuk’s model with noise

A stochastic differential equation modelling a Marchuk’s model is investigated. The stochasticity in the model is introduced by parameter perturbation which is a standard technique in stochastic population modelling. Firstly, the stochastic Marchuk’s model has been simplified by applying stochastic center manifold and stochastic average theory. Secondly, by using Lyapunov exponent and singular boundary theory, we analyze the local stochastic stability and global stochastic stability for stochastic Marchuk’s model, respectively. Thirdly, we explore the stochastic bifurcation of the stochastic Marchuk’s model according to invariant measure and stationary probability density. Some new criteria ensuring stochastic pitchfork bifurcation and P-bifurcation for stochastic Marchuk’s model are obtained, respectively.     

Parametric modeling of protein–DNA binding kinetics: A discrete event based simulation approach

To understand the stochastic behavior of biological systems, we adopt an “in silico” stochastic event based simulation methodology that can determine the temporal dynamics of different molecules. The main requirement for this technique is the event execution time models for the different biological functions of the system. This paper presents a parametric model to determine the execution time of one such biological function: protein–DNA binding. This biological function is modeled as a combination of microlevel biological events using a coarse-grained probability measure to estimate the stochastic parameters of the function. Our model considers the actual binding mechanism along with some approximated protein and DNA structural information. We use a collision theory based approach to transform the thermal and concentration gradients of this biological function into their corresponding probability measure. This information theoretic approach significantly removes the complexity of the classical protein sliding along the DNA model, improves the speed of computation and can bypass the speed-stability paradox. This model can produce acceptable estimates of DNA–protein binding time necessary for our event based stochastic system simulator where the higher order (more than second order statistics) uncertainties can be ignored. The results show good correspondence with available experimental estimates. The model depends very little on experimentally generated rate constants and brings the important biological parameters and functions into consideration. We also present some “in silico” results showing the effects of protein–DNA binding on gene expression in prokaryotic cells.     

On the Esscher transforms and other equivalent martingale measures for Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard stochastic volatility models with jumps

We compute and then discuss the Esscher martingale transform for exponential processes, the Esscher martingale transform for linear processes, the minimal martingale measure, the class of structure preserving martingale measures, and the minimum entropy martingale measure for stochastic volatility models of the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type as introduced by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard. We show that in the model with leverage, with jumps both in the volatility and in the returns, all those measures are different, whereas in the model without leverage, with jumps in the volatility only and a continuous return process, several measures coincide, some simplifications can be made and the results are more explicit. We illustrate our results with parametric examples used in the literature.     

On the consistency of the MLE for Ornstein–Uhlenbeck and other selfdecomposable processes

In this paper we give easy to verify conditions for the strong consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) in the case when data is sampled from a parametric family of selfdecomposable distributions. The difficulty arises from the fact that standard conditions for the consistency of the MLE are based on the pdf, which, for most selfdecomposable distributions, is not available in a closed form. Instead, our conditions are based on properties of the Lévy triplet (i.e. the Lévy measure, the Gaussian part, and the shift) of the distribution. Further, we extend out results to certain selfdecomposable stochastic processes, and, in particular, we give conditions in the case when the data is sampled from a Lévy or an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process.     

Stochastic persistence and stability analysis of a modified Holling–Tanner model

The article aims to study the basic dynamical features of a modified Holling–Tanner prey–predator model with ratio‐dependent functional response. We have proved the global existence of the solution for the deterministic model. The parametric restriction for persistence of both species is also obtained along with the proof of local asymptotic stability of the interior equilibrium point(s). Conditions for local bifurcations of interior equilibrium points are provided. The global dynamic behavior is examined thoroughly with supportive numerical simulation results. Next, we have formulated the stochastic model by perturbing the intrinsic growth rates of prey and predator populations with white noise terms. The existence uniqueness of solutions for stochastic model is established. Further, we have derived the parametric restrictions required for the persistence of the stochastic model. Finally, we have discussed the stochastic stability results in terms of the first and second order moments. Numerical simulation results are provided to support the analytical findings. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On differential stability in stochastic programming

In this paper optimal solutions of a stochastic programming problem are considered as functions of the underlying probability distribution. Their directional derivatives, in the sense of Gâteaux, are calculated by applying some recent results from the sensitivity analysis of nonlinear programs. These derivatives are employed as a heuristic device in order to derive the asymptotic distribution of statistical estimators of the optimal solutions.     

On structure and stability in stochastic programs with random technology matrix and complete integer recourse

For two-stage stochastic programs with integrality constraints in the second stage, we study continuity properties of the expected recourse as a function both of the first-stage policy and the integrating probability measure.Sufficient conditions for lower semicontinuity, continuity and Lipschitz continuity with respect to the first-stage policy are presented. Furthermore, joint continuity in the policy and the probability measure is established. This leads to conclusions on the stability of optimal values and optimal solutions to the two-stage stochastic program when subjecting the underlying probability measure to perturbations.This research is supported by the Schwerpunktprogramm Anwendungsbezogene Optimierung und Steuerung of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.The main part of the paper was written while the author was an assistant at the Department of Mathematics at Humboldt University Berlin.     

Existence and properties of a static solution to a nonhomogeneous Burgers equation

A problem of expansion of nonlinear waves in a heterogeneous media is considered, this problem is described by a Burgers equation with a stochastic right-hand side. Existence of a statistical solution is proved and sufficient conditions are obtained for such properties as uniformity (independence on translation) of the probability measure of the solution, stationarity and ergodicity.     

Convergence,boundedness, and ergodicity of regime-switching diusion processes with infinite memory

We study a class of diffusion processes, which are determined by solutions X(t) to stochastic functional differential equation with infinite memory and random switching represented by Markov chain Λ(t): Under suitable conditions, we investigate convergence and boundedness of both the solutions X(t) and the functional solutions X_t: We show that two solutions (resp., functional solutions) from different initial data living in the same initial switching regime will be close with high probability as time variable tends to infinity, and that the solutions (resp., functional solutions) are uniformly bounded in the mean square sense. Moreover, we prove existence and uniqueness of the invariant probability measure of two-component Markov-Feller process (X_t,Λ(t)); and establish exponential bounds on the rate of convergence to the invariant probability measure under Wasserstein distance. Finally, we provide a concrete example to illustrate our main results.