Simulation modelling is 50! Do we need a reality check?

Simulation modelling is a fascinating research field. The techniques and tools of simulation modelling have been used to research and investigate the behaviour of various systems in a wide range of areas such as commerce, computer networks, defence, health, manufacturing and transportation. Indeed, the study of the use of these techniques and tools, and the development of new forms of these, are a rich source of research in their own right. Simulation modelling is about to reach the 50th anniversary of the development of GSP (General Simulation Program), the first simulation modelling language (Tocher and Owen, 1960). There have been several historical accounts of simulation modelling research. To complement these, we have performed a review of the recent history of simulation modelling. This study targeted three leading journals dedicated to this field. These are the ACM Transactions of Modeling and Computer Simulation, Simulation: Transactions of The Society for Modeling and Simulation International and Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory (formerly Simulation Practice and Theory). The study covered the first 6 years of this century (2000–2005) and included 576 papers. The key observation of this work was the relative lack of ‘real world’ involvement in simulation modelling research and an even greater lack of evidence of ‘real world’ benefit, arguably very alarming outcomes for an applied field. To further investigate this observation two additional surveys were carried out, one to study if real world papers appeared in the more widely known OR/MS literature (837 papers in 12 journals) and one to study if such papers appeared in Manufacturing and Logistics, an application area closely associated with simulation modelling (1077 papers in 10 journals). The results of these surveys confirmed our observations. We ask if this is the natural evolution of a field that has existed for half a century or an indication of a worrying problem? This paper reports on our findings and discusses whether or not simulation modelling research urgently needs to face a ‘reality check.’     

Artificial intelligence for decision support systems in the field of operations research: review and future scope of research

Operations research (OR) has been at the core of decision making since World War II, and today, business interactions on different platforms have changed business dynamics, introducing a high degree of uncertainty. To have a sustainable vision of their business, firms need to have a suitable decision-making process at each stage, including minute details. Our study reviews and investigates the existing research in the field of decision support systems (DSSs) and how artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities have been integrated into OR. The findings of our review show how AI has contributed to decision making in the operations research field. This review presents synergies, differences, and overlaps in AI, DSSs, and OR. Furthermore, a clarification of the literature based on the approaches adopted to develop the DSS is presented along with the underlying theories. The classification has been primarily divided into two categories, i.e. theory building and application-based approaches, along with taxonomies based on the AI, DSS, and OR areas. In this review, past studies were calibrated according to prognostic capability, exploitation of large data sets, number of factors considered, development of learning capability, and validation in the decision-making framework. This paper presents gaps and future research opportunities concerning prediction and learning, decision making and optimization in view of intelligent decision making in today’s era of uncertainty. The theoretical and managerial implications are set forth in the discussion section justifying the research questions.

     

Integration and Utilization of Management Science Activities in Organizations<Superscript>†</Superscript>

A large-scale field study was undertaken to attempt to improve our understanding of the experiences of operational research and related management science (OR/MS) activities in U.S. industries. Multiple interviews were conducted in 66 major firms. An initial analysis of the data suggests several parameters which might be important to the success of management science activities and which researchers may wish to consider in future efforts at theory building. Examples of such factors are: background of the OR/MS leaders and analysts; succession of leaders; amount of OR/MS exposure in the firm; extent of computer usage in the firm; organizational location; project missions; top management relations; client relations; staff relations; personality conflicts. Selected cases are presented to illustrate the interaction of many of these factors in the reported experiences of several firms. Interface relations are examined with special attention given to data collection and implementation problems. The increasing usage of liaison roles is noted. Further studies are being conducted to compare these U.S. experiences with those of OR/MS activities in other countries.     

The practice of operational research in Taiwan

This paper presents the results of a questionnaire survey of operational research/management science (OR/MS) practices in Taiwanese companies. The survey was addressed to the current status and future perspectives of OR/MS in Taiwan. During the spring of 2001, 2000 questionnaires were mailed to the top 1000 domestic manufacturing firms and top 1000 domestic service organizations. These asked questions concerning specific OR/MS techniques being used, application areas of OR/MS, reasons for using OR/MS, reasons for not using OR/MS, difficulties encountered practically, and future perspectives. Results from 262 valid respondents provided several informative findings. Compared with the 1995 survey of Kao et al, it found that the percentage of companies that have used OR/MS techniques increased from 62.7% in 1995 to 76.7% in 2001. Also, the percentage of companies that have never heard of OR/MS decreased from 16.1% in 1995 to 11.1% in 2001. Because of the Taiwan government recently developing educational and training programs in OR/MS, it found that the importance of OR/MS has been recognized by Taiwan companies as an efficient management tool for economic development, and the usage of OR/MS will continuously increase.     

Implementation of the operations research/management science process

The aim of this article is to point out some basic aspects of the OR/MS implementation problem and to outline a frame of reference for dealing with the OR/MS process. The model proposed includes a decomposition of the OR/MS process. Phases, interest groups, strategies, and variables in the OR/MS process are considered as being important. The first part of the article is a summary of some important recent contributions by others, whereas the second part represents contributions resulting from the author's own research.     

Teaching objectives: the value of using cases in teaching operational research

This paper describes our experience with a case study that was intended to provide business students with a straightforward exercise in operational research/management science (OR/MS) but which consistently produces a learning experience for students that is quite different from that envisaged when the case was originally written. An effort is made to explain the surprising results in the classroom. This example demonstrates the fact that building OR/MS models often reveals important dimensions of a problem that otherwise might remain unexplored. The richness of this case also demonstrates the value of exposing OR/MS students to real problems through the use of cases.     

Innovative research in OR/MS?

This paper is a contribution to the continuing debate about research priorities and publications in OR/MS. It categorises research publications in several different ways. First it uses approaches suggested in the information systems and operations management literature. It then takes previous examinations of leading OR/MS journals to gain a different perspective on the same issues. Finally, it uses a multi-faceted view of OR/MS to try to capture its full richness. These analyses confirm the view that much published research in OR is unengaged and focuses on decision mathematics or optimisation, apparently for its own sake. That is, most papers published in the leading OR/MS journals take little or no account of how their findings might be used in practice, nor do they express much concern about this issue. The reasons for this state of affairs are discussed, so as to consider whether a change might be overdue.     

Rethinking tradeoffs and OR/MS methodology

The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of a process known as the ‘evaporating cloud’ (EC) as a way of enhancing OR/MS modelling. While other authors have described the use of the EC process to explore the tradeoffs in a traditional Economic Order Quantity model, this paper demonstrates the use of the EC with a facilities location problem, which was originally solved via mixed integer programming. We relate our findings to OR/MS modelling in general, and argue that the EC could contribute effectively to different phases of the problem-solving process, for example, aiding the problem-structuring phase and helping to find better solutions in many OR/MS modelling situations. We demonstrate that the EC is a valuable tool to use in modelling practice as a problem-structuring tool, as a way of dealing specifically with tradeoffs, and that it can therefore be a useful complement to OR/MS methodology, and contribute to OR/MS practice and teaching.     

The development of management sciences/operational research discourses: surveying the trends in the US and the UK

This paper explores the trends in American and British management science/operational research (MS/OR) during the last 25 years. We argue that British MS/OR has developed a soft and systemic approach to MS/OR practice, which has resulted in the emergence of a number of interpretive and critical-oriented methodologies. American MS/OR practice has remained closed to the positivistic discourse. Using a set of keywords and authors’ names associated with the main features of the interpretive and critical MS discourses, we surveyed articles published in three major US MS/OR journals. We compare these results with trends in the UK MS/OR scene. Findings appear to confirm the different directions taken by the MS/OR practice across the Atlantic. The paper posits possible reasons underpinning these differences: firstly, the particular methodological path followed by the British MS/OR, from early ‘soft systems’ applications in the early 1970s to the now well-established ‘Problem Structuring Methods’; and secondly, continuous engagement between the systems and MS/OR British communities (a dialogue that seems not to have occurred in the US). The paper contributes to a reflection on the MS/OR historical developments and contrasts these developments in both countries, two areas of OR significantly under-researched.     

Supporting the strategy process: a survey of UK OR/MS practitioners

This paper reports the results of an online survey conducted with practitioner members of the UK Operational Research (OR) Society. The purpose of the survey was to explore the current practice of supporting the strategy process in terms of activities supported and tools used. The results of the survey are compared to those of previous surveys to explore developments in, inter alia, the use of management/strategy tools and ‘soft’ Operational Research/Management Science (OR/MS) tools. The survey results demonstrate that OR practitioners actively support the strategy process within their organisations. While a wide variety of tools, drawn from the OR/MS and management/strategy fields, are used to support the strategy process within organisations, the findings suggest that soft OR/MS tools are not regularly used. The findings also demonstrate that tools are combined to support the strategy process from both within and across the OR/MS and management/strategy fields. The paper ends by identifying a number of areas for further research.     

Research advances in environmentally and socially sustainable operations

Consumers and governments are pressuring firms to strike a balance between profitability and sustainability. However, this balance can only be maintained in the long run if the firm can take a holistic approach to sustain the financial flow (profit), resource flow (planet) and development flow (people) for the entire ecosystem comprising poor producers in emerging/developing markets, global supply chain partners, consumers in developed countries, and the planet. By considering the flows associated with different entities within the ecosystem, we classify and summarize recent Operations Research/Management Science (OR/MS) research developments. Also, we identify several gaps for future research in this important area.     

Data breaches: Goodness of fit,pricing, and risk measurement

Some research on cyber risk has been conducted in the field of information technology, but virtually no research exists in the actuarial domain. As a first step toward a more profound actuarial discussion, we use multidimensional scaling and goodness-of-fit tests to analyze the distribution of data breach information. Our results show that different types of data breaches need to be modeled as distinct risk categories. For severity modeling, the log-skew-normal distribution provides promising results. The findings add to the recent discussion on the use of skewed distributions in actuarial modeling (Vernic, 2006; Bolancé et al., 2008; Eling, 2012). Moreover, they provide useful insights for actuaries working on the implementation of cyber insurance policies. We illustrate the usefulness of our results in two applications on risk measurement and pricing.     

Using MENTOR to teach systems thinking and OR methodology to first-year students in New Zealand

MENTOR is a multi-media, interactive, educational package, developed as separate modules by OR teachers in the United Kingdom. In 1995, we contributed a module for teaching students how to approach MS/OR projects within a framework of systems thinking. We outline the philosophy underlying the module, highlight and demonstrate some of its distinct features, and report on our experience using it in a large first-year university course (600+ students each year).     

Management science methodologies in environmental management and sustainability: discourses and applications

This paper investigates and discusses the use of systemic methodologies (SMs) developed in management science/operational research (MS/OR), in particular, those SM that have been informing the complexity inherent in environmental management and sustainable (EM/S) practices. By surveying a sample of the top MS/OR and systems journals, we assess the extent to which systemic management science methodologies developed recently have been used in tackling EM/S problems. Titles and abstracts of EM/S applications published in MS/OR and systems journals between 1989 and 2009 were queried for the occurrence of typical keywords associated with a set of SMs (eg, complexity theory, systems dynamics, soft systems, critical systems, viable systems model). The survey identifies a set of articles representing the practice of either a particular methodology or of a mixture of various SMs in EM/S setting. By assembling and critically reviewing a sample of applications in EM/S the paper hopes to raise awareness among environmentalists, operational researchers and management scientists of the benefits of using systemic approaches developed in MS/OR and, in this way, to encourage further exchange and conversation between these fields of management.     

Ethics outside,within, or beyond OR models?

Since ethical concerns are calling for more attention within Operational Research, we present three approaches to combine Operational Research models with ethics. Our intention is to clarify the trade-offs faced by the OR community, in particular the tension between the scientific legitimacy of OR models (ethics outside OR models) and the integration of ethics within models (ethics within OR models). Presenting and discussing an approach that combines OR models with the process of OR (ethics beyond OR models), we suggest rigorous ways to express the relation between ethics and OR models. As our work is exploratory, we are trying to avoid a dogmatic attitude and call for further research. We argue that there are interesting avenues for research at the theoretical, methodological and applied levels and that the OR community can contribute to an innovative, constructive and responsible social dialogue about its ethics.     

Ethics in OR/MS: Past,present and future

The pervasiveness and impact on society and on every day human life of technology has led to a growing awareness that science and technology cannot be considered above or beyond the realm of value judgements and hence of ethics. This is especially true for Operations Research / Management Science (OR/MS), that particular science which is concerned with methodologies for scientifically deciding how to design and operate man-machine systems in an optimal way, usually under conditions requiring the allocation of scarce resources. Here we try to give a historical account of the growing interest for ethics within the OR/MS community from its birth to present days. Starting from attempts to define models and codes of ethical behaviour in our profession, the OR/MS community has arrived at more fundamental questions about the ethical responsibility it faces in a world of growing inequalities and in which the ever greater stress that human activities impose on the environment puts at risk the very survival of human kind.     

OR/MS research in disaster operations management

Disasters are large intractable problems that test the ability of communities and nations to effectively protect their populations and infrastructure, to reduce both human and property loss, and to rapidly recover. The seeming randomness of impacts and problems and uniqueness of incidents demand dynamic, real-time, effective and cost efficient solutions, thus making the topic very suitable for OR/MS research. While social sciences and humanities literatures enjoy an abundance of articles on disaster management, the OR/MS community is yet to produce a critical mass. In this paper, we survey the literature to identify potential research directions in disaster operations, discuss relevant issues, and provide a starting point for interested researchers.     

Ethics in OR/MS: past,present and future

The pervasiveness and impact on society and on every day human life of technology has led to a growing awareness that science and technology cannot be considered above or beyond the realm of value judgements and hence of ethics. This is especially true for Operations Research/Management Science (OR/MS), that particular science which is concerned with methodologies for scientifically deciding how to design and operate man-machine systems in an optimal way, usually under conditions requiring the allocation of scarce resources. Here we try to give a historical account of the growing interest for ethics within the OR/MS community from its birth to present days. Starting from attempts to define models and codes of ethical behaviour in our profession, the OR/MS community has arrived at more fundamental questions about the ethical responsibility it faces in a world of growing inequalities and in which the ever greater stress that human activities impose on the environment puts at risk the very survival of human kind. This paper appeared in 4OR 2, 95–110, 2004.     

Structure,trend and prospect of operational research: a scientific analysis for publications from 1952 to 2020 included in Web of Science database

As an important research direction, operational research (OR) has always attracted scholars worldwide. We study the structure, trend and prospect in the OR field by conducting a bibliometric analysis of publications in the period of 1952–2020, which are included in the Web of Science (WoS) database. Using three effective bibliometric tools, namely, VOS viewer, CiteSpace, and Bibliometrix, a total of 5,353 publications were retrieved to show clear visual results using a series of scientific analyses. First, a performance analysis revealed the basic characteristics of publications considering the type distribution, annual trend, quantity and quality. Then, a cooperation analysis presented the influential countries/regions and showed the relationships among countries/regions, institutions and authors during different periods based on bibliometric indicators and co-authorship networks. Moreover, a keyword analysis was conducted to investigate the hot topics and development of the OR field, using co-occurrence analysis, timeline view analysis and evolution analysis. Finally, we discussed the implications and limitations, and summarized the main findings. This study hopes to provide important and valuable references for future research on the OR field.

     

Disruptive technologies in agricultural operations: a systematic review of AI-driven AgriTech research

The evolving field of disruptive technologies has recently gained significant interest in various industries, including agriculture. The fourth industrial revolution has reshaped the context of agricultural technology (AgriTech) with applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and a strong focus on data-driven analytical techniques. Motivated by the advances in AgriTech for agrarian operations, the study presents a state-of-the-art review of the research advances which are, evolving in a fast pace over the last decades (due to the disruptive potential of the technological context). Following a systematic literature approach, we develop a categorisation of the various types of AgriTech, as well as the associated AI-driven techniques which form the continuously shifting definition of AgriTech. The contribution primarily draws on the conceptualisation and awareness about AI-driven AgriTech context relevant to the agricultural operations for smart, efficient, and sustainable farming. The study provides a single normative reference for the definition, context and future directions of the field for further research towards the operational context of AgriTech. Our findings indicate that AgriTech research and the disruptive potential of AI in the agricultural sector are still in infancy in Operations Research. Through the systematic review, we also intend to inform a wide range of agricultural stakeholders (farmers, agripreneurs, scholars and practitioners) and to provide research agenda for a growing field with multiple potentialities for the future of the agricultural operations.