An inventory model for a deteriorating item with displayed stock dependent demand under fuzzy inflation and time discounting over a random planning horizon

An inventory model for a deteriorating item (seasonal product) with linearly displayed stock dependent demand is developed in imprecise environment (involving both fuzzy and random parameters) under inflation and time value of money. It is assumed that time horizon, i.e., period of business is random and follows exponential distribution with a known mean. The resultant effect of inflation and time value of money is assumed as fuzzy in nature. The particular case, when resultant effect of inflation and time value is crisp in nature, is also analyzed. A genetic algorithm (GA) is developed with roulette wheel selection, arithmetic crossover, random mutation. For crisp inflation effect, the total expected profit for the planning horizon is maximized using the above GA to derive optimal inventory decision. On the other hand when inflationary effect is fuzzy then the above expected profit is fuzzy in nature too. Since optimization of fuzzy objective is not well defined, the optimistic/pessimistic return of the expected profit is obtained using possibility/necessity measure of fuzzy event. Fuzzy simulation process is proposed to determine this optimistic/pessimistic return. Finally a fuzzy simulation based GA is developed and is used to maximize the above optimistic/pessimistic return to get optimal decision. The models are illustrated with some numerical examples and some sensitivity analyses have been presented.     

Updating of moments

Consider a statistical model, given by the distribution of the observation X, conditional on the parameter θ, and the prior distribution of the parameter θ. Let H_x denote the function that maps the prior mean and the prior covariance matrix into the posterior mean and the posterior covariance matrix, when X = x is observed. We prove that if the conditional distribution of X belongs to an exponential family, then the function H_x characterizes the distribution of Xθ.     

Discrete time parametric models with long memory and infinite variance

We study a large class of infinite variance time series that display long memory. They can be represented as linear processes (infinite order moving averages) with coefficients that decay slowly to zero and with innovations that are in the domain of attraction of a stable distribution with index 1 < α < 2 (stable fractional ARIMA is a particular example). Assume that the coefficients of the linear process depend on an unknown parameter vector β which is to be estimated from a series of length n. We show that a Whittle-type estimator β_n for β is consistent (β_n converges to the true value β₀ in probability as n → ∞), and, under some additional conditions, we characterize the limiting distribution of the rescaled differences (n/logn)^1/ga(β_n − β₀).     

Asymptotic properties of Cramér-Smirnov statistics—A new approach

Let Y₁,…, Y_n be independent identically distributed random variables with distribution function F(x, θ), θ = (θ′₁, θ′₂), where θ_i (i = 1, 2) is a vector of p_i components, p = p₁ + p₂ and for θI, an open interval in ^p, F(x, θ) is continuous. In the present paper the author shows that the asymptotic distribution of modified Cramér-Smirnov statistic under H_n: θ₁ = θ₁₀ + n^−1/2γ, θ₂ unspecified, where γ is a given vector independent of n, is the distribution of a sum of weighted noncentral χ₁² variables whose weights are eigenvalues of a covariance function of a Gaussian process and noncentrality parameters are Fourier coefficients of the mean function of the Gaussian process. Further, the author exploits the special form of the covariance function by using perturbation theory to obtain the noncentrality parameters and the weights. The technique is applicable to other goodness-of-fit statistics such as U² [G. S. Watson, Biometrika 48 (1961), 109–114].     

Maximum likelihood estimation of a change-point in the distribution of independent random variables: General multiparameter case

In a sequence ofn independent random variables the pdf changes fromf(x, 0) tof(x, 0 + δv_n⁻¹) after the firstnλ variables. The problem is to estimateλ (0, 1 ), where 0 and δ are unknownd-dim parameters andv_n → ∞ slower thann^1/2. Let_n denote the maximum likelihood estimator (mle) ofλ. Analyzing the local behavior of the likelihood function near the true parameter values it is shown under regularity conditions that ifn_n²(− λ) is bounded in probability asn → ∞, then it converges in law to the timeT_(δjδ)^1/2 at which a two-sided Brownian motion (B.M.) with drift1/2(δ′Jδ)^1/2ton(−∞, ∞) attains its a.s. unique minimum, whereJ denotes the Fisher-information matrix. This generalizes the result for small change in mean of univariate normal random variables obtained by Bhattacharya and Brockwell (1976,Z. Warsch. Verw. Gebiete37, 51–75) who also derived the distribution ofT_μ forμ > 0. For the general case an alternative estimator is constructed by a three-step procedure which is shown to have the above asymptotic distribution. In the important case of multiparameter exponential families, the construction of this estimator is considerably simplified.     

Test of association between multivariate stable vectors

Based on observations of d-dimensional random vectors in the domain of attraction of a stable distribution with (multi-)index α = (α₁, …, α_d), an estimator for the dependence function of the α_i-stable variables is constructed. The estimator utilizes the α-tail-estimator and an estimator of the spectral measure of the α-stable law. This estimator gives rise to a test of association of the stable components and various quantitative measures of association.     

On the approximate behavior of the posterior distribution for an extreme multivariate observation

The behavior of the posterior for a large observation is considered. Two basic situations are discussed; location vectors and natural parameters.Let X = (X₁, X₂, …, X_n) be an observation from a multivariate exponential distribution with that natural parameter Θ = (Θ₁, Θ₂, …, Θ_n). Let θ_x^* be the posterior mode. Sufficient conditions are presented for the distribution of Θ − θ_x^* given X = x to converge to a multivariate normal with mean vector 0 as |x| tends to infinity. These same conditions imply that E(Θ | X = x) − θ_x^* converges to the zero vector as |x| tends to infinity.The posterior for an observation X = (X₁, X₂, …, X_n is considered for a location vector Θ = (Θ₁, Θ₂, …, Θ_n) as x gets large along a path, γ, in Rⁿ. Sufficient conditions are given for the distribution of γ(t) − Θ given X = γ(t) to converge in law as t → ∞. Slightly stronger conditions ensure that γ(t) − E(Θ | X = γ(t)) converges to the mean of the limiting distribution.These basic results about the posterior mean are extended to cover other estimators. Loss functions which are convex functions of absolute error are considered. Let δ be a Bayes estimator for a loss function of this type. Generally, if the distribution of Θ − E(Θ | X = γ(t)) given X = γ(t) converges in law to a symmetric distribution as t → ∞, it is shown that δ(γ(t)) − E(Θ | X = γ(t)) → 0 as t → ∞.     

Asymptotic expansions of the distributions of some test statistics for Gaussian ARMA processes

Let {X_t} be a Gaussian ARMA process with spectral density f_θ(λ), where θ is an unknown parameter. The problem considered is that of testing a simple hypothesis H:θ = θ₀ against the alternative A:θ ≠ θ₀. For this problem we propose a class of tests , which contains the likelihood ratio (LR), Wald (W), modified Wald (MW) and Rao (R) tests as special cases. Then we derive the χ² type asymptotic expansion of the distribution of T up to order n⁻¹, where n is the sample size. Also we derive the χ² type asymptotic expansion of the distribution of T under the sequence of alternatives A_n: θ = θ₀ + /√n, ε > 0. Then we compare the local powers of the LR, W, MW, and R tests on the basis of their asymptotic expansions.     

Decomposition of fuzzy continuity and fuzzy ideal continuity via fuzzy idealization

Recently, El-Naschie has shown that the notion of fuzzy topology may be relevant to quantum paretical physics in connection with string theory and E-infinity space time theory. In this paper, we study the concepts of r-fuzzy semi-I-open, r-fuzzy pre-I-open, r-fuzzy α-I-open and r-fuzzy β-I-open sets, which is properly placed between r-fuzzy openness and r-fuzzy α-I-openness (r-fuzzy pre-I-openness) sets regardless the fuzzy ideal topological space in Ŝostak sense. Moreover, we give a decomposition of fuzzy continuity, fuzzy ideal continuity and fuzzy ideal α-continuity, and obtain several characterization and some properties of these functions. Also, we investigate their relationship with other types of function.     

Sphericity test in a GMANOVA–MANOVA model with normal error

For the GMANOVA–MANOVA model with normal error: , , we study in this paper the sphericity hypothesis test problem with respect to covariance matrix: Σ=λI_q (λ is unknown). It is shown that, as a function of the likelihood ratio statistic Λ, the null distribution of Λ^2/n can be expressed by Meijer’s function, and the asymptotic null distribution of −2logΛ is (as n→∞). In addition, the Bartlett type correction −2ρlogΛ for logΛ is indicated to be asymptotically distributed as with order n⁻² for an appropriate Bartlett adjustment factor −2ρ under null hypothesis.     

Onα-Symmetric Multivariate Characteristic Functions

Ann-dimensional random vector is said to have anα-symmetric distribution,α>0, if its characteristic function is of the form((|u₁|^α+…+|u_n|^α)^1/α). We study the classesΦ_n(α) of all admissible functions: [0, ∞)→ . It is known that members ofΦ_n(2) andΦ_n(1) are scale mixtures of certain primitivesΩ_nandω_n, respectively, and we show thatω_nis obtained fromΩ_2n−1byn−1 successive integrations. Consequently, curious relations between 1- and 2- (or spherically) symmetric distributions arise. An analogue of Askey's criterion gives a partial solution to a question of D. St. P. Richards: If(0)=1,is continuous, lim_t→∞ (t)=0, and⁽²ⁿ⁻²⁾(t) is convex, thenΦ_n(1). The paper closes with various criteria for the unimodality of anα-symmetric distribution.     

Robust M-estimators of location vectors

Let X₁,…,X_n be i.i.d. random vectors in R^m, let θεR^m be an unknown location parameter, and assume that the restriction of the distribution of X₁−θ to a sphere of radius d belongs to a specified neighborhood of distributions spherically symmetric about 0. Under regularity conditions on and d, the parameter θ in this model is identifiable, and consistent M-estimators of θ (i.e., solutions of Σ_i=1ⁿψ(|X_i− |)(X_i− )=0) are obtained by using “re-descenders,” i.e., ψ's wh satisfy ψ(x)=0 for x≥c. An iterative method for solving for is shown to produce consistent and asymptotically normal estimates of θ under all distributions in . The following asymptotic robustness problem is considered: finding the ψ which is best among the re-descenders according to Huber's minimax variance criterion.     

The Hausdorff separation axiom for fuzzy topological spaces

We develop a theory of α-Hausdorff fuzzy topological spaces which is compatible with α-compactness and fuzzy continuity, and for α a certain type of member of a given lattice we obtain characterizations of the α-Hausdorff subspaces of the fuzzy unit interval, the fuzzy open unit interval, and the fuzzy real line. In route we give an easy proof of the Fuzzy Tychonov Theorem for α-compactness and extend the theory of one-point α-compactifications.     

Operation properties and -equalities of complex fuzzy sets

A complex fuzzy set is a fuzzy set whose membership function takes values in the unit circle in the complex plane. This paper investigates various operation properties and proposes a distance measure for complex fuzzy sets. The distance of two complex fuzzy sets measures the difference between the grades of two complex fuzzy sets as well as that between the phases of the two complex fuzzy sets. This distance measure is then used to define δ-equalities of complex fuzzy sets which coincide with those of fuzzy sets already defined in the literature if complex fuzzy sets reduce to real-valued fuzzy sets. Two complex fuzzy sets are said to be δ-equal if the distance between them is less than 1-δ. This paper shows how various operations between complex fuzzy sets affect given δ-equalities of complex fuzzy sets. An example application of signal detection demonstrates the utility of the concept of δ-equalities of complex fuzzy sets in practice.     

MU-Estimation and Smoothing

In the M-estimation theory developed by Huber (1964, Ann. Math. Statist.43, 1449–1458), the parameter under estimation is the value of θ which minimizes the expectation of what is called a discrepancy measure (DM) δ(X, θ) which is a function of θ and the underlying random variable X. Such a setting does not cover the estimation of parameters such as the multivariate median defined by Oja (1983) and Liu (1990), as the value of θ which minimizes the expectation of a DM of the type δ(X₁, …, X_m, θ) where X₁, …, X_m are independent copies of the underlying random variable X. Arcones et al. (1994, Ann. Statist.22, 1460–1477) studied the estimation of such parameters. We call such an M-type MU-estimation (or μ-estimation for convenience). When a DM is not a differentiable function of θ, some complexities arise in studying the properties of estimators as well as in their computation. In such a case, we introduce a new method of smoothing the DM with a kernel function and using it in estimation. It is seen that smoothing allows us to develop an elegant approach to the study of asymptotic properties and possibly apply the Newton–Raphson procedure in the computation of estimators.     

An asymptotic minimax risk bound for estimation of a linear functional relationship

We consider estimation of the parameter B in a multivariate linear functional relationship X_i=ξ_i+ξ_1i, Y_i=Bξ_i+ξ_2i, i=1,…,n, where the errors (ζ_1i^′, ζ_2i^′) are independent standard normal and (ξ_i, i ) is a sequence of unknown nonrandom vectors (incidental parameters). If there are no substantial a priori restrictions on the infinite sequence of incidental parameters then asymptotically the model is nonparametric but does not fit into common settings presupposing a parameter from a metric function space. A special result of the local asymptotic minimax type for the m.1.e. of B is proved. The accuracy of the normal approximation for the m.l.e. of order n^−1/2 is also established.     

Generalized Hodges-Lehmann estimators for the analysis of variance

For X_i, …, X_n a random sample and K(·, ·) a symmetric kernel this paper considers large sample properties of location estimator satisfying , . Asymptotic normality of is obtained and two forms of interval estimators for parameter θ satisfying EK(X₁ − θ, X₂ − θ) = 0, are discussed. Consistent estimation of the variance parameters is obtained which permits the construction of asymptotically distribution free procedures. The p-variate and multigroup extension is accomplished to provide generalized one-way MANOVA. Monte Carlo results are included.     

Rewarding Maps: On Greedy Optimization of Set Functions

Given a set function, that is, a map ƒ: (E) → {−∞} from the set (E) of subsets of a finite set E into the reals including −∞, the standard greedy algorithm (GA) for optimizing ƒ starts with the empty set and then proceeds by enlarging this set greedily, element by element. A set function ƒ is said to be tractable if in this way a sequence x₀ , x₁, . . ., x_N E (N #E) of subsets with max(ƒ) {ƒ(x₀), ƒ(x₁), . . ., ƒ(x_N)} will always be found. In this note, we will reinterpret and transcend the traditions of classical GA-theory (cf., e.g., [KLS]) by establishing necessary and sufficient conditions for a set function ƒ not just to be tractable as it stands, but to give rise to a whole family of tractable set functions ƒ(η) : (E) → : x ƒ(x) + Σ_{e x}η(e), where η runs through all real valued weighting schemes η : E → , in which case ƒ will be called rewarding. In addition, we will characterize two important subclasses of rewarding maps, viz. truncatably rewarding (or well-layered) maps, that is, set functions ƒ such that [formula] is rewarding for every i = 1, . . ., N, and matroidal maps, that is, set functions ƒ such that for every η : E → and every ƒ_eta-greedy sequence x₀, x₁, . . ., x_N as above, one has max(ƒ_η) = ƒ_η(x_i) for the unique i {0, . . ., N} with ƒ_η(x₀) < ƒ_η(x₁) < ··· < ƒ_η(x_i) ≥ ƒ_η(x_{i + 1}).     

Error bounds for least squares approximation by polynomials

Let f ε Cⁿ⁺¹[−1, 1] and let H[f](x) be the nth degree weighted least squares polynomial approximation to f with respect to the orthonormal polynomials q_k associated with a distribution dα on [−1, 1]. It is shown that if q_n+1/q_n max(q_n+1(1)/q_n(1), −q_n+1(−1)/q_n(−1)), then f − H[f] f^{n + 1} · q_n+1/q_{n + 1}^{(n + 1)}, where · denotes the supremum norm. Furthermore, it is shown that in the case of Jacobi polynomials with distribution (1 − t)^α (1 + t)^β dt, α, β > −1, the condition on q_n+1/q_n is satisfied when either max(α,β) −1/2 or −1 < α = β < −1/2.     

Minimax estimation of the mean of spherically symmetric distributions under general quadratic loss

For X one observation on a p-dimensional (p ≥ 4) spherically symmetric (s.s.) distribution about θ, minimax estimators whose risks dominate the risk of X (the best invariant procedure) are found with respect to general quadratic loss, L(δ, θ) = (δ − θ)′ D(δ − θ) where D is a known p × p positive definite matrix. For C a p × p known positive definite matrix, conditions are given under which estimators of the form δ_a,r,C,D(X) = (I − (ar(|X|²)) D^−1/2CD^1/2 |X|⁻²)X are minimax with smaller risk than X. For the problem of estimating the mean when n observations X₁, X₂, …, X_n are taken on a p-dimensional s.s. distribution about θ, any spherically symmetric translation invariant estimator, δ(X₁, X₂, …, X_n), with have a s.s. distribution about θ. Among the estimators which have these properties are best invariant estimators, sample means and maximum likelihood estimators. Moreover, under certain conditions, improved robust estimators can be found.