Dynamics of human resource and knowledge management

Recent transitions from the industrial to knowledge economy suggest an immediate and wholesale retraining scenario so that many organisations can remain at the cutting edge of technology. The dynamics of the job market is creating a challenge for many organisations in recruiting and retaining their core staff. In fact, many companies are in fear of losing critical business knowledge when their employees leave. In this paper, systems dynamics is employed to illustrate the relationship between recruitment, training, skills, and knowledge in a causal loop form. Strategies for human resource management are developed by conducting time-based dynamic analysis. We anticipate that systems dynamics modelling would help organisations to devise efficient human resource management strategies.     

基于价值链的科技企业孵化器核心竞争力评价研究

基于价值链理论,分析了科技企业孵化器核心竞争力评价机理,得出科技企业孵化器核心竞争力包括战略定位能力、种子选择能力、智能移植能力、成长催化能力和服务增值能力,在此基础上构建了科技企业孵化器的评价指标体系,并结合108份有效调研问卷,利用验证性分析对科技企业孵化器的核心竞争力模型进行了实证分析,结果表明:指标体系构建基本合理,种子选择能力的因子负荷最大、其次为战略定位能力和成长催化能力,智能移植能力和服务增值能力的负荷因子相对较小.     

Optimal reinsurance in a compound Poisson risk model with dependence

This paper considers the problem of optimal reinsurance in a compound Poisson risk model with dependent classes of insurance business. It is assumed that the risk process in each class follows a compound Poisson process, and that all classes are correlated due to the so-called thinning-dependence structure. Under the criterion of maximizing the adjustment coefficient, methods for finding the optimal reinsurance strategies are discussed for both the expected value premium principle and the variance premium principle. Numerical examples are also provided to illustrate the impact of the model parameters on the optimal reinsurance strategies.     

Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency

Complex economic dynamics is studied by a forced oscillator model of business cycles. The technique of numerical modeling is applied to characterize the fundamental properties of complex economic systems which exhibit multiscale and multistability behaviors, as well as coexistence of order and chaos. In particular, we focus on the dynamics and structure of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles within a periodic window of the bifurcation diagram, at the onset of a saddle-node bifurcation and of an attractor merging crisis, and in the chaotic regions associated with type-I intermittency and crisis-induced intermittency, in non-linear economic cycles. Inside a periodic window, chaotic saddles are responsible for the transient motion preceding convergence to a periodic or a chaotic attractor. The links between chaotic saddles, crisis and intermittency in complex economic dynamics are discussed. We show that a chaotic attractor is composed of chaotic saddles and unstable periodic orbits located in the gap regions of chaotic saddles. Non-linear modeling of economic chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency can improve our understanding of the dynamics of financial intermittency observed in stock market and foreign exchange market. Characterization of the complex dynamics of economic systems is a powerful tool for pattern recognition and forecasting of business and financial cycles, as well as for optimization of management strategy and decision technology.     

SIMULATIONS TO INVESTIGATE ANIMAL MOVEMENT EFFECTS ON POPULATION DYNAMICS

Abstract Movement of organisms will influence their ecology and demographics. Animal movements are often characterized by path structures with directional persistence. The extent to which this impacts on population dynamics is investigated in this paper using theoretical simulations. The effects of different movement strategies on variations in visits to individual patches across a forage area are discussed. Variations in resource biomass across patches are shown to persist after long simulations. Consumer resource equations with movement are used to show how heterogeneity in resources caused by these variations can affect global population dynamics. With directional movements (random or persistent), dynamics change from limit cycles to stable equilibrium solutions. It is suggested that this effect has the potential to increase survival because perturbations from unforeseen factors (like drought) are less likely to crash populations.     

Governing the local networks in Indian agrarian societies—an MAS perspective

In a networked society, governing advocacy groups and networks through decentralized systems of policy implementation has been the interest of governance network literature. This paper addresses the topic of governing networks in the context of Indian agrarian societies by taking the case example of a welfare scheme for the Indian rural poor. We explore context-specific regulatory dynamics through the situated agent based architectural framework. The effects of various regulatory strategies that can be adopted by governing node are tested under various action arenas through experimental design. Results show the impact of regulatory strategies on the resource dependencies and asymmetries in the network relationships. This indicates that the optimal feasible regulatory strategy in networked society is institutionally rational and is context dependent. Further, we show that situated MAS architecture is a natural fit for institutional understanding of the dynamics (Ostrom et al. in Rules, games, and common-pool resources, 1994).     

An analytical methodology for assessment of smart monitoring impact on future electric power distribution system reliability

Smart grid is referred to a modernized power grid which can mitigate fault detection and allow self‐healing of the system without the intervention of operators. This article proposes an innovative analytical formulation using Markov method to evaluate electric power distribution system reliability in smart grids, which incorporates the impact of smart monitoring on the overall system reliability. An accurate reliability model of the main network components and the communication infrastructure have been also considered in the methodology. The proposed approach was applied to a well‐known test bed (Roy Billinton Test System) and various reliability case studies with monitoring provision and monitoring deficiency are analyzed. This article involves the developing possibilities of communication technologies and next‐generation control systems of the entire smart network based on the real‐time monitoring and modern control system to achieve a reliable, economical, safe, and high efficiency of electricity. The implementations indicate that using an appropriate set of the smart grid monitoring devices for power system components can virtually influence all the reliability indices although the amount of improvement varies between techniques. The proposed approach determined that smart monitoring for which components of the electric power distribution systems are tailored and deduce to major economical benefits. The described approach also reveals which reliability indices drastically influenced using monitoring. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity 21: 99–113, 2015     

Management science in the era of smart consumer products: challenges and research perspectives

Smart products not only provide novel functionalities, but also may establish new business models, markets, or distribution channels, strengthen relationships with consumers, and/or add smart remote services. While many technical obstacles of such products have already been overcome, the broad market dissemination of smart products still poses some vital managerial challenges for decision makers. In this paper, we outline the technical potential and future trends of smart consumer products, discuss economic challenges in four scopes, namely, preference-based new product development, market analysis, supply chain design, and industry development, and, in particular, we highlight research perspectives for management science in this promising field.     

Forecasting business cycle with chaotic time series based on neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions

This study presents a forecasting model of cyclical fluctuations of the economy based on the time delay coordinate embedding method. The model uses a neuro-fuzzy network called neural network with weighted fuzzy membership functions (NEWFM). The preprocessed time series of the leading composite index using the time delay coordinate embedding method are used as input data to the NEWFM to forecast the business cycle. A comparative study is conducted using other methods based on wavelet transform and Principal Component Analysis for the performance comparison. The forecasting results are tested using a linear regression analysis to compare the approximation of the input data against the target class, gross domestic product (GDP). The chaos based model captures nonlinear dynamics and interactions within the system, which other two models ignore. The test results demonstrated that chaos based method significantly improved the prediction capability, thereby demonstrating superior performance to the other methods.     

Management attitudes,learning and scale in successful diversification: a dynamic and behavioural resource system view

The paper presents a system dynamics model to examine an enduring puzzle of corporate strategy. Why do extensive empirical studies continue to show a weak relationship between diversification and performance, despite persuasive arguments suggesting performance should improve? And why do well-intentioned executives seemingly turn a blind eye to the available empirical and anecdotal evidence that diversification rarely pays-off? Some diversification strategies go seriously wrong. Could it be that researchers and executives are misled by the complexity of dynamic multi-business investment decisions? The model draws on case material describing Goodyear’s move out of its core tyre business into oil and gas in the late 1980s. Two versions of the model compare the fortunes and performance of hypothetical twin firms, FocusCo and DiversiCo, each facing an identical downturn in their traditional core business, and starting with identical levels of strategic resources. FocusCo invests strictly in its core business while DiversiCo has the option to invest in non-core business if managers view the performance of the core to be unsatisfactory. Simulations show how DiversiCo's success (relative to FocusCo) depends both on business fundamentals (real profitability and relative scale of the core and non-core) and behavioural traits of typical corporate investment policy covering target setting, managers' expectations, limited foresight, prior beliefs, optimism, confidence and learning style. There are some surprises such as the very long time delay in recognising clear winners, and counterproductive effects on performance of seemingly positive traits such as optimism and fast learning. The paper ends with comments on the implications of the results for practice and research.     

云计算在智能电网中的应用研究

随着现代电网规模的不断扩大,现有的电力系统网络越来越无法满足现代化建设发展的需求,具备自愈、互动、兼容等优点的智能电网成为未来电网的发展趋势.同时,智能电网概念的提出和逐步实现对电力系统的计算和存储能力提出了越来越高的要求.基于云计算技术并结合电力网络系统的特点,提出电力网络系统智能云的概念,在此基础上规划设计了电力系统智能云的体系结构并分析了电力系统智能云实现的关键技术.电力网络系统智能云技术的应用,能够在现有基础资源基本不变的情况下,大大提高电力网络系统的计算和存储能力,实现电力网络系统智能化、信息化和分级化的互动管理,减少电网建设投资,为构建现代化智能电网系统提供了明确的思路和研究方向.     

Second-order game problem: Decision dynamics in gaming phenomena

The paradigm of decision dynamics (Ref. 1) is used to describe the decision dynamics involving more than one decision-maker. The framework supplied in this paper is different from traditional game theory or differential games. Traditional simplicity assumptions are replaced by a more complicated, but more realistic, setting. Although many mathematically beautiful results in traditional game theory or differential games have disappeared in second-order games, the more realistic setting of the latter does make it easier for the decision-makers to find agood decision. Concepts of time optimality and time stability, and their necessary and/or sufficient conditions are described. Unconventional concepts of strategies and uncertainty involved in gaming phenomena are discussed. A highlight of the paper is a systematic discussion on reframing tactics of gaming situations, which do not exist in the context of traditional game theory or differential games. Various research topics are discussed at the end of the paper.     

Analysis and stability of consensus in networked control systems

In this paper, the consensus problem in networks of integrators is investigated. After recalling the classical diffusive protocol, we present in a unified framework some results on the rate of convergence previously presented in the literature. Then, we introduce two switching communication protocols, one based on a switching coupling law between neighboring nodes, the other on the conditional activation of links in the network. We show that the former protocol induces the monotonicity of each system in the network, enhancing the speed of convergence to consensus. Moreover, adopting this novel protocol, we are able to control the network, steering the nodes’ dynamics to a desired consensus value. The aim of the latter protocol is instead to select adaptively the activation of the edges of the network, in accordance with the dynamics of the network. After showing the effectiveness of both approaches through numerical simulations, the stability properties of these protocols are discussed.     

有脉冲影响的κ-值逻辑网络的不动点与稳定性

讨论了有脉冲影响的κ-值逻辑网络的不动点及稳定性问题.利用矩阵的半张量积方法,首先将有脉冲影响的κ-值逻辑网络转化成基于矩阵的离散时间动态系统.然后,给出一点是系统不动点的充要条件.最后,给出了两种不同类型控制下系统稳定的充要条件.     

Analysis of complex network performance and heuristic node removal strategies

Removing important nodes from complex networks is a great challenge in fighting against criminal organizations and preventing disease outbreaks. Six network performance metrics, including four new metrics, are applied to quantify networks’ diffusion speed, diffusion scale, homogeneity, and diameter. In order to efficiently identify nodes whose removal maximally destroys a network, i.e., minimizes network performance, ten structured heuristic node removal strategies are designed using different node centrality metrics including degree, betweenness, reciprocal closeness, complement-derived closeness, and eigenvector centrality. These strategies are applied to remove nodes from the September 11, 2001 hijackers’ network, and their performance are compared to that of a random strategy, which removes randomly selected nodes, and the locally optimal solution (LOS), which removes nodes to minimize network performance at each step. The computational complexity of the 11 strategies and LOS is also analyzed. Results show that the node removal strategies using degree and betweenness centralities are more efficient than other strategies.     

企业联盟发展的力学分析与联盟策略

企业联盟能通过资源共享促进企业可持续竞争优势形成和企业成长。企业联盟成长包括联盟运行和联盟发展两个维度,企业联盟发展受联盟力的影响,而联盟企业、联盟力及其作用效果满足经典力学理论,据此构建企业联盟发展的力学模型,并通过对其公式推导,得到企业联盟发展的四大定理——"偏利共生"定理、"宇称不对称"定理、"大数中心"定理和"动态自稳定"定理及相关推论,而算例分析也对定理进行了验证,最后,相应提出了企业联盟发展的联盟网络、领先跟随、动态平衡与选择培育策略。     

Optimal evacuation planning using staging and routing

Evacuation is an important disaster management tool. Evacuating a large region by automobile (the most commonly used mode) is a difficult task, especially as high levels of traffic congestion often form. This paper studies the use of demand-based strategies, specifically, the staging and routing of evacuees. These strategies attempt to manage demand in order to reduce or eliminate congestion. A strategic mixed-integer programming planning model that accounts for evacuation dynamics and congestion is used to study these strategies. The strategies adopted incorporate different evacuee types based on destination requirements and shelter capacity restrictions. The main objective studied is to minimize the network clearance time. We examine the structure of optimal strategies, yielding insights into the use of staging and routing in evacuation management. These insights are then used to develop effective solution procedures. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed solution technique, we provide computational experience using a large realistic example based on Virginia Beach.     

One- and two-cluster synchronized dynamics of non-diffusively coupled Tchebycheff map networks

We use the master stability formalism to discuss one- and two-cluster synchronization of coupled Tchebycheff map networks. For diffusively coupled map systems, the one-cluster synchronized dynamics is given by the behaviour of the individual maps, and the coupling only determines the stability of the coherent state. For the case of non-diffusive coupling and for two-cluster synchronization, the synchronized dynamics on networks is different from the behaviour of the single individual map. Depending on the coupling, we study numerically the characteristics of various forms of the resulting synchronized dynamics. The stability properties of the respective one-cluster synchronized states are discussed for arbitrary network structures. For the case of two-cluster synchronization on bipartite networks we also present analytical expressions for fixed points and zig-zag patterns, and explicitly determine the linear stability of these orbits for the special case of ring-networks.     

Weakness and improvement on Wang–Li–Tie’s user-friendly remote authentication scheme

In an open network environment, the remote authentication scheme using smart cards is a very practical solution to validate the legitimacy of a remote user. In 2003, Wu and Chieu presented a user-friendly remote authentication scheme using smart cards. Recently, Wang, Li, and Tie found that Wu–Chieu’s scheme is vulnerable to the forged login attack, and then presented an improvement to eliminate this vulnerability. In our opinion, the smart card plays an important role in those schemes. Therefore, we demonstrate that Wang–Li–Tie’s scheme is not secure under the smart card loss assumption. If an adversary obtains a legal user’s smart card even without the user’s corresponding password, he can easily use it to impersonate the user to pass the server’s authentication. We further propose an improved scheme to overcome this abuse of the smart card.     

On the relationship between uniqueness and stability in sum-aggregative,symmetric and general differentiable games

This article explores the relationship between uniqueness and stability in differentiable regular games, with a major focus on the important classes of sum-aggregative, two-player and symmetric games. We consider three types of popular dynamics, continuous-time gradient dynamics as well as continuous- and discrete-time best-reply dynamics, and include aggregate-taking behavior as a non-strategic behavioral variant. We show that while in general games stability conditions are only sufficient for uniqueness, they are likely to be necessary as well in models with sum-aggregative or symmetric payoff functions. In particular, a unique equilibrium always verifies the stability conditions of all dynamics if strategies are equilibrium complements, and this also holds for both continuous-time dynamics if strategies are equilibrium substitutes with bounded slopes. These findings extend to the case of aggregate-taking equilibria. We further analyze the stability relations between the various dynamics, and demonstrate that the restrictive nature of the discrete dynamics originates from simultaneity of adjustments. Asynchronous decisions or heterogeneous forward thinking may stabilize the adjustment process.