On Approximating Lead Time Demand Distributions Using the Generalised λ-type Distribution

In this paper the use of the generalised λ-type distribution (GLD) is proposed for the analysis of standard inventory problems. Using this distribution to approximate the lead time demand distribution we analyse the generalised newsboy problem and a (Q, r) policy. The standard inventory measures like optimal order size, reorder level, average demand lost, etc. are obtained under the GLD and are compared with those given by Shore's approximation and also under exact distributional assumptions. Through a numerical study the various inventory measures are compared using the GLD and Shore's approximation with the exact distributions. The comparison reveals that the GLD approximation is better suited than Shore's approximation to model the lead time demand.     

An inventory model: What is the influence of the shape of the lead time demand distribution?

In this paper the influence of the shape of the lead time demand distribution is studied for a specific inventory model which is described in a preceding paper by Heuts and van Lieshout [4]. This continuous review inventory model uses as lead time demand distribution a Schmeiser-Deutsch distribution (S-D distribution) [9]. In a previous paper [4] an algorithm was given to solve the decision problem.In the literature attention is given to the following problem: what information on the demand during the lead time is necessary and sufficient to obtain good decisions. Using a (s, S) policy; Naddor [8] concluded that thespecific form of the lead time demand distribution is negligible, and that only its first two moments are essential. For a simple (s, q) control system Fortuin [3] comes to the same conclusion. Both authors analysed the case with known lead times and with given demand distributions from the class of two parameter distributions. So in fact their results are obvious, as the lead time demand distributions resulting from their suppositions are all nearly symmetric. We shall demonstrate that the skewness of the lead time demand distribution in our inventory model is also an important measure, which should be taken into account, as the cost differences with regard to the case where this skewness measure is not used, can be considerable.     

Effects of Centralization on Expected Costs in a Multi-location Newsboy Problem

This is a single-period, single-product inventory model with several individual sources of demand. It is a multi-location problem with an opportunity for centralization. The holding and penalty cost functions at each location are assumed to be identical. Two types of inventory system are considered in this paper: the decentralized system and the centralized system. The decentralized system is a system in which a separate inventory is kept to satisfy the demand at each source of demand. The centralized system is a system in which all demands are satisfied from one central warehouse. This paper demonstrates that, for any probability distribution of a location's demands, the following properties are always true: given that the holding and penalty cost functions are identical at all locations, (1) if the holding and penalty cost functions are concave functions, then the expected holding and penalty costs in a decentralized system exceed those in a centralized system, except that (2) if the holding and penalty cost functions are linear functions, and for any i≠j, P_ij, the coefficient of correlation between the ith location's demand and the jth location's demand is equal to 1, then the expected holding and penalty costs in a decentralized system are equal to those in a centralized system.     

Learning-by-doing may not be enough to sustain competitiveness in a market

The economic order quantity model and its variants are the oldest reported scientific inventory models in the literature. They are mathematically simple to use and understand. This characteristic contributed to their popularity. However, they have limitations that restrict their application in practice. Researchers have extended those models by relaxing some of their restrictive assumptions. One of the main limitations of the EOQ model is the estimation of its cost parameters, such as setup and holding costs, which include some hidden (or difficult to estimate) components. Emerging research proposes using the second law of thermodynamics when to measure the hidden (entropy) costs of inventory systems. Another research stream focuses on learning-by-doing, which reduces the unit cost of a product, thus reducing its price and enhancing a firm's competitiveness. This paper assumes that a buyer receives a shipment from its vendor following the EOQ model. The buyer invests in the vendor's process to accelerate learning (mainly workers training, among other things). The buyer's unit purchase cost reduces because of learning at the vendor's side. The buyer's competitors also learn, increasing competitiveness. For this purpose, we develop an EOQ model where price-dependent demand is analogous to a heat transfer equation, which is used to determine the entropy cost. It accounts for improvement by learning as a result of the buyer's investment to compete in a market. The implementation and management of improvement programs are not usually smooth, resulting in disorder quantified by an entropy cost function. The developed EOQ model is investigated with and without entropy costs. Numerical results representing different scenarios are provided to illustrate the behavior of the models and identify the factors affecting the decision variables and, subsequently, the buyer's profitability. The results showed that in a competitive market, the buyer has to maintain a learning rate faster than those of its competitors to ensure a prolonged, but indefinite, profitability. The results also showed that investment in learning is meaningful when the competition is fierce.     

Proposal of a new distribution in PERT methodology

The aim of this paper is to present the generalized biparabolic distribution (GBP) as a good candidate to be utilized as the distribution underlying to PERT methodology (Malcolm et al. in Oper. Res. 7:646–669, 1959). To do this and following the criteria established by Taha (Investigación de Operaciones, 1981) and Herrerías (Estudios de Economía Aplicada, pp. 89–112, 1989), we will compare the mean and variance estimates derived from each proposed density function, viz beta, two-sided power (TSP) and GBP distributions. Also we will compare the estimates contributed by the mesokurtic and of constant variance families of the aforementioned distributions. The main conclusion is that the GBP distribution is the most convenient to be used in the PERT methodology because its mean is almost as moderate as that of trapezoidal and its variance is much higher than that of the rest of distributions. As a consequence, it can be stated that the GBP distribution is an alternative to the other four-parameter distributions.     

EOQ under Date-terms Supplier Credit: A Near-optimal Solution

This paper shows that under date-terms supplier credit, making explicit the separate effects of carrying cost, the financing and other marginal holding costs, does not invalidate Kingsman's original result that the optimal order quantity is given by an integer multiple of monthly demands, provided the capital investment component of the inventory holding costs is equal to or greater than 30% of the component due to the physical holding of inventory. The analysis is extended to the case when orders of less than a month's demand are optimal. Here it is shown that the order quantity should be an integer fraction of a month's demand, provided that the capital investment component of the inventory holding charge is equal to or greater than one quarter of the component due to the physical holding of inventory. It is argued that these conditions are likely to be satisfied for most if not all practical inventory situations. Combining these results with those of Carlson and Rousseau leads to a simple formula for the general optimal policy. The EOQ can still be expressed as a simple formula, so for practical situations generally there is no need to use the numerical search procedure these authors propose.     

Forecasting for the ordering and stock-holding of spare parts

A modern military organization like the UK's Royal Air Force is dependent on readily available spare parts for in-service aircraft in order to maximize operational capability. A large proportion of spare parts are known to have an intermittent or slow-moving demand pattern, presenting particular problems as far as forecasting and inventory control are concerned. In this paper, we use extensive demand and replenishment lead-time data to assess the practical value of forecasting models put forward in the literature for addressing these problems. We use an analytical method for classifying the consumable inventory into smooth, irregular, slow-moving and intermittent demand patterns. Recent forecasting developments are compared against more commonly used methods across the identified demand patterns. One recently developed method, a modification to Croston's method referred to as the approximation method, is observed to provide significant reductions in the value of the stock-holdings required to attain a specified service level for all demand patterns.     

Evaluation of (R,Q)-policies for two-level inventory systems with generally distributed customer inter-arrival times

In this paper we consider a two-level inventory system with a central warehouse and a number of retailers. All facilities apply continuous review (R,Q)-policies. We first extend Forsberg's exact Poisson model to the case with unit demand and customer inter-arrival times that are Erlang distributed. In the case with generally distributed customer inter-arrival times we approximate by Erlang distributions. We use two different methods to choose the approximate Erlang distribution. The first method means that we, for each retailer, choose the Erlang distribution that has the exact mean and minimum difference in standard deviation. Our second method means that we, for each retailer, choose the Erlang distribution of customer inter-arrival times that gives the exact mean and minimum difference in the standard deviation of the demand per unit of time instead of the inter-arrival time. Both methods are tested on 38 simulated cases. In all cases both methods give the same approximation.     

Optimizing delivery lead time/inventory placement in a two-stage production/distribution system

In this paper we study a system composed of a supplier and buyer(s). We assume that the buyer faces random demand with a known distribution function. The supplier faces a known production lead time. The main objective of this study is to determine the optimal delivery lead time and the resulting location of the system inventory. In a system with a single-supplier and a single-buyer it is shown that system inventory should not be split between a buyer and supplier. Based on system parameters of shortage and holding costs, production lead times, and standard deviations of demand distributions, conditions indicating when the supplier or buyer(s) should keep the system inventory are derived. The impact of changes to these parameters on the location of system inventory is examined. For the case with multiple buyers, it is found that the supplier holds inventory for the buyers with the smallest standard deviations, while the buyers with the largest standard deviations hold their own inventory.     

On the categorization of demand patterns

The categorization of alternative demand patterns facilitates the selection of a forecasting method and it is an essential element of many inventory control software packages. The common practice in the inventory control software industry is to arbitrarily categorize those demand patterns and then proceed to select an estimation procedure and optimize the forecast parameters. Alternatively, forecasting methods can be directly compared, based on some theoretically quantified error measure, for the purpose of establishing regions of superior performance and then define the demand patterns based on the results. It is this approach that is discussed in this paper and its application is demonstrated by considering EWMA, Croston's method and an alternative to Croston's estimator developed by the first two authors of this paper. Comparison results are based on a theoretical analysis of the mean square error due to its mathematically tractable nature. The categorization rules proposed are expressed in terms of the average inter-demand interval and the squared coefficient of variation of demand sizes. The validity of the results is tested on 3000 real-intermittent demand data series coming from the automotive industry.     

An Example of Disbenefits of Centralized Stocking

This paper deals with a single-period, single-product inventory model. It is a multilocation problem with an opportunity for centralization. In the centralized system, the location's demands are satisfied from one central warehouse whose orders are processed on a first come, first served basis. The inventory size will be constrained to meet a specific maximum probability of being out of stock at each location. Under these assumptions, Stulman argues that a centralized system requires a lower total starting inventory than the equivalent decentralized one. We shall present a counter example showing that, under conditions where an 86% probability of stockouts is the maximum acceptable, a higher total starting inventory may be required by centralizing two locations' stock-holdings.     

Variational iteration method for solving twelfth-order boundary-value problems using He’s polynomials

In this paper, we apply the variational iteration method using He’s polynomials (VIMHP) for solving the twelfth-order boundary-value problems. The proposed method is an elegant combination of variational iteration and the homotopy perturbation methods. The suggested algorithm is quite efficient and is practically well suited for use in these problems. The suggested iterative scheme finds the solution without any discretization, linearization, or restrictive assumptions. Several examples are given to verify the reliability and efficiency of the method. The fact that the proposed technique solves nonlinear problems without using Adomian’s polynomials can be considered as a clear advantage of this algorithm over the decomposition method.     

A Statistical Analysis of Risk in Capital Investment Projects

The object of this paper is twofold: first, to present a brief survey of the various techniques used in the measurement of risk in capital investment proposals; second, to show how, under certain assumptions, the probability distributions of the two most commonly used profitability criterion functions, viz. Net Present Value and Internal Rate of Return, can be obtained. This approach was first presented by Hillier in a paper published in Management Science for the single investment case. It was further generalized by him to the case of interrelated investments in an outstanding paper published in July 1964 as Technical Report No. 73 under contract with the office of Naval Research. These papers are theoretically oriented. The present paper discusses Hillier's approach and considers some numerical examples showing how the approach can be implemented in practice. Secondly, the starting point of Hillier's analysis are the means and variances of cash flows. In many situations these may not be known directly. What may be available are the means and variances of factors which make up these cash flows. The present paper discusses methods for handling such situations.     

The Hertz contact problem,coupled Volterra integral equations and a linear complementarity problem

This paper is concerned with the indentation of an elastic half-space by an axisymmetric punch under a monotonically applied normal force and under the assumption of Coulomb friction with coefficient μ$\mu$ in the region of contact. Within an inner (unknown) circle the contact is adhesive, while in the surrounding annulus the surface moves inwards with increasing load. In this paper it is shown how this problem is equivalent to two coupled Abel's equations with an unknown free point, the inner circumference of the annulus. It is further shown that a product integration finite difference approximation of those integral equations leads to a mixed linear complementarity problem (mixed LCP). A method based on Newton's method for solving non-smooth nonlinear equations is demonstrated to converge under restrictive assumptions on the physical parameters defining the system; and numerical experimentation verifies that it has much wider applicability. The method is also validated against the approach of Spence. The advantage of the mixed LCP formulation is that it provides the radius of the inner adhesive circle directly using the physical parameters of the problem.     

Using bid data for the management of sequential,multi-unit,online auctions with uniformly distributed bidder valuations

Internet auctions for consumers’ goods are an increasingly popular selling venue. We have observed that many sellers, instead of offering their entire inventory in a single auction, split it into sequential auctions of smaller lots, thereby reducing the negative market impact of larger lots. Information technology also makes it possible to collect and analyze detailed bid data from online auctions. In this paper, we develop and test a new model of sequential online auctions to explore the potential benefits of using real bid data from earlier auctions to improve the management of future auctions. Assuming a typical truth-revealing auction model, we quantify the effect of the lot size on the closing price and derive a closed-form solution for the problem of allocating inventory across multiple auctions when bidder valuation distributions are known. We also develop a decision methodology for allocating inventory across multiple auctions that dynamically incorporates the results of previous auctions as feedback into the management of subsequent auctions, and updating the lot size and number of auctions. We demonstrate how information signals from previous auctions can be used to update the auctioneer’s beliefs about the customers’ valuation distribution, and then to significantly increase the seller’s profit potential. We use several examples to reveal the benefits of using detailed transaction data for the management of sequential, multi-unit, online auctions and we demonstrate how these benefits are influenced by the inventory holding costs, the number of bidders, and the dispersion of consumers’ valuations.     

Dynamic inventory system with pricing adjustment for price-comparison shoppers

With numerous price-comparison websites and applications, consumers today are frequently conducting price-comparison shopping. As a result, retailers face an increasing challenge in predicting consumer demand and determining the optimal product price and inventory level accordingly. To address this issue, this paper proposes an inventory model with joint decisions of price and inventory to optimize the retailer's long-run average profit under price-comparison consumer shopping. We first formulate the demand arrival process for a retailer under price-comparison shopping to be affected by not only its own price but also its competitors'. Based on this demand arrival process, we then formulate the retailer's long-run average profit and derive properties of its optimal solution. Our model focuses on capturing the impact of price-comparison consumers on a retailer's optimal price and inventory decisions. In particular, we allow competitors' prices to affect the retailer's demand via two key factors: the manufacturer's suggested price and the variability of the outside lowest price. According to our results, when the suggested price increases, the retailer should lower its price to obtain more price-comparison customers from competitors, whereas when the variability of outside lowest price increases, the retailer should raise its price to increase per unit profit from nonprice-comparison customers.     

Control of Cash Reserves

The following paper deals with a special type of inventory control problem in which the commodity to be controlled is cash. An insurance company holds a reserve of cash, part of which is invested in short-term loans, the balance being held on current account in a bank. The company draws on the balance to meet the requirements of the company's stockbrokers, who invest money on its behalf, and to meet claims and expenses. If these drawings are large, an overdraft may result. Thus, as distinct from standard inventory problems, in this problem storage and penalty costs are well defined. The paper has two main features. Firstly, an approximate solution is found using characteristics of the optimal solution determined by dynamic programming. Secondly, an algorithm for long-duration processes of this type is derived.     

Economic Order Quantities with Inflation

The classical EOQ formula assumes that all relevant costs and prices are constant. In this paper it is shown that with inflation the choice of the inventory carrying charge used in the EOQ formula depends on the company's pricing policy. If prices change independently of replenishment order timing the inventory charge should be low and independent of the inflation rate. However, when no "double ticketing" is permitted and the company uses a constant percentage mark up the carrying charge is high and depends on the inflation rate and the mark-up. Only if the company is allowed a fixed monetary margin is the classical result for carrying charge valid.     

A unified approach to testing for and against a set of linear inequality constraints in the product multinomial setting

A problem that is frequently encountered in statistics concerns testing for equality of multiple probability vectors corresponding to independent multinomials against an alternative they are not equal. In applications where an assumption of some type of stochastic ordering is reasonable, it is desirable to test for equality against this more restrictive alternative. Similar problems have been considered heretofore using the likelihood ratio approach. This paper aims to generalize the existing results and provide a unified technique for testing for and against a set of linear inequality constraints placed upon on any probability vectors corresponding to r independent multinomials. The paper shows how to compute the maximum likelihood estimates under all hypotheses of interest and obtains the limiting distributions of the likelihood ratio test statistics. These limiting distributions are of chi bar square type and the expression of the weighting values is given. To illustrate our theoretical results, we use a real life data set to test against second-order stochastic ordering.     

The effect of lifetime buys on warranty repair operations

Lifetime buys are a common practice in the electronics and telecommunication industries. Under this practice, manufacturers procure their repair parts inventory in one order to support the spare part needs of a product for the duration of its warranty repair period. In this paper, we consider a repair operation in which defective items under warranty are returned to a manufacturer who either repairs these items using its spare parts inventory or replaces each defective unit with a new product. We show how fixed repair capability costs, variable repair costs, inventory holding costs, and replacement costs affect a firm's optimal repair and replacement decisions. The model is used to gain insights for products from a major mobile device manufacturer in the United States.