An Automatic Model for Purchase Decisions

The paper describes a decision-making model to control the entire expenditure by Rolls-Royce Aero Engine Division with outside suppliers. The project began as an “investigation into economic order quantities”, and expanded into an automatic decision-making package for determining the size of orders to be placed on suppliers, the length of time into the future these orders should stretch, the best price break information to ask for, and the extent to which changes in demand within Rolls-Royce should be suppressed to cushion the suppliers from unnecessary fluctuations. A conservative estimate of savings which result from implementing a model of this nature is that the purchase bill is reduced by at least 5 per cent and the inventory by somewhere in the region of 15 per cent.     

水资源配置方案综合评价中的信息损失测度研究

水资源配置的多属性特征使得在方案综合评价中依据不同的聚合方法,能够获得不完全一致的方案排序结果。本文从水资源配置方案评价的决策矩阵及方案排序结果中的信息量大小入手,利用信息熵理论和斯皮尔曼等级相关系数提出衡量水资源配置方案综合评价中信息损失的香农斯皮尔曼测度。并构造由2种权重(熵权法权重、证据理论权重)与3种评价模型(简单加权法、模糊优选法、TOPSIS)组合而成的6种综合评价模型。最后,将香农斯皮尔曼测度运用到天津市水资源配置方案综合评价过程中的信息损失的衡量,并与文献中的综合评价模型所得结果进行比较。结果表明,采用证据理论权重-模糊优选评价模型所得评价结果的绝对信息损失和相对信息损失最小。通过水资源配置方案综合评价中的信息损失测度研究,能够使得水资源配置方案综合评价过程更加透明,并为决策部门选取理想的水资源配置方案综合评价方法提供决策支持。     

图书馆图书供应商选择的PROMETHEE/TOPSIS决策模型

图书供应商选择对图书馆各项功能的实现和未来的发展有着重要影响,这一重要问题的解决方法受到很多学者的关注。在构建图书供应商评价指标体系的基础上,提出了一种供应商选择的PROMETHEE／TOPSIS决策模型。模型通过向具有完全补偿性的TOPSIS方法中引入偏好函数,并结合摆动赋权方法,减少了决策信息的损失和扭曲,更好地反映了图书供应商间的差别。最后通过实例证明了该模型的有效性和实用性。     

不确定决策环境下绿色供应商选择方法研究

针对不确定环境下绿色供应商选择问题,提出了一种属性权重信息完全未知且属性值以区间数形式给出的多属性决策方法。基于区间数相离度概念,定义了区间数的平均差,建立属性权重计算方法——带参数的平均差极大化方法。此方法具有一定的柔性,可以通过参数来调节属性之间的差别程度。最后把该方法应用于绿色供应商选择,说明了该方法的实用性和有效性。     

An integrated FANP–MOLP for supplier evaluation and order allocation

In the face of acute global competition, supplier management is rapidly emerging as a crucial issue to any companies striving for business success and sustainable development. To optimize competitive advantages, a company should incorporate “suppliers” as an essential part of its core competencies. Supplier evaluation, the first step in supplier management, is a complex multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem, and its complexity is further aggravated if the highly important interdependence among the selection criteria is taken into consideration. The objective of this paper is to suggest a comprehensive decision method for identifying top suppliers by considering the effects of interdependence among the selection criteria, as well as to achieve optimal allocation of orders among the selected suppliers.     

应急不完全信息环境下的混合多属性协同决策方法

科学的应急救援协同决策理论方法,不但能使应急管理系统更好地发挥作用,而且能使政府及公众的应急救援行为更加规范和有序.为此,针对应急环境下决策信息不完全的背景,研究构建了一类综合集成网络层次分析法(ANP)、证据理论(D-SEvidence Theory)以及改进的理想点法(TOPSIS)的混合多属性应急协同决策方法.其中ANP用于处理应急救援方案非独立和相互联系的评价指标权重的确立,D-S Theory用于处理不完全信息条件下多个部门对应急救援候选方案的不同评价信息融合,改进的理想点法(TOPSIS)则用于最终候选应急救援方案的排序.研究结果表明,所提出的混合多属性协同决策方法不仅在理论上有所集成创新,而且在实际应用中可以有效解决应急环境下多部门或多环节协同决策问题.     

随机产出下考虑小微供应商成本利润率的供应链决策研究

小微型供应商由于产能、资金等限制,其目标可能是实现成本利润率最优,从而提高企业生存能力。基于该观察,区别于多数文献采用利润最优决策准则,本文研究由小微供应商和零售商组成的单周期供应链决策问题。小微供应商面临产出随机风险,以成本利润率最大为目标进行产能决策,零售商以利润最大为目标确定最优订购量。研究发现小微供应商的成本利润率受到自身成本偏重系数以及零售商盈利能力的共同影响,将出现亏损、合理盈利、超额盈利三种情况。并且,零售商采取不同订货策略也会对小微供应商盈利情况产生差异影响。保守(积极)订货策略下,零售商是否盈利取决于自身单位净利润能否弥补单位缺货损失(自身可盈利空间)。本文研究融合现实普遍存在的产出随机问题,为小微供应商和其他供应链成员的产能/订购决策问题提供有益的管理启示。     

Fuzzy measures of supplier evaluation under lean concepts

Supplier evaluation is a multiple attribute decision-making (MADM) problem involving a mixture of qualitative and quantitative attributes. Some mathematical programming techniques have difficulty in dealing with the qualitative attributes that are not easy to measure but very important in supplier evaluation. Fuzzy set theory is useful whenever variables defining a complex and vague system can neither be quantitatively defined nor assigned very precise measures, but are described by linguistic values. This paper presents a procedure for supplier evaluation by incorporating fuzzy set theory into the evaluation process to handle the qualitative attributes in the problem. A mathematical ranking method is used to convert the qualitative attributes into crisp scores. All the quantitative and qualitative performance measures are normalized and then using the proposed model, data are integrated into a single score to rank suppliers. The model application is demonstrated through two previously reported data sets under lean philosophy.     

基于概率语言术语集改进TODIM法的应急物流供应商评价研究

为了科学合理地评价应急物流供应商,提出了一种基于概论语言术语集改进TODIM法的评价方法。针对应急物流的特点,从快速响应时间、物资质量、成本控制、企业服务和企业内外部条件五个维度,构建应急物流供应商评价指标体系;在此基础上,为充分反映专家的偏好和评价信息,将概率语言术语集与TODIM方法相结合,构建基于改进TODIM方法的评价模型,对应急物流供应商进行评价;最后,通过实例分析验证该方法的可行性与有效性。     

基于中智犹豫模糊语言优先QUALIFLEX方法的绿色供应商选择

针对绿色供应商选择过程中,评价指标数量明显超过可供选择的供应商数量且指标之间存在优序关系等特点,提出了基于中智犹豫模糊语言优先QUALIFLEX方法的绿色供应商选择方法.首先,利用中智犹豫模糊语言表征评价信息和评价权重;其次,构造优先矩阵对指标权重做精确化处理,考虑到决策者对指标的要求和指标之间的优序关系,对指标权重进行修订;然后,提出改进的中智犹豫模糊语言余弦距离测度,在此基础上借助QUALIFLEX方法确定备选供应商的最终排序;最后,利用化学制药企业选择原料供应商的案例验证了所提方法的有效性.     

基于证据推理的直觉模糊多属性群决策方法

针对属性值为直觉模糊数的多属性群决策问题,提出了一种证据推理的扩展方法。首先,在考虑主观因素与客观因素的基础上运用直觉模糊熵法计算出属性及专家的综合权重。其次,提出一种基于证据推理的直觉模糊信息融合方法,该方法可以避免由于评价值的隶属度为0而导致的信息丢失现象,弥补了现有直觉模糊信息融合方法存在的不足。在此基础上,集结评价信息并按照备选方案与理想方案的相对贴近度对备选方案进行比选。最后,运用实例验证了所提方法的有效性。     

Impact of supply base heterogeneity in electronic markets

Internet based marketplaces have enabled industrial buyers to locate suppliers from geographically diverse locations. This has resulted in increased variations in certain supplier parameters such as capacity and cost among the participating suppliers. However, the impact of this increased heterogeneity on the procurement practices are not well understood. In this paper we consider three supplier parameters that can affect the price the buyer pays and the number of suppliers that the buyer will select for award of contract. These attributes are capacity, production cost and demand for supplier’s capacity. We show how these parameters impact the price that a supplier quotes. We also show how the buyer will determine the optimum number of suppliers using a reverse auction mechanism when he does not have perfect knowledge of the suppliers’ parameters. Our model suggests that buyers need to adjust some of the input parameters while procuring capacity from a heterogeneous supply base. For instance, buyers need to pre-qualify more suppliers if the supply base has greater heterogeneity.     

公路工程评标中的模糊一致矩阵方法

公路工程评标是一项多目标的复杂决策过程,在公路工程多方案分析评价的层次分析决策中应用模糊一致矩阵方法,有效的避开了模糊综合评判中隶属度确定问题.为公路工程评价方案决策这类定性与定量因素并存、正相关与负相关混杂的多因素、多层次评价提供了另一类有效的评判方法,通过公路工程评标方案的分析得到公路工程方案的排序结果,实例分析证明模糊一致矩阵方法是可行的.     

A complex multi-attribute large-group PLS decision-making method in the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy environment

In the complex multi-attribute large-group decision-making (CMALGDM) problems in interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy (IVIF) environment, attributes of the alternatives are often stratified and correlated. This paper proposes a decision-making method for these problems based on partial least squares (PLS) path modelling, which not only fully exploits the decision information of decision makers (DMs), but also effectively addresses the relativity problem in the decision attributes and objectively assigned weights to the primary decision attributes (i.e., “latent variables for decision making”). The method can be outlined in three steps. First, a two-stage method is proposed to transform the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number (IVIFN) samples into single-valued samples. In this step, an improved C-OWA operator is first given to transform the IVIFN samples into intuitionistic fuzzy number (IFN) samples, which makes the preference information of the DMs more objectively aggregated. Then a proposed membership-based method is applied to reduce the information loss and transform the IFN samples into single-valued samples. Second, the estimated values and weights of the “latent variables for decision-making” are obtained by means of the PLS path modelling algorithm. Finally, a multi-alternative sorting method is devised in accordance with the estimated values and weights. An example is provided to illustrate the proposed technique and evaluate its feasibility and validity.     

Supplier selection using axiomatic fuzzy set and TOPSIS methodology in supply chain management

The current paper presents a comprehensive methodology for supplier selection. In the first stage, the linguistic values expressed as trapezoidal fuzzy numbers are used to assess the weights of the criteria. The Axiomatic Fuzzy Set clustering (AFS) method, which handles ambiguity and fuzziness in the supplier selection problem effectively, is applied to cluster the suppliers and evaluate each potential supplier that aims at obtaining initial supplier ranking. In the second stage, the Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) model is constructed to determine the weight of various quantitative and qualitative criteria. To address multiple decision criteria in supplier ranking, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is employed to select the final suppliers. A numerical example composed of 30 suppliers and 6 criteria is studied, and the experimental results show that the proposed evaluation framework is suitable for supplier selection decisions even with the dependent criteria/attributes.     

基于最优让步均衡协调策略的供应链差价补偿机制研究

制造商为了激励零售商订购更多数量的产品,会在产品零售价下调时提供给零售商一定的补偿,如何制定最优补偿机制是提高供应链收益的关键问题.为此,建立了两阶段销售差价补偿机制下制造商与零售商的博弈模型,分析了纳什均衡解和Stackelberg均衡解下制造商对零售商的差价补偿机制的决策行为,导出了在最优让步均衡策略下差价补偿机制...     

Multi-criteria supplier segmentation using a fuzzy preference relations based AHP

One of the strategic activities of a firm is supplier segmentation, whereby a firm creates groups of suppliers to handle them differently. Existing literature provides several typologies of suppliers, each of which uses different dimensions/variables. In this paper, different typologies are combined by distinguishing two overarching dimensions, the capabilities and the willingness of suppliers to cooperate with a particular firm. These dimensions cover almost all the existing supplier segmentation criteria mentioned in existing literature. For each particular situation, these dimensions can be specified using a multi-criteria decision-making method. A methodology is proposed that includes a fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) which uses fuzzy preference relations to incorporate the ambiguities and uncertainties that usually exist in human judgment. The proposed methodology is used to segment the suppliers of a broiler company. The result is a segmentation of suppliers based on two aggregated dimensions. Finally some strategies to handle different segments are discussed and concluding remarks and suggestions for future research are provided.     

基于二元语义的犹豫模糊语言决策方法

当决策者在给出语言评价信息而表示出犹豫时,决策信息更适合用犹豫模糊语言术语集表达。为了减少语言决策过程中信息的丢失,得到较精准的评价结果,本文提出基于二元语义的犹豫模糊语言决策方法。首先定义了犹豫模糊二元语义集、犹豫模糊二元语义集的均值函数、方差函数及其集结算子,然后用集结算子求出各方案的综合评价值,通过犹豫模糊二元语义的均值函数和方差函数确定方案排序。最后通过实例说明了该方法的实用性和有效性。     

A knowledge-based system for tactical situation assessment

To perform tactical situation assessment effectively, a system must be capable of performing tactical information integration, interpretation, and threat evaluation. This paper describes a prototype system for naval surface warfare which incorporates a human operator for integration, an artificial intelligence-based subsystem for interpretation, and an operations research-based system for evaluation. The system provides the operator with an interactive environment for displaying and managing tactical information and tools for interpreting and evaluating it.The opinions expressed in this paper are those of the author, are not official, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Navy Department.     

考虑可信度的犹豫模糊多属性决策方法研究

为深入研究犹豫环境下多属性决策问题,提高决策的科学性和准确性,本文在已有研究成果的基础上,充分考虑犹豫模糊集中隶属度函数的差异性对决策结果的影响。论文引入了专家可信度的思想对犹豫模糊信息进行集成,将一组数值转化为一个数值,进而实现犹豫模糊信息的对比研究,以此构建了一种考虑可信度的犹豫模糊多属性决策方法。最后,论文以汽车零部件供应商选择问题为例,验证了该方法的有效性。