Epidemic model with vaccinated age that exhibits backward bifurcation

Vaccination of susceptibilities is included in a transmission model for a disease that confers immunity. In this paper, interplay of vaccination strategy together with vaccine efficacy and the vaccinated age is studied. In particular, vaccine efficacy can lead to a backward bifurcation. At the same time, we also discuss an abstract formulation of the problem, and establish the well-posedness of the model.     

Mathematical model for assessing the impact of vaccination and treatment on measles transmission dynamics

A deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of measles in a population with fraction of vaccinated individuals is designed and rigorously analyzed. The model with standard incidence exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease‐free equilibrium coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. This phenomenon can be removed if either measles vaccine is assumed to be perfect or disease related mortality rates are negligible. In the latter case, the disease‐free equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction threshold exceeds unity. This equilibrium is shown, using a nonlinear Lyapunov function of Goh‐Volterra type, to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case.     

Dynamics of infection with nonlinear incidence in a simple vaccination model

We develop and analyze a simple SIV epidemic model including susceptible, infected and imperfectly vaccinated classes, with a nonlinear incidence rate. We investigate the interaction of the nonlinear incidence and partial immunity. Our main results show that nonlinear incidence rate could induce the forward bifurcation with hysteresis except for the backward bifurcation. The plausible effects of vaccination program have been demonstrated by two models with nonlinear incidence rate. Vaccination program may contribute to disease spread, depending on which transmission term involves nonlinear incidence rate.     

Forces of Infection Allowing for Backward Bifurcation in an Epidemic Model with Vaccination and Treatment

We consider an epidemic model for the dynamics of a vaccine-preventable disease, which incorporates the treatment and an imperfect vaccine given to susceptible individuals. We show that in spite of the simple structure of the model, a backward bifurcation may always occur if the treatment rate is above a threshold value. This occurs regardless of the specific form of the force of infection, which is only required to be infinitesimal of the same order of the size of the infectious compartment I, as I→0. This includes many commonly used functionals, as the linear, the monotone saturating Michaelis-Menten and the non-monotone force of infection used to represent the ‘psychological effect’.     

Mathematical study of a risk-structured two-group model for Chlamydia transmission dynamics

A new two-group deterministic model for Chlamydia trachomatis, which stratifies the entire population based on risk of acquiring or transmitting infection, is designed and analyzed to gain insight into its transmission dynamics. The model is shown to exhibit the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium (DFE) co-exists with one or more stable endemic equilibria when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Unlike in some of the earlier modeling studies on Chlamydia transmission dynamics in a population, this study shows that the backward bifurcation phenomenon persists even if individuals who recovered from Chlamydia infection do not get re-infected. However, it is shown that the phenomenon can be removed if all the susceptible individuals are equally likely to acquire infection (i.e., for the case where the susceptible male and female populations are not stratified according to risk of acquiring infection). In such a case, the DFE of the resulting (reduced) model is globally-asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity and no re-infection of recovered individuals occurs. Thus, this study shows that stratifying the two-sex Chlamydia transmission model, presented in [1], according to the risk of acquiring or transmitting infection induces the phenomenon of backward bifurcation regardless of whether or not the re-infection of recovered individuals occurs.     

Stability and bifurcation of an SIS epidemic model with treatment

An SIS epidemic model with a limited resource for treatment is introduced and analyzed. It is assumed that treatment rate is proportional to the number of infectives below the capacity and is a constant when the number of infectives is greater than the capacity. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs if the capacity is small. It is also found that there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low.     

Global Dynamics of a Tuberculosis Epidemic Model and the Influence of Backward Bifurcation

In this paper, we propose and analyze a tuberculosis (TB) model with exogenous re-infection. We assume that treated individual may be again infected by infectious individual. The model exhibits two bifurcations viz. transcritical bifurcation when the basic reproductive number R ₀?=?1 and backward bifurcation where the disease transmission rate β plays as control parameter. The persistent of the model and, the local and global stability criteria of disease-free and endemic equilibria are discussed. By carrying out bifurcation analysis, it is shown that the model exhibits the bistability and undergoes the Hopf bifurcation when immunological memory is everlasting i.e. when σ?=?0. Lastly, some simulations are given to verify our analytical results.     

Backward bifurcation of an epidemic model with standard incidence rate and treatment rate

An epidemic model with standard incidence rate and treatment rate of infectious individuals is proposed to understand the effect of the capacity for treatment of infectives on the disease spread. It is assumed that treatment rate is proportional to the numbers of infectives below the capacity and is a constant when the number of infectives is greater than the capacity. It is proved that the existence and stability of equilibria for the model is not only related to the basic reproduction number but also the capacity for treatment of infectives. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs if the capacity is small. It is also found that there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low.     

On the dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with a convex incidence rate

An SEIR epidemic model with a nonlinear incidence rate is studied. The incidence is assumed to be a convex function with respect to the infective class of a host population. A bifurcation analysis is performed and conditions ensuring that the system exhibits backward bifurcation are provided. The global dynamics is also studied, through a geometric approach to stability. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results obtained analytically. This research is discussed in the framework of the recent literature on the subject.      

Bifurcation analysis of an SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function

An epidemic model with standard incidence rate and saturated treatment function of infectious individuals is proposed to understand the effect of the capacity for treatment of infective individuals on the disease spread. The treatment function in this paper is a continuous and differential function which exhibits the effect of delayed treatment when the rate of treatment is lower and the number of infected individuals is getting larger. It is proved that the existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria for the model are not only related to the basic reproduction number but also to the capacity for treatment of infective individuals. And a backward bifurcation is found when the capacity is not enough. By computing the first Lyapunov coefficient, we can determine the type of Hopf bifurcation, i.e., subcritical Hopf bifurcation or supercritical Hopf bifurcation. We also show that under some conditions the model undergoes Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support some of the theoretical results.     

Backward bifurcation in simple SIS model

We describe and analyze a simple SIS model with treatment. In particular, we give a completely qualitative analysis by means of the theory of asymptotically autonomous system. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs if the adequate contact rate or the capacity is small. It is also found that there exists bistable endemic equilibria. In the case of disease-induced death, it is shown that the backward bifurcation also occurs. Moreover, there is no limit cycle under some conditions, and the subcritical Hopf bifurcation occurs under another conditions. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 10571143, 30770555)     

一类带有阶段结构的传染病模型的定性分析

通过假设被感染者恢复后不具有免疫力,但易感性不同于未被感染过的易感者,建立了一类带有双线性传染率的传染病模型,发现该模型对一定参数会发生后向分支,找到了相应的阈值,完整分析了该模型的动力学性态.     

Dynamical analysis of age-structured pertussis model with covert infection

An age-structured pertussis model with covert infection is proposed to understand the effect of covert infection on the recurrence of pertussis. It is found that vaccination only for young children does not have a decisive effect on whooping cough control. It is shown that although the vaccine coverage rate is relatively high, the model has a backward bifurcation for a larger covert infection rate. In addition, sufficient conditions for the disease-free steady state to be globally asymptotically stable are obtained.     

Impacts of TV and radio advertisements on the dynamics of an infectious disease: A modeling study

TV and radio advertisements are widely acknowledged as important interventions in raising issues of public health care and play promising role to control the infection through propagating awareness among the individuals. In this paper, a nonlinear susceptible‐infected‐susceptible (SIS) model is proposed and analyzed to see the impacts of TV and radio advertisements on the spread of influenza epidemic. In the model formulation, it is assumed that the susceptible individuals contract infection through the direct contact with infected individuals. The information regarding the protection against the disease is propagated via TV and radio advertisements, and their growth rates are assumed to be proportional to the fraction of infected individuals. However, the growth rate of TV advertisements decreases with the increase in number of aware individuals. The information broadcasted through TV and radio advertisements induces behavioral changes among the susceptible individuals, and they form an isolated aware class. The epidemiological feasible equilibria, their stability properties, and direction of bifurcation are discussed. The expression for modified basic reproduction number is obtained. The model analysis shows that the dissemination rate of awareness among susceptible individuals due to TV and radio advertisements and baseline number of TV and radio advertisements have potential to reduce the epidemic peak and, thus, control the spread of infection. Further, the analytical findings are well supported through numerical simulation.     

具有饱和治疗函数与密度制约的SIS传染病模型的后向分支

讨论了一个具有饱和治疗函数以及出生率和死亡率均具有密度制约的SIS传染病模型,其中总人口的变化满足Logistic方程,治疗项采用一个连续可微的函数,描述在医疗条件有限的情况下患病者的治疗被耽误的影响.研究发现当患病者的治疗被耽误的影响较强时,模型将出现后向分支,因此基本再生数R_0=1不再是疾病是否消亡的阈值.另外还得到无病平衡点和地方平衡点全局稳定的充分条件.     

Backward bifurcation and global dynamics of an SIS epidemic model with general incidence rate and treatment

An SIS epidemic model with treatment is proposed. The incidence rate of the model, which can include the bilinear incidence rate and the standard incidence rate, is a general nonlinear incidence rate. The global dynamics of the model are studied and then we can understand the effect of the capacity for treatment. It is found that a backward bifurcation occurs and there exist bistable endemic equilibria if the capacity is low. Mathematical results suggest that decreasing the basic reproduction number is insufficient for disease eradication and improving the efficiency and capacity of treatment is important for this end.     

Dynamics analysis of a quarantine model in two patches

A new deterministic model for assessing the impact of quarantine on the transmission dynamics of a communicable disease in a two‐patch community is designed. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the imperfect nature of quarantine (in the two patches) could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. For the case when quarantined susceptible individuals do not acquire infection during quarantine, the disease‐free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Furthermore, the model has a unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium (i = 1,2) whenever the associated reproduction number for Patch i is greater than unity. The unique Patch i‐only boundary equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable whenever the invasion reproduction number of Patch 3 ? i is less than unity (and the associated reproduction number for Patch i exceeds unity). The model has at least one endemic equilibrium when its reproduction number exceeds unity (and the disease persists in both patches in this case). It is shown that adding multi‐patch dynamics to a single‐patch quarantine model (which allow the quarantine of susceptible individuals) in a single patch does not alter its quantitative dynamics (with respect to the existence and asymptotic stability of its associated equilibria as well as its backward bifurcation property). Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of an SIR epidemic model with limited medical resources revisited

The dynamics of an SIR epidemic model is explored in this paper in order to understand how the limited medical resources and their supply efficiency affect the transmission of infectious diseases. The study reveals that, with varying amount of medical resources and their supply efficiency, the target model admits both backward bifurcation and Hopf bifurcation. Sufficient criteria are established for the existence of backward bifurcation, the existence, the stability and the direction of Hopf bifurcation. The mechanism of backward bifurcation and its implication for the control of the infectious disease are also explored. Numerical simulations are presented to support and complement the theoretical findings.     

Psychological and behavioral effects in epidemiological model with imperfect vaccination compartment

The aim of this paper is to investigate the dynamic of two SEIVS models, which incorporate an imperfect vaccination compartment. In this paper, we focus on the psychological inhibition effect of vaccinated individuals and the efficacy of vaccine on the spread of disease. For the susceptible individuals, we consider the psychological inhibition effect through the nonmonotone incidence rate. We find the disease‐free and the disease persistent conditions. We also give some numerical simulations to demonstrate the effect of behavioral change of the vaccinated individuals and the efficiency of vaccine. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spread of a disease and its effect on population dynamics in an eco-epidemiological system

In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model with simple law of mass action and modified Holling type II functional response has been proposed and analyzed to understand how a disease may spread among natural populations. The proposed model is a modification of the model presented by Upadhyay et al. (2008) [1]. Existence of the equilibria and their stability analysis (linear and nonlinear) has been studied. The dynamical transitions in the model have been studied by identifying the existence of backward Hopf-bifurcations and demonstrated the period-doubling route to chaos when the death rate of predator (μ₁) and the growth rate of susceptible prey population (r) are treated as bifurcation parameters. Our studies show that the system exhibits deterministic chaos when some control parameters attain their critical values. Chaotic dynamics is depicted using the 2D parameter scans and bifurcation analysis. Possible implications of the results for disease eradication or its control are discussed.