Asymptotic theory for multivariate GARCH processes

We provide in this paper asymptotic theory for the multivariate GARCH(p,q) process. Strong consistency of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is established by appealing to conditions given by Jeantheau (Econometric Theory14 (1998), 70) in conjunction with a result given by Boussama (Ergodicity, mixing and estimation in GARCH models, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Paris 7, 1998) concerning the existence of a stationary and ergodic solution to the multivariate GARCH(p,q) process. We prove asymptotic normality of the quasi-MLE when the initial state is either stationary or fixed.     

On location estimation for LARCH processes

We consider location estimation when the error process is a stationary LARCH process with long memory in the second moments. The asymptotic distribution of the sample mean and nonlinear M-estimators of the location parameter are derived. Essential assumptions for obtaining asymptotic normality with -rate of convergence are symmetry of the innovation distribution and skew-symmetry of the ψ-function.     

Cramér-von Mises tests for independence

In this paper recent results of Gregory [(1977)Ann. Statist.5 110–123] are used to obtain the asymptotic null distribution of a weighted Cramér-von Mises type test for independence. We use approximate Bahadur slopes to find good weight functions for certain alternatives. Some percentage points of the asymptotic distribution are given.     

CLTs and Asymptotic Variance of Time-Sampled Markov Chains

For a Markov transition kernel P and a probability distribution μ on nonnegative integers, a time-sampled Markov chain evolves according to the transition kernel $P_{\mu} = \sum_k \mu(k)P^k.$ In this note we obtain CLT conditions for time-sampled Markov chains and derive a spectral formula for the asymptotic variance. Using these results we compare efficiency of Barker’s and Metropolis algorithms in terms of asymptotic variance.     

On kernel method for sliced average variance estimation

In this paper, we use the kernel method to estimate sliced average variance estimation (SAVE) and prove that this estimator is both asymptotically normal and root n consistent. We use this kernel estimator to provide more insight about the differences between slicing estimation and other sophisticated local smoothing methods. Finally, we suggest a Bayes information criterion (BIC) to estimate the dimensionality of SAVE. Examples and real data are presented for illustrating our method.     

Fully robust one-sided cross-validation for regression functions

Fully robust OSCV is a modification of the OSCV method that produces consistent bandwidths in the cases of smooth and nonsmooth regression functions. We propose the practical implementation of the method based on the robust cross-validation kernel \(H_I\) in the case when the Gaussian kernel \(\phi \) is used in computing the resulting regression estimate. The kernel \(H_I\) produces practically unbiased bandwidths in the smooth and nonsmooth cases and performs adequately in the data examples. Negative tails of \(H_I\) occasionally result in unacceptably wiggly OSCV curves in the neighborhood of zero. This problem can be resolved by selecting the bandwidth from the largest local minimum of the curve. Further search for the robust kernels with desired properties brought us to consider the quartic kernel for the cross-validation purposes. The quartic kernel is almost robust in the sense that in the nonsmooth case it substantially reduces the asymptotic relative bandwidth bias compared to \(\phi \). However, the quartic kernel is found to produce more variable bandwidths compared to \(\phi \). Nevertheless, the quartic kernel has an advantage of producing smoother OSCV curves compared to \(H_I\). A simplified scale-free version of the OSCV method based on a rescaled one-sided kernel is proposed.     

Bergman kernels and symplectic reduction

We present several results concerning the asymptotic expansion of the invariant Bergman kernel of the ${\mathrm{spin}}^c$ Dirac operator associated with high tensor powers of a positive line bundle on a compact symplectic manifold. To cite this article: X. Ma, W. Zhang, C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 341 (2005).     

High-dimensional asymptotic expansions for the distributions of canonical correlations

This paper examines asymptotic distributions of the canonical correlations between and with q≤p, based on a sample of size of N=n+1. The asymptotic distributions of the canonical correlations have been studied extensively when the dimensions q and p are fixed and the sample size N tends toward infinity. However, these approximations worsen when q or p is large in comparison to N. To overcome this weakness, this paper first derives asymptotic distributions of the canonical correlations under a high-dimensional framework such that q is fixed, m=n−p→∞ and c=p/n→c₀∈[0,1), assuming that and have a joint (q+p)-variate normal distribution. An extended Fisher’s z-transformation is proposed. Then, the asymptotic distributions are improved further by deriving their asymptotic expansions. Numerical simulations revealed that our approximations are more accurate than the classical approximations for a large range of p,q, and n and the population canonical correlations.     

Densities for random balanced sampling

A random balanced sample (RBS) is a multivariate distribution with n components X_k, each uniformly distributed on [-1,1], such that the sum of these components is precisely 0. The corresponding vectors lie in an (n-1)-dimensional polytope M(n). We present new methods for the construction of such RBS via densities over M(n) and these apply for arbitrary n. While simple densities had been known previously for small values of n (namely 2,3, and 4), for larger n the known distributions with large support were fractal distributions (with fractal dimension asymptotic to n as n→∞). Applications of RBS distributions include sampling with antithetic coupling to reduce variance, and the isolation of nonlinearities. We also show that the previously known densities (for n?4) are in fact the only solutions in a natural and very large class of potential RBS densities. This finding clarifies the need for new methods, such as those presented here.     

Testing the stability of the functional autoregressive process

The functional autoregressive process has become a useful tool in the analysis of functional time series data. It is defined by the equation , in which the observations X_n and errors ε_n are curves, and is an operator. To ensure meaningful inference and prediction based on this model, it is important to verify that the operator does not change with time. We propose a method for testing the constancy of against a change-point alternative which uses the functional principal component analysis. The test statistic is constructed to have a well-known asymptotic distribution, but the asymptotic justification of the procedure is very delicate. We develop a new truncation approach which together with Mensov’s inequality can be used in other problems of functional time series analysis. The estimation of the principal components introduces asymptotically non-negligible terms, which however cancel because of the special form of our test statistic (CUSUM type). The test is implemented using the R package fda, and its finite sample performance is examined by application to credit card transaction data.     

Multivariate k-nearest neighbor density estimates

Under appropriate assumptions, expressions describing the asymptotic behavior of the bias and variance of k-nearest neighbor density estimates with weight function w are obtained. The behavior of these estimates is compared with that of kernel estimates. Particular attention is paid to the properties of the estimates in the tail.     

Estimating the parametric component of nonlinear partial spline model

Consider a nonlinear partial spline model . This article studies the estimation problem of when g₀ is approximated by some graduating function. Some asymptotic results for are derived. In particular, it is shown that can be estimated with the usual parametric convergence rate without undersmoothing g₀.     

Asymptotic expansions of test statistics for dimensionality and additional information in canonical correlation analysis when the dimension is large

This paper examines asymptotic expansions of test statistics for dimensionality and additional information in canonical correlation analysis based on a sample of size N=n+1 on two sets of variables, i.e.,  and . These problems are related to dimension reduction. The asymptotic approximations of the statistics have been studied extensively when dimensions p₁ and p₂ are fixed and the sample size N tends to infinity. However, the approximations worsen as p₁ and p₂ increase. This paper derives asymptotic expansions of the test statistics when both the sample size and dimension are large, assuming that and have a joint (p₁+p₂)-variate normal distribution. Numerical simulations revealed that this approximation is more accurate than the classical approximation as the dimension increases.     

Power series solutions to Volterra integral equations

Power series type solutions are given for a wide class of linear and q-dimensional nonlinear Volterra equations on R^p. The basic assumption on the kernel K(x, y) is that K(x, xt) has a power series in x. For example, this holds for any analytic kernel.The kernel may be strongly singular, provided certain constants are finite. One and only one such power series solution exists. Its coefficients are given by a simple iterative formula. In many cases this may be solved explicitly. In particular an explicit formula for the resolvent is given.     

Modified Whittle estimation of multilateral models on a lattice

In the estimation of parametric models for stationary spatial or spatio-temporal data on a d-dimensional lattice, for d?2, the achievement of asymptotic efficiency under Gaussianity, and asymptotic normality more generally, with standard convergence rate, faces two obstacles. One is the “edge effect”, which worsens with increasing d. The other is the possible difficulty of computing a continuous-frequency form of Whittle estimate or a time domain Gaussian maximum likelihood estimate, due mainly to the Jacobian term. This is especially a problem in “multilateral” models, which are naturally expressed in terms of lagged values in both directions for one or more of the d dimensions. An extension of the discrete-frequency Whittle estimate from the time series literature deals conveniently with the computational problem, but when subjected to a standard device for avoiding the edge effect has disastrous asymptotic performance, along with finite sample numerical drawbacks, the objective function lacking a minimum-distance interpretation and losing any global convexity properties. We overcome these problems by first optimizing a standard, guaranteed non-negative, discrete-frequency, Whittle function, without edge-effect correction, providing an estimate with a slow convergence rate, then improving this by a sequence of computationally convenient approximate Newton iterations using a modified, almost-unbiased periodogram, the desired asymptotic properties being achieved after finitely many steps. The asymptotic regime allows increase in both directions of all d dimensions, with the central limit theorem established after re-ordering as a triangular array. However our work offers something new for “unilateral” models also. When the data are non-Gaussian, asymptotic variances of all parameter estimates may be affected, and we propose consistent, non-negative definite estimates of the asymptotic variance matrix.     

On the Maximum Likelihood estimation of a linear structural relationship when the intercept is known

This paper considers the Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation of the five parameters of a linear structural relationship y = α + βx when α is known. The parameters are β, the two variances of observation errors on x and y, the mean and variance of x. When the ML estimates of the parameters cannot be obtained by solving a simple simultaneous system of five equations, they are found by maximizing the likelihood function directly. Some asymptotic properties of the estimates are also obtained.     

Asymptotic properties of Bayes estimators for Gaussian Itô-processes with noisy observations

The estimation of a real parameter θ in a linear stochastic differential equation of the simple type is investigated, based on noisy, time continuous observations of X_t. Sufficient conditions on the continuous functions β and σ are given such that the (conditionally normal) Bayes estimators of θ satisfy certain error bounds and are strongly consistent.     

Estimation of the regression operator from functional fixed-design with correlated errors

We consider the estimation of the regression operator r in the functional model: Y=r(x)+ε, where the explanatory variable x is of functional fixed-design type, the response Y is a real random variable and the error process ε is a second order stationary process. We construct the kernel type estimate of r from functional data curves and correlated errors. Then we study their performances in terms of the mean square convergence and the convergence in probability. In particular, we consider the cases of short and long range error processes. When the errors are negatively correlated or come from a short memory process, the asymptotic normality of this estimate is derived. Finally, some simulation studies are conducted for a fractional autoregressive integrated moving average and for an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck error processes.     

Reproducing kernels of Sobolev spaces via a green kernel approach with differential operators and boundary operators

We introduce a vector differential operator P and a vector boundary operator B to derive a reproducing kernel along with its associated Hilbert space which is shown to be embedded in a classical Sobolev space. This reproducing kernel is a Green kernel of differential operator L:?=?P ^???T P with homogeneous or nonhomogeneous boundary conditions given by B, where we ensure that the distributional adjoint operator P ^??? of P is well-defined in the distributional sense. We represent the inner product of the reproducing-kernel Hilbert space in terms of the operators P and B. In addition, we find relationships for the eigenfunctions and eigenvalues of the reproducing kernel and the operators with homogeneous or nonhomogeneous boundary conditions. These eigenfunctions and eigenvalues are used to compute a series expansion of the reproducing kernel and an orthonormal basis of the reproducing-kernel Hilbert space. Our theoretical results provide perhaps a more intuitive way of understanding what kind of functions are well approximated by the reproducing kernel-based interpolant to a given multivariate data sample.